How low has the UM program fallen?

Let’s just say things are bad when a coach tells his fans who are upset at a 3-win season to “Get a Life.” You stay classy, RichRod.

el Kaiser and I have spoken at length over how long UM fans must suffer before the universe is brought back into balance. During the dark Cooper years, most UM fans were absolutely insufferable. Year after year, even when Ohio State had the better team, UM fans sat back and laughed at the shock and embarrassment of Buckeye fans as they dropped the annual November matchup.

Most Michigan fans even started advocating that the Spartans or the Irish should become the Wolverines’ primary rival. This was never a serious suggestion, it was just something that was said to rile up their southern counterparts.

For thirteen years this went on. Superior OSU team after superior OSU team found a way to lose to inferior Michigan competition. The Wolverines cost the Buckeyes two for-sure national championships during that period. In contrast, a single game against the Buckeyes earned them a national title and a Heisman winner.

The statistical oddity of Cooper’s tenure and the perceived superiority of the Michigan team and culture caused the fans in maize and blue shirts to sneer more and more every year, and to become more insufferable.

And then Cooper departed, and Tressel entered, and things finally turned around.

So at what point is this Sicilian thing totally balanced? When is payback enough?

Michigan fans, consider this:

For those of you who are down on the program now, try imagining your next victory against OSU coming in 2012. That’s what we endured under Cooper.

However, it goes without saying that OSU fans are not as rabidly unsportsmanlike and full of cockiness and overconfidence as our neighbors to the North were in the 90s. Getting your team’s butt whipped in two consecutive national title games tends to force a realistic humility.

Ergo, when considering whether “enough is enough,” we’re prepared to give some allowances for the suffering you endured due to (1) losing seven out of eight games to Tressel**, (2) Appalachian State, and (3) the entire 2008 UM Season of Fail^TM. Because even when Cooper was losing to UM annually, at least he never dropped to a I-AA team at home and humiliated the conference with a 3-win season. And he never would have told his fans to “get a life” if they were upset with said 3-win season.

So while I may post rib-jabbing “Memories” pics every day of Beat Michigan Week, it’s all in good fun. I can take it like I can dish it out. If the Bucks lose this week, next year’s “Memories” pics would be Michigan highlight pics, intended to fire up the OSU masses to not let it happen again.

And make no mistake, my Buckeye brethren, a loss to a grossly inferior UM team, at home, on Senior Day, with the highest favored point spread in the matchup’s history, would be humiliating. And it absolutely could happen. For those that pick on Michigan’s inept offense, guess who’s not really that much better? Now is not the time to be cocky and overconfident. Let’s not act like a bunch of Mike Harts, here.

But oh, how awesome would will it be to graduate two consecutive classes of players that have never lost a game to Michigan? Why, I just might call it “even” if that happened.

———-
**All this assumes the Bucks win on Saturday. Otherwise, I take it all back.

Normally we ignore the BCS fearmongering that goes on this time of year, but the latest and greatest “zOMG BCS anarchy article” is up at Yahoo Sports, and this one actually has a semi-plausible angle.

If we assume that the MNC is going to be a matchup between the Big 12 and the SEC winners, then Buckeye fans must root for either Penn State or Oregon State to lose during the regular season. Otherwise, it’s Orlando for the Bucks.

Here’s the rationale: If we assume that the MNC is between the Big 12 and SEC winners, and the Rose is locked up with Penn State and Oregon State, that leaves six bowl spots left between the Sugar, Fiesta, and Orange bowls. Three of those six spots are already locked up: the Big East champ, the ACC champ, and the winner of the Boise St./Utah game either Boise State or Utah, (whichever is ranked higher at the end of the season).

So, we’re down to three spots left, with the following four teams competing for them: the SEC loser, the Big 12 loser, USC, and Ohio State. Of those four teams, which one is most likely to be left out? You guessed it.

So, Buckeye fans who want a BCS bid for the Bucks must root for (1) a destruction of UM, of course, and (2) for Oregon, Arizona, and Michigan State to have a solid end to their seasons.

Ohio State 30 vs. Illinois 20

Herbstreit predicts a close one, Corso says two touchdowns. I see a revenge ripping. Let’s go Bucks.

First Quarter
FUMBLE!$@#!!

That’s how you make them pay for turnovers. Very nice play call on the goal line. Terrelle Pryor can fake with the best of them.

Look, this team is going to gain yards. Illinois has a good offense. It’s not fun to see our defense get gashed for yards like that. But the D usually gets stingy in the red-zone. It’s early.

Pryor is getting decent time in the pocket and the line is blocking well (if not good) but Illinois has made a couple decent plays on defense. Wells made a good play on the ball on third down.

That’s another wonderful sight — tough three-and-out and then a special-teams killer.

Second Quarter
“You can’t hit Beanie Wells high. He’ll just take you for a ride.”

What was that knock on Juice? Prone to turn-overs? Check.

And with that, the revenge whipping is in full force. Beanie and Pryor are a nasty one-two. Throw in receivers that are actually running routes and catching passes. It’s just a few weeks late.

Can we please get a flag on these blatant holds on our linemen? It’s egregious.

Halftime

We’re going to be on a bit of a time delay while we catch up with the DVR. We took a long lunch here at casa MotSaG

Third Quarter

HOLY BEANIE!!! I just saw him jump (not hurdle, jump) over #4 on Illinois. That was disgusting.

Okay, all caught up now. The third quarter was exciting, even without any scores. Beanie looks solid and Homan and Laurinaitis’ sacks were devastating. The OSU defense is definitely tightening the screws down.

Fourth Quarter
The play for the TD is under review at the moment, looks very close, but lets all praise Beanie and Pryor, combining for 200 yards on the ground.

Good Lord, Zebra peoples. That was a phantom fumble and an even phantomer face mask. This game just entered the Twilight Zone.

LSU 10 vs. Troy 31

Saw this score a little bit ago, at the half. That’s just pathetic. Any SEC “domination” real or otherwise should be officially laid to rest tonight, whether LSU wins or loses this game.

OK Buckeye fans, you’ve waited a year for this revenge spanking.

Questions still arise: Will Illinois be able to depend on another two touchdowns courtesy the corrupt/incompetent officiating this year?

Not that we’re still bitter or anything. But it’s at least encouraging to know that Stephan Pamon will watching the game at his local B-dubs rather than dressing in stripes tomorrow.

But back to 2008’s matchup. In two of its past three games, OSU has found a spark with its offense, and they’ll be meeting a Zook squad that seems to be on its way down after losing to Western Michigan last week.

I don’t think there’s any mystery about this Ohio State offense anymore. It’s clear that it’s designed to wait patiently, then pounce on an opponent’s mistakes. If an opponent plays a mistake-free game, the Bucks either lose (USC, PSU), or struggle (Ohio, Purdue).

So where does Illinois fit in? How about tied for last place in the Big 10 in interceptions lost? It’s an encouraging stat for an OSU secondary currently playing lights out. This year, besides losing Pamon, Illinois has also lost Mendenhall, which will allow the improving D-line to key on Juice. Once again, it seems reasonable to assume that the nation’s sixth best defense will keep Illinois to a beatable number of points.

Which means that, once again, the outcome will come down to which OSU offense shows up. The weather looks to play some sort of role, as well.

So, chime in:

• Final Score?
• Will Laurinaitis chug his Juice Box tomorrow?
• Does Malcom Jenkins sew up the Thorpe award tomorrow?

sportsMonkey predicts:

• OSU, 27-10
• Revenge. Sweet revenge.
• Jenkins has another quietly dominant day, Juice avoids throwing his way.

el Kaiser predicts:

• OSU, 37-16
• You know when you push the straw into the CapriSun pouch too hard and all the juice spills out? Yeah, that’s what LA does to Juice’s head.
• Doesn’t he already have it sewn up? If not, then yes.

Penn State’s loss against Iowa has all but shut out increased the Buckeyes’ chances of making it to Pasadena.

Assuming a PSU win next week, the Lions and the Spartans will be playing for Rose Bowl rights on November 22nd. A Michigan State victory creates a tie between Ohio State and Michigan State, with Ohio State owning the tie-breaker in the head-to-head category.

Contrary to popular opinion, an MSU win will not put the Bucks into the Rose Bowl, as a Big Ten tiebreaking rule would then be applied: the team with the fewest I-AA opponents would go. Since Sparty did not schedule an FCS opponent, they would get the automatic bid by default.

Ohio State’s only path to the Rose Bowl is for PSU to lose next Saturday (15th), and MSU to lose the following week (22nd). Both situations are very unlikely to occur.

So, assuming that Ohio State wins out (a big assumption, as there are still two very tough games left), that would place them in position for a BCS at-large bid.

Here’s where it gets messy: there are only two teams per conference allowed in the BCS. If Michigan State wins the conference’s automatic bid, then only Ohio State or Penn State will be allowed to go to a BCS game (not both). In that scenario, Penn State would likely be chosen since they’d probably be ranked higher.

If Penn State wins, then it’s safe to say that OSU has a lock on one of the at-large bids. Since the Orange Bowl has expressed interest in getting the Buckeyes this year — representatives of the committee were at yesterday’s Northwestern game — it seems likely that we’re going to see Ohio State match up against the ACC champion in primetime on New Year’s Day.

Not a bad end to a season at all.

So, once again, Buckeye fans, we are rooting (1) to win out, of course, and (2) for Penn State to beat Sparty on the 22nd. Otherwise, the Bucks will probably be heading to the Capital One Bowl, where Georgia seems destined to appear.

Update: el Kaiser here, hopefully to clear up some things sportsMonkey perhaps didn’t realize when he originally posted this. I’ll leave it as-is and let him clean it up as he sees fit, but it should be clear: A Michigan State victory over Penn State will send the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl, since Penn State will have two conference losses, and OSU and MSU will each have one. Since Ohio State owns the tie breaker, they get the nod to the Rose Bowl. (Recommended reading: Method to Determine Big Ten Conference Automatic Representative to Bowl Championship Series (thanks to all that sent that in))

Whether a Rose Bowl (and probably rematch with USC) trip is good for the Buckeyes is subject for another day.

Update to the updated update:
sportsMonkey here. Sorry, folks, for the original inaccurate conclusion. For some reason, I was applying the rules for a three-way-tie to a two-way-tie. I swear I wasn’t smoking or drinking anything when I wrote it.

I’d love to alter this post retroactively, but I’ll let it stand like the piece of fail that it is, and hopefully the shame will cause me to tread more carefully with predictions in the future.

In case you’re lost, the possibilities are these (assuming OSU wins out):

1. PSU loses next week to Indiana, then beats MSU the week after. OSU wins Big 10 outright, heads to Rose Bowl.
2. MSU beats PSU in two weeks. OSU and MSU share Big 10 title, OSU goes to Rose Bowl via tiebreaker rule.
3. PSU loses next two games. OSU and MSU share Big 10 title, Rose Bowl for OSU.
4. PSU beats both Indiana and MSU. Penn State and OSU share Big 10 title. Lions go to Rose Bowl via tiebreaker rule. Orange Bowl for OSU. (IMO, this is the most likely scenario.)

Again, though, those four outcomes all depend on OSU winning out. Based on the remaining SOS, it seems likely that the Buckeyes will be favored in both games. However, let’s not look too far ahead. Illinois matches up very well against the Buckeyes, and as always, the outcome of the Michigan game is 50/50, no matter the records, no matter the teams.

Sorry again for the ginormous post of FAIL. Mucho thanks to el Kaiser for spotting me (and saving MotSaG rep) while I was AFK.