And then there were five. With Florida State’s decisive extermination of Miami last week, each power conference now has exactly one undefeated team. Those five teams have a combined 24 games (including conference championships, assuming they all make it) remaining to sort out who gets to play for the national title.

While I remain steadfast in my belief that three of these teams will eventually lose, if we come out of this weekend with all five still unblemished, I have to admit I’ll start to worry. Of the five, only Ohio State has the week off and three of remaining four are facing stiff tests, two of those happening tonight.

Last week’s prediction experiment was pretty successful, with only Michigan scoring outside of their expected range. Unfortunately, I have yet to figure out how to quantify getting completely steamrolled by a team you continue to disrespect despite beating you four out of the last five years. I’ve made some adjustments to the system for this week and in addition to the Best Case Scenario for each team, I’m including an Upset Chance percentage. (Note that the favorite for each game is in bold.) If that works as expected, a higher number should indicate a more competitive game.

Thursday

7:30pm

Oklahoma at Baylor. It’s time to see what the bears are made of. Baylor has had a pretty easy road so far, and Oklahoma is by far the best defense they’ve seen. (FS1)

Best Case (Baylor): 63-13
Best Case (Oklahoma): 41-30
Upset Chance: 23%

9:00pm

Oregon at Stanford. The Cardinal handed the Ducks their only loss of last season, stifling Oregon’s prolific offense. Can they do it again? (ESPN)

Best Case (Oregon): 51-9
Best Case (Stanford): 41-23
Upset Chance: 44%

Saturday

Noon

Florida State at Wake Forest. Do you like the transitive property? Clemson beat Wake Forest 56-7 and Florida State beat Clemson 51-14. That spells doom for the Demon Deacons. This game is only here because it features an unbeaten team. (ABC)

Best Case (Florida State): 70-0
Best Case (Wake Forest): 19-33
Upset Chance: 0%

3:30pm

BYU at Wisconsin. Both teams enter at 6-2 and neither has lost a game by more than 7 points. Fighting for a chance to stay in the big time bowl mix, I don’t see either team going down without a fight. (ESPN)

Best Case (Wisconsin): 42-13
Best Case (BYU): 33-23
Upset Chance: 35%

Nebraska at Michigan. Two more 6-2 teams clinging to their post-season hopes face off here. The Wolverines are reeling from the clown show they put on in East Lansing last week, while Nebraska is flying high coming off an insane Hail Mary win over Northwestern. Then winner remains in the Legends division hunt, although Michigan would still need a lot of help. (ABC)

Best Case (Michigan): 49-6
Best Case (Nebraska): 42-14
Upset Chance: 65%

7:00pm

Virginia Tech at Miami. The Hurricanes got thumped last week by Florida State and the Hokies are on a two-game skid, losing to the likes of Duke and Boston College. A loss here is going to be devastating to either team’s season. (ESPN)

Best Case (Miami): 35-9
Best Case (Virginia Tech): 29-16
Upset Chance: 48%

8:00pm

LSU at Alabama. LSU’s two losses take a little bit of the shine off this matchup, which has been one the most competitive over the past few years. Both of those were by three points on the road, though, so don’t count LSU out completely. They will absolutely be up for this game, and you never know what you’re going to get out of this guy. (CBS)

Best Case (Alabama): 49-10
Best Case (LSU): 35-29
Upset Chance: 14%

Another bye week is here, so what better time to check in on those teams from the Fraud List? Two teams are being dropped from list, as they appear to have survived long enough to avoid losing five games. Although it’s still technically possible, I don’t think Missouri or Houston (#s 4 and 5, respectively) will hit rock bottom this season. So that’s the good news. The bad? One team has already achieved Fraud status by losing their last five games. Ouch.

1. Northwestern

The Wildcats were #2 on the initial list and they took the challenge to heart. Starting with a sloppy attempt at “The Play” that ended in a touchdown (for Ohio State) and ending with this, Northwestern put together as heartbreaking a five-game skid as you can imagine, losing only once by more than 10 points.

2. Maryland

The Terps’ last four games are three losses and a one point win over Virginia. That makes an otherwise unimposing remaining slate of Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Boston College and NC State seem downright daunting.

3. Washington

If not for the way their schedule sets up, I would probably rank the Huskies a little lower, but at 3 losses already and their two toughest remaining games (UCLA and Oregon State) both on the road (and back-to-back), I just don’t think they’ll pull it off.

4. Michigan

Michigan managed to move down from the top spot by not completely choking after their early narrow escapes against terrible teams. Still, they were completely annihilated by Michigan State and are entering into to a stretch that is just challenging enough to swallow up a battered team seeking an identity.

5. Texas Tech / UCLA

I lean toward the Red Raiders here, but there’s a chance UCLA tanks it too. Tech plays Kansas State before taking on Baylor and Texas on the road, and they could easily lose all three. UCLA has a probable win against Washington, but also has to get by Arizona, Arizona State and USC, all of whom could give them trouble.

The old adage, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend“, is usually reserved within a political context. For Ohio State, ranked fourth in the latest version of the BCS standings, this adage may be necessary during the November stretch run.

Ohio State sits 9-0, coming off an impressive 56-0 victory at Purdue. The second bye week of the 2013 season will come at an opportune time for Ohio State, allowing the players time to rest and recuperate before finishing up the month with games at Illinois, Indiana, and That Team Up North.

A common, and convenient, refrain used by critics of Ohio State has been that the Buckeyes have not played anyone. While Ohio State did play against lesser-regarded teams such as Buffalo, San Diego State, and Florida A&M, the media conveniently ignores that Ohio State did defeat ranked teams such as Wisconsin and Northwestern earlier in the season. All Ohio State can do, from here on out, is play, and defeat, the teams the Buckeyes have left to play.

What could help the Buckeyes would be if Michigan State, as well as That Team Up North, were to win the remaining games on their respective schedules. This is where the old adage from up above kicks in.

For example, That Team Up North has remaining games versus Nebraska (11/09), at Northwestern (11/16), and at Iowa, before THE GAME on 11/30. If That Team Up North were to win all of these games before the Buckeyes arrive in Ann Arbor, their record would be 9-2. That Team Up North truly needs to regroup for the November stretch run.

Michigan State, which thoroughly dominated That Team Up North in its 29-6 victory, is not scheduled to play Ohio State. Michigan State’s remaining games are at Nebraska (11/16), at Northwestern (11/23), and Minnesota (11/30). Like Ohio State, the Spartans have a bye week scheduled for 11/09. If the Spartans won all of their remaining games, Michigan State would have an 11-1 record, and the Buckeyes would play the Spartans for The B1G championship the evening of 12/07 in Indianapolis.

Ohio State can only control its performance on the field. It certainly would not hurt for the Buckeyes to be rooting for their enemy, and the enemy of their enemy, for the remainder of November.

There is a report out today from the Broward County/Palm Beach Sun Sentinel that says Luke Fickell was interviewed today for the Florida Atlantic Head Coaching job that was made vacant last week when Carl Pelini was fired.

Here is some of the report…

FAU Athletic Director Pat Chun is wasting no time in going after his top choice to replace Carl Pelini.

Sources close to the situation tell the Sun Sentinel that Chun flew to Columbus, Ohio Tuesday to interview Ohio State defensive coordinator Luke Fickell for FAU’s vacant head coaching position.

The 40-year-old Fickell is Chun’s top target for the FAU job, which is being held in the interim by Owls offensive coordinator Brian Wright.

Chun’s secretary confirmed that Chun was not at the school’s facilities today. Chun said Saturday that he would not have any comment on the Owls’ coaching search until a hire has been made. That stance was reaffirmed by the FAU athletic department’s spokeswoman Tuesday.

Chun knows Fickell well, having spent 15 years in the Ohio State athletic department before accepting the FAU AD job in July 2012.

also…

Moments after announcing Pelini’s resignation last Wednesday, Chun said that he had many friends in the coaching profession from his time at Ohio State, and that he planned on aiming high with his hire.

and…

For Chun, Fickell is aiming high. Fickell’s 2013 salary at Ohio State is $600,000, roughly $100,000 more than Carl Pelini made as FAU’s head coach, though Chun said earlier this year he believed it would be possible for FAU to raise its coaches’ compensation after the season.

The question is is this the kind of job that could pull Fickell away from his home and dream job? FAU offers a lot to be honest in weather, recruiting, distance away from OSU footprint, and a fresh start as the head coach of a College Football Team. Time will tell how serious he is about this job. I doubt he would do anything prior to the season ending. Coach Fickell is a polarizing figure for fans with some loving him for being a Buckeye at it’s truest meaning and the rest disliking his defensive play calling the last 2 years. What do you think should he stay or should he go?

Good morning Buckeye Nation.

Big Boy Tournament: Last week Thad Matta confirmed that the Buckeyes will be playing in a tournament that will have Kentucky, UCLA, and North Carolina. This is exciting news for the Buckeyes basketball program and since it looks to be a 3 year tournament currently it will allow the incoming highly rated (still a big short) 2014 recruiting class to be a part of it and should help Matta even more recruiting wise. I know Matta has stated he doesn’t want to have a tough non conference schedule because of the B1G play but it looks as if the Buckeyes are getting more meaningful non conference games that will be prime time and that’s a huge get for the kids wanting to be on playing in prime time.

Semifinalist: Seems that missing what almost 3 games isn’t hurting Braxton Miller. It was just announced that Miller was selected as a semifinalist for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award. Miller is currently fourth nationally for his completion percentage and seventh in passing efficiency. Goes to show all that hard work to become a better pocket passing QB over the summer has been working. Keep up the great work Miller!!

Just Missed it: Aaron Craft was voted sixth for the preseason All American team. That’s OK don’t worry Craft you are All American to us and that’s all that counts. Lets see at the end of the season where this all shakes out and Mr. Rosy Cheeks dominates the landscape of college basketball with his shut down defense.

Until next time Buckeye Nation…

A huge problem for the Buckeyes basketball team was the lack of an inside presence. There was no type of production down in the paint. Matta has his two main centers returning. Amir Williams and Trey Mcdonald. Amir Williams will be the starter with Trey being his backup. This year, there needs to be trust in Amir Williams. The Buckeyes need to get him going and going early in the season. I have read that Williams and Mcdonald have both shown improvement this off season. OSU has known to go small, time will tell to see what the production of the big guys are.

Amir Williams:

Amir has been a productive shot blocker for the Buckeyes. Everyone would like to see some more rebounds and a little offensive spark in him. If he could average a couple points a game, be a shot blocker and have a big man presence on defense, the Buckeyes are looking good down low. I read an article from http://www.cleveland.com/ talking about how Amir looked very improved. Also stating that he is handling the ball well. Amir is a huge factor for the Buckeyes, it is important to have that big man factor when teams prepare for OSU. I believe fans will see a more developed big man considering last year there was no big man factor.

Trey Mcdonald:

Trey Mcdonald has had the role of being the backup center. We did not see him much last year because Evan Ravenel who played PF for the Buckeyes would usually replace Amir. Trey certainly has the size to be a dominant center. I think he will get solid minutes due to Ravenel’s absence. Trey really hasn’t played in any big time minutes. This year he will be needed as another center. I do not really see the Buckeyes playing with both Trey and Amir. Matta likes to go small, so this leaves usually at most one center on the floor.

1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Oregon
5. Baylor
6. Stanford
7. Clemson
8. Oklahoma
9. Michigan State
10. Missouri
11. Auburn
12. Oklahoma State
13. Fresno State
14. Northern Illinois
15. Miami of Florida
16. UCF
17. Louisville
18. Texas A&M
19. LSU
20. Wisconsin
21. Arizona State
22. UCLA
23. BYU
24. Texas
25. Minnesota

– Why can’t it be 2014 already? Can you imagine how awesome and fun a playoff would be with Bama, OSU, FSU, and Oregon? The truth is it would be epically awesome and would solve the problem of this years issue of having to many good undefeated teams fighting for 2 spots. It is still early though and I think it will still play out to 1 or 2 undefeated teams only.

– Outside of the top 5 which are the only undefeated teams with a chance to make the NCG (sorry Fresno St and No. Illinois) the rest of the top 25 is a convoluted mess that changes constantly it gets very murky. The question is which conference has the better teams because that will determine how the top 25 is laid out.

– The B1G is getting a ton of grief this year but I do believe that OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin could beat 99% of the teams in CFB on a neutral field. I think Minnesota could beat 66%. Nebraska and PSU 50%. TTUN would struggle to beat 40% of the teams in CFB.

– The good news is we are now in November and this is when most of the tough games are played on everyones schedule. The contenders and pretenders will be sorted out really soon.

– What says you? How would you rank these teams? Let us know in the comments.

Welcome to the weekly installment where we look at the game from a statistical perspective. Feel free to add your thoughts. What stats impressed you? Any stats concern you? Here are 5 stats that stood out to me against Purdue.

0 – The so called experts will say it was Purdue and the Buckeyes should have won by a large margin. That is all well and good, but given the recent history against the Boilermakers it was nice to destroy them. Kudos to the defense for the shutout. 56-0 is nice regardless of the opponenent. In honor of the shutout, I will be focusing mainly on defensive stats.

116 – The defense yielded on 116 total yards. Impressive team defense. The Buckeyes have yet to give up a run of over 20 yards all season. The only team in the nation that can say that.

6 – Six players combined for a total of 6 sacks in the game. The Buckeyes sit atop the B1G with 17 sacks in conference games.

17% – Purdue managed only 2 (out of 12) first downs on third down. The Buckeye D was able to get off the field very effectivly on third down.

5-116-1 – I suppose scoring 56 points is worthy of one offensive stat. Jeff Heuerman was the leading receiver (and it wasn’t close) on Saturday. It was nice to see the tight ends getting some love. A lot of the credit goes to Braxton becasue of his ability to find the open guy. Jeff was open on Saturday; hauling in 5 catches for 116 yards and 1 TD. Nice game for Heuerman. Note: Nick Vannet also caught a TD. 11 players caught at least one pass.

Any other key stats against Purdue?