Archives for November 2011
Poll Dancing: Week Eleven, or Then There Were Two
If the season ended today, they would probably throw a party in the cobwebby underground BCS lair where a dozen of the most evil sports minds ever assembled tirelessly toil to make our lives as college football fans miserable. Â With losses by Stanford and Boise State over the weekend, we have reached the system’s sweet spot of only two undefeated major-conference teams, the maddening situation that generally lets the abomination of a post-season off scot-free.
But it’s not over yet, and that’s very good news. Â The primary thing to cheer for right now is an Oklahoma victory on December 3, when the Sooners take on the currently unbeaten Oklahoma State Cowboys. Â This is not at all unlikely, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Oklahoma is the favorite going into that game. Â They are easily the best team on Oklahoma State’s schedule. Â Of course, the outcome of that game could be rendered moot by an Arkansas upset over LSU on Black Friday. Â The Razorbacks have only one loss (@Alabama) and if they shock the Tigers, it would create a three-way tie atop the SEC West–complete with circular head-to-head–and those are always fun. Â If not, then a surging Georgia might do it in the conference championship the following week.
Once again, it’s time to revisit some earlier prognostications and see how I did.
Pre-Season Pretenders Update
These were the teams from the preseason Coaches’ Top 10 that I thought would lose at least 2 games this year.
Wrong So Far
#4 LSU (currently 10-0, #1 BCS)
The Tigers have @Ole Miss, Arkansas, a possible SECCG berth, and a bowl game upcoming. Â Could they lose half of those? Â Probably not, but it’s not impossible.
#8 Oklahoma State (currently 10-0, #2 BCS)
The Cowboys just squeezed past Kansas State but still have Oklahoma coming up. Â I’m pretty sure they’ll lose that one. Â Will they get caught coasting @Iowa State?
#2 Alabama (currently 9-1, #3 BCS)
Alabama still has the Iron Bowl on the road or an actual bowl in January to get that second loss. Â Although, if Arkansas beats LSU, the Tide could find themselves in the SEC title game for another chance.
#7 Boise State (currently 8-1, #10 BCS)
The Broncos are coming off their first loss to TCU. Â In August, I identified the back-to-back TCU/SDSU games as a potential stumbling block. Â One down…
Already Right
#5 Florida State (currently 7-3, #25 BCS)
The Seminoles haven’t lost since I last updated this list. Â Good thing they choked early!
#9 Texas A&M (currently 5-5, unranked)
The Aggies have gotten brutalized in conference play lately. Â Good thing they’re leaving!
#10 Wisconsin (currently 8-2, #17 BCS)
The Badgers got stunned by late TD throws two weeks in a row on the road against Michigan State and Ohio State, a two-game stretch I singled out in August.
FraudWatch Update
These were undefeated teams through week 5 that I determined would lose a few games.
Projected Losses: 5+
1. Kansas State (8-2)
The Wildcats hung on to beat Texas A&M and will now need to lose all remaining games (Texas, Iowa State, bowl) to hit 5. Â Looks like they’ve dodged the bullet.
2. Texas Tech (5-5)
Since opening 4-0, the Raiders have lost every game except for a stunning 3-point upset of Oklahoma. Â This is how fraud teams work.
Projected Losses: 3-4
3. Illinois (6-4)
The Illini have lost four straight and close out with Wisconsin and Minnesota.
4. Georgia Tech (7-3)
The Yellow Jackets have Duke and Georgia remaining. Â That last one is probably a loss as the Bulldogs look to streak right into the SEC title.
5. Oklahoma State (10-0)
The Cowboys would have to lose out (@Iowa State, Oklahoma, bowl) to reach three losses. Â Probably not happening.
Projected Losses: 1-3
6. Texas (6-3)
7. Oklahoma (8-1)
8. Wisconsin (8-2)
Other Teams (0-2 Projected Losses)
LSU (10-0), Alabama (9-1), Stanford (9-1), Boise State (8-1), Clemson (9-1), Michigan (8-2), Houston (10-0)
BlogPoll Ballot Week #12
Men of the Scarlet and Gray Ballot – Week 12
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys |  1 |
| 2 | LSU Tigers |  -1 |
| 3 | Oklahoma Sooners | 2 |
| 4 | Oregon Ducks | 2 |
| 5 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 2 |
| 6 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 2 |
| 7 | Clemson Tigers | 2 |
| 8 | Stanford Cardinal | -5 |
| 9 | Houston Cougars | 3 |
| 10 | Boise St. Broncos | -6 |
| 11 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -1 |
| 12 | Georgia Bulldogs | 2 |
| 13 | Kansas St. Wildcats | — |
| 14 | South Carolina Gamecocks | — |
| 15 | Michigan St. Spartans | -4 |
| 16 | Wisconsin Badgers | — |
| 17 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 3 |
| 18 | USC Trojans | — |
| 19 | TCU Horned Frogs | — |
| 20 | Penn St. Nittany Lions | -5 |
| 21 | Michigan Wolverines | -2 |
| 22 | Southern Miss. Golden Eagles | -1 |
| 23 | Texas Longhorns | -5 |
| 24 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -2 |
| 25 | Florida St. Seminoles | — |
| Dropouts: Cincinnati Bearcats, Ohio St. Buckeyes, Auburn Tigers, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
This week I completely scrapped last week’s ranking. I discussed this heavily with SYR and this is what we’ve come up with. There will be questions. Please don’t hesitate to ask.
Train Wrecked
On a blustery day in West Lafayette, the Buckeyes had the opportunity to put themselves into the driver’s seat for a spot in the B1G championship game.
Instead, they spent three hours reminding us why Ohio State will spend a lot of time this offseason in search of new coaching.
It can’t just be me who has noticed – since the Cooper era – that Ohio State often comes out flat in noon kickoff games, and today was no different. It’s almost a university tradition at this point, and there has to be a rational explanation for it. Given the stakes of every remaining game this season it’s incomprehensible that a team that had so much to gain – and lose – could come out looking like Zach Galafanakis in both Hangover movies. If anyone has thoughts on this I would absolutely love to hear them. My opinion is that it all boils down to coaching. And today was by far the worst display of coaching that I have seen in my fifteen years of following Ohio State football.
I had a 1500-word post written to recap this game, and that was before it went to overtime. I’m tossing the entire thing out and replacing it with the following:
7 Penalties for 50 yards – almost every one of them impacted the game at a critical moment, and that doesn’t count the ones that were declined or offset.
5 sacks for -19 yards – indicative of the completely uninspired performance put forth by the offensive line.
One blocked XP (which would turn out to be the biggest play of the game) and a missed FG – either of those being good wins the game for the Buckeyes in regulation.
About three thousand missed tackles – reminiscent of the Miami game
Completely unimaginative playcalling – especially in the first half.
I’m not going to rag on the players today, even though by halftime Antonio Underwood had played the worst game I’ve seen by a lineman since Alex Boone in the 2006 MNC. Most of them are extremely young and are going to make mistakes. Think back to when you were 18. I know I did a lot of stupid things back then, and I bet you did too. I don’t expect Braxton Miller to be 2005 or 2006 Troy Smith just yet and I know he’ll throw a few BauserBombs (5 today by my unofficial count) along the way, but he’ll be great some day. Ditto with Roby, Shazier, and Devin Smith.
The bottom line is that this team came out and underperformed in every aspect of the game. They came out and didn’t make a positive play until early in the second quarter. The lone phenomenal play – Miller’s magical touchdown pass to Jordan Hall with 55 seconds remaining – almost immediately was stripped of its importance as the Buckeyes allowed Purdue to block the PAT attempt.
The entire debacle was just a giant, rolling ball of suck. And I wish I had spent the day punching myself in the nuts rather than watching it.
On the bright side, we now don’t have to worry about falling ass-backwards into a good bowl game and getting annihilated by a team with a competent coaching staff. So we’ve got that going for us. Which is nice.
Answering Jason’s questions from the preview…
1. Ohio State is averaging fewer than 9 completions per game and has earned honorary service academy status. Will the Buckeyes complete double-digit passes this week? Nope. 8/18 for 132 yards.
2. Purdue gives up nearly 260 rushing yards in games against teams with a winning record, about 8 fewer than Indiana. Last week, Ohio State produced 3 100-yard rushers against the Hoosiers. Will it happen again? No. They had 18 yards rushing in the first half. Total. The second half was a little better, but ultimately Purdue’s playing with a 6-man front ended up being effective enough.
3. The game is on Big Ten Network, so we should hopefully be spared of too much moronic announcing. Still, there’s only one topic in college sports this week and the team involved is playing at the same time as we are. How soon after the opening stadium shot does someone mention Penn State/Joe Paterno, how many plays do we miss due to cutaway coverage, and does anyone compare a decade-long cover-up of serial child rape to lying about ineligible players? Not that I heard. The coverage still sucked, being BTN
Purdue Preview
The last time Ohio State visited Ross-Ade Stadium, things didn’t turn out so well. Â Back in mid-October 2009, Purdue was 1-5 with only a season-opening win over Toledo to their name. Â On the other hand, the Buckeyes were 5-1 with just a 3-point loss to USC against them. Â Purdue won that day, thanks to some pretty hapless offensive play on our part (including 5 turnovers), and that is what makes Saturday’s game frightening for some. Â After all, I’m pretty sure Bollman actually has a formation called “Hapless.”
This year, we meet a little later and Ohio State is 6-3 and on a bit of a roll with three straight wins since the return of the still somehow underappreciated Boom Herron. Â Purdue is 4-5 and has lost three of their last four. Â It’s tempting to argue that this Purdue team is better than the one that broke their five-game skid against the Buckeyes two years ago, but it’s just not true.
Of the five losses that preceded their upset victory, only one (the 35-20 drop at Minnesota) came by more than a single possession, including a 2-point road loss to an Oregon team that would end up taking on Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Â The Boilermakers would lose two more games that year, a 37-0 trouncing at Wisconsin and a three-point loss to Michigan State at home. Â Only two of their wins were by less than a possession (and Ohio State would’ve needed the two-point conversion just to get to overtime). Â With just a little shift in luck, 2009 Purdue could have easily been an 8-, 9-, or even 10-win team.
Meanwhile, this year’s version has a good chance of ending up with the same 5-7 record (remaining games: Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana), but is simply not the same team. Â Already, the Boilers have two close wins this year (against Illinois and Middle Tennessee) and two close losses (at Penn State and at Rice) and have been blasted by Wisconsin, Michigan and Notre Dame.
Only two teams beat 2009 Purdue by a significant margin. Â Three have already done it this year with three games left to go. Â Luke Fickell, bound by the Coaches’ Code of saying things you don’t really believe in the name of motivation and focus, reminds us that Purdue is much better at home than they are on the road. Â And that’s true, technically. Â By the way, which of these teams would you say is the most like Ohio State:
Middle Tennessee
Southeast Missouri State
Minnesota
Illinois
Those are the four teams Purdue has beaten at home.
I get that the nightmarish memories of Purdue road trips in 2009 and 2004 make people nervous for tomorrow’s game, but keep in mind that the only player remaining that contributed anything of significance to the last meeting is Boilermaker RB Ralph Bolden.
The main thing that sticks out to me (statistically) is that in almost every game this year, Purdue is essentially a non-factor.  Teams tend to score and allow points near their season averages when playing the Boilers (only Illinois put up significantly fewer points than usual).  If that holds exactly true for Ohio State, the final score will be an appropriately vengeful 26-18.  Personally, I think the Buckeyes continue to improve and do a little bit better than that:  Ohio State – 30, Purdue – 14
Questions:
1. Ohio State is averaging fewer than 9 completions per game and has earned honorary service academy status. Â Will the Buckeyes complete double-digit passes this week?
2. Purdue gives up nearly 260 rushing yards in games against teams with a winning record, about 8 fewer than Indiana. Â Last week, Ohio State produced 3 100-yard rushers against the Hoosiers. Â Will it happen again?
3. The game is on Big Ten Network, so we should hopefully be spared of too much moronic announcing. Â Still, there’s only one topic in college sports this week and the team involved is playing at the same time as we are. Â How soon after the opening stadium shot does someone mention Penn State/Joe Paterno, how many plays do we miss due to cutaway coverage, and does anyone compare a decade-long cover-up of serial child rape to lying about ineligible players?
4. And, of course, what do you think the final score will be?
Failures of Courage
“Hey, Paterno’s been fired.”
The salacious and horrific nature of the allegations were notable enough, but their presence in the context of the PSU program was what elevated the story to stratospheric-levels. Paterno and PSU had built a “brand” of integrity and honor unrivaled anywhere else in major college sports. To see such a well-perceived institution involved in the most heinous of acts drew attention beyond that which would normally occur.
Humans notice when an ivory tower crumbles. In other words, we’re suckers for when the self-righteously high and mighty are humbled.
Buckeye fans had a small taste of this when our goody-two-shoes Senator Sweatervest was forced to resign, and the blue-and-white disciples of all things JoePa were first in line to serve up a dish of crow.
OSU supporters were subjected to the faux righteous indignation of a school and its fans that boasted ethical integrity while ignoring their own shortcomings: brutal physical assaults on guest fans, “urine bomb” attacks on opposing schools’ marching bands, 46 players racking up 163 criminal charges from 2002-2008 alone, and even murder, just to name a few.
That the players and fans were engaging in all these activities at the same time their coaches and administrators were allegedly engaging in and covering up pedophilia is all you need to know about the real Penn State culture versus the false, idealized Penn State brand.
But reality rarely matters. Humans like to see high-profile figures fall because that allows us to assuage our own internal resentment towards social hierarchies. Yes, the same cognitive process at the heart of the Occupy Wall Street movement is what causes human beings to crave seeing their mighty opposers fall.
That tendency also causes a rational blindness that makes humans tend to support their own ivory tower inhabitants, regardless of whether support is actually deserved. What’s more inappropriate than large crowds rioting in support of Joe Paterno?
Now, perhaps one can argue that Joe does deserve support; perhaps he does deserve acknowledgement of his legendary status and of his role in college football history.
But the difference is that those of us disconnected from the fanatical fervor are rational enough to know that there is a time for such things, and that time is NOT NOW. Those mobbing acolytes are doing nothing but disrespecting Sandusky’s victims. They should be ashamed.
Years from now, when the anger wears off and the maturity of adulthood has deepened, will those rioters realize that they were knocking down lampposts and turning over news vans in defense of the right to cover up pedophilia?
The same shame should be felt by the thousands of anonymous Internet supporters of Penn State and Joe Paterno. Posting in forums, you can tell who they are as they White-Knight their Grand Leader with reasonings like: “hey let’s all remember these are only allegations;” “Paterno didn’t do anything illegal, here, he’s just a scapegoat;” “We’re protected from NCAA violations, not like Tressel;” and the absolute worst, “obviously I feel bad for the victims BUT…”
It’s sickening.
In fact, one can argue that this type of devotion reveals an even-more-damning question: do these supporters share a certain level of responsibility here? The primary motivation for the alleged coverup was the protection of the Paterno and Penn State brand. That brand has now been exposed as a toxic illusion. But was Penn State nation (as a generalism) playing the role of “enabler” to some extent?
The JoePa Tower can’t be built without the mortar of abject irrational support.
He had to go. Not only for the moral aspects of it, but he gave the PSU Board of Trustees no choice. They are chartered with protecting the university, and Paterno had become a terrible liability to them. They did everything they could to keep him from speaking: they canceled his press conference, they surrounded him with protection, they ushered him into cars and chauffeured him to practice. They bent over backwards to keep him quiet.
But it was more important for Paterno to be heard than to protect his university. He was visibly upset that his press conference was canceled. He opened his windows at night and chatted with the crowd. And finally, after the Board was initially willing to discuss his retirement at the end of the season, he issues a statement saying “I wish I had done more.” Six words that will cost the university millions when they are (rightfully) used by the victims’ lawyers in the years to come. But just like in 2002, Paterno thought of no one but himself.
And it’s only just beginning for the PSU Board. Yesterday’s news that the Federal Government was initiating an investigation, on the basis of potential violations of the Clery Act, was likely the straw that broke the camel’s back.
For those suggesting that six decades earns the right not to be fired by phone call, consider that a simple phone call ten years ago might have ended all this before it began.
So while we rack our brains trying to figure out how this all will end, perhaps remembering the bigger picture can be a useful exercise:
It’s just a game, folks.
It’s a game. Played, coached, and watched by human beings. And as human beings, we all share responsibility for one other.
We all have the responsibility to protect innocence. We all have the responsibility to control our level of support for the leaders of any institution we patronize. We all have the responsibility to act courageously, even in the face of awkwardness, danger, or self preservation; because it’s the human thing to do.
Jerry Sandusky fails at humanity, for obvious reasons. But Mike Mcqueary, Paterno, Tim Curley, Gary Shultz, and many others failed as well. They failed to courageously defend the innocent.
In contrast, the victims that came forward (and the loved ones that supported them) have real courage. Courage to willingly suffer through the indignity and pain of reliving the most scarring event in one’s life, over and over again in front of strangers, grand jury members, and other authorities. To voluntarily subject yourself to that indignity, all in order to prevent other people from encountering the same suffering as what you endured, takes authentic human courage.
Against that, Paterno & Co. and their rationally-blind supporters are nothing more than cowards. These same hypocrites recite the stanza from the PSU alma mater: “May no act of ours bring shame/to one heart that loves thy name.” (Unless someone’s legacy and agenda gets in the way, apparently.)
At its core, this misery is due to greed and a failure of courage. Greed in one form or another: for personal satisfaction, for power, for money, for status, for 409 wins, for legacy. And cowardice: for being more afraid for oneself than for the innocent, for being more afraid of losing friendships and influence than doing what was right, for fear of being found out that your brand was a sham all along.
So go home, Paterno & Co. And go home, you irrational mob of Paterno acolytes who think a game is more important than anything else. Just go home, sit, and quietly ponder what it means to be human.
Maybe that’s good advice for all of us.
Purdue by the Numbers
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Presented, always, without comment. But not without emoticons: :/
As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.
Joe Pa Out At Penn State
As of right now. Not the end of the season, as we thought earlier today.
A lot of people think it’s a shame he’s going out like this, and I guess it is in a way. The man’s been coaching since the Spanish-American War. On the other hand, he was told that someone had been caught in the shower abusing a ten year old boy and never thought to call the cops. I’d say he earned this one.
As I said on the Twitters the other day, the order of people (in my opinion) in which they deserve our sympathy is as follows: 1 – the victims; 2 – the victims’ families; 500,000,000 – Joe Pa.
Poll Dancing: Week Ten, or Field Goal Of The Century
Sorry for the lateness of this week’s Dance. Â I’m still recovering from the riveting drama and unparalleled excitement of Saturday’s Game Of The Century between LSU and Alabama which–despite what that ad might lead you to believe–did not actually contain any of those show-offy “touch-downs” that are all the rage with the kids these days. Â How thrilling was the Greatest Game That Has Ever Been Played Since The Beginning Of Sentient Life, Including Imagined Contests And Computer Simulations? Â Well, let me tell you: one quarter actually saw two separate field goals scored in under five minutes!
But if you missed out on all that craziness, don’t worry–the BCS is working hard to make sure you get another chance. Â Thanks to the entire sports media universe pretending this was a great defensive battle, Alabama moved down from #2 to #3 in the BCS standings, ahead of Stanford and Boise State, who are actually still undefeated. Â Now, you’re probably cool with Bama being on top of Boise, and I’m not entirely against it either (although it makes it impossible to argue that this system is inclusive of non-AQ programs), but you may be wondering how they’re ahead of Stanford. Â Are you ready for Computer Bias?
Since no one is actually allowed to look at the computer formulas that make up that component of the BCS numbers, all we have to go on is what we can see.  And what we can see from looking at the difference in the human polls and the computers is a pattern that suggests that a pile of supposedly indifferent  machines somehow looks more favorably on SEC and Big 12 teams than those from other AQ conferences.
On average, an SEC team’s ranking in the computers will be 2.42 spots higher than it is in the polls. Â A Big 12 team will get a stunning 5.6 spot boost (this number would be higher if I could include Baylor, who sits at #19 in the BCS computers and is unranked by either human poll). Â Meanwhile, the ACC’s three teams rank 2.33 spots lower in the computers, the Pac-12’s two get dinged 3.25 spots, the Big East’s lone representative (Cincinnati) is 4 spots worse, and the Big Ten’s five teams are a whopping 7.8 spots lower. Â Of the 11 teams from these 4 conferences, just one actually sits higher in the computers than the human polls. Â That would be Clemson, checking in with a 0.5 spot bonus. Â By contrast, only one of the 11 teams from the SEC and Big 12 is ranked lower by the computers (Georgia, at -1.5).
The most reasonable argument for this would be strength of schedule, which one has to assume the computers are programmed to look at. Â However, this seems unlikely considering the three mid-major teams in the Top 25 (who unquestionably have easier schedules than any other ranked team) also benefit from the computers, besting their human rankings by 1.33 spots on average.
Granted, these numbers are based only on this week’s standings (although I noticed the discrepancy weeks ago), so it could be a coincidence. Â Then again, it’s no secret that Big 12 and SEC play for BCS titles a lot and that the computer portion is the only part of the formula that is completely hidden from the public (at least we know who votes in the human polls).
For the record, if it were entirely up to the humans, the top 10 would be:
1. LSU
2t. Oklahoma State
2t. Stanford
4. Alabama
5. Boise State
6. Oregon
7. Oklahoma
8. Arkansas
9t. Clemson
9t. Virginia Tech
For your patience, I give you Gorilla Fight Of The Century!
