Nebraska Preview

Finally, the time has arrived.  After all of the off-season tumult and subsequent suspensions, the Nebraska game is here and we can now welcome back QB phenom Terrelle Pryor, dynamic RB Daniel “Boom” Herron, speedy and sure-handed WR DeVier Posey, and impenetrable LT Mike Adams to reclaim the reins from their his surprisingly effective replacements and continue the march to a perfect  completed season and, if everything falls right, the national championship Meineke Car Care Bowl.

Well, crap.

In the aftermath of last week’s offensive “performance” that failed to budge the scoreboard until there were just 10 seconds left in the game, you may be thinking that there is no hope for Ohio State this weekend, playing on the road against a 4-1 opponent that in recent years has competed for titles in their old conference.  You may be worried that our inexperienced roster will be intimidated by a large and hostile crowd enjoying their first Big Ten home game (on homecoming weekend, no less).  You may be considering tuning into A&E’s Storage Wars marathon or The Last of the Mohicans on CMT (Wait, what does the “CM” stand for again?)

And you may be right, but I actually think the Buckeyes can pull this one off.  No, the skill position game-changers we were all waiting for aren’t riding in to the rescue, but Ohio State gets something back this week that it’s had in every win so far: a poor defense to play against.

And before you Husker fans go corns**t in the comments section, let’s do a little comparison, shall we?

When Ohio State Has The Ball

Expect average (150+ yards) numbers running the ball and slightly above average (170+) in the passing game, although Adams’ impact could improve those numbers (it’s doubtful that his return could hurt production, even if he literally falls asleep for a quarter or two).  The Nebraska defense gives up far more yards through the air than Ohio State typically gains, but someone is going to have to take advantage of that.  If that person exists–and if Jim Bollman can correctly identify him–then it could be a very successful night for the offense.

The Buckeyes average 23.8 points per game (I know; seems high to me too) while the Huskers give up 27.2.  That puts Nebraska right with Toledo (27 papg) statistically among Ohio State’s previous opponents.  This already bodes well for OSU since we actually managed to hit that number against the Rockets despite some pretty poor offensive play and playcalling.  I don’t expect either of those things to change drastically this week, although Adams’ return should help with production and maybe even get us into some manageable 3rd downs (imagine!).  The two teams Ohio State lost to also happen to give up 20 points or fewer on average.  The other three are well over that mark, and the Buckeyes have performed accordingly against those teams.  Despite Nebraska’s defensive tradition and reputation, they have landed themselves in the second group so far this year.  Expect Ohio State to score in the mid-to-high 20s.

When Nebraska Has The Ball

The Huskers tend to be very productive on the ground, something that could lead to trouble for Ohio State.  So far, Nebraska has run for nearly twice what their opponents usually give up.  Fortunately for the stout Buckeye D, this would still come out to under 200 rushing yards.  I don’t think they’ll get that much, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 160-170.

On the other hand, the Huskers tend to underproduce through the air, a major advantage if Ohio State can stop the run effectively.  Look for 120-140 yards passing for Nebraska.

Nebraska has played just one team with a solid defense this year and that didn’t turn out so well for them.  The good news for the Huskers is that their 17 points was more than what Wisconsin typically allows (10.2)  and they score more than any offense the Buckeyes have played so far.  The bad news is that the Ohio State defense is almost as stingy (14.6) as the Badgers and no one has matched their average production against the Silver Bullets yet, averaging just over half of their ppg when they play Ohio State.  Look for Nebraska to score in the 17-21 range.

Ultimately, a lot hinges on Adams’ ability to help the offense improve and the coaching staff’s ability to learn from last week’s disaster of game management and playcalling.  If Nebraska finds success blitzing like Michigan State did, it’s probably all over.  (Walrusball has no use for in-game adjustments, except to Bollman’s belt after his halftime snack.)  Still, the opportunities will be there for the offense if they can execute, and the defense will be lights out again.

My final score prediction:  Buckeyes 27, Huskers 20.  Yours?