Purdue Preview

The last time Ohio State visited Ross-Ade Stadium, things didn’t turn out so well.  Back in mid-October 2009, Purdue was 1-5 with only a season-opening win over Toledo to their name.  On the other hand, the Buckeyes were 5-1 with just a 3-point loss to USC against them.  Purdue won that day, thanks to some pretty hapless offensive play on our part (including 5 turnovers), and that is what makes Saturday’s game frightening for some.  After all, I’m pretty sure Bollman actually has a formation called “Hapless.”

This year, we meet a little later and Ohio State is 6-3 and on a bit of a roll with three straight wins since the return of the still somehow underappreciated Boom Herron.  Purdue is 4-5 and has lost three of their last four.  It’s tempting to argue that this Purdue team is better than the one that broke their five-game skid against the Buckeyes two years ago, but it’s just not true.

Of the five losses that preceded their upset victory, only one (the 35-20 drop at Minnesota) came by more than a single possession, including a 2-point road loss to an Oregon team that would end up taking on Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.  The Boilermakers would lose two more games that year, a 37-0 trouncing at Wisconsin and a three-point loss to Michigan State at home.  Only two of their wins were by less than a possession (and Ohio State would’ve needed the two-point conversion just to get to overtime).  With just a little shift in luck, 2009 Purdue could have easily been an 8-, 9-, or even 10-win team.

Meanwhile, this year’s version has a good chance of ending up with the same 5-7 record (remaining games: Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana), but is simply not the same team.  Already, the Boilers have two close wins this year (against Illinois and Middle Tennessee) and two close losses (at Penn State and at Rice) and have been blasted by Wisconsin, Michigan and Notre Dame.

Only two teams beat 2009 Purdue by a significant margin.  Three have already done it this year with three games left to go.  Luke Fickell, bound by the Coaches’ Code of saying things you don’t really believe in the name of motivation and focus, reminds us that Purdue is much better at home than they are on the road.  And that’s true, technically.  By the way, which of these teams would you say is the most like Ohio State:

Middle Tennessee
Southeast Missouri State
Minnesota
Illinois

Those are the four teams Purdue has beaten at home.

I get that the nightmarish memories of Purdue road trips in 2009 and 2004 make people nervous for tomorrow’s game, but keep in mind that the only player remaining that contributed anything of significance to the last meeting is Boilermaker RB Ralph Bolden.

The main thing that sticks out to me (statistically) is that in almost every game this year, Purdue is essentially a non-factor.  Teams tend to score and allow points near their season averages when playing the Boilers (only Illinois put up significantly fewer points than usual).  If that holds exactly true for Ohio State, the final score will be an appropriately vengeful 26-18.  Personally, I think the Buckeyes continue to improve and do a little bit better than that:  Ohio State – 30, Purdue – 14

Questions:

1. Ohio State is averaging fewer than 9 completions per game and has earned honorary service academy status.  Will the Buckeyes complete double-digit passes this week?

2. Purdue gives up nearly 260 rushing yards in games against teams with a winning record, about 8 fewer than Indiana.  Last week, Ohio State produced 3 100-yard rushers against the Hoosiers.  Will it happen again?

3. The game is on Big Ten Network, so we should hopefully be spared of too much moronic announcing.  Still, there’s only one topic in college sports this week and the team involved is playing at the same time as we are.  How soon after the opening stadium shot does someone mention Penn State/Joe Paterno, how many plays do we miss due to cutaway coverage, and does anyone compare a decade-long cover-up of serial child rape to lying about ineligible players?

4. And, of course, what do you think the final score will be?

Comments

  1. 1 – It seems doubtful to me…

    2 – Yes, with one caveat. Against Indiana, OSU reached 3×100+ easily, even considering Braxton’s -41 yards in sacks. Purdue is a much worse sacking team than Indiana (ranked 100th) so I don’t expect as many negative yard plays against them. Here’s the caveat: Hall’s been upgraded to ‘probable,’ so if he takes carries away from Hyde then OSU won’t get three 100 yard rushers.

    3 – Point two microseconds. Fifty. Yes.

    4 – OSU 34-13.

  2. 1. Ohio State is averaging fewer than 9 completions per game and has earned honorary service academy status. Will the Buckeyes complete double-digit passes this week?

    I think OSU runs (or passes) WILD and hits 14 passes…hey…a boy can dream, right?

    2. Purdue gives up nearly 260 rushing yards in games against teams with a winning record, about 8 fewer than Indiana. Last week, Ohio State produced 3 100-yard rushers against the Hoosiers. Will it happen again?

    I think Herron will have 100, Miller will have 80ish and Hyde/Hall will have 85ish combined.

    3. The game is on Big Ten Network, so we should hopefully be spared of too much moronic announcing. Still, there’s only one topic in college sports this week and the team involved is playing at the same time as we are. How soon after the opening stadium shot does someone mention Penn State/Joe Paterno, how many plays do we miss due to cutaway coverage, and does anyone compare a decade-long cover-up of serial child rape to lying about ineligible players?

    I’ll have the game on mute. The Big Ten in game TV people are TERRIBLE. I’d rather listen to Joe Paterno mumble about “certain things” again.

    4. And, of course, what do you think the final score will be?

    I’ve not been loving OSU’s defense this year. Their pass defense has been pretty bad…and at key times too.

    OSU: 34
    Purdue: 24

    Devier Posey can’t get back soon enough.

  3. 1. Yes, the pass game comes alive! Twenty completions. (Yes, I said 20)

    2. No, just Boom gets his hundy. See above.

    3. NO COMMENT.

    4. OSU 45 Purdue 10

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