This Saturday, the Buckeyes will have their first game against a team with whom they share one or more common opponents.

Like last year, these weekly tables attempt to compare apples to apples between the good and the bad guys. As the season progresses, the tables get longer and become more reflective of reality. Take the first week or two with a grain of salt – the sample sizes are smaller, and therefore it’s harder to draw meaningful conclusions and/or discern any major chronological trends. This week the issue is compounded a bit by the OSU numbers not reflecting a healthy Beanie Wells – who played at 75% with an injured foot against Wisconsin and with the flu against Purdue. Still, the numbers are useful, especially the defensive ones.

The tables list the opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Penn State

Table 2: Ohio State

The values in Table 3 indicate a team’s overall performance, percentage-wise, against the average numbers the common opponents typically allow.

For example, in the table below, PSU scored an average of 31% more points on these common opponents than what those opponents typically allow, while the Lions’ defense held these opponents to 72% fewer points than what they were typically used to, and so on.

Table 3: Performance against what Common Opponents Typically Allow

Notes:
Yowch.

Now, before you Buckeye fans get too depressed about these numbers, it’s worth noting a few things. The defenses are pretty much even, which is good news. Yes, 72% is better than 57%, but the difference is negligible when there is only a four point separation between the two teams. This is reflected in the Yards Allowed column in Table 3.

Offensive production is where the numbers are most disparate. I’m sure Buckeye fans will point out that (1) Beanie’s big toe/flu problem against Purdue, (2) a night game at Camp Randall before Wisco mailed in the rest of its season, and (3) Pryor’s first road start of his career. IMO, excuses. I wouldn’t put much stock in such excuses if they came out of the UM side of the world, so I won’t espouse them here.

I will say, however, that optimism/pessimism aside, none of these charts show intangibles, like injuries, weather, etc. No question that OSU owns the associated intangibles: night game, at the ‘Shoe, in what looks like power-rushing game favoring weather, against an opponent that Tressel & co. have had good historical success against (one that hasn’t played against even a mediocre defense all season long), and with Beanie Wells who just might be above 80% for the first time this season.

But still, the numbers themselves aren’t encouraging. Argue among yourselves.

Here is this week’ Open Thread for available for your commenting pleasure. What’cha watching? Who looks good, who doesn’t?

This will also become the semi-live update for the OSU game.

Ohio State v. Michigan State

This certainly doesn’t bode well.

That 3rd-and-short to Beanie was frustrating, but OSU’s D is looking stout right now.

Beanie and Pryor attacking on the ground with much success.

Ohio State: 7
Michigan State: 0

NOW GO FOR THE JUGULAR!

Beanie is a man possessed. The monkey and I always talk about how he runs “mean”. Now he’s running “mean and nasty”. I love it.

All together now: IT’S ABOUT TIME.

Pryor did a great job eluding the rush, didn’t rush things himself and through a nice pass to Robo.

Ohio State: 14
Michigan State: 0

I just woke up my napping son after Hartline came down with that grab. That thing was a thing of beauty and I want to marry it I love it so much. G’night Sparty. The rout is ON!

Ohio State: 21
Michigan State: 0

Bring Boeckman in!

What’s this? A complete game? The offense and the defense are both playing well?

185 yards of offense in the first quarter? Who is this Buckeye team, and what did they do with the team that’s been playing out there last week?

Second Quarter

Is this the world’s longest Cadillac commercial? I’ve clicked over to the UM/PSU game like three times and it’s still going. (oops, my bad. My DVR had paused the game for me. I R SMRT)

Someone on the sideline or in the booth obviously had an epiphany. Play action passes, roll-out dumps to the TE. And now a little screen to the FB. Kudos to the coaches for pulling their heads out of the sand.

A draw play on 3rd and long? Brilliant!

Ohio State: 28
Michigan State: 0

I’m calling it now: Watch for Tressel to call off the dogs. No way he’s running it up on his boy Dino.

Half-time

Michigan State just got gut-punched.

Third Quarter

Has the defense hit the snooze button? Wake them when it’s the fourth quarter?

Ohio State: 28
Michigan State: 7

Fourth Quarter

I guess the defense was napping — one big hit from who-else and 69 yards goes Thaddues Maximus McSpeedius in the other direction.

Ohio State: 35
Michigan State: 7

Not much more to really type about except for the defense scoring again. I’d like to see that happen more often.

Ohio State: 45
Michigan State: 7

Final

Ohio State travels to East Lansing to take on the surprisingly good Michigan State Spartans this Saturday, 3:30 PM. The game will be on ABC, barring any brain farts from the ABC operators.

How do the Buckeye fans see it? Buckeye Planet and The O-Zone.

How does Sparty’s fans see it? SpartMSU (seriously, Ringer better than Beanie? Come on guys, let’s be reasonable) and The Enlightened Spartan

What about the “Pros”? ESPN and SI.

For all the attention MSU and Ringer are getting for their good ground attack, they’re actually averaging a yard less than Ohio State is per game (177 to 176). A yard is nothing. But our running game has been without Beanie for over half the season. Let’s not forget who has the best running back in the league (when healthy). (That would be Beanie)

Injuries are hurting OSU right now. It’s a total shame that to see DE Lawrence Wilson go down again. It’s almost unfair. Losing Adams and Shugarts isn’t devastating, but losing the chance at redshirting them hurts nonetheless.

Stay healthy, please!

And now it’s broken record time: We have been begging, pleading for the coaches to Unleash the Beast! Isn’t Ohio State’s motto still “Do Something Great®”? How about the coaches motto being “Do Something Different®”? We are just asking to give the Beast a chance. And yet our cries go unheeded. Will this be the game? Will Michigan State come into this game, ready to take it to the Buckeyes and smack them in the mouth, forcing a change? Will a gut punch get the coaches to turn to page 2 of the playbook? IS THERE A PAGE 2? Someone please help me understand.

So if we’re looking at the status quo come tomorrow at 3:30, we could be in for a long game. Ohio State handled Ringer last year. He’s not a big dude. We can and will have to stop him. But we also have to respond. Pryor needs to relax and let the game come to him. Players need to get along and trust each other. Pessism cannot rule the day. So much to do!

There’s no contest this week, but don’t let that stop you from giving us your predictions on the final score. And who wins the battle on the ground? Beanie or Javon? Let us know.

el Kaiser’s predictions:
OSU: 24 MSU: 20 – It’s going to be a close one, but I think OSU’s defense holds strong and only gives up 2 TDs.
Beanie: 180 yds, Ringer: 149 yds.

sportsMonkey’s predictions:
The situation sets itself up for a very bad day for Sparty. While OSU fans have been a little insecure over the offensive performance over past week or two (myself included), we have to remember that this team is actually underachieving. Conversely, MSU has ridden a one-dimensional scheme into a respectable record, has been overachieving, and overconfidence is brewing as a result.

Both situations will have to balance out sometime, and this weekend is the likely opportunity for it to happen. Sparty is overconfident, not only because of their success under Ringer, but also because of OSU’s struggle last week against Purdue.

I think it’s dangerous to look at OSU’s struggles and underestimate them. Beanie Wells had the flu last week – he did not practice or do drills all week, and was wheezing and gasping on the sidelines – and still put up just shy of 100 yards. MSU’s rushing defense is ranked 8th in the Big10, and that stat includes giving up 140 yards to Sutton last week.

And their quarterback? Hoyer has played for three more full games than Pryor has, yet Pryor has two more TDs on the season (9 touchdowns to Hoyer’s 7). MSU has not shown the ability to win games with their QB yet.

Therefore, that leaves Ringer. Ringer is good, yes, and will give MSU the best chance it has to win the game. But if there is one very, very nice thing about OSU this season, it’s the dependable and consistent play of the defense. This defense – this starting class of the past few years – has not yet failed a challenge against a one-dimensional team (e.g, a team known either for a great back, or a great QB). OSU handled Ringer last year, and a more experienced, veteran defense will probably do the same thing again this Saturday. No question whatsoever – OSU will absolutely keep Sparty to a reasonable amount of points.

That means – shocker! – that OSU will have to depend on its offense to win this one. Who knows which Buckeye team will show up? They seem to be rudderless. I know it’s cliche to say this, but it almost appears as if OSU’s offense (under Pryor) has been playing to the level of its opponent.

With all those factors in mind, I think MSU’s intensity ratchets up the Bucks’ own performance and (if OSU plays like it has been the past month or so) OSU will struggle at times but still win convincingly 20-13. However, if the “balancing” I mentioned above happens, they could easily win this game 41-10.

Either way, Beanie may almost double up Ringer, 160 yds to 90.