Take five minutes to look past UM…

With Oregon’s loss, OSU’s chances of heading to the BCS title game have profoundly improved.

Here’s how the BCS looked as of yesterday:

  1. LSU
  2. Oregon
  3. Kansas
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Missouri
  6. West Virginia
  7. OSU

Here’s the situation – short, simple and in-a-nutshell:
With a victory over UM on Saturday, OSU is guaranteed to move up at least three spots to #4 in the final BCS standings. This is due to Oregon’s loss, the loser between Kansas/Missouri, and the loser in the Big 12 title game.

With me? So here are the final BCS standings, worst-case, everyone-involved-wins-out, scenario:

  1. LSU
  2. Big 12 winner
  3. West Va
  4. OSU

Here’s where it gets interesting. West Virginia has to play at Cincinnati tomorrow night. The Mountaineers are coming off their worst performance of the year last week, and have to play on the road against the #2 scoring defense in the Big East. I’m not necessarily predicting a WVA loss, but this is pretty much the definition of a trap game. Can we agree on 50/50, here?

LSU still has to play in the SEC title game. For the past month or so, that looked like Tennessee, but Georgia is on fire, and LSU clearly peaked at the beginning of the season. Another 50/50.

“So you’re saying that if WVA and LSU lose, then the Bucks will make it to the title game?”

No, I’m saying that’s OSU’s best shot. Right now, it’s a one-in-four chance. However, Arizona State has an advantage in the fact that they have two weeks of football left. If they win out, it’s possible (but not likely) that they could leapfrog the Bucks.

But none of that will matter unless OSU takes care of business this weekend. So let’s get back to all things Michigan!

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