Archives for October 2010

2010 Blogpoll Ballot, Week #7 (Final)

A little late, with a couple tweaks.

Second look at the Indiana game.

So before the season started there was the annual Big Ten media days in Chicago. During those days, Coach Tressel said something that caused everyone in attendance to laugh. He said “he expects to be a “25 to 35 passing team,” and anything closer to that higher end could be historic.” In fact, by Tressel’s estimate, Pryor could wind up throwing the ball this season more than any quarterback in Ohio State history. No one believed him, maybe not even Pryor. Why anyone would think Tressel was joking is mind boggling at this point since one thing Tressel isn’t is a comedian. Fast forward to game 6 of the season and it is clear at least to this point that Tressel is the one having the last laugh.

For 3 years now all we have heard is Terrelle Pryor is a good running QB but a horrible passer. I think it really bothers TP to hear that and at some point he was able to convince Tressel it wasnt true and has since then worked hard to improve every aspect of that part of his game.

On Saturday he was 24 out of 30, 80%, for 334 yards and 3 TDs and 0 INTs. He also had 3 carries for -19 yards, all sacks.

On the season he is 104 out of 153, 68%, for 1349 yards and 15 TDs and 3 INTs. He has 57 carries for 354 yards and 3 TDs.

These are numbers that are surprising to almost everyone except Tressel. The guy can flat out coach and he has turned what once was an over hyped punk into a Heisman Contending Drop Back Passer. In the last 7 games alone, TP has gone from a late round project NFL draft pick after next year to a clear first day pick next year. (See Vince Young, JaMarcus Russel, and Jason Campbell if you dont believe TP is a first rounder).

He was able to pick apart a bad Indiana defense and check down to open recievers. Some may say, “so what, anyone could do that,” and I say TP couldn’t last year and that is the point. He is a completely different QB this year who can pass well and run when needed.

As for the running game folks we have a clear No. 1 RB now and a new team leading rusher on the season and it is Boom Herron: 12 carries for 68 yrds and 2 TDs. If he had more carries he would have broke 100 yards easy but we didn’t need him last week. Saine was moved to almost a slot receiver and he was great with 4 catches and 84 yards and a TD. Hall was the back up but didn’t do much. Here is where it gets tricky somehow Carlos Hyde moved up to 3rd string and was running well before he fumbled on the goal line. I was shocked to see him get more carries after that. (I think he may have naked pics of Tressel and is blackmailing him ;)) He finished a good performance with 9 carries for 48 yards and a fumble. Berry got to play and again showed great promise with 5 carries for 42 yards.

The receivers were really good with few drops and Posey and Sanzenbacher and Saine carrying the load and each getting a TD. With those 3 guys and the backups I feel great about the WR corp.

Defense as always solid and played amazing against the best passing team in the league. They absolutely shut down Chappell all game. They continue to be ball hawks getting TOs every game, in multiples. There is no real weakness and no real strength they are just solid all around and should be fine in every game. We just need to stay healty now with who we have left.

Overall I think we showed why we are the No. 1 team in the land and that a great team is always better than a great player on a bad team.

So here we come Wisky, pack your marshmallows with batteries and jump around all you want. We are coming to play a game we are more than capable of winning.

Poll Dancing: Week Six

(This is a guest series by MotSaG reader Jason Nafziger. He’ll be taking a weekly look at the college football polls and pointing out the absurd, the laughable and the head scratchers. Please note that Jason is not talking about the BlogPoll. Or my ballot to the BlogPoll.)

Yeah, that happened. The season has officially begun as the preseason #1 has been taken out, execution-style, by an afterthought of a team coached by a former legend who by all accounts would rather be golfing. Also officially beginning this week is the Harris Interactive Poll, the other poll that actually means something in the BCS formula and the one that insists its better to wait and see teams in action before judging where they stand. A noble and logical approach, to be sure, and one that certainly results in at least a couple major differences from the weekly preseason adjustment method the Coaches’ Poll uses, right?

Well…

Here is what waiting six weeks to make an “informed” decision gets you: Four variations between the two polls, each of which is merely a one-spot swap of two teams (Nebraska and TCU share the #4 and #5 slots, etc.) Hoo boy! Good thing you spent all that time collecting and poring over data, eh? I bet those coaches feel like a bunch of mountain rubes now!

1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Boise State

Both polls agree on the top three and if they all win out, only Boise is in real danger of getting jumped, should Nebraska or Oklahoma also go unbeaten. Things are shaping up for another messy situation for the BCS, which probably means the exact opposite will happen. A rematch of last year’s Rose Bowl would make an interesting title game and I know you’re all starving for another helping of Boise/TCU.

4. Nebraska
5. TCU
6. Oklahoma

Two mid-majors ranked before a single SEC team? Goodbye, Tebow, indeed.

7. Auburn
8. Alabama
9. LSU

Oh good, there they are! I was getting worried! Do you ever get the feeling that the voters use SEC teams like masonry mortar?

10. Utah

For those of you keeping score at home, that’s 30% Mid-Major, 30% SEC, 20% Big 12, 20% Teams That Will Play For The Title and not a single ACC or Big East team in the Top 10 (Florida State wanders in at #17, West Virginia at #25).

Next Week: Actual BCS Standings! There is some concern over certain prognosticators’ claims that our Buckeyes would be around #5 in the BCS right now. I don’t buy it, and I’m pretty confident that if Ohio State pulls out the win this weekend, they will be the BCS #1 come Monday.

It begins…

October 3rd, 2009: 4-0 UM loses to MSU, finishes 5-7.
October 9th, 2010: 5-0 UM loses to MSU…

Image source (super schadenfruede & language warning): The Enlightened Spartan

2010 Blogpoll Ballot, Week #7 (Draft)

This feels mostly good, but my gut feels tied in knots about ranking a one-loss team (at this point) over an undefeated team, but I just don’t know what to do with Alabama.

It also feels really weird ranking Michigan State that high. But where else would the be slotted? Below Bama and/or Utah?

Indiana plays against real defense..loses. Color Buckeye fans, as surprised

Fantastic Defense and Terrelle Pryor take care of business on Saturday against the Hoosiers.

The Good

  • Terrelle Pryor with his first 300-yard game as a Buckeye (334 yards to be exact).  Not really concerned about him running, as he really didnt need to pull the ball down and gain yardage.  Surely, TP will need to use his legs next week in Madison.
  • On that “TP not running front,” it was nice to see TP stepping up in the pocket to make some nice throws.  He is turning into a quarterback right in front of all of us.  The kid wants to get better…fo realz.
  • Silver bullets containing Matt Chappell to 106 yards passing on 16 completions with two interceptions.  Even the positive plays for Indiana looked like they were under duress.  The buckeye front four was really playing lights out and Nathan Williams is putting together one heck of a season.
  • Saine lining up as a wide receiver.  A welcome change for most buckeye faithful and it paid dividends.  Hopefully, he stays there for the remainder of the season and opens up more carries for Herron and Hall.

The Bad

  • The running game..still not so good..and OSU will definitely need it throughout next weeks game
  • Some moments of past Buckeye teams…delay of game after a timeout…srsly?

The Aftermath

  • South Carolina plays a gem of a game and knocks off Alabama.  You could see this one coming, but I am not sure anyone expected it to be as convincing as it was on Saturday.
  • OSU moves up to #1, but not without some media (ahem…Dodd) stating that is the easy way out for moving OSU up without considering Boise State or Oregon.  I dont believe it really matters, but Oregon has a great offense against teams that dont play defense in its own conference.  Boise State…dont get me started.  They will be lined up against a motivated team this bowl season.  Whether it is in the BCS National Championship or another BCS bowl, they wont be playing against a team that will take them lightly.  They want the spotlight.  They will get it.  Whether or not they can handle it when the spotlight is on them…that is a whole different story altogether.  I dont really see Alabama losing another game until the SEC Championship game.  The rest of this season is going to be a helluva ride.
  • OSU heads over to Madison this Saturday.  More on that later this week.  Unless you live under a rock, you already know this is a huge game.
  • Congrats to Sparty and Coach D.  Nice to see the hype come crumbling down when Shoelaces plays against a team that has anything resembling a pulse for a defense.

Week #6 Open Thread

Have at it. I’ll be AFK for most of the day, but I’ll be watching the game. GO BUCKS.

Week #6 Preview – Indiana

The 3-1 Indiana Hoosiers will ride into sun drenched Ohio Stadium (weather permitting) with one of the most high powered passing games in college football. The Hoosiers have the 12th best scoring offense in all the land and the 4th best passing offense to boot.

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Norman Dale would be pleased. God, he’s handsome.

Luckily for Ohio State, the Hoosiers are not coached by Norman Dale (because he only coaches basketball and even that was just for pretend). They are coached by Bill Lynch, who is insane:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tE8J7gZ6iC8

Lynch is more like Dennis Hopper’s character…the drunken slob that is forced to listen to the big game on the radio because he was an embarrassment to his team, the entire town and his own son.

But even Lynch, who is legally insane isn’t dumb enough to forget to call plays designed for his quarterback Ben Chappell to get the ball to one of the most underrated players in college football in Tandon Doss. Against the mighty Michigan defense (cough, cough) Doss had over 200 yards receiving. Last year against Ohio State Doss had 96 yards receiving and a score. Doss is also Indiana’s primary returner on punt and kick returns. He’s really good.

6-5 Demarlo Belcher is another weapon at Chappell’s disposal. Both he and Doss lead the Hoosiers in receiving. The running game which is ranked 99th isn’t a concern. Indiana will run their offense out of the spread and pistol formations almost exclusively. I’m sure they will have some tricks up their sleeves as well…perhaps the old picket fence?

With all the injuries to the Ohio State secondary Indiana should be able to move the ball on Saturday. Expect a high dose of quick screens and quick hitters to the aforementioned playmakers. The longer Chappell holds onto the ball the higher the chance he will be eaten by the Ohio State defensive line. With Tyler Moeller out for the season his position of star will be taken over by Christian Bryant who had 5 tackles in Moeller’s absence last Saturday.

Now, while that all sounds good and all for Indiana, let us look at who they have played thus far:

Stacking Up
Opponent
Wins
Losses
Scoring Defense
Passing Defense
Towson
1
4
D-1AA
D-1AA
Western Kentucky
0
4
118th
84th
Akron
0
5
113th
113th
Michigan
5
0
72nd
120th
Ohio State
5
0
11th
18th

It doesn’t take Jimmy Chitwood to see what sticks out with the above data. Ohio State has a really good defense, while the other teams on that list….suck. LOL at Michigan and their dead last pass defense.

On offense Ohio State will most likely be able to move the ball at will. Indiana has the 72nd ranked scoring defense, the 88th ranked defense for total yards given up, the 108th ranked rushing defense and the 47th ranked pass defense.

Look for Ohio State to look a lot like they did against Marshall. The weather on Saturday is supposed to be beautiful and with that comes a wide open offense. I look from Pryor to throw it 25-30 times and be limited by coaching when it comes to him running the football due to his injury. It should be a balanced run/pass attack with Boom Herron getting most of the workload and Brandon Saine and Jordan Hall fighting it out for carries after that. Don’t be surprised if Brandon Saine is the 3rd option at tailback after his horrible performance last week. This may be Jordan Hall’s “tryout” for the #2 tailback spot.

Prediction time — feel free to play along.
Final Score:
OSU-41
IU-20

I think Indiana will put together a couple nice drives and put some points on the board, but their lack of defense will be evident.

Ben Chappell over/under 300 yards passing: Under – barely…I think he get’s close only because he is playing catch up.

Guess the rushing yardage for these 4 players:
Pryor: 15
Herron: 110
Saine: 20
Hall: 65

Indiana by the Numbers

Statistically Speaking
Ohio State
Value (Rank)
Value (Rank)
Indiana
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 234.8 (14) 207.0 (108) Rushing Defense (ypg) Ohio State++
Passing Offense (ypg) 228.6 (54) 190.3 (47) Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 159.3 (15) 140.7 (99) Pass Efficiency Defense Ohio State++
Total Offense (ypg) 463.4 (21) 397.3 (88) Total Defense (ypg) Ohio State+
Scoring Offense (ppg) 44.2 (8) 25.0 (72) Scoring Defense (ppg) Ohio State+
Rushing Defense (ypg) 79.8 (7) 106.8 (100) Rushing Offense (ypg) Ohio State++
Passing Defense (ypg) 161.8 (18) 348.3 (4) Passing Offense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency Defense 99.4 (11) 161.3 (14) Pass Efficiency Offense Push
Total Defense (ypg) 241.6 (4) 455.0 (24) Total Offense (ypg) Push
Scoring Defense (ppg) 14.2 (11) 39.8 (12) Scoring Offense (ppg) Push
Turnover margin +1.8 (5) 0.75 (27) Turnover margin Push
Penalty Yards/game 28.6 (3) 32.8 (6) Penalty Yards/game Push
Sacks (/game) 1.6 (78) 1.0 (21) Sacks Allowed (/game) Indiana+
Sacks Allowed (/game) 2.0 (60) 1.0 (106) Sacks (/game) Ohio State
3rd Down Conv. (%) 38.8 (73) 35.6 (42) 3rd Down Conv. Def (%) Indiana
3rd Down Conv. Def (%) 28.8 (16) 54.7 (4) 3rd Down Conv. (%) Push
Redzone Offense (%) 93.6 (10) 88.9 (91) Redzone Defense (%) Ohio State++
Redzone Defense (%) 70.0 (17) 83.3 (59) Redzone Offense (%) Ohio State
 Legend
  Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
  Difference >25 in National Rank = Ohio State
  Difference >50 in National Rank = Ohio State+
  Difference >75 in National Rank = Ohio State++
  Differences >100 in National Rank = Ohio State+++

Presented without comment.

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

Second Thoughts: Illinois

What a strange game that was.

This second look post is going to concentrate mostly on the offense but let me just state that the defense is mostly fine (the loss of Moeller SUCKS but with Nate Oliver’s return, I think we’ll be okay) and let me state the obvious and say Jonathan Hankins is going to be a manimal for years to come. He is a space eater and manhandles opposing linemen. It’s a joy to watch the boy play.

Also, something not many people seem to be talking about is how the wind affected the passing game. Why is that? Doesn’t fit the narrative? Anyway…

(Once I looked at my notes, this was a hot mess. Hopefully I can sum up the situations and that they’ll still make sense).

Let’s talk about the running game (and the offense in general).

I tried to concentrate a couple things watching the game a second time — line push, line assignments and backs finding the hole. During the first quarter, I thought the line was able to get movement up front and actually opened holes for both Saine and Herron which were both missed. This is going to be a common theme for Saine but Boom’s vision got better as the game progressed.

During the second drive of the second quarter, the line opens a HUGE hole that Saine hits but then stutter steps just before the line of scrimmage, right before contact that never actually comes and is subsequently tripped. It’s little things like this that have been plaguing Saine. The pass blocking was mostly okay but near the end of the half, Shugarts whiffs on 3rd and ten block that could have sprung Pryor for a decent run, possibly picking up the first instead of surrending a sack. This came after two missed passes (a poorly thrown ball to Sanz and a Posey drop) that set some bad joojoo in motion.

On the next possession, after the two drops and a sack on the preceding three plays, Pryor needed to calm down. Unfortunately, he tries to force a pass on the very next play into triple coverage and throws an INT. This is a coaching issue here. If there is one serious knock against Pryor, it’s that he presses too much and then makes boneheaded decisions like this. This fact is amplified on the very next possesion to close out the half. The possession starts out with a designed QB run that Pryor gets big yardage, setting up a TD. This comes about 3 minutes too late. When Pryor allowed to use his athleticism, it usually results in a big play and usually calms him down.

The second half was strange and kind of a blur. Losing Pryor was scary, but it was amazing how quickly Tressel went into turtle mode. It’s a credit to Herron that he was able to carry the load. As monkey pointed out, Herron carried the ball 19 times for 89 yards. 4.7 yards a carry is exactly what Tresslball calls for when a lead needs protecting and your superstar is unavailable.

I would have said the offensive line, on a scale of 1 to 5 played at about 3.5. The outside blitzing that Illinois did was troublesome, with both tackles missing pick-ups while helping inside on the defensive ends. This is easily correctable and when the tackles did recognize the blitz, they were mostly able to neutralize it. I’d also like to point out some more obviousness: Boren doesn’t miss blocks and he is really good at pushing people out of the way. I think I saw maybe one missed assignment by Boren.

So what to do about these running backs. Saine is not seeing any running lanes. He isn’t playing to his strengths. He had multiple times to beat defenders to the corners and inexplicably cut things back to the middle of the field. It’s almost as if he’s lost confidence. Boom is still playing like Boom and a 4+ yard per carry average is solid but it isn’t flashy. It is what fans want to see.

So what do you want to see? Who would you rather see in the backfield on Saturday?

[poll id=”6″]