Archives for October 2007

Please explain the logic to me

OSU FootballJust so that I understand, here: As a college football fan, I’m expected to look down on Ohio State because its victories this year have all been against soft competition.

On the other hand, we have to look up to teams like USC, Cal, LSU, Oklahoma, etc. because they’ve had harder schedules — even though they all have a loss to soft competition.

Isn’t that sort of circular? Maybe a tad strawman-ish?

The teams that beat those powerhouses are Stanford, Oregon State, Kentucky, and Colorado. The nation’s “elite” didn’t lose to the tough teams on their schedule… they lost to three very poor and two fair-to-middlin’ teams; representing the weakest opponents on their schedules.

Again: OSU’s victories over weak competition are bad, and other teams’ losses to weak competition are good, only because the pundits say so.

And this seems logical to everyone? I must be missing something.

I know, I know, you say “Kentucky has a really good team this year. Find another example.” But compare KY’s game against Kent State to OSU’s game against that same team, and tell me that OSU’s victory wasn’t more impressive.

(The comparison is even stronger when you consider the fact that KY’s starters played the entire game against the Golden Flashes, while OSU did not play a single starter during the second half of its game.)

And if you can use such examples to prove that OSU is significantly better than Kentucky… and Kentucky just beat the “invincible #1 LSU Tigers zOMG-best-defense-EVAH”… well, then, you’ve used logic to **END CARRIER**

**TRANSMISSION STOPPED

**BY ORDER OF THE SEC AND ESPN

**OHIO STATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN AT WAR WITH EURASIA

**601

BlogPoll Ballot, Week #7

Football

Rank Team Delta
1 Ohio State 2
2 Oklahoma 7
3 South Florida 2
4 Boston College
5 Kentucky 10
6 LSU 5
7 South Carolina
8 Oregon 3
9 Arizona State 1
10 Missouri 4
11 California 9
12 Virginia Tech
13 Southern Cal 6
14 West Virginia 2
15 Kansas 2
16 Florida 4
17 Hawaii 3
18 Auburn 6
19 Tennessee 4
20 Virginia 2
21 Cincinnati 11
22 Georgia 4
23 Boise State 3
24 Kansas State 2
25 Indiana 1

Dropped Out: Illinois (#13), Wisconsin (#18), Connecticut (#21), Florida State (#25).

A few thoughts:

It pains me to see a dearth of Big Ten tems in the BlogPoll Top 25. Heck, I don’t even know if Indiana deserves the #25 spot, but someone else from the Big Ten needs to step up. Michigan is on the cusp in my book and will probably be up there next week if they take care of business. The sportsMonkey and I tried to justify that the Big Ten isn’t as weak as it’s perceived nationally, but we just couldn’t do it. Looking at everyone’s non-conference schedules was a dead-end. Looking at conference performance didn’t help, either. The truth of the matter is that we don’t really know how good (or bad) the Big Ten is and we won’t know until Bowl Season. The few good teams that Big Ten teams have played have almost all resulted in losses: Oregon over Michigan, Missouri over Illinois. Ohio State beat a decent Washington team, but Washington has come up short against its conference opponents, which cheapens Ohio State’s win.

That being said, Ohio State absolutely deserves to be in the discussion for the National Championship. It has the best defense in the country, bar none. The offense does more than just “not lose games.” Blogpollers shouldn’t punish OSU due to the perceived weakness of the Big Ten or for beating down weaker opponents. I read a blog comment earlier this week that I’ll repeat here: Some teams are good because they beat bad teams. Some teams are good despite beating bad teams. It’s not Ohio State’s fault that its opponents suck. They just surgically take care of business.

We only had three of our four “voters” get their ballots in on time, but I’m happy with how the top ten looks. I think Oklahoma is the best one-loss team in the country. South Florida is setting itself up for a fall, and the fall will be mighty. Prepare to see them out of the top ten soon. Ditto with Boston College. If the Big Ten is weak, the ACC and Big East ain’t far behind.

Comments? Suggestions? Feces to be flung in our direction? That’s what the comment box is for.

BCS stream of consciousness

OSU FootballUhh… seen the latest BCS standings?

 

thatjusthappened.jpg
“THAT. JUST. HAPPENED!”

Ferrell’s exclamation probably typifies the reaction of most OSU fans after watching this weekend’s chaos.

11-12-10-8-4-3-1. No, that’s not another “secret” code from a lame nighttime TV soap opera. That sequence represents OSU’s rise to the top of the polls from preseason to week 7. Buckeye fans will take it, but it’s not how we really wanted it. We wanted the team to sneak their way into the title game, like in 2002, or like Florida did in 2006. Still, though, the ranking is here, and time will tell if the young Buckeye offense can handle being the hunted week in and out.

“Yeah, but OSU hasn’t played anyone. It ain’t fair. LSU, Oklahoma, and California are probably better; and they’ve played against better teams.”
Perhaps that’s true. However, there’s something to be said about rewarding a team that did exactly what it was supposed to do, week in and week out, and punishing those who didn’t.

Besides, LSU, OK, and Cal didn’t lose to good teams, they lost to crappy ones! (Or at least ones that were mediocre at best). OSU has buried every similarly-tough team it’s faced this season. OSU has done what it was supposed to do. OSU is playing the most consistent football in the country. The other teams haven’t, and that’s why OSU is ranked above them.

Another consideration is “point differential” — the difference between a team’s total points and the points it gave up — which is as big an indicator as anything else of a team’s overall strength. Ohio State has a +204 differential. Oklahoma is nearly similar with +213. LSU’s is another tier down with +175. South Florida is +117.

Not been tested?
At any rate, the idea that Ohio State hasn’t been tested this season is arguable. For example, Washington is much, much better than its record reveals. The Huskies just drew the short end of the stick with an insane schedule in 2007 – playing against OSU, USC, Cal, Oregon, etc., etc. In addition, Purdue, Minnesota, even Northwestern came in with high-flying offenses, and OSU shut them all down easily. Even lowly Kent State came into the horseshoe with the #11 rushing offense in the country. Each time, the Silver Bullets have been totally dominant.

How dominant? The Buckeyes have not given up a single touchdown at home all season. Not one. We all know that Ohio State leads the nation in scoring defense — allowing only 6.6 points per game (ppg) — but what isn’t mentioned is that number includes a safety and a kickoff return for TD, points that the offense and special teams gave up. Not counting those 9 points gives the OSU defense a 5.3 ppg average.

Furthermore, if you were to discard two or three “garbage” scores in the final minute (about 17 points’ worth across three games), their performance is even more impressive. This is scary dominant. Historical dominant. NCAA record dominant. Time will tell whether any offense is good enough put up significant numbers on the Buckeyes this year.

So, when people say “the Buckeyes haven’t played anyone,” what they actually mean is that the Ohio State offense hasn’t been tested yet. We already know that the OSU defense can make it a game with anyone else in the country. What is unknown is how the OSU offense will respond when faced off against a team that has an effective defense.

When will we know?
That will be answered in two weeks, when OSU travels to Penn State to play against the Lions’ top-five scoring defense. OSU fans: if the Buckeyes leave Happy Valley with a victory, then it will be time to allow yourselves to get excited. This is the game when we will finally know how good the Ohio State Buckeyes are. Are they elite yet again, deserving of a BCS title shot? Or are they just “really good,” like LSU, USC, and the like?

Some interesting BCS trivia to note: in the ten years of the BCS, one of the teams ranked 1 or 2 in the first poll of the season has always made it to the BCS title game. In other words: if history is any guide, either OSU or South Florida will be playing for the title.

Is it too late to buy stock in antacids?

Week #7: Kent State Open Thread

OSU FootballIn a year of improbable upsets and amazing finishes, there have ceased to be many “gimme” games. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, this game against Kent State is most certainly one of them. A tasty little morsel before they bulldoze the rest of the Big Ten en route to a date with destiny.

First thing to get out of the way: Kent State’s head coach said that he wouldn’t play his starters the whole game so he could rest them for the rest of their upcoming (an extremely grueling) MAC schedule. What could be the impetus behind this? Is he prematurely conceding defeat? Yeah, probably, but that was conceded when they signed on the dotted line when this game was scheduled. He’s just reaffirming it. Are they challenging for the MAC title? Maybe, but it doesn’t look like it. Why would he do this? Seems like he’s making a big mistake. This may be the only chance some of these guys get to play in the Horsehoe in front of an hundred-thousand fans. It would be disappointing, especially if you’re an Ohio boy, for your coach to limit your time in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Add on top of that the number of improbable upsets where a team had no business winning the game did so. Haven’t Appalachian State, Colorado, Stanford, et al taught us anything? Come on, Coach Martin! Do the right thing.

Second thing to get to: Previews. You want ’em, you love ’em, we link ’em. Buckeye Planet, Eleven Warriors, our own stats on common opponents, and The O-Zone .

This game is on the Big Ten Network. I guess you Time Warner people are still out of luck, right? (Maybe more than you think) I personally have WOW and they just added BTN a couple weeks ago. But no HD BTN! Adding it this late in the season was too little, too late if you ask me.

Finally, the questions. I’m keeping this short and simple.

  • Final Score?
  • Will Ohio State finally record that elusive shutout? If not, why?
  • Will someone buy Anderson Russell some Stick ‘um?

el Kaiser
Final Score: OSU: 38 Kent State: 0
Shutout? Yup. See above.
Russell’s hands: I hope he does something. Maybe Little Animal can loan him his leather magnets from last year.

sportsMonkey
Final Score: OSU: 31 Kent State: 0
Shutout? Yes, the defense will pitch its third shutout of the year.
Russell’s hands: You gotta think statistics alone would require it happening sometime. He can’t drop them all, can he?

Sylvester Yon-Rambo
Final Score: OSU: 45 Kent State: 0
Shutout? The only way we dont get a shutout is that we will give up a kickoff return or punt return for a TD,
Russell’s hands:I think he will get 2 this weekend. They will both be in the first half.

I am leaving tonight heading to State College, PA with some guys from church. I will get to watch the Buckeyes’ game in one of their RVs. Thank goodness for satellites on RVs so I can see a Big Ten Network game. I will also have some major insight into both PSU and Wisconsin and will be the MotSaG man on the inside.

174 minutes, 23 seconds

leclaire.jpgcbjlogonew.jpg… since the French Alfalfa last allowed a biscuit into the net.

That’s 65 shots, if you’re keeping count.

Seven and a half periods.

Enough to bump Norrena from his spot as “road starter” this Saturday against Colorado, and enough to send Mason to London.

What is this unusual feeling? Is it… hope? Or just cautious optimism? Are Jackets fans allowed to get their hopes up in mid-October? How very splendid it is to start a season on a high note. Good work, fellas.

Collaborative Effort Paying OffColumbus Dispatch

 

Link Round-up, Week #7

Blog/site newsOSU FootballBuckeye Fever is sweeping the nation once again. Are you ready?

In a crazy season, why not the Buckeyes?

“Maybe, maybe not. But we do know this after six games: The Buckeyes are an efficient blend of passing and running wrapped in a two-ply steel coating of defense that is more than capable of winning big.”


Ohio State has championship look; opponent says defense has ‘no weakness'”

“Ohio State won the BCS title in 2002. That Buckeyes team relied on a dominating defense and an opportunistic offense. The 2007 version has a defense that might be better than the ‘02 crew.”

Rebuilding? Not these Buckeyes

“The biggest obstacle to Ohio State making its third BCS title game appearance in six seasons isn’t necessarily the schedule — Kent State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Illinois are all in Columbus, while OSU is on the road against enigmatic Penn State and Michigan — but perception.”

Opportunity knocks

“Still coach Jim Tressel isn’t ready to crown this his best OSU defense.

‘They are a good defense,’ he said. ‘They’ve got to make sure they keep getting better.’

A frightening thought.”

LSU is No. 1, but who’s the second-best team?

“Meanwhile, Ohio State has the team and the pedigree. The Buckeyes just keep motoring along, knocking off would-be threats like Purdue. They’re a lot better than the roadblocks they have coming up – Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan – yet all of those teams have enough national credibility so that the Buckeyes will impress the pollsters after they roll over them.”

At Least They’re Not Going To Play Florida

“Sorry everyone, but Ohio State might just end up back in the national championship game with a better team, and you’re not going to see it coming.”

So here we are, looking at week seven, a weak Kent State ahead of us and people around the country proclaiming the Sugar Bowl matchup of LSU and Ohio State. Are you buying it? Does it make you nervous? Do you have nightmares of that insane SEC speed haunting you still?

Weekly Vernon Gholston shot

Vernon G.

Purdue (body) Performance Evaluations

Today we’ll see how the Body Buckeye is doing. All signs point to: Pretty Darn Good.
sweatervest.gifsweatervest.gif

Anderson Russell’s Hands: 2 Sweatervests

At first glance, it’d be hard to single out Russell’s hands as the sole culprits for the lack of the INT against Purdue (Keith counted six) but this wasn’t the first time Anderson has pulled this stunt. His traitorous hands have been dropping balls all over the place. I don’t how many it’s been so far, but he could have been writing his Thorpe Award acceptance speech if he would just CATCH THE BALL. The only thing saving his hands from receiving the dreaded One Sweatervest is that he can, apparently, use his hands to do other defensive things, like sack the QB. His two sacks were a welcome sight.
sweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gif

Beanie Well’s Ankle: 4 Sweatervests

The coaches want Beanie to be a warrior. A soldier, if you will. They want him to fight through the pain and play like a man. Twisty-bendy ankles ain’t no thang! Luckily, cameras were rolling when his injured ankle was interviewed after the Purdue game, and we have obtained the tape. In a MotSaG exclusive, I present to you: Beanie’s Ankle.
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Todd Boeckman’s Arm: 2.5 Sweatervests

Is it an arm? Or a punting leg? A parm? Either way, Todd Boeckman’s arm suddenly became a rocket launcher, throwing passes everywhich way downfield, except into Robo’s hands. As it’s been pointed out in many places, the interceptions didn’t hurt because of the location of said interceptions. “They were just like punts!” they proudly exclaim. Thing is, we have a pretty decent punter. He doesn’t get a lot of chances to actually punt, so it’d be a good thing to keep the interceptions to a minimum and leave the punting up to the punter. Thunder arm must keep things under control. Heck, underthrowing Robiskie was working before, he could always go back to that.
sweatervest.gif

Vernon Gholston’s Biceps: 25″ Sweatervest

You knew it was coming. The guns pipes pythons “Dear Lord! Are those thighs?” that dangle from his dangerous looking delts were in full-effect. He was even lining up inside Robert Rose, which had to strike absolute fear in Purdue’s guards. Certainly they thought they would be spared the wrath of His Bicepness, but they were not so lucky.
halfsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gif

Overall Performance: 4.5 Sweatervests

Baseline: 3 Sweatervests, +2 for stifling defense, +1 for jumping all over Purdue early, -1 for SIX dropped passes, -0.5 for giving up the garbage TD.

Et tu, Bruce?

FootballFolks, ESPN is at it again, desperately trying to convince us that the Buckeyes (and the rest of the Big 10) are only nuts in a SEC-squirrel filled world. Case in point, the “ESPN Mid-Season Reports,” a collection of articles bashing every conference but the SEC.

Columbus writer Bruce Hooley was hired to belittle the Big Ten; and to prove he wasn’t a homer, he quickly regurgitated all the oft-debunked ESPN talking points.

It’s an exercise in futility, I know, to descend into the “line-by-line-reponse” realm common in the sports blogging community. It’s our turn, though. Time to go on the record – for whatever it’s worth.

Naturally, he starts with the Wolverines:

Michigan, ranked fifth in the preseason, became the first top-five team ever to lose to a Division I-AA opponent when Appalachian State upset the Wolverines in Week 1. Just to prove that was no fluke, Michigan got rolled the next week by visiting Oregon.

Yeah, you’d start with Michigan, too, if you wanted your later pathetic argument to be perceived more persuasively. (By the way: Thanks a lot, UM.)

Michigan State bragged about its rebirth after starting 4-0. But the Spartans have since lost at Wisconsin and home against Northwestern, proving that things might not be so different under new coach John L. Dantonio. Sorry, make that, Mark Dantonio.

Oh, SNAP. See folks? If you’re 4-2, and one of those losses came against a top-five team, your coach is compared to John L. Smith. Oh, and if you’re wondering, five teams in the SEC are 4-2, including Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. But ESPN says that’s only because of the conference’s “parity.”

The Badgers were so unimpressive [in their victory against the Citadel], they were branded a 2½-point underdog at unranked Illinois. Deeply wounded by that slight, Wisconsin went out and defended its honor by losing.

Sorry, you’ll need to aim an electron microscope at that paragraph in order to see what Hooley’s point is. Luckily, I have one, yet all I was able to find was a few atoms of rhetorical nonsense orbiting a flawed molecule of assumption. Still, after much analysis, I think I was able to detect two points: (1) that Wisconsin struggled against Citadel, and (2) that they were underdogs to Illinois, both of which make the Big Ten bad.

I guess he never watched Florida struggle against Ole Miss. Or South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama struggle against… pretty much everyone in or out of conference.

Still, Hooley’s words sound witty and clever, so that means he’s right… right? Certainly it couldn’t be that Illinois is good, right? I mean, they weren’t ranked in the preseason or anything. Ergo, Illinois victory is used as part of the proof that the Big Ten is weak. I mean, if the Big Ten wasn’t weak, then the Badgers would have won that game, right? But wait a second… then Illinois would have lost to a team that struggled against other teams… which would have made the Big 10 look weak… I’m so confused, here. (But then again, perhaps that’s what Bruce was hoping for.)

In today’s lesson, we’ve learned about circular logic. Oh, and speaking of Illinois (snap your helmet tight here, folks):

Now, if you listen really hard, you can hear the laughter all the way from SEC country. Why? Because down South, there could be no bigger indictment of the Big Ten than the fact that Ron Zook has built the second-best team in the league in just 2½ years.

Yeah. It’s a good thing he brought all those southern players with him too, Bruce. Oh, you meant at least he recruited them. Oh, that didn’t happen either? Hm. Oh, you were trying to imply that a Big 10 coach with a southern background would always perform better than his SEC counterpart from a northern background? Les Miles might have a problem with that.

No, what you meant, Bruce, is that clearly Illinois’ strength can’t be tied to the Big Ten, on the sole basis that it would upset your argument. Dolt.

But wait, folks!! He’s changed his mind!

Illinois quarterback Juice Williams has courage, charisma, elusiveness and the passing touch of a longshoreman, as evidenced by his 54.9 completion rate.

…which is still better than a lot of SEC QBs, including the one leading the 7th ranked team in the nation. A pointless stat, meant only to further imply that it isn’t the admirable performance by the Illinois players, just that of their (southern) FANTASTIC (southern) COACH (from the south) that’s responsible.

Given that abundance of mediocrity, Delany’s perpetual stonewalling of a national championship playoff is savvy. Why would he ever bend to that when, the way things are now, an unbeaten Big Ten team need only land a haymaker in the title game to take home the crown? That’s infinitely easier than advancing through a four-, eight- or 16-team bracket against leagues that — imagine this — have more than one team that’s a consensus member of the top 15.

Words escape me.

Wait, I’ll scrounge some up. Ahem. The same thing could be said of any team in any conference not playing in a playoff system. Which means all 115 teams in Division I-A (or FBS, whatever). Why Hooley thinks the above scenario is only applicable to the Big Ten, and therefore proof of Big Ten mediocrity, is something I’ll leave to you as an academic exercise. Or a drinking game.

Until then, I’ll leave you with a few rare, wise words:

If there’s two things I’ve learned during my time on this beat, it’s that the SEC is positively, indisputably the greatest conference in the history of mankind, and little things like logic, facts and common sense have no bearing whatsoever on this distinction.

Tennessee beats Cal last year? Yet another feather in the SEC’s cap. Cal beats Tennessee this year? Completely irrelevant. USC beats Auburn 23-0 in 2003? That wasn’t one of Auburn’s better teams. Auburn goes 12-0 the next year and gets left out of the BCS title game? A crime against humanity, seeing as the Tigers obviously would have beaten the Trojans. Big East champion Louisville comes within an offsides call of edging SEC champ Florida out of last year’s BCS title game? Exhibit A why the whole system needs to be blown up. The fact that Big East champion West Virginia beat SEC champion Georgia in the Sugar Bowl just a year earlier? Eh — the Dawgs weren’t up for that game. Les Miles calls out USC’s “soft” Pac-10 schedule? Well … duh. But wouldn’t that make SEC divisional champion Arkansas — whom the Trojans beat 50-14 just a year earlier — even softer? No, because Darren McFadden wasn’t healthy, and he’s obviously capable of producing 36 points on his own. Florida beating Ohio State like a rented mule in last year’s title game? Indisputable confirmation that the Big Ten can’t hold a candle to the SEC. The fact SEC teams lost their other two bowl games against Big Ten foes? Never happened.

So basically… I wouldn’t waste your time with one of those futile debates. Just accept the SEC’s eternal superiority for what it is and we can all go back to watching The Pick-Up Artist in peace.

Now that’s persuasive. And no, that last bit wasn’t Hooley, it was Stewart Mandel.

Data on Common Opponents – Kent State

OSU FootballYes, dear, there actually is a common opponent between OSU and Kent State – the Akron Zips.

The tables include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Kent State

  Pts Pts (opp) Yds Yds (opp) Frst Dwns Dwns (opp) TOs TOs (opp)
Akron 20 27 375 245 15 16 4 2
TOTAL 20 27 375 245 15 16 4 2
Average 20 27 375 245 15 16 4 2

 

Table 2: Ohio State

  Pts Pts (opp) Yds Yds (opp) Frst Dwns Dwns (opp) TOs TOs (opp)
Akron 20 2 363 69 18 3 5 1
TOTAL 20 2 363 69 18 3 5 1
Average 20 2 363 69 18 3 5 1

 

Notes:
You see, this is what’s awesome about comparing apples to apples. Look at how the OSU and Kent State offenses performed against the Akron defense… their numbers are almost identical. Interesting.

As for the two points the Buckeyes gave up? I feel a jaunty haiku coming on:

Beanie’s curs-ed knees
Down in the end zone so said
BTN replay

Tell us what you think. (About the numbers, not the poetry.)