And then there were five. With Florida State’s decisive extermination of Miami last week, each power conference now has exactly one undefeated team. Those five teams have a combined 24 games (including conference championships, assuming they all make it) remaining to sort out who gets to play for the national title.
While I remain steadfast in my belief that three of these teams will eventually lose, if we come out of this weekend with all five still unblemished, I have to admit I’ll start to worry. Of the five, only Ohio State has the week off and three of remaining four are facing stiff tests, two of those happening tonight.
Last week’s prediction experiment was pretty successful, with only Michigan scoring outside of their expected range. Unfortunately, I have yet to figure out how to quantify getting completely steamrolled by a team you continue to disrespect despite beating you four out of the last five years. I’ve made some adjustments to the system for this week and in addition to the Best Case Scenario for each team, I’m including an Upset Chance percentage. (Note that the favorite for each game is in bold.) If that works as expected, a higher number should indicate a more competitive game.
Thursday
7:30pm
Oklahoma at Baylor. It’s time to see what the bears are made of. Baylor has had a pretty easy road so far, and Oklahoma is by far the best defense they’ve seen. (FS1)
Best Case (Baylor): 63-13
Best Case (Oklahoma): 41-30
Upset Chance: 23%
9:00pm
Oregon at Stanford. The Cardinal handed the Ducks their only loss of last season, stifling Oregon’s prolific offense. Can they do it again? (ESPN)
Best Case (Oregon): 51-9
Best Case (Stanford): 41-23
Upset Chance: 44%
Saturday
Noon
Florida State at Wake Forest. Do you like the transitive property? Clemson beat Wake Forest 56-7 and Florida State beat Clemson 51-14. That spells doom for the Demon Deacons. This game is only here because it features an unbeaten team. (ABC)
Best Case (Florida State): 70-0
Best Case (Wake Forest): 19-33
Upset Chance: 0%
3:30pm
BYU at Wisconsin. Both teams enter at 6-2 and neither has lost a game by more than 7 points. Fighting for a chance to stay in the big time bowl mix, I don’t see either team going down without a fight. (ESPN)
Best Case (Wisconsin): 42-13
Best Case (BYU): 33-23
Upset Chance: 35%
Nebraska at Michigan. Two more 6-2 teams clinging to their post-season hopes face off here. The Wolverines are reeling from the clown show they put on in East Lansing last week, while Nebraska is flying high coming off an insane Hail Mary win over Northwestern. Then winner remains in the Legends division hunt, although Michigan would still need a lot of help. (ABC)
Best Case (Michigan): 49-6
Best Case (Nebraska): 42-14
Upset Chance: 65%
7:00pm
Virginia Tech at Miami. The Hurricanes got thumped last week by Florida State and the Hokies are on a two-game skid, losing to the likes of Duke and Boston College. A loss here is going to be devastating to either team’s season. (ESPN)
Best Case (Miami): 35-9
Best Case (Virginia Tech): 29-16
Upset Chance: 48%
8:00pm
LSU at Alabama. LSU’s two losses take a little bit of the shine off this matchup, which has been one the most competitive over the past few years. Both of those were by three points on the road, though, so don’t count LSU out completely. They will absolutely be up for this game, and you never know what you’re going to get out of this guy. (CBS)
Best Case (Alabama): 49-10
Best Case (LSU): 35-29
Upset Chance: 14%
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