Archives for November 2007

With Oregon’s loss, OSU’s chances of heading to the BCS title game have profoundly improved.

Here’s how the BCS looked as of yesterday:

1. LSU
2. Oregon
3. Kansas
4. Oklahoma
5. Missouri
6. West Virginia
7. OSU

Here’s the situation – short, simple and in-a-nutshell:
With a victory over UM on Saturday, OSU is guaranteed to move up at least three spots to #4 in the final BCS standings. This is due to Oregon’s loss, the loser between Kansas/Missouri, and the loser in the Big 12 title game.

With me? So here are the final BCS standings, worst-case, everyone-involved-wins-out, scenario:

1. LSU
2. Big 12 winner
3. West Va
4. OSU

Here’s where it gets interesting. West Virginia has to play at Cincinnati tomorrow night. The Mountaineers are coming off their worst performance of the year last week, and have to play on the road against the #2 scoring defense in the Big East. I’m not necessarily predicting a WVA loss, but this is pretty much the definition of a trap game. Can we agree on 50/50, here?

LSU still has to play in the SEC title game. For the past month or so, that looked like Tennessee, but Georgia is on fire, and LSU clearly peaked at the beginning of the season. Another 50/50.

“So you’re saying that if WVA and LSU lose, then the Bucks will make it to the title game?”

No, I’m saying that’s OSU’s best shot. Right now, it’s a one-in-four chance. However, Arizona State has an advantage in the fact that they have two weeks of football left. If they win out, it’s possible (but not likely) that they could leapfrog the Bucks.

But none of that will matter unless OSU takes care of business this weekend. So let’s get back to all things Michigan!

Apples to apples between the good and bad guys.

The tables list the opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Michigan

	Pts	Pts (opp)	Yds	Yds (opp)	Frst Dwns	Dwns (opp)	TOs	TOs (opp)
Penn St.	14	9	336	270	25	14	2	2
Northwestern	28	16	380	417	21	22	0	5
Purdue	48	21	458	292	25	13	2	4
Illinois	27	17	343	253	23	15	3	2
Minnesota	34	10	561	231	22	16	2	1
Mich St.	28	24	311	352	18	17	1	1
Wisco	21	37	320	477	17	24	3	1
TOTAL	200	134	2709	2292	151	121	13	16
AVERAGE	28.6	19.1	387	327.4	21.6	17.3	1.9	2.3

 

Table 2: Ohio State

	Pts	Pts (opp)	Yds	Yds (opp)	Frst Dwns	Dwns (opp)	TOs	TOs (opp)
Northwestern	58	7	396	120	20	11	2	3
Minnesota	30	7	459	277	24	15	1	2
Purdue	23	7	381	272	20	15	3	1
Mich St.	24	17	422	185	22	9	2	1
Penn St.	37	17	453	263	24	14	1	2
Wisco	38	17	377	281	21	15	0	2
Illinois	21	28	336	400	18	19	3	0
TOTAL	231	100	2824	1798	149	98	12	11
AVERAGE	33	14.3	403.4	256.9	21.3	14	1.7	1.6

 

The values in Table 3 indicate a team’s overall performance, percentage-wise, against the average numbers the common opponents collectively allow.

For example, in the table below, Michigan scored an average of 13% more points on these common opponents than what those opponents typically allow, while their defense held these opponents to 35% fewer points than what they were typically used to, and so on.

Table 3: Performance against what Common Opponents Typically Allow

	% Scoring	% Scoring Defense	% Yards	% Yards Allowed
Michigan	+13	-35	+2	-21
OSU	+24	-52	+6	-38

 

Notes:
Wow, once again, OSU holds considerable advantages in seven of eight categories. However – the aberrant category, Opponent Turnovers, is the most troublesome. TOs have been the Buckeyes’ Achilles Heel this season, and it’s the one thing that the UM defense has managed to do competently. I’ll stop short of saying that the turnover battle will determine the outcome of Saturday’s game, but it just might be the case.

Also troublesome: look at the OSU scoring defense trend. Yes, the competition got tougher, but we can all agree that UM is better than Illinois, here; so concern over whether or not the trend will continue is warranted.

Look at the First Downs column. Both offenses are very similar in this category. However, OSU is turning its first downs into about four more points per game. Whether this is due to OSU’s big play capability or UM’s weakness with FGs early in the season is unknown… but the gameplan is clear for Carr’s crew: control the clock and don’t give up the big play to OSU.

In Table 3, note how a modest increase in yardage gained earned the Buckeyes 11% more points than the Wolverines earned against these opponents. More evidence of OSU’s big-play capability (or UM’s overall lack of same).

That’s enough from me. Argue the rest out among yourselves.

Heaven has no brighter star than our next stellar guest,
that omnipotent master of the North and former manicurist to Woody Hayes,

Tressnac the Magnificent!

 

Thank you, oh fine second banana. I’m sorry I’m late. I’ve been having troubles with my automobile.

Automobile problems, you say?

 

Yes. It seems as if I’ve abused my Carr so badly that I need to trade it in for one with Les Miles.

HAUGH! HI-YOOOO!!
Well, shall we begin, O Great Sage?

 

Yes, you may begin.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, I hold in my hand these envelopes. As a child of four can plainly see, these envelopes have been hermetically sealed. They’ve been kept in a #2 mayonnaise jar since noon today on Funk and Wagnall’s porch. No one knows the contents of these envelopes, but the Mighty Tressnac, in his divine and mystical way, will ascertain the answers to these questions having never seen them before!!

Thank you, yes. May I have the first envelope, please. Thank you. I must now have absolute silence…

Silence!

 

The answer is… One Double A.

 

One Double A.

 

*rip*blow*open* What kind of battery is needed to shock the Wolverines?

 

HAUGH!

 

May Reggie Bush’s boosters crash the welcome luncheon for your 2008 recruiting class.

 

Another envelope, please. The answer is… Go Blue.

 

Go Blue.

 

*rip*blow*open* Describe what happens to Chad Henne’s loins when Vernon Gholston comes to the line.

 

HAUGH!

 

 

More silence, please.

 

Silence!

 

The answer is… 86 Zip Down Hang Left Go Shake.

 

86 Zip Down Hang Left Go Shake.

 

*rip*blow*open* Name either an audible called by Henne or the instructions taped above Manningham’s urinal.

 

HAU – ..er, what if Manningham’s listening to you?

 

Yes. You’re probably right. I’d better speak a little slower, then.

 

Here’s another, sir.

 

Yes, thank you. The answer is… Piggly Wiggly.

 

Piggly Wiggly.

 

*rip*blow*open* Describe what typically happens when Chad Henne is sacked.

 

HAUGH!

 

May a fat player with a kidney condition ruin your injured running back’s hot tub therapy.

 

I now hold in my hand the final envelope.

 

The final envelope?

 

The final one. Here you go.

 

Hmmm… The answer is… Halo 3’s Master, the Great Barrier, and a Michigan player with a BCS Title ring.

 

Halo 3’s Master, the Great Barrier, and a Michigan player with a BCS Title ring.

 

*rip*blow*open* Name a Chief, a Reef, and a Thief.

 

HAUGH! Ladies and Gentlemen, Tressnac the Magnificent!

 

No excuses about the turf this year, UM fans.

Billy Tucker, your article isn’t worth the electrons it took to display it on my ViewSonic. No, it’s much more useful to print out a copy and line my bird cage with it.

Plucking three high-profile prospects out of the state of Florida — where there is unparalleled speed — might be Ohio State’s biggest accomplishment. Size and strength on both sides of the line has never been an issue.

In case you haven’t heard, #1 LB recruit Etienne Sabino committed to Ohio State over the weekend. And the media is going crazy over the fact that he’s from Florida, and of course, the rule of journalism states that anytime the words “Ohio State” and “Florida” are in the same sentence, you are required to make a comment on how the Buckeyes wish they had that famous “unparalleled Florida speed.” Proof? Proof:

Screengrab from Tucker’s article.

Starting? Starting?!?

Where did this myth – the one of speed only coming from Florida – come from? Certainly not from reality. There is a great tradition of speed at Ohio State. From Jesse Owens to Butch Reynolds to Ted Ginn, some of the world’s fastest humans had their finest moments in the Horseshoe. In fact, OSU athletes have combined for 77 Olympic medals, more than most nations. Where along the way did the “south” become the only place to find speed?

The reality is that one doesn’t go to the south for speed, no matter what the more unimaginative members of the media might say. Coaches can get that anywhere. You go to the south for a player for the exact same reason you’d go to California, or New York, or even South Africa – because he’s exceptionally talented and you think he might fit into your scheme.

Tucker: OSU currently has a dozen players on the roster from southern states, including Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. This is not a new phenomenon.

But what I find interesting is that the Florida Gators also have 12 players on their roster from northern states, including Michigan, New York, Indiana, and Connecticut. How come we haven’t seen ESPN publish articles questioning Urban Meyer’s recruiting of “northern slowness?” Wait, I know – because everyone knows that would sound stupid.