Shorter games = worse stats

FootballWell, now that we’ve completed the first full weekend of shorter college football games, what do you think? Successful idea, or frustrating bust?

As I wrote before, I’m no fan of the new time clock rules. But what I realized this weekend was that the shorter games could have a significant impact on total team stats, and those of key players, too.

For a case in point, consider these words from Jim Tressel, during his post-game news conference:

“Antonio had 19 carries and Chris 10 and Mo 5. I’ll be interested to see if the game was shorter like some people were saying. I don’t know how many total plays, let’s see. Total plays, 63 and 63. 126 plays. The average game in the NCAA last year was 141 plays. So it was a shorter game, so we didn’t have quite as many carries maybe as we would have liked.”

Using that 141-play per game benchmark, we can extrapolate the following:

On Saturday, OSU ran 61 offensive plays (not counting FGs), 34 of which were rushing (56%), and 27 were passing (44%).

The three backs rushed for 176 yards (5.17 YPC).
The two QBs went 20 of 27 for 315 yards (11.67 YPA).

Extrapolating those numbers, had the same game been played last year, OSU would have run 71 plays, 40 of which would have been rushing attempts. At the same YPC, that’s a potential 205 yards rushing – a difference of 29.

Continuing the speculation, a 71-play game would have meant 31 pass attempts. At the same YPA, that’s a potential 362 yards passing – a difference of 47 yards.

In short, had the OSU/NIU game happened last season, OSU could have had 567 yards of offense, instead of the recorded 491. In other words, a total yardage difference of 13%. That’s significant — to me, anyway.

Breaking it across a twelve game season, that’s potentially an additional 348 yards of rushing offense, and 564 yards of passing offense – almost a thousand yards difference across a season!

Of course, a typical season isn’t full of twelve NIU games, so take those numbers with a grain of salt. But the average is still there – 13% fewer total yards for the game. It’ll be interesting to see if that stays consistent.

And what about comparing the stats of players before and after the new time rules? Isn’t having a 1000-yard rusher even more impressive now, than say it was last year – because the backs have got fewer carries to work with? How about a 3500-yard QB? And what about the other game stats that I haven’t addressed – interceptions, fumbles/fumble recoveries, FGs made, and most importantly – overall scoring? Time will tell.

A final interesting thought: Jim Tressel’s goal for his offenses has always been 200 yards rushing and 250 yards passing per game. For the NIU game, he was disappointed that that the offense didn’t make that 200-yard rushing goal. However, if the game had happened last year, his goal would have been met. So, it’s interesting that his game plan worked, but apparently he didn’t take the new time rules into account. Hopefully, he’ll account for them this week when preparing the game plan against the ‘Horns.

Update: Every Day Should Be Saturday also looks at the results of the new time change and quotes Urban Meyer as saying the Gators will have 4 fewer possesions a game. That’s a big deal and sounds even worse than our analysis.

Saturday looks better for Ginn

OSU FootballTexas’ starting cornerback Tarell Brown was arrested today on weapons and drug charges.

Brown is expected to cover OSU’s Ted(dy) Ginn, Jr. during this Saturday’s matchup.

No word yet on whether or not he will play — although, Mack Brown is a fine coach, and I’m sure he’ll do the right thing (by sidelining Brown, that is).

I’m sure we’ll have more to say about this later this week. Stay tuned…

Update: As B.O.N. mentioned in the comments, Brown and Gatewood have both been suspended for Saturday’s game against Ohio State.

Initial post-game thoughts – NIU

Surprises

OSU Football

  • The offensive explosion at the beginning of the game. Tressel was clearly going for the throat. No Tresselball in the first half.
  • Troy Smith – almost no rushing yards. This wasn’t because he couldn’t get them; it was because he stayed in the pocket the entire game. What a surprise. The best mobile QB in football, and Tressel only called one QB rushing play (an option).
  • Beanie – this kid is the future of OSU football, folks. He did everthing he was asked to do, save for the one fumble. I’m not going to be too hard on him for that, though. Yet.

Issues

  • As I predicted, the OSU secondary was going to have to contain Garrett Wolfe. The OSU LB corps will be doing laps all week for how many times they got suckered by the screen pass. NIU kept getting the ends and LBs to bite on rush. This is cause for concern going into Texas next week; however, neither Charles nor Young is in the same class as Wolfe is, so I don’t look for the screen to be as successful next week.
  • Kickers – we’ve been spoiled for the past six years. I just didn’t think we’d miss two FGs. Everyone has been saying OSU’s defense is the weak point, but that’s not true. Replacing Huston will be the biggest challenge.
  • Zwick’s fumble. Sigh. It’s almost like the dude’s not even trying anymore.

Overall, NIU was a perfect first opponent for OSU. There will be tons of film that the OSU coaches will use to improve their game plans. As we said before, OSU is in a much better position than Texas going into next week. They had a much tougher opponent, and will take more away from NIU than Texas will take away from their practice scrimmage against the Mean Green.

Final score: 35-12 (sportsMonkey’s prediction was 34-13. Not that he’s gloating or anything.)

Update: 9/4/06 (by el Kaiser)

I just wanted to mention a few things now that we’ve had a chance to marinate in the juices of week #1.

The defense looks like it should be okay, but I’m concerned about the defensive backfield. Even deep in the third quarter, the Buckeyes looked confused. They’re going to learn as the season goes on, but they need to improve right now. That being said, even with the confusion and inexperience, all 11 guys were flying to the ball. Brandon Mitchell and Freeman looked sharp and Gholston is going to be a beast.

Like the Monkey said, Beanie Wells is going to be an amazing running back. He is, indeed, the real deal.

I’d also like to point out that Ginn scored two (count ’em, one, two) TDs, as I predicted. I didn’t see them coming in the first quarter, but I’ll take it however I can get it. Oh, and Beanie had 10 carries. Man, I’m good.

**Update: 9/6/06 (by sportsMonkey)
OSU vs. NIU (week one): Time until the regional ABC broadcasting crew managed to avoid bringing up [HWSNBN]: 27 minutes, 30 seconds. Getting better, guys. Pretty soon you’ll be constraining yourselves to hold off talking about him until after halftime.

Week #1 – Northern Illinois – Open Thread

OSU FootballWe’re starting a new regular feature here at Men of the Scarlet and Gray now that the season is upon. We’ll start each Friday with an Open Thread where the MotSaG bloggers will discuss that week’s game, along with some predictions which will almost certainly be embarrasingly off. But we’ll make them with pride. We invite our readers to chime in as well, let us know what you think about the game, your predictions, what have you, in the comments.

Week #1 brings the beginning of the much anticipated 2006 season with an opening game against Northern Illinois. Expectations are sky-high and questions abound about the defense, and hopefully Northern Illinois and Garrett Wolfe will prove a worthy opponent for week one.

For a preview, check out The 614’s preview or Buckeye Planets exhaustive NI Preview.

Vegas has the line at about 18 points.

In addition to the final score, how about a couple other predctions:

How rushing yards will the new OSU defense give up (over/under at 120 yards)?

How many touchdowns will Ted Ginn Jr score (over/under at 1.5)?

How many touches will Beanie Wells get (over/under at 8.5)?

My predictions are:

I think the Huskies might threaten early, driven by adrenaline and the atmosphere of the Horsehoe, but this game will be over by the middle of the second quarter. OSU will pound the ball with the running game against NI’s small-ish defense and simply wear them down. On defense, I imagine this will be try-outs for the Texas game for the defensive backfield. I think our depth and speed overwhelm the Huskies.

Final score: 31-10
NI’s rushing yards: 100 (under)
TGJ’s TDs: 2 (over)
Wells’ carries: 10 (over)

Zeke’s Predictions
Final Score: 38-17
NIU’s rushing yards: 119 (under)
TGJ’s TDs: 1 (under)
Wells’ carries: 13 (over)

I would agree with Kaiser that NIU will be able to move the ball early. I fully expect as the game goes along OSU’s front four will be too much for NIU’s OL to handle. The 7-8 man rotation on the DL with keep the guys fresh. I can’t count how many times I have heard this week listening to radio and preview shows, “the game is won in the trenches”. I think it will be key for OSU to get pressure on the Huskie QB with the front four, allowing the speed of the back seven to make plays.

In the past few years it has taken a few games for OSU’s offense to get up to speed, I don’t think anyone expects it to take time this year. I sure don’t. I would’nt be surprised if the score is something like 17-10 at halftime, with the Huskies hanging in, but I fully expect the second half to be dominated by the Buckeyes.

sportsMonkey’s Predictions
NIU is a perfect first opponent for OSU – a solid team with a good first unit that will challenge the Bucks and coaches.

If I were a Texas fan, I’d be a bit nervous over the difference in first opponents between OSU and the ‘Horns. OSU will be tested by NIU, and will be able to come away with some good experience and opportunities to learn and improve. Texas won’t be tested at all by North Texas, which will make preparing for OSU next week much harder.

As is the case for most MAC schools, I expect NIU’s first team to come out swinging, and make it a competetive first half for the Bucks. Garrett Wolfe put up a buck-fifty against UM last year, including a huge 76 yarder. But a team like NIU simply doesn’t have the two-deep that a Big Ten school has, so things will start to fall apart for them by the end of the second quarter/beginning of the third quarter.

Final score: 34-13
NIU’s rushing yards: 130 (over)
TGJr’s TDs: 1 (under)
Beanie’s carries: 7 (under)

My fears for the season

OSU Football
Sports IllustratedEarlier this month, the pre-season polls started coming out. Our Ohio State Buckeyes were bubbling to the top, the cream that they are. I don’t remember which one was first (the ESPN/Coaches poll?) but I started getting nervous. The Sports Illustrated poll wouldn’t be far behind. Would they doom OSU’s chances at the National Title by featuring us on the cover? If they did, could we finally break the curse? I, like most of Buckeye Country, was a bit nervous picking up SI’s College Football Preview. Sure, there was more than one cover, the regional covers alleviating a little of the possibility of a 6-way curse, but there it was, hovering.

I was reminded of another SI cover:

Andy Katzenmoyer SI

I remember an IMMENSELY talented Buckeye team, lead by a talented quarterback, talented receivers and monster defense. I also remember a fateful afternoon in November, a dark, cold night in the ‘Shoe and a fateful fumble and a gut-wrenching interception, the hopes of a National Championship lost. With Troy and company on the cover of this year’s SI College Preview, I hope we don’t have to live through that again. Though the parallels between this team and the ’98 team aren’t strong, I still have two fears going into the season.

Overconfidence is my first fear. The players have been hearing the hype. They’ve seen the shows, they’ve seen the polls. How much is going to their head? On the outside, the Buckeyes, especially Troy Smith, have been saying all the right things. Coach Tressel has been training them well. They are keeping things very close to the vest (pun intended). Reading the article in the New York Times (discussed here earlier) painted a picture of low-key living by some of the Buckeyes, and hopefully they’ve been able to avoid the hype, to some extent.

Second, I worry about the expectations of the fans. Fellow MotSaGer Slyvester-Yon Rambo and I always discuss our “eternal contentment” with the Buckeyes. After the 2002 championship, we both decided that we would be content with OSU teams that go 10-2, 9-3, beating Michigan and winning the Big Ten but maybe not making it to the BCS Championship game each year. But is that enough for Buckeye fans as a whole? With all the hype and hope, will anything but a trip to the Fiesta Bowl BCS National Championship Game be a disappointing season? Will fans be able to stand another disappointment at the hands of Texas or a loss to the Hawkeyes in Iowa City?

And couple that with the players on the field. Will the pressure and their own over-confidence be too much to handle? Will the young defense feel the need to perform immediately, stunting their development? Or will it propel the team to play harder, to prove the pundits right?

Only time will tell. Time that is quickly approaching.

Report from Monday’s Open Practice

Autograph Session

OSU FootballAn estimated 28,000 showed up for the autograph session and practice at Ohio Stadium Monday night. I was one of those crazy people that ventured to the shoe to watch the practice, yes practice! I did not really have high expectations (which ended up being a good thing as the practice itself was mostly uneventful), but my curiosity got the best of me and I had to watch. For those who did not attend (and even if you did) here is brief overview of the events Monday night.

The evening began when the gates opened at 6pm. This gave people an hour to figure out where they wanted to stand in line for the autographs. I arrived at 7, right as the autograph session began. The concourse was filled with people waiting in lines for the autographs, thousands upon thousands of people standing in ridiculous lines. All I needed was my camera and I walked up to the tables (by passing the lines) and snapped a few photos. No wait, No drunken tailgaters breathing down my neck, and best of all I was out of there by 7:30 to find my seat to watch practice. As the old saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words, so who needs a signature? Here are a few of the photos of my trip around the concourse and if you are so inclined here are a few more.

Troy Smith and Jim Tressel Troy Smith and Coach Jim Tressel

Ted Ginn Ted Ginn Jr.

David Patterson and Antonio PittmanDavid Patterson and Antonio Pittman

Jay Richardson and Quinn Pitcock Jay Richardson and Quinn Pitcock

Dionte Johnson, Vernon Gholston, and John Kerr Dionte Johnson, Vernon Gholston, and John Kerr

Practice

The practice time was split up into three parts. The first third of the practice focused on special teams, beginning with the punt, followed by the kickoff, and then field goals. Coach Tressel was right in the middle of the action directing traffic. Another reminder of how important special teams are to the success of the team. Highlights:

  • In the span of five minutes, Anderson Russell blocked two punts.
  • Aaron Pettrey nailed a 54 yard field goal (below) that would have been good from 60 yards. More on that in the observations below.
  • The second part of practice separated the passing game and the running game. On one side of the field there were one on one drills with the wide receivers and defensive backs, and on the other side of the field the rest of the team practiced the running game. Highlights:

  • There was some speed displayed during the one on one drills. The wide receivers and defensive backs are fast.
  • This may be preaching to the choir, but Troy Smith can make any throw. He has got a gun.
  • In the final part of practice we saw the offense take on the defense in some 11 on 11 drills. This was not a scrimmage, so there was not full contact. The practice session concluded with some live (using the clock) two minute drills. Each of the first three string offenses and defenses squared off. The defense was given 2 points and it was up to the offense to at least get into field goal range, starting from their own 45 yard line, in order to “win”. Highlights:

  • First Team O vs. First Team D: The offense managed one first down and with 5 seconds left attempted a 54 yard field goal by Ryan Pretorius, which fell miserably short. More on that in the observations below. Defense “wins”.
  • Second Team O vs. Second Team D: On the third play of the drill, Kurt Coleman picks off a Justin Zwick pass and returns it for a TD. Defense “wins”.
  • Third Team O vs. Third Team D: The offense ran four plays and could not convert a first down. Defense “wins”.
  • Three General Observations

    The more I see and hear about OSU’s defense, the less worried I become about replacing nine starters. There is talent and speed-o-plenty out there on the field.

    OSU is going to be solid at QB for years to come. There may not be a Heisman hyped QB after this year for a while, but I am definitely not worried about that position at all. The young kids, Boeckman, Schoenhoft, and Henton look good.

    Finally, the place kicker battle is uber important this week. Ryan Pretorius and Aaron Pettrey are locked in a battle for the starting spot. From what I saw on Monday night, Pettrey has a much stronger leg than Pretorius. I believe the battle will be decided by who the coaches believe can be more consistent. Wednesday’s kick scrimmage will almost surely decide who will win the job. It is the kicker’s day to shine. By all means they need that time, since most of their practice was spent on the sidelines watching. Oh the life of a lonesome kicker.

    Partying like it was 1997

    Ahh, those poor guys at the M-Zone. Longing for the days of yore, they have posted a video of OSU’s “Greatest Hits” from the past 30+ years. We noticed that there were only a couple “highlights” from the past decade, so we’re here to fill in the blanks:

    We also find a few pictures that will help jog their memories. Remember this picture?

    Or this one?

    And there’s always this one.

    Yeah, we remember those, too.

    Troy Smith’s mostly charmed life

    OSU FootballThere’s a great piece in the New York Times (reg’n usually required; h/t: Ohio State Online) about Troy Smith. Read the whole thing, of course, but here are a few thoughts I had while reading.

    Class can mean a lot of thing, from playing fairly on the field to staying out of jail, but it’s largely a matter of perception and is most useful for its karmic quality. For example, if Ohio State beat archrival Michigan, but Ohio State’s quarterback was later found to have run afoul of the N.C.A.A. or the local Police Department, Michigan fans could take solace in the fact that Ohio State, while victorious, was “classless.” On Internet message boards, fans of Ohio State’s rivals tabulate Buckeye transgressions to measure the program’s collective depravity, and Smith in particular has provided them with a great deal of psychic satisfaction.

    The writer, knowingly or not, distilled the grudge and competition between fan blogs in mere sentences. It’s as if the writer regularly reads the M-Zone and Deadspin or something. Stay classy, guys!

    It’s also a great to read about the tutelage and iron-fist father-figure that Ted Ginn Sr. was in Troy’s (and Ted Ginn Jr.’s) lives. As a boy without a father, Troy definitely benefited from the tough love that Ted Ginn Sr. gave. He definitely seems like a no-nonsense kind of guy. I love that Ted Senior told Troy he hates sunglasses. You know why he hates them? I’ll venture a guess: they hide people’s eyes. And as someone who teaches character and integrity, Ted Senior can probably look you in the eyes and bore a hole into your soul. Sunglasses prevent him from soul-boring, so he doesn’t like them. I have a feeling that if you look him in the eye and you’ve got secrets, TGS will know it. And you will crumble under that gaze.

    Ted Ginn, Sr.
    Those eyes. They will haunt you

    A few other tidbits that can be gleaned from the article – this is the Video Game Generation. These guys (by design) live pretty boring lives and video games provide a little escape from their celebrity status. And believe me, they are celebrities here. They have to constantly fight off special treatment and freebies you and I would gladly accept.

    Last year, Matt Leinart, the Heisman-winning quarterback at the University of Southern California, used his senior season as a kind of public victory lap — dating starlets, becoming a fixture at Hollywood parties and soaking up the kind of sybaritic pleasures that only a 22-year-old would have the audacity to dream up. Smith’s life is comparatively monastic. He graduated in June with a communications degree, and his coursework for the fall could be minimal. Jim Tressel, Ohio State’s head coach, compares him to a medical resident: part intensive study (in the film room, with the coaches), part thrilling on-the-job training (in Ohio Stadium, in front of 100,000 scarlet-and-gray-clad fans).

    That’s not to say Troy and company don’t have fun. They do. In fact, I love that when Troy does go out for a night on the town, he uses T.J. Downing and Roy Hall as body guards. Downing is an obvious choice, but Hall? Yeah, those guns could do some damage. But even though they are superstars in Columbus, they don’t exactly live like it:

    The two pour themselves into the video game, saluting their virtual teammates for good plays (“Who got the pick-off? Nate-dog?”) and taking short breaks to discuss weighty matters like whether Ginn has any A.1. steak sauce back at his apartment. Playing with virtual likenesses of themselves and suspended in a kind of childlike animation, they seem happier than they’ve been all day. In Smith’s and Ginn’s stripped-down lives, football — the practices and the film study and the endless media interviews — is a thing to endure. Video games are a thing to do.

    Smith is standing outside his garage door wearing an expression that looks like a mixture of sleepiness and bemusement and, I think, a little sadness, and he is saying, “I’m telling you, man, this is what we do all the time.”

    “This” meaning winning football games beating down Michigan. I’m glad that’s what they do all the time.

    Link Roundup #3

    This is a couple weeks old, but as a gamer myself, this article about the ECU football players reacting to their digital-selves in EA’s football game, NCAA 2007, is pretty interesting.

    Every Indians fan knows that Travis Hafner, aka Pronk, is one of the best players in the league. He’s often compared to Big Papi, David Ortiz. Ben Valentine at Sportszilla look at the stats and use them to show the Pronk is, in fact, the most feared designated hitter in the American League.

    OSU Fan favorite Bam Childress has a chance to make the New England Patriot’s roster. Go Bam!

    Speaking of Buckeyes with their NFL stock rising, Simon Fraser has been turning heads at Browns camp.

    Dennis Dodd, CBSportsline extraordinaire, seems to have had a brain aneurysm or some other blunt trauma to his brain as he was compiling his list of the top 25 college football stadiums, as he seems to have left of The Horseshoe. Huh? This guy knows his college football!

    Keith at Buckeye Commentary takes a look at Freshmen that will probably be redshirting this season. His lists look spot on, solid work as always.

    The outlook isn’t good for Mike D’Andrea: Chronic knee problems may keep him from playing this season. This kills me, as I was a huge fan of D’Andrea when he splashed on to the scene as a freshman. He was a freak of nature back then. Now it looks like he might not have been built for the wear and tear of football at this level.

    OSU Heisman hype underway

    OSU FootballOhio State University has begun the Heisman campaigns for Troy Smith and Ted Ginn, Jr.

    Visit Smith’s and Ginn’s web pages for stats, pictures, and two goose-bump inducing highlight reels.

    15 days and counting…