Poll Dancing: Week Eleven, or Then There Were Two

If the season ended today, they would probably throw a party in the cobwebby underground BCS lair where a dozen of the most evil sports minds ever assembled tirelessly toil to make our lives as college football fans miserable.  With losses by Stanford and Boise State over the weekend, we have reached the system’s sweet spot of only two undefeated major-conference teams, the maddening situation that generally lets the abomination of a post-season off scot-free.

But it’s not over yet, and that’s very good news.  The primary thing to cheer for right now is an Oklahoma victory on December 3, when the Sooners take on the currently unbeaten Oklahoma State Cowboys.  This is not at all unlikely, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Oklahoma is the favorite going into that game.  They are easily the best team on Oklahoma State’s schedule.  Of course, the outcome of that game could be rendered moot by an Arkansas upset over LSU on Black Friday.  The Razorbacks have only one loss (@Alabama) and if they shock the Tigers, it would create a three-way tie atop the SEC West–complete with circular head-to-head–and those are always fun.  If not, then a surging Georgia might do it in the conference championship the following week.

Once again, it’s time to revisit some earlier prognostications and see how I did.

Pre-Season Pretenders Update

These were the teams from the preseason Coaches’ Top 10 that I thought would lose at least 2 games this year.

Wrong So Far

#4 LSU (currently 10-0, #1 BCS)

The Tigers have @Ole Miss, Arkansas, a possible SECCG berth, and a bowl game upcoming.  Could they lose half of those?  Probably not, but it’s not impossible.

#8 Oklahoma State (currently 10-0, #2 BCS)

The Cowboys just squeezed past Kansas State but still have Oklahoma coming up.  I’m pretty sure they’ll lose that one.  Will they get caught coasting @Iowa State?

#2 Alabama (currently 9-1, #3 BCS)

Alabama still has the Iron Bowl on the road or an actual bowl in January to get that second loss.  Although, if Arkansas beats LSU, the Tide could find themselves in the SEC title game for another chance.

#7 Boise State (currently 8-1, #10 BCS)

The Broncos are coming off their first loss to TCU.  In August, I identified the back-to-back TCU/SDSU games as a potential stumbling block.  One down…

Already Right

#5 Florida State (currently 7-3, #25 BCS)

The Seminoles haven’t lost since I last updated this list.  Good thing they choked early!

#9 Texas A&M (currently 5-5, unranked)

The Aggies have gotten brutalized in conference play lately.  Good thing they’re leaving!

#10 Wisconsin (currently 8-2, #17 BCS)

The Badgers got stunned by late TD throws two weeks in a row on the road against Michigan State and Ohio State, a two-game stretch I singled out in August.

FraudWatch Update

These were undefeated teams through week 5 that I determined would lose a few games.

Projected Losses: 5+

1. Kansas State (8-2)

The Wildcats hung on to beat Texas A&M and will now need to lose all remaining games (Texas, Iowa State, bowl) to hit 5.  Looks like they’ve dodged the bullet.

2. Texas Tech (5-5)

Since opening 4-0, the Raiders have lost every game except for a stunning 3-point upset of Oklahoma.  This is how fraud teams work.

Projected Losses: 3-4

3. Illinois (6-4)

The Illini have lost four straight and close out with Wisconsin and Minnesota.

4. Georgia Tech (7-3)

The Yellow Jackets have Duke and Georgia remaining.  That last one is probably a loss as the Bulldogs look to streak right into the SEC title.

5. Oklahoma State (10-0)

The Cowboys would have to lose out (@Iowa State, Oklahoma, bowl) to reach three losses.  Probably not happening.

Projected Losses: 1-3

6. Texas (6-3)

7. Oklahoma (8-1)

8. Wisconsin (8-2)

Other Teams (0-2 Projected Losses)

LSU (10-0), Alabama (9-1), Stanford (9-1), Boise State (8-1), Clemson (9-1), Michigan (8-2), Houston (10-0)