Archives for October 2006

Week #8 – Indiana – Open Thread

OSU FootballWelcome to another Open Thread, where we get hyped up about this week’s opponent, look at strengths and weaknesses, we look at match-ups, which ones will give the Buckeyes trouble, which ones we can exploit, and … wait a minute, we’re playing Indiana this week? Okay, nevermind about weaknesses and matchups. Let’s talk about more important things, like where the heck am I going to watch this game?!

If you are interested in looking at Indiana in detail, Buckeye Planet and The O-Zone are always great places to start. Sure, Indiana just had a HUGE upset (for them) over Iowa, but Keith reminds us that Iowa wasn’t exactly 100% last week. Good for Indiana, but come on now. The Glenville Tarblooders could have beaten that injured Iowa team.

Let’s be perfectly honest: there’s not a snowball’s chance Indiana comes into the ‘Shoe and does anything but lose by five touchdowns. Troy Smith and Antonio Pittman are salivating right now, thinking of the numbers they are going to put up on this team. Ginn wonders if he can back-pedal a punt return and still make people miss. Pitcock and Gholston are betting who can make Kellen Lewis cry harder. Kirk Barton is discussing which side of the offensive line is prettier (no, I’m being serious)

o-line.jpg

Kirk on which side of the offensive line is better: “Me and (right guard) T. J. (Downing) are better looking than the left side. They’re younger and they’re obviously going to be very good players, but right now me and T. J. have the looks department locked down.”

I’d have to agree, they’re a couple handsome men.

So yeah, no one’s really worried, right? Vegas has us favored by 30 points. What say you?

What about the defense? How many yards do we surrender to the Hoosiers? (o/u 275)

Ted Ginn Jr, a punt, and the endzone. All in the same play?

How many TDs does Troy Smith account for? (o/u 4)

Does Laurinaitis get a pick this week?

el Kaiser’s predictions:
Score: OSU: 45 IU: 9
Defense: under, 274 yards
Ted Ginn Jr: no, but he gets one close
Troy Smith: over, 5
Laurinaitis: He returns to his thieving ways, grabbing a pick in the third quarter.

Zeke’s predictions:
Score: OSU: 41 IU: 6
Defense: under, 229 yards
Ted Ginn Jr: Yep, 2 weeks in a row
Troy Smith: under, 3
Laurinaitis: Not this week

Sylvester Yon-Rambo’s predictions:
Score: OSU: 56 IU: 0
Defense: under, 118 yards
Ted Ginn Jr: yes, He gets 2 returns for TDs
Troy Smith: over, 6
Laurinaitis: I believe he gets 1 pick and 2 FF with 1 recovery and 2.5 TFL

sportsMonkey’s predictions:
Score: OSU: 45 IU: 6
Defense: under, 175 yards
Ted Ginn Jr: If they punt to him at least three or four times, then yes, he’ll take one to the house. But I don’t think they’ll punt to him more than once or twice.
Troy Smith: 4
Laurinaitis: Yes, 1 pick. Something tells me the Little Animal will have a Butkus-like day tomorrow.

OSU/IU game to be broadcast on ONN

OSU FootballThe Ohio News Network (ONN) has reached an agreement with ESPN to rebroadcast Saturday’s OSU game against the Indiana Hoosiers.

The game will still be carried live only on ESPNU, but will be repeated in its entirety at least twice on ONN: Saturday at 11 p.m., and Sunday at 8 p.m.

It’s not a perfect solution, but ESPN is clearly throwing a bone to the several million people they were initially willing to alienate. Since all cable companies in the central Ohio area carry ONN as part of their basic cable package, it seems ESPN wasn’t willing to risk the negative publicity without having done something “magnanimous” in return.

Blogpoll Ballot, Week #8

Rank Team Delta
1 Ohio State
2 Michigan 1
3 West Virginia 1
4 Southern Cal 1
5 Texas 2
6 Louisville
7 Auburn 4
8 Tennessee
9 California
10 Florida 8
11 Notre Dame 1
12 Arkansas 1
13 Clemson 1
14 Boise State 3
15 Georgia Tech
16 Oregon 2
17 Rutgers 3
18 LSU 3
19 Nebraska 4
20 Wisconsin 4
21 Boston College 5
22 Texas A&M 4
23 Wake Forest 3
24 Missouri 5
25 Brigham Young 1

Dropped Out: Iowa (#14), Georgia (#16), Virginia Tech (#22), Oklahoma (#25).

Again many games were watched. Again I think Sylvester-Yon Rambo may have watched all of them.

Not much to say here — I feel dirty having Texas A&M and Wake Forest in the top 25, but there they are.

Now that the SEC is done beating up on each other, it’s time for the Big East to cannibalize itself. It could happen!

Those darn five SEC teams (LSU/Auburn/Florida/Arkansas/Tennessee) could probably beat each other on any given day. What a group. I’m not saying the SEC is the best conference in the league, but without question it has the most parity. (sportsMonkey)

When 38-7 is better than 31-13

OSU FootballThe folks over at the M-Zone have posted an interesting article on the inherent faults in using score to determine rankings.

They argue that, to a superficial poll voter, UM’s 17-10 victory over Penn St. “looks” worse than OSU’s 28-6 victory over the same team, even though UM played a more thorough game against the Lions than OSU did. I believe they have a valid point on the rankings issue.

However, comparing OSU to UM by their performances against Penn St. is comparing apples to oranges. The OSU/PSU matchup occurred during a mini monsoon. Over half an inch of rain fell during the game, mixed with 24 mph winds. Not exactly conducive to OSU’s spread offense! Something else to consider is that UM didn’t play against Morelli for a full game. Who knows what might have transpired if Morelli had been behind center, during PSU’s fourth-quarter rally?

Instead, an “apples to apples” comparison of OSU/UM should use the Spartans as the common opponent. Both teams have a long history of tough, close games against MSU. The weather was a non-factor for both games. And, both games occurred in back-to-back weeks for Sparty. The only major difference was that UM had the game at home, while OSU travelled to East Lansing. Other than that, it’s a pretty fair comparison.

So, with that in mind, here are some relevant stats:

Offenses vs. MSU defense

OSU’s offense rolled up 421 yards, UM got 351. Also, the Buckeyes got their standard four offensive touchdowns. Carr’s offense was credited with four TDs, but for the purposes of comparing OSU and UM, we can all agree that UM only managed three “real” TDs (no, it’s not a touchdown when you catch the ball and half your body lands out of bounds). OSU rushed for 182 yards, UM for 211. Smith passed for 234 yards at 68.2%; Henne, 140 yards at 64.7%.
— Advantage: OSU —

Defenses vs. MSU offense

Both allowed ~60 yards rushing (UM 60, OSU 63), but UM’s pass defense was exploited for over 250 yards. As a result, UM allowed a total of 312 yards, while OSU allowed 198. The Bucks forced eight punts; the Wolverines forced four.
— Advantage: OSU —

Special teams vs MSU

Both teams went 1 for 1 on FGs, but TGII returned another punt for an OSU TD.
— Advantage: OSU —

In summary, OSU played a much more impressive game against the Spartans than Michigan did. UM was impressive against MSU, but it wasn’t the utter domination that the Bucks employed the following week. Also, it’s worth repeating again that UM had the Spartans at home, a luxury that OSU did not have.

It’s also worth noting that Michigan’s earlier game against the Gophers also revealed some weaknesses in the UM defense and game plan. Big Blue gave up more rushing yards against the Gophers than all of their previous opponents combined, and Payne had a big day against the UM secondary. Most importantly, though, was Carr’s refusal to put Minnesota away, which allowed Minnesota to rally late in the game. (Yet another team that UM has allowed to rally in the fourth quarter!)

IMHO, UM is one of the three most consistent teams in the country, along with OSU and Texas. UM has shown itself to be beatable, though. The rushing defense is among the best, but hasn’t yet played against a team that moves the pocket, has a mobile QB, or has a speedy “scatback” type of tailback. Also, the secondary is giving up way too many yards (they’re 74th in pass defense).

To prove my point, consider the following question: Would fans of Big Blue feel confident heading into a fourth quarter tied with an Iowa or Ohio State? As an OSU fan, I know I would. What happens when Michigan plays a team that has success against Hart? (Yes, it will happen sometime.) Would fans feel confident putting the game into Henne’s hands? The 50% CPR performance he put up against PSU is not enough to cut it against a good defense, and definitely not good enough to challenge whatever team makes it to Glendale.


Lloyd Carr, Ron English, and Mike DeBord prepare the game plan for Ohio State.

Clearly, some of the coaching issues that were present last year are still there. Right now, UM’s talent is winning games, not the coaching. Consistency from the defensive front four and from Hart is what’s currently keeping the UM season alive, but Carr and his assistants are making the same mistakes all over again. If I was a UM fan, I’d worry about what will happen when the team encounters a defense that can corral Hart, or that has no problem moving the pocket for the entire game.

Plus, keep in mind that Carr hasn’t had any of his regular-as-clockwork “big chokes” yet… which should make any UM fan nervous enough. The longer they take to happen, the more likely they’ll happen against the good teams UM will face at the end of the season.

OSU/MSU – Semi-live Update

End of the first half
I think I just heard Bob Griese say that the reason Michigan State isn’t on the board is not because of Ohio State, but because of their own ineptitude. Huh? That’s simply a huge slap in the face of OSU’s defense. They can not block Quinn Pitcock, Laurinaitis is every where and I don’t think the secondary has had to make a tackle because the front-7 are so dominant.

And how nice was it to see Ted Ginn Jr take a punt to the house? That was great to see and there was no doubt he was gone after he took a few strides. Beautiful. Gonzalez has made two nice grabs. The Buckeyes are playing a great game, 24 – 0.

End of the game
Final Score: OSU: 38 MSU:7

Not a lot to udpate. A couple more touchdowns, the domination is complete. It would have been nice to see a shut-out, but that’s tough to do when you’ve got your third stringers in there. Nevertheless, this was no trap game. Ohio State was never on “upset alert.” This game was never in doubt, even after Beanie’s fumble in the first quarter. Troy padded his Heisman resume with another “Heisman-esque” touchdown pass to Robiskie with a Spartan defender biting at his ankles. The guy never seems rushed, never harried. Can’t say enough about the guy.

So now the downhill roll to November 18th officially starts. Next week welcomes Indiana to the show. IU is coming off a HUGE upset of Iowa, but there’s no way they come into the ‘Shoe and do that to the Buckeyes. Ohio State will be ready.

Week #7 – Michigan State – Open Thread

After dispatching with Bowling Green, OSU turns its eyes back on to the Big Ten. Are they looking ahead to the showdown in November? What can we expect from the train-wreck that is Michigan State? WhiteDawg at Double Duece has a preview with some good links. Tony Gerdman’s preview is up at The O-Zone and Buckeye Planet has an exhaustive preview as well (complete with a cowboy who can’t stop slapping himself).

And what about previous upsets that MSU has unexpectedly thrown on OSU? I was there, in the Horseshoe, in 1998. I’ve never spoken of the horrors I saw that day, and never will. I’ll never forget the feeling, though. It was a strange feeling to be surrounded by 90k+ people and hear a pin drop. But that ain’t happening this year. This Buckeye team is better coached and just as talented as the ’98 squad. The ’98 MSU team was coached by Nick Saban, not the unpredictable John L. I am predicting a big win in East Lansing. The dogs will not be called off this weekend.

Vegas has the line at 14 points. I thought it would be more than that. Do they know something we don’t? Maybe since the Buckeyes didn’t cover the spread last week (after covering it the first five weeks) they’re a little gun shy. What say you?

What about these questions:

Last week was the first game since early 2005 that the Buckeyes didn’t beat the spread. Will OSU ‘return to form’ by beating the spread again? O/U: 14 pts

In the 2005 OSU/MSU matchup, Drew Stanton was sacked 12 times. How many sacks does the OSU defense get this week? O/U: 6

Troy Smith is set to break the Big Ten record for career QB rating. What will Troy Smith’s completion percentage be? O/U: 72%

Will Ray Small see the endzone again this week? O/U: 1

el Kaiser’s predictions:
Final Score: OSU: 42 MSU: 6 (I see a butt-whipping happening tomorrow)
Spread: Waaaay over, 36
No. of Sacks: over, 9 (Pittcock makes up for Patterson missing a game a dedicates to sacks to him)
Troy’s completion %: under, 67%
Ray Small will see the end zone again. Twice (over)

sportsMonkey’s predictions:
Final Score: OSU, 38 – 10
Spread: Over, 28 pts.
No. of Sacks: Under, 5
CMP %: Under, 69%
Ray Small TDs: Even, 1

Zeke’s predictions:
Final Score: OSU: 31 MSU: 13
Spread: Over, 18 pts.
No. of Sacks: Over, 7
Troy’s completion %: Over, 80%
Ray Small will see the end zone again. Under, 0

Sylvester Yon-Rambo predictions:
Final Score: OSU: 23 MSU: 21
Spread: Under, 2 pts.
No. of Sacks: Under, 3
Troy’s completion %: Under, 53%
Ray Small will see the end zone again. Under, 0
I dont see us playing very well tomorrow. It will be very cold and there will be a lot snow on the ground and probably during the game as well. I cant help but remember 1998 and it makes me feel sick to my stomach everytime we play MSU. I hope I am dead Wrong and EL KISER is dead Right. Go Bucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quick wrap-up of Bowling Green

There wasn’t much to say after the Bowling Green game. We came, we pretty much had our way, and we won. Our predictions, however, merit a second look:

Vegas has the line at 35 points. The Buckeyes have covered the spread each week. Do you think they do it again?
The final score was 35-7, so the Buckeyes didn’t cover the spread.

The closest prediction to the final score was the sportsMonkey. The rest of us were off

How soon do we see Zwick come in? (o/u middle of the 3rd quarter)
Again, no one had this one. Zwick came in for a series in the 2nd quarter after Troy Smith came up hobbling. Luckily it wasn’t anything major, but Zwick saw playing time a lot sooner than anone thought.

No one got this one right.

It almost seems improbable, but does Laurinaitis continue his streak and pick off another pass?
It would have been nice to see the Little Animal continue picking off passes but it wasn’t meant to be.

el Kaiser and Zeke got this one right.

Pittman will get his carries, but it’s possible the backups get more. Do Wells and Wells out-gain Pittman?
Pittman only touched the ball 12 times on Saturday, for 58 yards. Wells and Wells combined for 27 yards. Not the huge ground game we expected, but it wasn’t really necessary to run against BG.

We were all off on our yardage predictions but every but the Monkey got this one right.

The offense could potentially rack up big numbers. How many? (o/u 550)
The Buckeyes dominated the game but the offense didn’t run as smoothly as we would have liked. They racked up 387 total yards. Playing on a short field, as Zeke predicted, played a role as well.

The sportsMonkey got this one right.

Results:
el Kaiser (2-5) (3-8 overall)
Zeke (2-5) (4-8 overall)
SYR (1-5) (1-5 overall)
sportsMonkey (2-5) (2-8 overall)

I know I said I’d get the other predictions updated but I haven’t got to that yet. This weekend!

Speedy Gonzalez

OSU Football
Okay, so that title was lame. But honestly, if it’s Hispanic Heritage Month, what’s wrong with a little stereotyping, right? I mean seriously, who hasn’t seen #11 fly down the sideline and not yell “Arriba, arriba, andale, arriba!” Right? He’s fast, he’s speedy. He’s speedy Gonzalez.

Speedy

I digress.

As a fellow “Hispanic” I was surprised to find out that this month is Hispanic Heritage Month. At least that’s what ESPN is celebrating, and they’ve got a nice article (a huge, sombrero-sized hat tip goes to MotSaG contributor Sylvester-Yon Rambo for the link) on Columbus’ favorite Cuban, Anthony Gonzalez.

Anthony Gonzalez

Oh, you didn’t know he was Cuban? Join the club. I figured he was Hispanic (His last name is Gonzalez. Hello?) but I had no idea he was Cuban. Anyone that fast has to have Latin blood in him, right? I kid, I kid.

Anyway, it’s a great read about Gonzo’s family (his grandpa stormed the presedential palace with Fidel!), his love of Cuban food, and dealing with stereotypes. Something we all have to deal with, in our own ways. I’m glad to read that Gonzo handles it gracefully. I know Mrs. Kaiser always get upset when the neighborhood ladies talk bad about the Mexican landscapers. “Fricken Mexicans broke my mailbox. I know they did,” they’ll claim. Fricken Mexicans.

“Yeah, my husband’s Mexican,” Mrs. Kaiser thinks to herself, “and he’s always breaking mailboxes. It’s like a Mexican tradition.” (Yes, el Kaiser is chicano. Hence el Kaiser, not The Kaiser.)

So we all deal. I’m sure Gonzalez’s fair skin (most likely from his German mother) gives him an advantage, but he doesn’t shy away from his heritage, his roots. None of us should.

So check it out, it’s a great read. There’s also a video of Gonzo cooking his specialty, Arroz con pollo. Looks pretty tasty. I wonder if he has to follow the high altitude directions on the box?

OSU vs. Indiana on ESPNU ONLY!

Well Buckeye fans, unless you have ESPNU you will not be able to watch the Indiana game on October 21st. Click here for details.

Update: According to SYR, ESPNU is not available via Time Warner. Looks like those with out a dish are out of luck.

Blogpoll Ballot, Week #7

Rank Team Delta
1 Ohio State
2 Florida 4
3 Michigan 1
4 West Virginia 1
5 Southern Cal 2
6 Louisville 1
7 Texas 2
8 Tennessee 6
9 California 7
10 Notre Dame 2
11 Auburn 9
12 Clemson 3
13 Arkansas 13
14 Iowa 4
15 Georgia Tech 2
16 Georgia 5
17 Boise State 2
18 Oregon 8
19 Missouri 2
20 Rutgers
21 LSU 13
22 Virginia Tech
23 Nebraska
24 Wisconsin 2
25 Oklahoma 12

Dropped Out: Texas Tech (#24), Wake Forest (#25).

As a whole, we watched a lot of games. Sylvester-Yon Rambo watched all of them, I think.

A couple comments:

One of our voters didn’t include Arkansas in their top 25. See below for their reasoning. (I don’t agree, I think he should have Arkansas there, but that’s my opinion) Houston Nutt did forget West Virginia last year, so…

We actually have Michigan and Florida tied for number 2, but since that won’t work with the system, I put Florida at #2 and Michigan at #3. Alphabetical order and all…

A few comments from the other MotSaG’ers:

Arkansas’s ranking is based on how far I decided to drop Auburn. I know I the AP & Coaches Poll a team can lose and still be ranked above the team that beat them. I don’t get that logic. Since Arkansas and Auburn have the same record of 5-1, Arkansas gets ranked above Auburn in my poll even if the jump is huge. Plus I watched the whole game and Arkansas looked good. (Zeke)

After the third week in a row that USC struggled against an unranked opponent, they dropped 2 spots. Five may even be a little high, but they are still undefeated. (Zeke)

Florida is unquestionably #2 right now. They’ve beaten Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU in three of the past four weeks, and their “breather” opponents were totally destroyed. Night game at Auburn this weekend, though… so they’re still in the thick of it. If they don’t lose in the next two weeks, they’re going to Arizona in January. (sportsMonkey)

UM had a decent game against MSU, but again, it’s so hard to tell what the _real_ UM is. They haven’t played _anyone_ yet. One ranked team, and that team (ND) completely folded, so it’s difficult to judge how good UM is. I think they’re better than USC, though, so I have them ahead of the Trojans. Finally, this Saturday and next we’ll get to see UM tested. Night game at PSU, then Iowa. (sportsMonkey)

Tennessee jumped into my top five. I’m a little uncomfortable with jumps that huge, but after seeing how nearly-unstoppable Florida is, and how Tennessee’s only loss was by one point to Florida, it seemed obvious to me that the Vols would probably beat the WVU/Louisville combo, and probably Texas too. So I had to bump them up. (sportsMonkey)

I really wanted to put Arkansas in [Sure you don’t want to reconsider? -ed], I feel that a one-loss team that crushes the #2 team in the country should be ranked. I’m not sure where, though. I don’t feel right about bumping Penn St. – they lost to the #1 team in the country, and won at Minnesota last week. I guess for now, Arkansas is my #26. If UM beats JoePa this weekend, then maybe I’ll bump Arkansas up. (sportsMonkey)