Archives for November 2008

2008 Blogpoll Ballot, Week #11

Rank Team Delta
1 Texas Tech 2
2 Alabama 1
3 Florida 1
4 Texas 1
5 Oklahoma 1
6 Penn State 4
7 Southern Cal 1
8 Boise State 2
9 Utah 2
10 Oklahoma State 3
11 Ohio State 1
12 Georgia 1
13 Ball State 2
14 Missouri 3
15 Brigham Young 1
16 Michigan State 2
17 TCU 8
18 North Carolina 1
19 Florida State 4
20 LSU 6
21 Cincinnati 5
22 Pittsburgh 2
23 Tulsa 3
24 South Carolina 2
25 Oregon State 1

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#20), California (#21), Georgia Tech (#22), Maryland (#25).

Don’t look now…

cbjlogonew.jpg…but the Jackets have quietly crawled out of the Western Conference basement.

In fact, they’ve amazingly moved up to 8th place in the West. Collecting nine points in six games will do that.

Mason is performing admirably. The young guns on the team are forming a chemistry – they seem to be playing more as a team and less as individuals. Brassard’s Rookie of the Month award for October was well-deserved. There’s still tons of inconsistency, but every so often, flashes of brilliance appear that grab the attention, and give some encouragement as the meat of the season gets underway.

For an example, check out the second goal of last Wednesday’s Edmonton game (starts at 1:03). The offensive effort was brilliant. Commodore comes out of the box, joins the rush, and several dizzying passes later, Brassard wrists it into the net. They looked like NHL veterans, but there were three rookies and three defensmen on the ice for that play.

Of course, when a team starts out at dead last in the standings, any rise defines “improvement.” But in the Jackets’ case, there does seem to be a bit of a fire brewing that was not there in early October.

Roses gone, but Oranges are nice, too [Updated] [Update to the Update]

Penn State’s loss against Iowa has all but shut out increased the Buckeyes’ chances of making it to Pasadena.

Assuming a PSU win next week, the Lions and the Spartans will be playing for Rose Bowl rights on November 22nd. A Michigan State victory creates a tie between Ohio State and Michigan State, with Ohio State owning the tie-breaker in the head-to-head category.

Contrary to popular opinion, an MSU win will not put the Bucks into the Rose Bowl, as a Big Ten tiebreaking rule would then be applied: the team with the fewest I-AA opponents would go. Since Sparty did not schedule an FCS opponent, they would get the automatic bid by default.

Ohio State’s only path to the Rose Bowl is for PSU to lose next Saturday (15th), and MSU to lose the following week (22nd). Both situations are very unlikely to occur.

So, assuming that Ohio State wins out (a big assumption, as there are still two very tough games left), that would place them in position for a BCS at-large bid.

Here’s where it gets messy: there are only two teams per conference allowed in the BCS. If Michigan State wins the conference’s automatic bid, then only Ohio State or Penn State will be allowed to go to a BCS game (not both). In that scenario, Penn State would likely be chosen since they’d probably be ranked higher.

If Penn State wins, then it’s safe to say that OSU has a lock on one of the at-large bids. Since the Orange Bowl has expressed interest in getting the Buckeyes this year — representatives of the committee were at yesterday’s Northwestern game — it seems likely that we’re going to see Ohio State match up against the ACC champion in primetime on New Year’s Day.

Not a bad end to a season at all.

So, once again, Buckeye fans, we are rooting (1) to win out, of course, and (2) for Penn State to beat Sparty on the 22nd. Otherwise, the Bucks will probably be heading to the Capital One Bowl, where Georgia seems destined to appear.

Update: el Kaiser here, hopefully to clear up some things sportsMonkey perhaps didn’t realize when he originally posted this. I’ll leave it as-is and let him clean it up as he sees fit, but it should be clear: A Michigan State victory over Penn State will send the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl, since Penn State will have two conference losses, and OSU and MSU will each have one. Since Ohio State owns the tie breaker, they get the nod to the Rose Bowl. (Recommended reading: Method to Determine Big Ten Conference Automatic Representative to Bowl Championship Series (thanks to all that sent that in))

Whether a Rose Bowl (and probably rematch with USC) trip is good for the Buckeyes is subject for another day.

Update to the updated update:
sportsMonkey here. Sorry, folks, for the original inaccurate conclusion. For some reason, I was applying the rules for a three-way-tie to a two-way-tie. I swear I wasn’t smoking or drinking anything when I wrote it.

I’d love to alter this post retroactively, but I’ll let it stand like the piece of fail that it is, and hopefully the shame will cause me to tread more carefully with predictions in the future.

In case you’re lost, the possibilities are these (assuming OSU wins out):

  1. PSU loses next week to Indiana, then beats MSU the week after. OSU wins Big 10 outright, heads to Rose Bowl.
  2. MSU beats PSU in two weeks. OSU and MSU share Big 10 title, OSU goes to Rose Bowl via tiebreaker rule.
  3. PSU loses next two games. OSU and MSU share Big 10 title, Rose Bowl for OSU.
  4. PSU beats both Indiana and MSU. Penn State and OSU share Big 10 title. Lions go to Rose Bowl via tiebreaker rule. Orange Bowl for OSU. (IMO, this is the most likely scenario.)

Again, though, those four outcomes all depend on OSU winning out. Based on the remaining SOS, it seems likely that the Buckeyes will be favored in both games. However, let’s not look too far ahead. Illinois matches up very well against the Buckeyes, and as always, the outcome of the Michigan game is 50/50, no matter the records, no matter the teams.

Sorry again for the ginormous post of FAIL. Mucho thanks to el Kaiser for spotting me (and saving MotSaG rep) while I was AFK.

Week #11 Open Thread and Semi-live Game Update

Ohio State: 45 vs. Northwestern: 10

First Quarter
Looks like the offensive line picked up where it left off two weeks ago. But then again, who needs a running game when Pryor is throwing like he is? Six running play and negative yards is not the way we wanted to see this game start, but hopefully the success of the passing game will loosen up the defense.

Ohio State’s Offensive Line: Making bad defenses look good since 2007.

Second Quarter
Beanie Wells has had enough of this crummy run blocking and he will JUST DO IT HIMSELF.

Watch out, Northwestern, you’re about to get MSU’ed.

Andre Ware is the Bill Walton of ESPN College football commentating. “He’s the greatest short yard back in college football.” “He’s got the best hands in the country.” “I could taste colors. I could feel sounds.”

Boone just encapsulated the entire lack of any senior leadership on this offense.

Half-time

Third Quarter
These referees need to keep their flags in their pockets.

Terrelle Pryor is having his way with Northwestern’s defense. Breaking tackles, converting on third-and-long, throwing with accuracy on the run. This is the consistency we’ve been waiting and hoping for, with running and throwing the ball with positive, actual results.

Fourth Quarter
Even though some of Terrelle’s throws today have still been floaty, a lot of his passes (like his latest to Robiskie) have looked a lot tighter and accurate. The maturation of TP continues and it’s quite enjoyable to watch.

Was Tressel mad after that last score by Herron? Replay signs point to “YES”.

Someone needs to remind Andre Ware that he and his Houston Cougar teammates beat SMU 95-21 in 1989.

Illinois 17 vs. W. Michigan 23
Seriously, Illinois? This is TRBL.

Iowa 24 vs. Penn State 23
I hate to admit it, but I called Iowa for the upset three weeks ago. Ask monkey if you doubt me.

It happens a lot, but I still hate being right all the time. Thanks a lot, Penn State. Go Michigan State! Beat the pants off the Paterno Poopers!

Week #11: Northwestern University – Open Thread

The stretch run is upon us. Three more games, three chances to finally get it right. Will it happen this week? Will everything click, come together and finally give us all something to smile about? We can all hope so.

For the game particulars, including copious amounts of data, Buckeye Planet delivers. Most other OSU blogs get their previews up on Fridays, after this post has been set to go live, so make sure you check in at Eleven Warriors and Buckeye Commentary. For an alternate look at how Ohio State and Northwestern stack up, statistically speaking, Lake the Posts delivers. Hail to the Purple looks at the match-up as well.

Some other tidbits. Beanie Wells “practiced more last week than he had during any of the previous three weeks leading into games.”… Previously injured (and thought to be done for the season) J. B. Shugarts will be available to play tomorrow. Northwestern may play two QBs… Hartline will take over punt return duty for the suspended Small… Will the weather be a factor?

Ohio State needs to look good these last few games. All three look like they should be gimme games. Northwestern will probably offer the most resistance, as Illinois is going to suffer a gigantic “revenge” spanking and Michigan is TRBL.

Northwestern is hurting and Ohio State looks to be healthy and hungry coming off the bye week. Look for a big game from Beanie, especially if the weather is disagreeable to a passing game. The defense is a given at this point, with the defensive line finally playing cohesively and getting better as the season goes on. This may look close early on, but Ohio State should pull away with an easy win.

I’m interested to see what effect the Ray Small incident has on this team. I don’t have any inside information, so I don’t know what relationships are like between players, but an incident like this can have a ripple effect through the team. Was he a chronic slacker, constantly getting into trouble? Or was it just a kid being a kid. Either way, I hope this tightens up the discipline and brings the team closer together.

No contests or prizes this week, but we won’t let that stop us from having fun guessing the final outcome. Prediction time!

el Kaiser predicts:
OSU: 27
Northwestern: 9

Predictions, thoughts and criticism are welcome in the comments.

sportsMonkey predicts:
OSU: 27
Northwestern: 3

Adios, Ray Small

Jim Tressel has suspended Ray Small indefinitely for violation of team rules.

The rumor mill says Ray kept missing classes.

Ken Small, Ray’s father, attacked Tressel’s decision in the press:

“We see it as a family that they are intentionally blowing his whole career,” Ken Small said Wednesday night. “Whatever it is, it’s personal.”

It’s a sad situation to be sure, but it’s got to be done for the good of the team and its reputation. Especially since the father’s comments reveal an inappropriate attitude. Ray was touted as the next Ted Ginn – in fact, Coach Ginn Sr. said he had a more natural talent – and perhaps the hype gave him a false sense of entitlement.

Team-wise, it’s sad to see Small go, but the WR corps is rather deep and there shouldn’t be a significant drop-off in talent.

UPDATE:
ESPN and the AP are reporting the suspension is for two games, while the Plain Dealer reports that the suspension is “indefinite.” Either way, Small is not likely to return this year, if at all.

Let Brady Play!!

We don’t talk Brownie football as much as I’d like around here, but I was floored to hear that Brady Quinn will be taking over the role of starting QB for the Cleveland Browns.

I stand with the majority of Browns fans who honestly gave Anderson the benefit of the doubt after a slow start, but the pick-six he threw yesterday was the proverbial straw. I have nothing against Anderson, he seems like a solid guy, but I am excited to see what Brady can do. I just wonder if this is the right move. We’ll find out soon enough.

I, for one, welcome our new Brady Quinn Overlords.

Tressel typically dominant following losses

Under the Vest’s tenure, OSU has fared quite well in games following regular season losses.

Since 2001, OSU has lost 14 regular season games (four of those were from Tressel’s inaugural season). Of the 14 games that followed, the Buckeyes won 12 of them.

The two losses were the last two of a stretch of three straight losses in 2004. The average score for those 12 wins was 27-15. They came against a variety of teams, from weakling non-conference opponents, to middle-performing Big10 teams, to conference leaders, and even Michigan.

Now, before OSU fans get too confident at Tressel’s 12-2 record in these circumstances, consider that aberrant year (2004) again. If you remember that “dark year” under Tressel, those three straight losses were the catalyst that caused the coaches to give Troy Smith the nod as #1 quarterback (which Zwick’s hip injury later helped seal). New quarterback, behind a terrible offensive line. Sound familiar?

So while the stats bear out confidence in a likely OSU victory against the Wildcats this weekend, the team’s circumstance seems to mirror that of the 2004 squad.

And you know what else happened in 2004? OSU lost, at Northwestern.

However, before el Kaiser bursts a blood vessel at my perceived pessimism, I will close by reminding everyone that NW’s 2004 victory was the first against OSU since 1971, and first at home since 1958. It is just Northwestern, after all.

2008 Blogpoll Ballot, Week #10

Rank Team Delta
1 Alabama 2
2 Penn State
3 Texas Tech 3
4 Florida 1
5 Texas 4
6 Oklahoma 2
7 Oklahoma State 2
8 Southern Cal
9 TCU 5
10 Boise State 1
11 Utah 1
12 Ohio State
13 Georgia 6
14 LSU 1
15 Ball State 1
16 Brigham Young 1
17 Missouri 2
18 Michigan State 3
19 North Carolina 3
20 West Virginia 6
21 California 5
22 Georgia Tech 1
23 Florida State 5
24 Pittsburgh 2
25 Maryland 1

Dropped Out: Minnesota (#19), Tulsa (#20), Oregon (#24), Cincinnati (#25).

The bunch at the top is messy. I think Texas Tech deserves #1, Zeke thinks ‘Bama does. The only other problem I have with our poll is how high Utah is. They barely beat a 4-6 New Mexico team, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Not sure how Cincinnati won, and dropped out. We may have to rethink the last 5 spots.

Week #10: Bye Week – Open Thread

We apologize for our extended absence this week. You can blame it on either a) us mourning the loss against Penn State or b) our extreme laziness. If you blame it on ‘b’, you’re probably closer to the truth.

So have you vented enough? Moved on? I was going to dip my toes in the previous comment threads but decided against it. You guys do a great job of not feeding the trolls too much and keep things (mostly) civil. We appreciate that. We’ll have a winner from last week’s guess-the-score contest, as well. We’ll be contacting the winner shortly.

Bye weeks are always weird for me, because I struggle to care about the other 116 teams out there, especially after a loss. But I’ll still be watching the World’s Largest Outdoor Jorts Convention and the Battle for Texas.

What are you watching? Who are our rooting for?