Archives for October 2009

What a game of football. In a game where defense and special teams almost outgains (but outscores) the offense, a game where the offense runs three plays in the third quarter but the team outscores the opposition 14-3, you wouldn’t think things would go your way. But this is a team sport and we’ll take a win however we get it.

The Defense (now capitalized and bolded) was AWESOME. The fact that they had to play better part of thirteen minutes in the third quarter and still only gave up three points cannot go unstated. This unit is golden

The offense? I have a pessimistic view of the offense and a somewhat more optimistic view. For now, I’ll just say that things did not look very promising out there today.

An ugly win like this probably won’t win over any voters, but was still impressive how it happened.

Now we’re getting to the meat of the Big Ten schedule. Wisconsin, Ohio State, October in the Horseshoe.

Wisconsin comes into this game possibly feeling a little disrespected for being 5-0 and sitting at the bottom of the Top 25. But we know better. Play someone other than Wofford or Northern Illinois, and we’ll talk. It’s very possible that someone could be in for a rude awakening.

Let’s get to talking about how rude of an awakening that could be.

Ohio State on Offense

Since the USC game, we’ve seen steady improvement from all facets of the offensive game. The most important offensive position, the QB, has been looking ready to explode. Terrelle Pryor has found his legs and, at times, his cannon of an arm. Against lesser defenses he has excelled. Wisconsin will be a step up from previous match-ups, but Terrelle knows what to expect.

If he can eliminate the few mental mistakes that still linger, this game could be huge for Terrelle. His “coming out” party was against Wisconsin last year. Perhaps this year’s game is his “I’m here to stay” party. We have been waiting for a full four quarters of brilliance from Terrelle. Maybe Saturday is the day.

We’ve already talked about how good Brandon Saine looked last week while Boom Herron was nursing an injury. Tomorrow’s game should see Boom move back into the starting position with Saine waiting for his chances. The running game is looking good with four legitimate threats (Boom, Zoom, Hall and Pryor) that could give Wisconsin headaches. They gave up 214 yards to Wofford (WOFFORD!). We have to believe that Ohio State’s offensive line will have a little more success against the Badger defense than Wofford did. WOFFORD!

Speaking about the line, it does have to be a area of concern with everyone battling the flu. Earlier this week I wanted to make a joke about the offensive line letting the flu get to them while The Defense seems fine. But that would be bush league. So I’ll just say that I hope the everyone on the line enjoys a speedy recovery. Get out there and MOVE.

Ohio State on Defense

So, you might have heard that Wisconsin has had some success running the ball. You might have also heard that Ohio State has been rather tough on opposing running backs. Ohio State over the last three games has given up less than 40 yards a game on the ground. A lesser writer would say something lame like “something has to give.”

One of the reasons Wisconsin has had such success on the ground is their commitment to pounding the ball. They line up in a lot of pro formations, often with two tight-ends and a full back. That’s power. That’s “I’m handing off this ball and there’s nothing you can do about it.” They’ll motion the weakside tight end and pull a guard and send the flotilla of flesh to impose their will. It can be impressive to watch. But can Ohio State stop it?

Ohio State has seen a somewhat similar offense when they played USC, but as MotSaG reader Kade pointed out to me, USC probably has the best offensive line in the country and OSU’s front four had success in neutralizing the line of scrimmage. This has to give us confidence that OSU should be able to hold its own against Wisconsin’s line.

I’m interested to see what defenses the coaches have ready. The 3-4 (or the 50 if you like) and have had some good success, but that was also to defend the spread. Against power formations, I’d like to see some more beef up front. Larimore will be missed in the middle, but Simon and Robert Rose have been doing a good job plugging up holes and taking up space in the middle. If a Mack truck doesn’t have space, he really can’t go anywhere.

And let’s not forget the passing game. Quarterback Scott Tolzien has thrown eight TDs and over 200 yards a game, but again I have to point to the competition those throws have come against. Ohio State’s back four haven’t been talked about, which is a good thing. They’ve been getting the job done. Hurt Coleman also makes his return and I think he’s got something to prove. The passing game doesn’t worry me too much.

Reasons to worry

Speaking of worrying, the Monkey and I have a fellow co-worker who often asks us “what should I worry about?” She wants it straight. For this game, I think it’s pretty clear. If Wisconsin has steady success running the ball, be afraid. Very afraid. Also, if Wisconsin is having success reversing the running game with misdirection, worry. The Defense will be keying on Clay and the direction the line is blocking, leaving the reverse and the quarterback sneak open.

Also, worry if the offensive line struggles. This game is going to grind in both directions. If Ohio State can’t get a running game established, Wisconsin will be in the driver’s seat.

Reasons to pump your fist wildly

If Boom and/or Saine is gashing Wisconsin for 7-8 yards a carry, smile and nod.

If Terrelle looks comfortable in the pocket, slinging short, laser-like passes to Carter and Posey, get that fist ready.

If Clay has trouble holding on to the ball and the linebackers are getting to him, you know you’re in for a treat this game.

We don’t know exactly what Badger team is coming to the ‘Shoe this Saturday. We’ll know soon enough.

Some intangibles: Weather looks to be nice, clean football weather. Vegas has the line at 16 points. That seems high. WOW.

Finally, time for some predictions:
Pryor: Does he gain more yards on the ground or through the air?
Defense: Does it allow a 100 yard rusher?
Clay: How many fumbles does he lose?
Final Score?

el Kaiser’s predictions
Pryor doubles up his rushing yards through the air: 200/100
Yes, I think Clay busts one big one, sniffs a hundy, but at a price of 30 carries.
Clay loses the handle on the ball after a jarring tackle from one Hurt Coleman.
OSU: 30 Wisky: 20

sportsMonkey’s predictions
Pryor: through the air 180 passing/110 rushing
Defense allow Clay 100?: No.
Clay fumble?: No.
OSU: 27 Wisky: 10

Borrowing liberally from Black Shoe Diaries, I present Ohio State vs. Wisconsin in numeric form:

I try to present this clinically, without commentary. But I have to add this: Ohio State played USC. Wisconsin played Wofford. Draw your own conclusions.

Better late than never recap of Saturday’s game against the Indiana Hoosiers.

Let’s look at how some of our predictions came out:

First, the numbers. The Buckeyes were dominant in pretty much every facet of the game. The Final Score: 33-14 looks much closer than it ever was. The Buckeyes left at least 13 points on the table, maybe more. Bizzaro Aaron Petrey missed a couple more chip shots, which is weird. Doesn’t Ryan Pretorius have another year or two of eligibility? Anyway, the game was never in doubt and the Buckeyes looked to be firing on most, if not all, cylinders this game. [Commenter Mike called this one the closest (sorry there’s no prize this week, Mike, but check back next week!)]

Next we asked: Does Ohio State pitch its third shut-out? It may have been a forgone conclusion that Indiana was going to point some points on the board. They may not be the strongest team in the Big Ten, but they weren’t going to let the Buckeyes blow them off the field. The Buckeyes Defense was monster again. That front four has become an impenetrable wall with the softest hands in the conference. It’s terrible to see Dexter Larimore go down, but Tressel can just plug the next COG into the machine and watch it continue to grind opposing running backs to a pulp.

We’ll get to more numbers on the defense, but for now we’ll just say that we’ll take a game where we only allow two touchdowns. Especially if one is scored with six seconds left in the game (see also: GAR-BAJ time). [Commenter DaveM got the two TD prediction correct for this one.]

Does Ohio State have a 100 yard rusher this week? I guess this was a gimme. With Boom Herron on the bench, it was clear that Saine’s workload was going to increase. I think it was clear that up to this point, Saine has been on the brink of busting out. We’ve seen flashes, and now those flashes are becoming one giant bright spot.

Saine’s line looked nice: 17 carries, 113 yards, 6.6, 0, 30 long. I’d like to see that 0 TD change but otherwise there isn’t much to complain about here, especially because he basically disappeared during the second quarter. Saine’s vision is improving and his cut backs and bouncing it outside are playing to his speed. Throw in his soft hands and he’s turning into a well rounded option.

Most people thought Saine would obtain the 100 yard game, but some thought Terrelle would hit it as well. He did account for 101 yards of positive rushing, but a couple sacks hurt his total overall. Nevertheless, he still made some jaw-dropping plays where he turned short gains into gashing first-down earners. Jason pointed this out rather nicely.

Finally, back to the defense. Would the give up over or under 350 yards? Most people thought we’d hold them under 350, but I honestly didn’t think it would be over an hundred yards under the 350 mark.

But the numbers don’t lie. You hold Indiana to 0.7 yards a carry rushing? That’s STOUT. After slashing through the LOLverines defense for almost 200 yards the week before, I thought they’d have a little success against The Defense, but: DANG. Even the 210 yards passing is acceptable, all things considered.

Another crazy defense stat? “OSU has 8 INTs by 8 different defenders….and none by a cornerback! — 2 by DL, 3 by LBs, 3 by safeties” (h/t Ken Gordon) That’s spreading the defensive nastiness around. Let’s get into the party, Cornerbacks!

A couple more items. I am unashamedly in love with passing to the FB. He’s a glorified guard for 95% of the plays his in on, so throw the dog a bone. I loved the pass to Zach Boren in the Red Zone. Now, that being said, if Zach wants to continue to see the ball, he needs to block on a more consitent basis. He’ll get his passes when he blows up some Linebackers.

Let’s also talk about the Duron Carter hit: I love me some wide receivers that are willing to stick their nose in there and throw a block. I want this to continue. Jason from 11W directed me to this video, which shows that we may see this for years to come from Duron.

Bring on Bucky Badger!

I’m going to be watching tonight’s game on tape-delay, but there’s another live chat going on. Feel free to join in!