When 38-7 is better than 31-13

OSU FootballThe folks over at the M-Zone have posted an interesting article on the inherent faults in using score to determine rankings.

They argue that, to a superficial poll voter, UM’s 17-10 victory over Penn St. “looks” worse than OSU’s 28-6 victory over the same team, even though UM played a more thorough game against the Lions than OSU did. I believe they have a valid point on the rankings issue.

However, comparing OSU to UM by their performances against Penn St. is comparing apples to oranges. The OSU/PSU matchup occurred during a mini monsoon. Over half an inch of rain fell during the game, mixed with 24 mph winds. Not exactly conducive to OSU’s spread offense! Something else to consider is that UM didn’t play against Morelli for a full game. Who knows what might have transpired if Morelli had been behind center, during PSU’s fourth-quarter rally?

Instead, an “apples to apples” comparison of OSU/UM should use the Spartans as the common opponent. Both teams have a long history of tough, close games against MSU. The weather was a non-factor for both games. And, both games occurred in back-to-back weeks for Sparty. The only major difference was that UM had the game at home, while OSU travelled to East Lansing. Other than that, it’s a pretty fair comparison.

So, with that in mind, here are some relevant stats:

Offenses vs. MSU defense

OSU’s offense rolled up 421 yards, UM got 351. Also, the Buckeyes got their standard four offensive touchdowns. Carr’s offense was credited with four TDs, but for the purposes of comparing OSU and UM, we can all agree that UM only managed three “real” TDs (no, it’s not a touchdown when you catch the ball and half your body lands out of bounds). OSU rushed for 182 yards, UM for 211. Smith passed for 234 yards at 68.2%; Henne, 140 yards at 64.7%.
— Advantage: OSU —

Defenses vs. MSU offense

Both allowed ~60 yards rushing (UM 60, OSU 63), but UM’s pass defense was exploited for over 250 yards. As a result, UM allowed a total of 312 yards, while OSU allowed 198. The Bucks forced eight punts; the Wolverines forced four.
— Advantage: OSU —

Special teams vs MSU

Both teams went 1 for 1 on FGs, but TGII returned another punt for an OSU TD.
— Advantage: OSU —

In summary, OSU played a much more impressive game against the Spartans than Michigan did. UM was impressive against MSU, but it wasn’t the utter domination that the Bucks employed the following week. Also, it’s worth repeating again that UM had the Spartans at home, a luxury that OSU did not have.

It’s also worth noting that Michigan’s earlier game against the Gophers also revealed some weaknesses in the UM defense and game plan. Big Blue gave up more rushing yards against the Gophers than all of their previous opponents combined, and Payne had a big day against the UM secondary. Most importantly, though, was Carr’s refusal to put Minnesota away, which allowed Minnesota to rally late in the game. (Yet another team that UM has allowed to rally in the fourth quarter!)

IMHO, UM is one of the three most consistent teams in the country, along with OSU and Texas. UM has shown itself to be beatable, though. The rushing defense is among the best, but hasn’t yet played against a team that moves the pocket, has a mobile QB, or has a speedy “scatback” type of tailback. Also, the secondary is giving up way too many yards (they’re 74th in pass defense).

To prove my point, consider the following question: Would fans of Big Blue feel confident heading into a fourth quarter tied with an Iowa or Ohio State? As an OSU fan, I know I would. What happens when Michigan plays a team that has success against Hart? (Yes, it will happen sometime.) Would fans feel confident putting the game into Henne’s hands? The 50% CPR performance he put up against PSU is not enough to cut it against a good defense, and definitely not good enough to challenge whatever team makes it to Glendale.


Lloyd Carr, Ron English, and Mike DeBord prepare the game plan for Ohio State.

Clearly, some of the coaching issues that were present last year are still there. Right now, UM’s talent is winning games, not the coaching. Consistency from the defensive front four and from Hart is what’s currently keeping the UM season alive, but Carr and his assistants are making the same mistakes all over again. If I was a UM fan, I’d worry about what will happen when the team encounters a defense that can corral Hart, or that has no problem moving the pocket for the entire game.

Plus, keep in mind that Carr hasn’t had any of his regular-as-clockwork “big chokes” yet… which should make any UM fan nervous enough. The longer they take to happen, the more likely they’ll happen against the good teams UM will face at the end of the season.

OSU/MSU – Semi-live Update

End of the first half
I think I just heard Bob Griese say that the reason Michigan State isn’t on the board is not because of Ohio State, but because of their own ineptitude. Huh? That’s simply a huge slap in the face of OSU’s defense. They can not block Quinn Pitcock, Laurinaitis is every where and I don’t think the secondary has had to make a tackle because the front-7 are so dominant.

And how nice was it to see Ted Ginn Jr take a punt to the house? That was great to see and there was no doubt he was gone after he took a few strides. Beautiful. Gonzalez has made two nice grabs. The Buckeyes are playing a great game, 24 – 0.

End of the game
Final Score: OSU: 38 MSU:7

Not a lot to udpate. A couple more touchdowns, the domination is complete. It would have been nice to see a shut-out, but that’s tough to do when you’ve got your third stringers in there. Nevertheless, this was no trap game. Ohio State was never on “upset alert.” This game was never in doubt, even after Beanie’s fumble in the first quarter. Troy padded his Heisman resume with another “Heisman-esque” touchdown pass to Robiskie with a Spartan defender biting at his ankles. The guy never seems rushed, never harried. Can’t say enough about the guy.

So now the downhill roll to November 18th officially starts. Next week welcomes Indiana to the show. IU is coming off a HUGE upset of Iowa, but there’s no way they come into the ‘Shoe and do that to the Buckeyes. Ohio State will be ready.

Week #7 – Michigan State – Open Thread

After dispatching with Bowling Green, OSU turns its eyes back on to the Big Ten. Are they looking ahead to the showdown in November? What can we expect from the train-wreck that is Michigan State? WhiteDawg at Double Duece has a preview with some good links. Tony Gerdman’s preview is up at The O-Zone and Buckeye Planet has an exhaustive preview as well (complete with a cowboy who can’t stop slapping himself).

And what about previous upsets that MSU has unexpectedly thrown on OSU? I was there, in the Horseshoe, in 1998. I’ve never spoken of the horrors I saw that day, and never will. I’ll never forget the feeling, though. It was a strange feeling to be surrounded by 90k+ people and hear a pin drop. But that ain’t happening this year. This Buckeye team is better coached and just as talented as the ’98 squad. The ’98 MSU team was coached by Nick Saban, not the unpredictable John L. I am predicting a big win in East Lansing. The dogs will not be called off this weekend.

Vegas has the line at 14 points. I thought it would be more than that. Do they know something we don’t? Maybe since the Buckeyes didn’t cover the spread last week (after covering it the first five weeks) they’re a little gun shy. What say you?

What about these questions:

Last week was the first game since early 2005 that the Buckeyes didn’t beat the spread. Will OSU ‘return to form’ by beating the spread again? O/U: 14 pts

In the 2005 OSU/MSU matchup, Drew Stanton was sacked 12 times. How many sacks does the OSU defense get this week? O/U: 6

Troy Smith is set to break the Big Ten record for career QB rating. What will Troy Smith’s completion percentage be? O/U: 72%

Will Ray Small see the endzone again this week? O/U: 1

el Kaiser’s predictions:
Final Score: OSU: 42 MSU: 6 (I see a butt-whipping happening tomorrow)
Spread: Waaaay over, 36
No. of Sacks: over, 9 (Pittcock makes up for Patterson missing a game a dedicates to sacks to him)
Troy’s completion %: under, 67%
Ray Small will see the end zone again. Twice (over)

sportsMonkey’s predictions:
Final Score: OSU, 38 – 10
Spread: Over, 28 pts.
No. of Sacks: Under, 5
CMP %: Under, 69%
Ray Small TDs: Even, 1

Zeke’s predictions:
Final Score: OSU: 31 MSU: 13
Spread: Over, 18 pts.
No. of Sacks: Over, 7
Troy’s completion %: Over, 80%
Ray Small will see the end zone again. Under, 0

Sylvester Yon-Rambo predictions:
Final Score: OSU: 23 MSU: 21
Spread: Under, 2 pts.
No. of Sacks: Under, 3
Troy’s completion %: Under, 53%
Ray Small will see the end zone again. Under, 0
I dont see us playing very well tomorrow. It will be very cold and there will be a lot snow on the ground and probably during the game as well. I cant help but remember 1998 and it makes me feel sick to my stomach everytime we play MSU. I hope I am dead Wrong and EL KISER is dead Right. Go Bucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quick wrap-up of Bowling Green

There wasn’t much to say after the Bowling Green game. We came, we pretty much had our way, and we won. Our predictions, however, merit a second look:

Vegas has the line at 35 points. The Buckeyes have covered the spread each week. Do you think they do it again?
The final score was 35-7, so the Buckeyes didn’t cover the spread.

The closest prediction to the final score was the sportsMonkey. The rest of us were off

How soon do we see Zwick come in? (o/u middle of the 3rd quarter)
Again, no one had this one. Zwick came in for a series in the 2nd quarter after Troy Smith came up hobbling. Luckily it wasn’t anything major, but Zwick saw playing time a lot sooner than anone thought.

No one got this one right.

It almost seems improbable, but does Laurinaitis continue his streak and pick off another pass?
It would have been nice to see the Little Animal continue picking off passes but it wasn’t meant to be.

el Kaiser and Zeke got this one right.

Pittman will get his carries, but it’s possible the backups get more. Do Wells and Wells out-gain Pittman?
Pittman only touched the ball 12 times on Saturday, for 58 yards. Wells and Wells combined for 27 yards. Not the huge ground game we expected, but it wasn’t really necessary to run against BG.

We were all off on our yardage predictions but every but the Monkey got this one right.

The offense could potentially rack up big numbers. How many? (o/u 550)
The Buckeyes dominated the game but the offense didn’t run as smoothly as we would have liked. They racked up 387 total yards. Playing on a short field, as Zeke predicted, played a role as well.

The sportsMonkey got this one right.

Results:
el Kaiser (2-5) (3-8 overall)
Zeke (2-5) (4-8 overall)
SYR (1-5) (1-5 overall)
sportsMonkey (2-5) (2-8 overall)

I know I said I’d get the other predictions updated but I haven’t got to that yet. This weekend!

Speedy Gonzalez

OSU Football
Okay, so that title was lame. But honestly, if it’s Hispanic Heritage Month, what’s wrong with a little stereotyping, right? I mean seriously, who hasn’t seen #11 fly down the sideline and not yell “Arriba, arriba, andale, arriba!” Right? He’s fast, he’s speedy. He’s speedy Gonzalez.

Speedy

I digress.

As a fellow “Hispanic” I was surprised to find out that this month is Hispanic Heritage Month. At least that’s what ESPN is celebrating, and they’ve got a nice article (a huge, sombrero-sized hat tip goes to MotSaG contributor Sylvester-Yon Rambo for the link) on Columbus’ favorite Cuban, Anthony Gonzalez.

Anthony Gonzalez

Oh, you didn’t know he was Cuban? Join the club. I figured he was Hispanic (His last name is Gonzalez. Hello?) but I had no idea he was Cuban. Anyone that fast has to have Latin blood in him, right? I kid, I kid.

Anyway, it’s a great read about Gonzo’s family (his grandpa stormed the presedential palace with Fidel!), his love of Cuban food, and dealing with stereotypes. Something we all have to deal with, in our own ways. I’m glad to read that Gonzo handles it gracefully. I know Mrs. Kaiser always get upset when the neighborhood ladies talk bad about the Mexican landscapers. “Fricken Mexicans broke my mailbox. I know they did,” they’ll claim. Fricken Mexicans.

“Yeah, my husband’s Mexican,” Mrs. Kaiser thinks to herself, “and he’s always breaking mailboxes. It’s like a Mexican tradition.” (Yes, el Kaiser is chicano. Hence el Kaiser, not The Kaiser.)

So we all deal. I’m sure Gonzalez’s fair skin (most likely from his German mother) gives him an advantage, but he doesn’t shy away from his heritage, his roots. None of us should.

So check it out, it’s a great read. There’s also a video of Gonzo cooking his specialty, Arroz con pollo. Looks pretty tasty. I wonder if he has to follow the high altitude directions on the box?

OSU vs. Indiana on ESPNU ONLY!

Well Buckeye fans, unless you have ESPNU you will not be able to watch the Indiana game on October 21st. Click here for details.

Update: According to SYR, ESPNU is not available via Time Warner. Looks like those with out a dish are out of luck.

Ginn & Gonzo… 24/7

OSU FootballA slightly rougher version of this image of OSU’s G2 has been going around the interwebs. Thus, we don’t claim originality, but we did tweak & refine it a bit.

gonzoGinn

Original image copyright Jim Davidson @ the O-Zone.

The best QB in Big Ten history

OSU FootballNo… this is not just an opinion. With his most recent effort, Troy Smith’s career QB rating is 158.1, making him the all-time Big Ten leader among quarterbacks.

Smith’s rating has been leading all along, but only in the past few weeks has he surpassed the career 300-completion benchmark recognized by the NCAA for record consideration.

Smith completed 85% of his passes against BGSU last Saturday, including three TDs and no INTs. All of that even though he only played for two quarters, and a single series in a third.

Here are a few relevant stats of his season so far:

Against Comp% TD INT Rating
NIU 72.0 3 0 211.39
@ Texas 65.4 2 0 177.68
Cincinnati 70.0 2 0 148.84
Penn St. 54.5 1 2 95.27
@ Iowa 64.0 4 0 179.3
BGSU 85.0 3 0 214.72

The PSU game is the only aberration in the above table. However, those who saw the OSU/PSU matchup remember the flooding rains that occurred during the game (and no, we’re not just talking the flood that came from Joe Pa’s pants). I’ll let your level of OSU love/hatred determine how much slack you should give Smith for that game — but you’d be lying if you said OSU’s opponents aren’t doing rain dances every Friday evening.

As someone who’s been watching Smith since he was a young’un, his most impressive stat to me isn’t available via ESPN or CFBstats.com. The most impressive thing about Smith is (1) that he doesn’t make bad decisions, and (2) he plays his best in big games.

Troy SmithTo me, Smith is an amalgamation of the best parts of all the OSU quarterbacks from the past decade. He’s got Stanley Jackson’s feet, Joe Germaine’s arm, Craig Krenzel’s leadership, and his own unnatural football instinct and athleticism. Watching him is, well, just plain “satisfying.” I don’t worry about him making some stupid decision to throw the ball into triple coverage, or pounding into a linebacker headfirst, or taking a 20 yard sack instead of throwing the ball away. One gets the impression that the entire game moves in slow motion to him.

And it seems like #10 is just hitting his stride. In 2004, he flipped the switch at the end of the season. In 2005, he also peaked at the end of the season. And, as OSU prepares to head into the last half of this 2006 season, check out the numbers from his most recent games:

Number of TD passes in the last two games: 7
Total rushing yards in each of the past three games: 18, 20, 54
CMP %, past three games: 54.5, 64.0, 85.0
Rating (again, for emphasis), past three games: 95.27, 179.3, 214.72

Still half a season to go!

Week #6 – Bowling Green – Open Thread

Here we sit, at the top of the hill, ready to put it in neutral and save some gas while we coast down through the Big Ten. Before we get there, though, we make a pit stop to meet up with the Falcons of Bowling Green. This will be the first week on the newly laid grass. As Keith points out, it still doesn’t look that great, but it’ll do for now. It doesn’t really matter, OSU should dispatch Bowling Green rather early. Field and weather conditions are moot at this point.

Previews, if you want to see what were up against, can be found at The O-Zone and BuckeyePlanet.

Vegas has the line at 35 points. The Buckeyes have covered the spread each week. Do you think they do it again?

How soon do we see Zwick come in? (o/u middle of the 3rd quarter)

It almost seems improbable, but does Laurinaitis continue his streak and pick off another pass?

Pittman will get his carries, but it’s possible the backups get more. Do Wells and Wells out-gain Pittman?

The offense could potentially rack up big numbers. How many? (o/u 550)

Predictions:

el Kaiser:
Final Score: OSU: 45 BGSU: 0
Zwick: comes in during the second offensive series of the 3rd quarter
Laurinaitis: As much as it pains me, I don’t see another INT in this game.
Pittman: I think Pittman is going average 10 yards/carry but only get about 15 touches. He still outgains the Wells/Wells tandem.
Offense: Over – 600 yards

sportsMonkey:
Final Score: OSU: 38 BGSU: 7
Zwick: Over – comes in at the first series of the fourth quarter
Laurinaitis: Little Animal keeps the streak alive! (One pick.)
Pittman: Pittman outgains his backups.
Offense: Under – 450 yards
Comments: The Falcons actually have a pretty good rushing offense. They were able to put up 219 yards against Wisconsin (that’s twice as much as Michigan managed against the Badgers!). I don’t think BG will threaten OSU’s defense much beyond the first quarter, but the rushing offense of both teams should keep the game clock moving, and that might have an impact on the final score and yardage totals.

Zeke:
Final Score: OSU: 41 BGSU: 3
Zwick: I will take the Over. We will see Zwick toward the end of the 3rd quarter.
Laurinaitis: I agree with Kaiser, the streaks ends Saturday:Under.
Pittman: I am going with Wells’ duo to outgain Pittman 135 to 115.
Offense: Under – 512 yards, I expect the Buckeyes to be playing with a short field most of the game which will keep the total yards under 600.

Sylvester Yon-Rambo
Final score: OSU 412 BGSU -2
Zwick: Troy will do the first 2 drives of the 3rd Qtr and then Zwick will take over
Laurinaitis: 2 interceptions over
Pittman: 143 yrds and Wells Duo 121 under
Offense: well if they score 412 points like I predict then they will have about 6000 yards of offense easily…..so way over 550

Iowa game wrap-up

Ohio State is now hoarding 62 of the 65 #1 votes in the AP Poll and 62 of the 63 top votes in the Coaches’ Poll. Seriously, you guys who are still voting for West Virginia, can we talk? Has West Virginia beaten a top-ten team? What about a top-15? No? Okay, how about a top-25? No? Fine, then it’s time to start looking at the facts, gentlemen. Ohio State is now clearly the best team in the country. Let’s start voting that way.

With that out of the way, let’s talk some more about the Iowa game. Let’s start with the defense. I thought we came into the game with an excellent defensive game-plan. Getting to Tate’s fragile psyche seemed like the order of the day. Everytime he rolled out, Laurinaitis was on him, blitzing, rushing, tackling. He was being pressured from the get-go. He wasn’t getting much support from his troops but he looked like he was getting frustrated early. The defense seemed to back-off with the pressure in the second half, letting Tate hurt himself. We were hoping for another tantrum, but none was forthcoming. Too bad.

Vernon Gholston. Can we say enough about this man? He is not human. (Don’t forget these arms). Keith has a great frame-by-frame of Gholston one-arming Albert Young to the turf. That was unfair. Teams simply can not block him. I think the scouting report on Gholston looks like this:

“OSU DE #50 is very difficult to block. He’s quick off the ball and extremely strong (see Exhibit A of his lethal weaponry). But we have the law of averages on our side. If #50 lines up across from you, your assigment is simple: You hold him. You hold him like it’s your job. Grab his jersey, pull on his facemake, bear-hug him, whatever it takes. Tackle him if you have to. The referee and umpire have to keep track of 10-12 players on each down. That gives you good odds. We’ll take the occasional holding call if you can get away with it 7 out of 10 times”

The rest of the defense is coming together handsomely. We still give up chunks of yards at times, but we’re getting great pressure from the front four and we’re taking the ball away easily. If I remember the stat correctly, we had 6 interceptions last year. We already have 11, with 3 interceptions in each of the last 3 games. And we’ve scored on defense. I guess losing four starters in the defensive backfield wasn’t such a bad thing.

Losing Anderson Russel is not good, but Jamario O’Neal will step up and perform.

On offense, it’s still business as usual. Smith is guiding the offense, which is becoming a well-oiled machine. Pittman is averging 5.9 yards a carry and Smith is completing 66% of his passes. Ginn, Gonzalez and Robiskie are making Smith look very good. Everything on the offense is very business like. The O-line is simply wearing people down (as the Monkey mentioned earlier). Against Iowa, Smith looked poised and was throwing the ball very well. He never looks rushed. It was good to see Roy Hall get a touchdown, he deserved it. Chris Wells came in and showed that he can do more than get short 3rd downs. The offense is becoming a 6-headed monster. Cut one off and another grows in its place.

So bring on the rest of the Big Ten. We should have a chance now to showcase Smith for all the Heisman voters while we ramp up to November 18th. Don’t let us down, Maize and Blue! Let’s have a #1 vs. #2, in the ‘Shoe.

A quick look back at our week 5 predictions:

Who gains the most yards, Troy Smith or Drew Tate?
Tate actually out-gained Smith, 250 to 208. Out-scored, on the other hand…

None of the MotSaG prognosticators got this one.

What about their total production (o/u: 700 yards)?
This one was under – 458 yards. It wasn’t that there was a short field, either. Just conservative numbers for each QB.

Zeke took the under on this one, but was still off on his total. We’ll give it to him.

How many turnovers does Laurinaitis cause (o/u 1.5)?
Laurinaitis came through in the end, intercepting Tate’s pass in the fourth quarter. Little Animal is everywhere

laurinaitis_iowa.jpg

Zeke and el Kaiser called this one correctly. The sportsMonkey opted not to predict, but called for 2 turnovers on defense. Close, but no cigar!

Is this the game Teddy Ballgame breaks out on special teams?
Ted Ginn is still looking for a big run back this year. He played well on offense but his returns (only 3 of them) pretty much went nowhere. It’ll come, but it looks like he’s still forcing it.

The predictions on this were a little nebulous, so this won’t go on the record. We’re just anxious for Ted to take one to the house.

Results:
Zeke (2-3)
el Kaiser (1-3)
sportsMonkey (0-3)

(I’ll take a look at the other predictions and update the season totals, along with the commenters predictions, later)