Now we’re getting to the meat of the Big Ten schedule. Wisconsin, Ohio State, October in the Horseshoe.

Wisconsin comes into this game possibly feeling a little disrespected for being 5-0 and sitting at the bottom of the Top 25. But we know better. Play someone other than Wofford or Northern Illinois, and we’ll talk. It’s very possible that someone could be in for a rude awakening.

Let’s get to talking about how rude of an awakening that could be.

Ohio State on Offense

Since the USC game, we’ve seen steady improvement from all facets of the offensive game. The most important offensive position, the QB, has been looking ready to explode. Terrelle Pryor has found his legs and, at times, his cannon of an arm. Against lesser defenses he has excelled. Wisconsin will be a step up from previous match-ups, but Terrelle knows what to expect.

If he can eliminate the few mental mistakes that still linger, this game could be huge for Terrelle. His “coming out” party was against Wisconsin last year. Perhaps this year’s game is his “I’m here to stay” party. We have been waiting for a full four quarters of brilliance from Terrelle. Maybe Saturday is the day.

We’ve already talked about how good Brandon Saine looked last week while Boom Herron was nursing an injury. Tomorrow’s game should see Boom move back into the starting position with Saine waiting for his chances. The running game is looking good with four legitimate threats (Boom, Zoom, Hall and Pryor) that could give Wisconsin headaches. They gave up 214 yards to Wofford (WOFFORD!). We have to believe that Ohio State’s offensive line will have a little more success against the Badger defense than Wofford did. WOFFORD!

Speaking about the line, it does have to be a area of concern with everyone battling the flu. Earlier this week I wanted to make a joke about the offensive line letting the flu get to them while The Defense seems fine. But that would be bush league. So I’ll just say that I hope the everyone on the line enjoys a speedy recovery. Get out there and MOVE.

Ohio State on Defense

So, you might have heard that Wisconsin has had some success running the ball. You might have also heard that Ohio State has been rather tough on opposing running backs. Ohio State over the last three games has given up less than 40 yards a game on the ground. A lesser writer would say something lame like “something has to give.”

One of the reasons Wisconsin has had such success on the ground is their commitment to pounding the ball. They line up in a lot of pro formations, often with two tight-ends and a full back. That’s power. That’s “I’m handing off this ball and there’s nothing you can do about it.” They’ll motion the weakside tight end and pull a guard and send the flotilla of flesh to impose their will. It can be impressive to watch. But can Ohio State stop it?

Ohio State has seen a somewhat similar offense when they played USC, but as MotSaG reader Kade pointed out to me, USC probably has the best offensive line in the country and OSU’s front four had success in neutralizing the line of scrimmage. This has to give us confidence that OSU should be able to hold its own against Wisconsin’s line.

I’m interested to see what defenses the coaches have ready. The 3-4 (or the 50 if you like) and have had some good success, but that was also to defend the spread. Against power formations, I’d like to see some more beef up front. Larimore will be missed in the middle, but Simon and Robert Rose have been doing a good job plugging up holes and taking up space in the middle. If a Mack truck doesn’t have space, he really can’t go anywhere.

And let’s not forget the passing game. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has thrown eight TDs and over 200 yards a game, but again I have to point to the competition those throws have come against. Ohio State’s back four haven’t been talked about, which is a good thing. They’ve been getting the job done. Hurt Coleman also makes his return and I think he’s got something to prove. The passing game doesn’t worry me too much.

Reasons to worry

Speaking of worrying, the Monkey and I have a fellow co-worker who often asks us “what should I worry about?” She wants it straight. For this game, I think it’s pretty clear. If Wisconsin has steady success running the ball, be afraid. Very afraid. Also, if Wisconsin is having success reversing the running game with misdirection, worry. The Defense will be keying on Clay and the direction the line is blocking, leaving the reverse and the quarterback sneak open.

Also, worry if the offensive line struggles. This game is going to grind in both directions. If Ohio State can’t get a running game established, Wisconsin will be in the driver’s seat.

Reasons to pump your fist wildly

If Boom and/or Saine is gashing Wisconsin for 7-8 yards a carry, smile and nod.

If Terrelle looks comfortable in the pocket, slinging short, laser-like passes to Carter and Posey, get that fist ready.

If Clay has trouble holding on to the ball and the linebackers are getting to him, you know you’re in for a treat this game.

We don’t know exactly what Badger team is coming to the ‘Shoe this Saturday. We’ll know soon enough.

Some intangibles: Weather looks to be nice, clean football weather. Vegas has the line at 16 points. That seems high. WOW.

Finally, time for some predictions:
Pryor: Does he gain more yards on the ground or through the air?
Defense: Does it allow a 100 yard rusher?
Clay: How many fumbles does he lose?
Final Score?

el Kaiser’s predictions
Pryor doubles up his rushing yards through the air: 200/100
Yes, I think Clay busts one big one, sniffs a hundy, but at a price of 30 carries.
Clay loses the handle on the ball after a jarring tackle from one Hurt Coleman.
OSU: 30 Wisky: 20

sportsMonkey’s predictions
Pryor: through the air 180 passing/110 rushing
Defense allow Clay 100?: No.
Clay fumble?: No.
OSU: 27 Wisky: 10

Borrowing liberally from Black Shoe Diaries, I present Ohio State vs. Wisconsin in numeric form:

I try to present this clinically, without commentary. But I have to add this: Ohio State played USC. Wisconsin played Wofford. Draw your own conclusions.

Better late than never recap of Saturday’s game against the Indiana Hoosiers.

Let’s look at how some of our predictions came out:

First, the numbers. The Buckeyes were dominant in pretty much every facet of the game. The Final Score: 33-14 looks much closer than it ever was. The Buckeyes left at least 13 points on the table, maybe more. Bizzaro Aaron Petrey missed a couple more chip shots, which is weird. Doesn’t Ryan Pretorius have another year or two of eligibility? Anyway, the game was never in doubt and the Buckeyes looked to be firing on most, if not all, cylinders this game. [Commenter Mike called this one the closest (sorry there’s no prize this week, Mike, but check back next week!)]

Next we asked: Does Ohio State pitch its third shut-out? It may have been a forgone conclusion that Indiana was going to point some points on the board. They may not be the strongest team in the Big Ten, but they weren’t going to let the Buckeyes blow them off the field. The Buckeyes Defense was monster again. That front four has become an impenetrable wall with the softest hands in the conference. It’s terrible to see Dexter Larimore go down, but Tressel can just plug the next COG into the machine and watch it continue to grind opposing running backs to a pulp.

We’ll get to more numbers on the defense, but for now we’ll just say that we’ll take a game where we only allow two touchdowns. Especially if one is scored with six seconds left in the game (see also: GAR-BAJ time). [Commenter DaveM got the two TD prediction correct for this one.]

Does Ohio State have a 100 yard rusher this week? I guess this was a gimme. With Boom Herron on the bench, it was clear that Saine’s workload was going to increase. I think it was clear that up to this point, Saine has been on the brink of busting out. We’ve seen flashes, and now those flashes are becoming one giant bright spot.

Saine’s line looked nice: 17 carries, 113 yards, 6.6, 0, 30 long. I’d like to see that 0 TD change but otherwise there isn’t much to complain about here, especially because he basically disappeared during the second quarter. Saine’s vision is improving and his cut backs and bouncing it outside are playing to his speed. Throw in his soft hands and he’s turning into a well rounded option.

Most people thought Saine would obtain the 100 yard game, but some thought Terrelle would hit it as well. He did account for 101 yards of positive rushing, but a couple sacks hurt his total overall. Nevertheless, he still made some jaw-dropping plays where he turned short gains into gashing first-down earners. Jason pointed this out rather nicely.

Finally, back to the defense. Would the give up over or under 350 yards? Most people thought we’d hold them under 350, but I honestly didn’t think it would be over an hundred yards under the 350 mark.

But the numbers don’t lie. You hold Indiana to 0.7 yards a carry rushing? That’s STOUT. After slashing through the LOLverines defense for almost 200 yards the week before, I thought they’d have a little success against The Defense, but: DANG. Even the 210 yards passing is acceptable, all things considered.

Another crazy defense stat? “OSU has 8 INTs by 8 different defenders….and none by a cornerback! — 2 by DL, 3 by LBs, 3 by safeties” (h/t Ken Gordon) That’s spreading the defensive nastiness around. Let’s get into the party, Cornerbacks!

A couple more items. I am unashamedly in love with passing to the FB. He’s a glorified guard for 95% of the plays his in on, so throw the dog a bone. I loved the pass to Zach Boren in the Red Zone. Now, that being said, if Zach wants to continue to see the ball, he needs to block on a more consitent basis. He’ll get his passes when he blows up some Linebackers.

Let’s also talk about the Duron Carter hit: I love me some wide receivers that are willing to stick their nose in there and throw a block. I want this to continue. Jason from 11W directed me to this video, which shows that we may see this for years to come from Duron.

Bring on Bucky Badger!

I’m going to be watching tonight’s game on tape-delay, but there’s another live chat going on. Feel free to join in!

Crazy to think it’s already October and we’re in week number five of the 2009 football season. It’s going too fast! This week has Ohio State heading to the Mini Horseshoe to take on Indiana for a 7 PM showdown (on the BTN).

Before we get to our thoughts, a browse through some previews elsewhere is in order. We could probably just direct you to Buckeye Planet’s preview and be done. But we spread the love.

Some key points:

The Buckeye Defense will be going for their third straight shut-out. I don’t think it’s out of the question after shutting out Illinois, a team that clearly has (had?) more raw talent than Indiana does. Hurt Coleman will be sitting this one out (but we’re done talking about that) and Ross Homan is dinged up but otherwise, the Defense should be in fine shape. having Russell Anderson and Jermale Hines as the last line of defense in pass defense situations could be trouble. Indiana’s QB Ben Chapell could be finding his third and fourth options open early and often. If we’re in a lot of zone coverage, it could get ugly.

The defensive line is still the foundation of the defense and shouldn’t have too much trouble shutting down the Indiana running game and getting pressure on Chapell, which will be paramount. But it’s not just Thaddeus and Heyward doing all the work. Don’t forget about our former high school wrestling champ Tim Anderson Dexter Larimore. He’s been quietly getting the job done (perhaps too quietly. HE KNEW!). There’s just something reassuring about having a wrestling champ down in the trenches. I can’t wait until Musberger learns this news, so he can tell us about it over and over again.

On paper, Indiana’s defense looks decent. Currently, they’re ranked #4 in scoring defense (giving up 22.3 points/game) and in total defense (327.3 yards/game) in the Big Ten. Take into consideration the competition (W. Kentucky, W. Michigan and Akron before playing Michigan) but those numbers are still decent. They held run-happy Michigan to 3 yards/carry (and as WWAHT pointed out, it’s actually less than that). They have a competent defensive line and linebackers. Look for their ends to test the newbies at offensive tackle. Their defense backfield isn’t strong and should allow for Terrelle to have some options in the passing game.

When Ohio State has the ball, expect to see a lot of running. The Buckeyes had success in spades last week running the option read (even though many of the runs were designed hand offs) and we’ll be seeing Saine and company touch the ball often. With Boom Herron dinged up, I’m excited to see Saine starting this week. I have nothing but love for Boom, but I’m glad Brandon gets a chance to be the featured back. I’d have them both on the field if it was my call. Jordan Hall will also factor prominently in the game, but unfortunately not Jamaal Berry. He’s getting awfully close to that red shirt.

When Indiana is on offense, Ben Chappell is going to be looking to pick on Anderson Russell all day long. He’s got solid WRs to throw to (Tanden Doss being his favorite) and their running game is starting to gain some momentum. But let’s be strictly honest here. The Hoosiers haven’t seen a defense yet, much less a suffocating front four like the Buckeyes. It’s going to get ugly for Ben and his buddies.

I know Indiana is done with moral victories, but I can’t see any way Indiana challenges the Buckeyes at all. Moral victories are all their going to have coming out of this game.

Predictions:
Does Ohio State pitch it’s third shut-out? if not, how many TDs do they give up?
Does Ohio State have a 100 yard rusher this week?
I’m putting the over/under for Indiana’s offensive output at 350. Which one are you taking?
Final Score?

el Kaiser’s Predictions
Shutout? Unfortunately, I don’t think so. But, I think we only give up one TD.
100 yard rusher? Yes: Brandon Saine has the biggest game of his career.
O/U? I’m taking the under at 300 yards on the button
Final Score: 38-7

sportsMonkey’s Predictions
Shutout? I’d be surprised, especially with Coleman out. I think Indiana scores twice.
100 yard rusher? Yes – but only due to Indy’s terrible secondary, which should allow someone (Pryor/Saine) who gets into the backfield or around the edge to have a long run or two & bump up the average. We haven’t seen a reverse yet… those tend to work well against overagressive DLs…
O/U? Under at 275 yards
Final Score: OSU 31-10

sportsMonkey notes: Much is made of Indiana’s DL, but I think that they’re a bit overrated. Their numbers against UM were more due to UM offensive woes (-77 yards rushing on a half-dozen bad snaps). Take those away and Indiana gave up about 5 YPC to UM. OSU >> UM, so expect the fans in gray to cheer on a long TD run or two…

Sylvester Yon-Rambo’s Predictions
Shutout? I do think we can shut them out, so I say yes
100 yard rusher? Yes: I say we have 3 100 yard rushers….. Saine, Pryor, and Jordan Hall (my new boy on Offense)
O/U? I’m taking the under at 185 yards
Final Score: 36-0

It could turn out to be a little difficult to recap Saturday’s game because my brain is soggy. I’ve been to games when it’s rained. I’ve played games in the rain. Child’s play. Saturday’s rain was from an angry rain god. But watching the defense pitch another shut out makes it all worth it.

So let’s start there: The Defense. It will be capitalized from now on, as it is now a proper noun. We can get into specifics as we move forward, but a few generalities: This defense is scary good. What’s interesting is how low our expectations were for this unit going in to the season. After losing Jenkins, Freeman and Little Animal, most of us thought we’d see a drop-off in effectiveness. But the opposite happened. I think the difference now is that this defense has an identity, and it’s not tied to one or two players. It’s a complete unit, all eleven warriors flying to the ball. Sure, Thaddeus Maximus and Hurt Coleman have been stand-outs, but this defense is complete with someone doing something special on every down. Shutting down Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn is no small feat, and this unit mashed some heads.

Some numbers: We asked what kind of yardage the Buckeye D would give up. The weather certainly had an impact, but the second half was mostly clear allowing both teams opportunities to air it out. Reader DaveM was closest with his prediction of 250 yards, but that wasn’t in the ball park. The Buckeyes only gave up 170 yards: 88 passing and 82 rushing. That is out-and-out domination. 2.4 yards a carry is impressive.

We also talked about turnovers. With three interceptions, this was an impressive effort. If there was some sort of “hitting for the cycle” for interceptions the Buckeyes certainly accomplished it with a INT from the DBs, LBs and linemen. (We’ll get back to Lawrence Wilson’s INT.) Illinois also fumbled three times but the Buckeyes never got their paws on any of them.

Individually, it’s hard to single out a single top performer but I think Thaddues single-handedly deflated any hope the Illini might have had with his play during their first drive in the third quarter. Chasing Juice down twice and getting him twice (forcing a fumble as well) was an impressive feat. To him, we award him one million Buckeye Leaves. But that doesn’t take anything away from the rest of the unit. It was an excellent outing.

For a second, let’s relish Lawrence Wilson’s interception. It was almost as if that one single play, that singular personal effort atoned for two years of frustrating injuries and painful comebacks. It was surreal when the ball was tipped and the crowd instantly erupted as the ball fell into Wilson’s mitts. I’m honored to have been part of it. But now we have to call out that celebration. Its awkwardness was rivaled only by that memorable fist pumping from Tyler Hansbrough. Embarrassing.

Offensively speaking, this was my kind of game. A grind-em out, smashmouth game of running running running. We wondered out loud who would produce more, Boom Herron or Brandon Saine. While Saine outgained Boom with one less carry, both guys carried the ball effectively. This was the kind of performance we’ve been waiting on from both of them. Kudos to the line, as well, that was opening holes on both sides of the ball. I was a little frustrated that the only creativeness seemed to be “should we run to the right twice, or three times?” But for the most part, if Illinois couldn’t stop the run, why mix things up?

The passing game really didn’t have any reason to show up in the downpour, so it’s no surprise there were no yards gained in the first half. When the elements finally cooperated, Pryor’s passing looked sharp. It’s clear that Sanzenbacher is clearly going to be a huge part of Pryor’s game and it’s nice to see him looking elsewhere from Posey. As far as Pryor’s contribution to the running game, there were a couple times he took things out too wide, allowing the Illini take away his cutbacks and was bottled up a little too much for my liking. But he still looked comfortable and did gain over five yards a carry.

I don’t normally comment on Special Teams, because Ohio State is usually solid in that aspect, but I have to call attention to Donnie Evege’s peformance on the coverage teams. It seems like he was in on every tackle. Buckeye Leaves galore for Donnie and his willingness to sacrifice his body for the greater good.

All things considered, it’s tough to gauge just how good the Illini was on both sides of the ball. Juice Williams is always a wild card, and the Joker showed up in the ‘Shoe on Saturday. So that has to be taken into consideration but he is athletic and the Illini do have some excellent players. They just weren’t on their A-game while the Buckeyes Defense had their way with them. This was a great Big Ten opener and I think we have some really good games ahead of us.

(Also, congrats go to reader DaveM, winner of a copy of Busted: The Rise and Fall of Art Schlichter with his prediction of 27-7 which was the closest to the final score (sportsMonkey had 31-6 but he’s ineligible for the prize). )