Archives for October 2011

Nebraska Recap #OccupyWalrusBall

With four minutes and forty-six seconds to go in the third quarter Saturday night, Ohio State was up 27-13 against Nebraska.  The game was almost exactly two-thirds over when starting QB Braxton Miller went down with an ankle injury.  For no readily discernible reason, Joe Bauserman was still considered the next best option and suddenly, the game was turned upside-down.

Don’t worry, People Who Are Concerned About The Fragile Emotions Of A 26-Year-Old, this isn’t about Bauserman.  Yes, he is completely ineffective as a quarterback, striking fear in no one besides the sideline photographers and random passers-by who find themselves dodging, Neo-style, his weapons of mass incompletion.

No, this is about the remarkably bad play-calling put in place in Miller’s absence.  Play-calling that was even more maddening in light of the downright inspired gameplan up until that point.

This is about 99% of the offense being controlled by 1% of the coaching staff’s brain power.

This is Occupy Walrusball.

Now, you may be tempted to blame the defense for the poor tackling and bad coverage that fed Nebraska’s furious comeback.  And that’s valid; the D certainly had their fair share of missed opportunities.  But when you look at that nightmare sequence again, you’ll see that Ohio State had three consecutive drives that each took just a minute or less off the clock in the fourth quarter.  Two of those drives occurred when the Buckeyes either had the lead or were tied.

With 11:35 remaining in the game and a 27-20 lead, Jim Bollman called a drive in which Bauserman (who was 1-5 for 13 yards at that point) threw the ball twice, including on first down.  The running back on that drive was Jordan Hall, despite the fact that Carlos Hyde had been far more effective the entire game and already had a huge TD run under his belt.  Hall gained 2 yards on second down.

Had Bollman done what first-year Husker OC Tim Beck did when his team finally took the lead and ran the ball on every play, he could have at the very least run an extra two minutes (give or take, depending on actual snap time and play duration) off of the game clock.  If it’s Carlos Hyde doing the running, then it’s a safe bet that he even converts a first down or two (his first rush on the next drive went for 12 yards, his next for 4, then Bauserman threw the pick) and the drive is extended further, perhaps even resulting in some points.  Even if we failed to score, it would have put a serious damper on Nebraska’s comeback, forcing them into more predictable play-calling.

It’s unfathomable to me that anyone with a two touchdown lead would be calling pass plays late in the game at all, let alone calling pass plays for a quarterback who lost his starting job because of ineffective passing.  How can any defense be expected perform to their potential with virtually no time to regroup or strategize?  How much more can we take?

 

What Is Our One Demand?

 

Fire. Bollman. Now.

 

Poll Dancing: Week Six, or BCSual Harrisment

This week, the first edition of that other BCS-sanctioned poll, The Harris Interactive, was released and just as you would expect from a poll that patiently observes the unfolding national scene, is formulated by contributors who are actually available to watch college football on Saturdays, and is not burdened by incorrect preseason assumptions, it is virtually identical to the one that takes the exact opposite approach.

Although they feature them in slightly different orders, both polls contain the exact same top 24 teams, once again ensuring that the computer rankings will have a major impact on the top 2 when the official BCS standings begin next week.  Until, of course, the pollsters decide they don’t like who the computers have chosen as the top 2 and adjust their own votes to counteract them, rendering the entire process meaningless.

But wait, who are these Harris Poll voters anyway?  Who are these chosen few who hold so much influence over the nation’s largest source of bragging rights?

A quick look at this year’s roster reveals the shocking truth: I’m pretty sure the list is at least 50% made up names, possibly generated by EA’s autoname engine.  Or maybe you can tell me who Bob Anderson, Eric Bailey, and James Bates are?  Can you be sure that names like J. J. Joe, Lee Grosscup, and Dick Bestwick aren’t just the childish prank of some Harris Interactive intern?  Jay Walker?  Dick Crum?  Corky Simpson?  Those guys weren’t even trying.  And seriously, Jack White?  Or does he get a vote because of this?

Pre-Season Pretenders Update

Way back in the innocent days of August, I sifted through the pre-season top 10 and chose a handful of teams that I thought would finish the season with at least 2 losses.  In the interest of calling myself out before you do, here’s how that’s going for me…

#2 Alabama (Currently 6-0, #3 in Coaches’ Poll, #2 in Harris Poll)

Of the four games I picked as potential stumbling blocks, two have come to pass with the Tide barely noticing.  Penn State was shut down pretty convincingly, and that’s the closest game Bama has played.  While they could still lose to LSU or in the SEC championship and a bowl game, it’s looking like this one is going in the Miss column.

#4 LSU (Currently 6-0, #2 in Coaches’ Poll, #1 in Harris Poll)

See above.  LSU beat Oregon and Mississippi State by 13 points apiece and then steamrolled West Virginia and Florida.  There’s still hope, but not much.

#5 Florida State (Currently 2-3, unranked)

Well, that didn’t take long.  As I guessed, the Seminoles couldn’t quite handle Oklahoma, continued their road woes against Clemson and even dropped a trip to Wake Forest.  Having lost these three games by just 20 points combined has to be extra-frustrating.

#7 Boise State (Currently 5-0, #6 in Coaches’ Poll, #5 in Harris Poll)

Boise handled the opening test against Georgia well and came up huge on the road beating Fresno by half-a-hundred.  There’s still the back-to-back TCU/SDSU tilt, but that’s a little less daunting now than it appeared back in August.  Could this finally be the Broncos’ year, or will a glut of unbeatens dash their dreams again?

#8 Oklahoma State (Currently 5-0, #7 in Coaches’ Poll, #6 in Harris Poll)

I paired them with Texas A&M (see below) because they played so early in the season.  The Cowboys won, but now enter a more difficult stretch.  They’ll need to beat a Texas team looking to take out some frustration this weekend and then take out top dog Oklahoma at the end of the year.

#9 Texas A&M (Currently 3-2, #23 in both polls)

Another early Hit!  After dropping the one-point loss to Oklahoma State, the Aggies fell to future conferencemate Arkansas by four.

#10 Wisconsin (Currently 5-0, #4 in both polls)

Well, Russell Wilson clicked, and the Badgers burned through their early schedule without a flicker.  The closest game was a 31-point dismantling of Nebraska.  After hosting Indiana for what should result in an amusing scoreboard, Wisconsin hits the road for consecutive away night games against Michigan State and Ohio State, their two co-champs from last season.  After that, they may face a challenge from Illinois, but probably not.  This is looking like another Miss.

Did the NCAA suspend Tresselball too?

Blogpoll Ballot, Week #7 (draft)

How weird is it that there are three B1G teams in the Top 11 (my top 11, at least) and not one of them is Ohio State, Nebraska or Penn State.

Laugh To Keep From Crying…

An Open Letter to Luke Fickell and Jim Bollman

Gentlemen,

I do not envy you for the situation you inherited this year. Even veteran, elite coaches must sympathize at the terrible hand you have been dealt. Still, however, one wonders why, with the challenging situation in which you have found yourselves, you would choose to sabotage your chances of putting the team in a position to succeed.

In particular, I am referring to the use of Joe Bauserman as quarterback. While his on-field struggles are well-known to anyone that has seen OSU play, one stat in particular stands out: In his career, Bauserman has a 37.5% completion rate against teams from BCS conferences.

I will say this again — Bauserman completes less than 38% of his passes against BCS AQ teams.

I could ask all sorts of questions about the wisdom of using this “quarterback,” especially the mind-numbing decision to use him to replace Miller at Nebraska. Instead, I will ask only two questions, and neither is about Bauserman:

  • What is it about Kenny Guiton and/or Taylor Graham that makes them so incompetent that they are not being given a chance to play this season? (Followup: Why are they at Ohio State if they are so incompetent?)
  • If incompetence is not the issue, and there is another ‘hidden’ concern (such as team discipline), then shouldn’t that be explained to Buckeye Nation so that your own coaching skills aren’t called into question? (Followup: Should they be allowed to transfer?)

Sincerely,
MotSaG

Nebraska Live Game Chat

Here’s the weekly Game Chat with the guys over at The Buckeye Battle Cry and Our Honor Defend. Usually at least one of us MotSaG’ers join in the fun over there.

I imagine that the festivities will start around 7:45 PM or so.

Also, if Google+ is more your style, the sportsMonkey has been setting up G+ chats that happen during the game. If you’re interested in joining, make sure and circle Men of the Scarlet and Gray.

So anyway, the chat:

See you at 7:30!

Week Six Open Thread

I hate 8 o’clock kick-offs. Luckily it’s a nice day outside and decent slate of games to keep us busy while we wait for our Ohio State Buckeyes to face off against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Feel free to chime in on anything that suits your fancy this fine Saturday of College Football.

Nebraska Preview

The Essentials
What: Ohio State vs. Nebraska
Where: Memorial Stadium
When: 8:00 PM, Oct. 8th, 2011
The Line: Nebraska -11
Television: ABC
Weather: Mid-60s to low-70s, possible showers

Finally, the time has arrived.  After all of the off-season tumult and subsequent suspensions, the Nebraska game is here and we can now welcome back QB phenom Terrelle Pryor, dynamic RB Daniel “Boom” Herron, speedy and sure-handed WR DeVier Posey, and impenetrable LT Mike Adams to reclaim the reins from their his surprisingly effective replacements and continue the march to a perfect  completed season and, if everything falls right, the national championship Meineke Car Care Bowl.

Well, crap.

In the aftermath of last week’s offensive “performance” that failed to budge the scoreboard until there were just 10 seconds left in the game, you may be thinking that there is no hope for Ohio State this weekend, playing on the road against a 4-1 opponent that in recent years has competed for titles in their old conference.  You may be worried that our inexperienced roster will be intimidated by a large and hostile crowd enjoying their first Big Ten home game (on homecoming weekend, no less).  You may be considering tuning into A&E’s Storage Wars marathon or The Last of the Mohicans on CMT (Wait, what does the “CM” stand for again?)

And you may be right, but I actually think the Buckeyes can pull this one off.  No, the skill position game-changers we were all waiting for aren’t riding in to the rescue, but Ohio State gets something back this week that it’s had in every win so far: a poor defense to play against.

And before you Husker fans go corns**t in the comments section, let’s do a little comparison, shall we?

When Ohio State Has The Ball

Expect average (150+ yards) numbers running the ball and slightly above average (170+) in the passing game, although Adams’ impact could improve those numbers (it’s doubtful that his return could hurt production, even if he literally falls asleep for a quarter or two).  The Nebraska defense gives up far more yards through the air than Ohio State typically gains, but someone is going to have to take advantage of that.  If that person exists–and if Jim Bollman can correctly identify him–then it could be a very successful night for the offense.

The Buckeyes average 23.8 points per game (I know; seems high to me too) while the Huskers give up 27.2.  That puts Nebraska right with Toledo (27 papg) statistically among Ohio State’s previous opponents.  This already bodes well for OSU since we actually managed to hit that number against the Rockets despite some pretty poor offensive play and playcalling.  I don’t expect either of those things to change drastically this week, although Adams’ return should help with production and maybe even get us into some manageable 3rd downs (imagine!).  The two teams Ohio State lost to also happen to give up 20 points or fewer on average.  The other three are well over that mark, and the Buckeyes have performed accordingly against those teams.  Despite Nebraska’s defensive tradition and reputation, they have landed themselves in the second group so far this year.  Expect Ohio State to score in the mid-to-high 20s.

When Nebraska Has The Ball

The Huskers tend to be very productive on the ground, something that could lead to trouble for Ohio State.  So far, Nebraska has run for nearly twice what their opponents usually give up.  Fortunately for the stout Buckeye D, this would still come out to under 200 rushing yards.  I don’t think they’ll get that much, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 160-170.

On the other hand, the Huskers tend to underproduce through the air, a major advantage if Ohio State can stop the run effectively.  Look for 120-140 yards passing for Nebraska.

Nebraska has played just one team with a solid defense this year and that didn’t turn out so well for them.  The good news for the Huskers is that their 17 points was more than what Wisconsin typically allows (10.2)  and they score more than any offense the Buckeyes have played so far.  The bad news is that the Ohio State defense is almost as stingy (14.6) as the Badgers and no one has matched their average production against the Silver Bullets yet, averaging just over half of their ppg when they play Ohio State.  Look for Nebraska to score in the 17-21 range.

Ultimately, a lot hinges on Adams’ ability to help the offense improve and the coaching staff’s ability to learn from last week’s disaster of game management and playcalling.  If Nebraska finds success blitzing like Michigan State did, it’s probably all over.  (Walrusball has no use for in-game adjustments, except to Bollman’s belt after his halftime snack.)  Still, the opportunities will be there for the offense if they can execute, and the defense will be lights out again.

My final score prediction:  Buckeyes 27, Huskers 20.  Yours?

Nebraska By The Numbers

As always, presented without comment.

Statistically Speaking
Ohio State
Value (Rank)
Value (Rank)
Nebraska
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 154.2 (54) 157.8 (66) Rushing Defense (ypg) Push
Passing Offense (ypg) 154.0 (111) 224.2 (68) Passing Defense (ypg) Nebraska
Pass Efficiency 125.9 (73) 127.5 (58) Pass Efficiency Defense Push
Total Offense (ypg) 308.2 (108) 377.0 (64) Total Defense (ypg) Nebraska
Scoring Offense (ppg) 23.8 (91) 27.2 (73) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 93.6 (23) 249.8 (9) Rushing Offense (ypg) Push
Passing Defense (ypg) 191.6 (30) 168.4 (103) Passing Offense (ypg) Ohio State+
Pass Efficiency Defense 114.6 (25) 117.2 (91) Pass Efficiency Offense Ohio State+
Total Defense (ypg) 285.2 (13) 418.2 (48) Total Offense (ypg) Ohio State
Scoring Defense (ppg) 14.6 (11) 37.6 (22) Scoring Offense (ppg) Push
Turnover margin +0.80 (20) -0.40 (82) Turnover margin Ohio State+
Penalty Yards/game 42.8 (29) 49.2 (46) Penalty Yards/game Push
Sacks (/game) 2.00 (53) 1.40 (41) Sacks Allowed (/game) Push
Sacks Allowed (/game) 2.80 (104) 1.60 (77) Sacks (/game) Nebraska
3rd Down Conv. (%) 36.8 (88) 45.7 (97) 3rd Down Conv. Def (%) Push
3rd Down Conv. Def (%) 28.2 (8) 41.8 (65) 3rd Down Conv. (%) Ohio State+
Redzone Offense (%) 82.6 (66) 81.3 (57) Redzone Defense (%) Push
Redzone Defense (%) 80.0 (46) 92.0 (20) Redzone Offense (%) Nebraska
 Legend
  Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
  Difference >25 in National Rank = Ohio State
  Difference >50 in National Rank = Ohio State+
  Difference >75 in National Rank = Ohio State++
  Differences >100 in National Rank = Ohio State+++

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com. As a side note, cfbstats.com is holding a pledge drive to pay for the costs associated with running a fantastic resource of a website. If you love these By The Number posts as much as I do, please consider heading over there and throwing a few coins in Marty’s direction. I just did and hope you will, too. Thanks for the great site, Marty!