OSU and Terrelle Pryor continue to claim that his early-October thigh injury was only minor. Yet, those of us who have been studying the quarterback for three years have noticed a significant dropoff in on-field performance during the last month, particularly in his rushing and scrambling ability.

Numerous times over the recent weeks, Pryor has been easily chased down from behind, or easily tripped up by light contact that he would have laughably shrugged off at any other point in his Buckeye career. Most notable was the his Boeckman-like play in the Wisconsin game. The way this year’s race for the NC game is evolving, hindsight will make that particular game so much more painful. What could have been had Wisconsin actually played against a healthy and mobile Pryor? It certainly dropped him out of Heisman contention.

Simply put, Pryor’s biggest asset – his elusiveness – simply disappeared in the 3rd quarter of the Illinois game, and didn’t start to make a return until last week at Minnesota.

The stats will tell the tale. We tabulated all of Pryor’s numbers from the season opener against Marshall to his early-3rd quarter injury against Illinois, and compared them against the numbers that followed his return in the 4th quarter of that same game to last week’s game against the Gophers. The number of quarters pre- and post-injury in which Pryor played are identical, as are nearly the overall number of snaps.

The difference is surprising:

Note the difference in YPC! The dropoff is twofold: Pryor has been sacked more often since his injury, and he’s no longer rushing for as many positive yards to make up any potential net loss.

At least he’s making up for it with increased passing numbers, right? Wrong. Overall the passing numbers have remained largely similar:

Overall, the total passing numbers are nearly the same. There is a dropoff in TD passes, but that’s it’s uncertain how much of this difference can be attributed to Tressel’s new approach of relying on Boom Herron, or with opponents respecting Pryor’s arm in reaction to his early season success. Note, however, that his accuracy has improved significantly – from 65% before the injury to over 70% afterwards. In fact, against Minnesota he hit 82%.

The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. Last week against Minnesota he not only saw the end zone for the first time in almost a half-dozen games, he also averaged 11 ypc. Clearly his performace against the Gophers seems to imply that he’s nearing full strength again. Time will tell as OSU heads into the annual November gauntlet.

Want some encouraging news? Even though Pryor’s been far less than 100%, OSU’s offense has steadily risen to #5 in FO’s S&P rankings – a much-respected predictor of offensive strength.

So it stinks craptastic donkey farts that OSU lost.

But answer honestly… is it really that big of a deal? Let’s step away from the ledge for a moment and remember how rare it is that ANY team from a competitive conference goes undefeated.

Alabama lost last week, to a team that took it on the chin this week against an unranked opponent. Same with Nebraska, to an unranked Texas team with one of the worst offenses in its history.

At least OSU had a litany of reasons (not excuses) for its loss. There were no misconceptions about this Buckeye team heading into Madison:

• Tough, ranked opponent
• OSU’s injury-ridden defense – filled with players that were listed as second- or third-string at the beginning of the season
• Worst special teams of the Tressel era
• Hobbled star quarterback, playing on what is obviously a very injured leg
• Excellently talented, deep, and senior-heavy Wisconsin team; playing at home, at night, with nothing much to lose
• Jim Bollman is still an offensive coach (zing)

Buckeye fans: would you rather be a Nebraska fan this week? It could be worse.

In all seriousness, at the beginning of the season el Kaiser and I examined the schedule and had a discussion on what was “fair” to expect out of this year’s OSU squad. I argued that nine (regular season) wins were a lock – in other words, fewer than nine wins weren’t acceptable without a coaching change or major reason why. Ten wins were considered “expected.” Eleven wins… if the team was better than usual or if the Big 10 ended up terrible (see 2006). And, of course, twelve wins for a team was historically exceptional and beat the odds.

So it’s really not that big of a deal for OSU to lose a game like this. Losing last year, to Purdue – that was unacceptable, and I’m still shocked that Gene Smith didn’t come down heavier on Tressel to make assistant changes after that game. But losing to a very good, ranked, Wisco team, on the road at night, with a banged up team – that’s gonna happen from time to time, folks. It’s perfectly acceptable to root against such a thing happening, but it’s completely unreasonable to expect for it not to happen. Not in a competitive conference.

So… “relieved”…? In a way, yes. Maybe it’s just me, but I have to admit at times I miss just enjoying college football, rather than worrying week to week whether my favorite team will perform well enough to keep or raise its ranking.

Today’s loss means OSU will have a narrower focus, a smaller list of likely scenarios with which to concern itself. As of now, the Big 10 championship is within reach, and that more modest goal suits the circumstances of this 2010 squad a bit better.

And silver-lining wise, the Big 10 now has three or four solid, tough teams that are positioning themselves nicely to represent the conference well in the postseason. And maybe Michigan, too.

So, after all this discussion, let’s talk about a team that we should REALLY feel bad for: Purdue. As if they weren’t already doomed enough for their role in last year’s fiasco, tonight’s loss just assured them of yet more unfathomable pain next week. Condolences and apologies in advance for the upcoming annihilation.

Look, it’s easy.

At this point, five games into the season, OSU is 14th in the country in rushing offense, averaging 235 yards per game. The fact that the load is being shared by at least three players is irrelevant.

As a way of explaining my point, consider this: OSU is leading the conference in TD passes. Yet the team’s best receiver (Sanzenbacher) isn’t even one of the top three receivers in the league. Why? Because those TDs are spread across 6 different receivers.

Therefore, would anyone claim that OSU has a “passing problem” because one of its WRs isn’t getting the majority of the yards and TDs? Then why would the team have a rushing problem, just because more than one back was being used successfully?

Finally, consider what happened against the Illini last Saturday. It was reported that after Pryor returned from his injury late in the 3rd quarter, Tressel pulled him from the running game for safety reasons. At the same time, Saine was either on the sideline or being used as a slot receiver. At that point, the Buckeyes went into full Tresselball mode and did nothing but rush Herron over and over again, the line kept pounding away, the offense kept converting 1st downs, milking the clock, until Boom sauntered around the corner for the backbreaking TD.

The point being, when put in a position to rely on only one back, the team marched right down the field, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, and scored with what appeared to be relative ease.

Having said that, I agree with Saine’s critics in that he’s been dropping off a bit over the last couple of weeks, particularly with what seems to be “vision.” A few times I wondered if Lydell Ross was back on the field. Hopefully, he’ll get past this small slump and improve his consistency. No matter what, though, the Bucks are deep and talented enough to keep what is obviously a solid rushing game going.

(Source: Jacory Harris’ Twitter)

Former Denver Broncos running back [HWSNBN] has been re-enrolled at OSU’s College of Education and Human Ecology to finish his degree.

Naturally, some insecure Wolverine fans are reeeeaallly stretchiinnng to try and put a negative spin on this.

Short memories aside, some folks seem to forget that what transpired with the [HWSNBN] situation is a pristine example of exactly how a university is supposed to act when encountered with that situation. At the first hint of impropriety, the player was sidelined, then suspended a few days later, then kicked off the team and out of the school. In fact, some of these actions occurred before definitive proof existed, making it seem unduly harsh at the time.

Viewing these actions in the context of the USC fiasco should increase the respect for how Andy Geiger, Jim Tressel, and the OSU administration handled the situation. History shows that kicking him out of the school likely cost OSU at least a shot at the 2003 title game; a risk they were willing to take.

Remember, he was kicked out for making a false police report. It wasn’t until years later that [HWSNBN] decided to ignore Kirk Lazarus’ advice, validating Geiger’s and Tressel’s prescient actions of several years prior.

Finally, consider how, uh… “interesting” it is that he returned to the same school that only a few years ago he was trying to throw under the bus. It’s an indication of how suspiciously one should view his earlier allegations (if any doubt still existed after the NCAA found them unsubstantiated, that is).

It’s a good thing when people get out of prison and try to finish their studies, let’s wish him well. And hope that he finds work with the Broncos again.

—
In the meantime, why not amuse yourself with this very relevant walk down MotSaG memory lane.

In heavy rotation on Columbus sports talk radio, this sound byte from UM center David Mooseman*:

“There’s no one on that [Buckeye] defense that’s that special or better than anyone else.”

Worthington: “Moosebrains said what?!?”

Uh… hey, David: Remember what happened to the last UM player who said the exact same thing? Have fun apologizing to your hospitalized quarterback, dude.

Meanwhile, UM fans who lack reading comprehension skills and a sense of humor are so desperate for bulletin board material that they are questioning the legitimacy of Mandel’s obviously fake quote.

*At the time of this posting, a brief scan of the interwebs has failed to produce the source of Mooseman’s quote. Chime in with a link when it hits.

Tomorrow, OSU’s departing seniors will trot onto the field turf for the last time at the Horseshoe. If Cameron Heyward has his way, new Iowa QB James Vandenberg will share that same experience.

I won’t spend too much time on Iowa this week, other than to caution overconfidence on the part of Buckeye players and fans. Unlike the paper tigers from State College last week, Iowa has proven itself to be a good team, certainly the best- or next-best in the Big 10. “Team” being the best descriptor of the Hawkeyes; they’ve been behind in all but one game this year, and come from behind to win in all but one as well. That doesn’t happen to teams that aren’t unified.

Regardless of who starts under center tomorrow, the Hawkeyes will be entering a hostile environment, playing for the outright Big Ten title, and playing for the Rose Bowl berth, which gives them plenty of reasons to come out motivated. There’s a lot of pride on the line for them as well, after being told all week long that their season is over and they have no chance against the Buckeyes. All these factors, along with a QB that had a full week of practice reps for the first time in his college career, means that we shouldn’t be surprised if Iowa pulls off a surprisingly competitive game.

Having said that, though, we shouldn’t give the Hawkeyes too much credit. Iowa peaked early in the season, and had been playing with fire in the weeks prior to their loss. Check out the super-duper-canned-spreadsheet scoring margin chart (dotted lines show the computed trends):

According to the trendlines, anyway, it looks like the most competitive game for these two teams would have been in week 2.

Okay, we’ll cut this one short. This week’s questions:

Will Hurt Coleman get his last INT in the Shoe tomorrow?
Total TDs by Pryor?
Will Daryl Clark suddenly appear on the field at 3:47 p.m., having been knocked by Heyward into next week, last week?
Final Score? (Alternate: ROSES!! or No Roses!)

(el Kaiser here, letting you know about this week’s contest) The person with the closest prediction of the final score of the OSU/Iowa game will win a copy of Rivalries: The History of Michigan vs. Ohio State (link opens iTunes) from the iTunes Music Store. (Yes, you’ll actually have to predict a final score, not just ROSES/NO ROSES)

Released in 2004, Rivalries: The History of Michigan vs. Ohio State is a must-view documentary for Ohio State fans. It’s a fairly balanced look at the rivalry through the years. Former players, coaches and journalists all discuss the greatest rivalry in college sports. If you haven’t seen it, you owe it to yourself to watch it. Over and over again.

Please note: this contest is available only to U.S. residents. It is not necessary, but helpful, if you already have an iTunes account, otherwise you’ll have to make one to redeem your prize.

sportsMonkey’s predictions:
Hurt’s INT: Yes, and he’ll return it all the way to the first round of the NFL draft.
Pryor TDs: 3
Clark: Will show up confused, then immediately get sacked again.
Score: ROSES!!

el Kaiser’s predictions:
Hurt’s INT: Coleman is a ballhawk. He gets two INTs as Vandenberg does his best Stanzi impersonation.
Pryor TDs: 2
Clark: Shows up in a ball of energy, naked, and asks Coleman if he’s the legal guardian of John Connor.
Score: OSU: 31 Iowa: 15 (ROSES!)