Good Morning Buckeye Nation.

Get your vote on: Buckeye quarterback commit Stephen Collier needs Buckeye Nation to represent and vote for him as player of the week. Collier who was voted Homecoming King went 12-20 with 327 yards and 4 touchdowns and rushed for 54 yards and another touchdown. Here is the link to vote for Stephen: http://www.albanyherald.com/polls/2013/oct/week-9-albany-herald-player-week-award/results/

Here are the highlights from his performance against Harris County:

SuperBand: The Ohio State Marching Band is getting recognized for what they have been doing this year. Apparently they are getting 10-15 million views on their youtube videos for the awesome halftime shows. Yesterday the they were featured on the Today Show.

Haterade Nation: I was going to go off on a certain writer and his ignorance and obvious disdain for the Buckeyes. I was going to oh never mind not like he would be capable of reading my dribble of pointing out he is a moron specially since I might have already done it before, I have lost track on who I have gone off on since it seems Buckeye Nation against the world.

Thanks to Josh Schott (Mr B1G) posting something that really was entertaining and made sense. Greg Doyel of CBSSports has a really nice article.

There are additional facts but they don’t seem to matter, even if the fact is the Buckeyes kicked it onside with three seconds left in the half — they didn’t want the ball back; they wanted to prevent a long kickoff return before halftime — and if another fact is that the referees made an obviously incorrect spot on Penn State’s fourth-down play and Ohio State challenged the call to get its defense off the field, which is allowed. Only, it’s not allowed when the team doing it is Ohio State. Better to ignore the bad call and give the other team charity, because charity isn’t insulting to a fellow Big Ten football school. Challenging a bad spot is insulting. Or something.

Bad Dad: Seems that Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase’s father is no longer allowed on the University of Illinois campus after a incident with university police. Guess that takes the embarrassment by a family member to all new heights, he won’t have to ask his dad to drop him off around the corner since that’s as far as he will allowed to be.

Until next time Buckeye Nation…

I want you to think about the Penn State game for a minute. Hooray, you’re probably thinking, I was just about to do that anyway! Don’t get too excited, because I also want you to think about the Buffalo game. Can’t I just think about the Penn State game twice? No. No you can not.

It’s not exactly a bold statement to say that one is a fine example of Ohio State exceeding expectations this season, while the other is an unfortunate example of the Buckeyes’ failing to meet expectations. We all know that by watching the games and having our own expectations, as fans, for the team’s performance.

We also know that Texas far exceeded expectations by blasting TCU last weekend, because we consume enough sports media to understand where other teams in other conferences stand and what the primary storylines surrounding them are. (In this case, it’s pretty much impossible to turn on ESPN or a sports talk radio and not encounter questions about Mack Brown’s long-term viability as the Longhorns’ head coach.)

And that’s all fine and dandy, but wouldn’t it be nice if we could quantify a team’s expectations (or rather, our expectations for them) and then measure those against actual performance? So instead of just knowing that Ohio State and Texas both did better than we thought they would, we would know how much better and which of those teams did more better. (That’s right, all my English teachers ever, I just used “more better” in a sentence and there’s nothing grammatically wrong with it!)

As you’ve no doubt guessed by now, we can and it’s all thanks to the sketchy subhumans who bet on college athletics and the even sketchier and subber-human beings who provide them the tools to do so. Specifically, I’m talking about The Line and The Over/Under Number, and they are important to us because of what they represent: perception, in numerical form.

The purpose of these two numbers, for bookmakers, is to inspire equal betting on both sides. While I don’t claim to understand the inner workings of it, suffice it to say that it is better for bookies if the money on both sides of each of these numbers is even. That’s why the numbers sometimes change: heavier betting on one side will “push” the number until things even up. Because of this, the numbers are not a prediction of what the outcome of the game will be, per se, but they do represent what the general gambling public collectively believes will happen.

Because of this, it is fair to use these numbers as the expectation for a team’s performance (two teams, really). To do this, we have to combine them to produce a “final score” prediction, which is math so simple, I figured it out. Basically we need a prediction such that the winning team’s score – the line = the losing team’s score and both add up to the over/under number. I’m going to leave it at that, because we ain’t blog to play SCHOOL.

Keep in mind that different sources will have slightly different numbers for each game. This shouldn’t impact results too much. I use this site when possible and Google for any numbers its missing.

So, the “Vegas Expected Score” for the Buffalo game was about 45-11, Ohio State. For the record, our own Jeremiah guessed 52-6 and Buffalo blogger BrandedBull picked 41-17. Together, those two picks come out to about 47-12, which is remarkably in line with the Vegas score.

As you know, things didn’t quite turn out so well and we all felt a little disappointed (although some more severely than others) after the game. While Ohio State’s offense did produce nearly 90% of the projected points, the defense gave up nearly twice as many as expected. These two numbers are combined to get a final “Performance” score, expressed as a percentage. (The final scores for both teams in a single game will total 200%.) It turns out that Buffalo was indeed our worst performance against expectations of the whole season, at a sad 3.34%.

By contrast, the VES for the Penn State game was 36-21. Here at MotSaG, YNBA picked 52-24 and Tony reined himself in to 41-20. We didn’t talk to a Penn State blogger (that is so us), but I did find this, where the three pickers who chose OSU to win went with 34-24, 37-24 and 31-27. Average pick: 39-24, again eerily close to the Vegas prediction.

Once again, things didn’t go how we thought they would, but this time it was in Ohio State’s favor. The Buckeyes posted a stunning 208.33% (yes, that means PSU got a negative score) for this game, third best in the nation last week behind Houston’s upset rout of Rutgers and Michigan State’s manhandling of Illinois. Texas came in 5th with 196%.

What good does any of this do us? Well, it gives us some insight into the intangible areas of overrated-ness and bias. If a team had an exceptionally high score week to week, we might start to wonder if they’re being overlooked or not taken seriously by the media/general public. A team that consistently posts low scores would suggest just the opposite: that they are looked at favorably despite not living up to the hype on the field.

In case you’re interested, Ohio State’s season average so far is 105%, and 122% if you take out the Buffalo outlier. (Note: there were no available numbers for the FAMU game, and I probably would’ve thrown it out anyway.) For the most part, we are playing as expected overall, but are probably a little bit underrated. Michigan’s season average is 89.71%, so they are probably a little bit overrated. Their worst performance was -41.05% against Akron, which is nearly five times worse than Penn State’s loss to us. I’m glad I could make you smile.

As always, presented without comment. (Now with 4th Down Conversions!)

Statistically Speaking Ohio State Value (Rank) Value (Rank) Purdue Advantage Rushing Offense (ypg) 295.6 (9) 192.7 (93) Rushing Defense (ypg) Ohio State++ Passing Offense (ypg) 221.6 (76) 206.9 (25) Passing Defense (ypg) Purdue+ Pass Efficiency 168.7 (7) 130.9 (75) Pass Efficiency Defense Ohio State+ Total Offense (ypg) 517.3 (8) 399.6 (69) Total Defense (ypg) Ohio State+ Scoring Offense (ppg) 47.3 (5) 34.4 (105) Scoring Defense (ppg) Ohio State+++ Rushing Defense (ypg) 95.9 (6) 76.1 (121) Rushing Offense (ypg) Ohio State+++ Passing Defense (ypg) 240.3 (80) 202.4 (92) Passing Offense (ypg) Push Pass Efficiency Defense 129.4 (70) 99.3 (121) Pass Efficiency Offense Ohio State+ Total Defense (ypg) 336.1 (14) 278.6 (122) Total Offense (ypg) Ohio State+++ Scoring Defense (ppg) 19.1 (15) 13.1 (121) Scoring Offense (ppg) Ohio State+++ Turnover margin +1.00 (13) -0.71 (102) Turnover margin Ohio State++ Penalty Yards/game 46.1 (52) 45.4 (44) Penalty Yards/game Push Sacks (/game) 2.50 (32) 3.00 (108) Sacks Allowed (/game) Ohio State++ Sacks Allowed (/game) 1.38 (34) 1.43 (101) Sacks (/game) Ohio State++ 3rd Down Conv. (%) 52.8 (7) 46.6 (111) 3rd Down Conv. Def (%) Ohio State+++ 3rd Down Conv. Def (%) 33.0 (23) 29.5 (114) 3rd Down Conv. (%) Ohio State++ 4th Down Conv. (%) 68.8 (16) 64.3 (98) 4th Down Conv. Def (%) Ohio State++ 4th Down Conv. Def (%) 50.0 (56) 43.6 (78) 4th Down Conv. (%) Push Redzone Offense (%) 92.5 (10) 92.6 (117) Redzone Defense (%) Ohio State+++ Redzone Defense (%) 78.3 (40) 62.5 (122) Redzone Offense (%) Ohio State++  Legend   Difference <25 in National Rank = Push   Difference >25 in National Rank = Ohio State   Difference >50 in National Rank = Ohio State+   Difference >75 in National Rank = Ohio State++   Differences >100 in National Rank = Ohio State+++

Stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

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The Boilermakers are doing everything they can to hype this game up this weekend.  The Boilermakers are looking to wreck the Buckeyes undefeated run as they’ve done in years past.  Here are a few players that could make that happen for Purdue, and also some guys who will do their best to prevent that from happening from Ohio State.

Purdue

Akeem Hunt, Running Back #1-  Hunt is the every down back for Purdue.  While his statistics don’t jump off the screen, he is still a main cog in the Boilermaker offense.  Hunt is the leading rusher,  in attempts and yards, and also the leading receiver in receptions.  He is a very versatile back, almost like a Jordan Hall.  He has the ability to rush 15-20 times a game effectively, as well as break out in the passing game and cause matchup issues with opposing linebackers.  Hunt will have to be accounted for on the field as Purdue will rely heavily on him to help out the true freshman quarterback Purdue will be starting.

DeAngelo Yancey, Wide Receiver #80-  While Yancey is a freshman, he has been a bright spot for the struggling Purdue offense.  Yancey is a big play receiver averaging 21.8 yards per catch so far this season.  He is a good size kid at 6’2, 200 pounds, and with that size comes a great leaping ability.  Yancey was projected out of high school to be more of an H-back, however he has been placed at wide receiver and has been having a productive freshman campaign.  Yancey will not out run a player like Roby, but he is a physical receiver and will be a threat going across the middle of the field, and in the red zone in jump ball situations.

Bruce Gaston, Defensive Tackle #90-  Every time Purdue has upset Ohio State in recent memory, there has been one defensive lineman who seemed to single handedly wreck the game.  Whether it be Ryan Kerrigan, or Kwann Short, Purdue is very good at producing quality defensive lineman, and Gaston may be the next to come out.  Gaston is a large guy at 310 pounds, and he will do his best to clog up the middle of the line.  Last year against the Buckeyes Gaston did not have much an impact on the game, however with another year under his belt Gaston looks like an improved player and will be a good challenge for the quality Buckeye offensive line.

Ohio State

Dontre Wilson-  Ever since the Northwestern game where Wilson got limited touches, and also had a bad week of practice, Wilson has become a serious player in the offensive scheme.  Wilson played his first quality game of his career last week.  We saw Wilson flash some against Iowa, but last week he finally seemed to begin to not only run with purpose and confidence, but he also blocked pretty well.  I’m excited to see what Wilson will do this week against a pretty average Purdue defense.  The Buckeyes may need an electric play to wake them up and get things going against Purdue and Wilson can definitely provide that for this offense.

Jeff Heuerman- When Meyer says they have to find more ways to get a player involved its not a suggestion its a promise.  Heuerman has been blocking his butt off and playing at a very high level according to his coaches.  I think this week he will be rewarded for all of his hard work.  A lot of attention will be played to stopping Braxton, Carlos Hyde, Dontre Wilson, Devin Smith, etc.  However, Purdue can not cover everybody, and I think this week will be the week Heuerman gets 6 or 7 catches, and really exploit the matchup problems he presents.

Carlos Hyde- This guy has been an absolute man this season.  Coming off another huge night against Penn State, Hyde will look to leave his bruising mark in West Lafayette.  This will be one of the better challenges he will face this year versus the Purdue front four.  Bruce Gaston and Ryan Isaac present a very good challenge for the Buckeye star running back.  Gaston and Isaac are transitioning well to the 3-4 nose tackle, and have the ability to clog up the middle, however we have been seeing a more agile Hyde of late. His vision has been improving which has given Hyde the threat of being able to bounce a run outside if the middle is clogged.  Hyde’s patience is the most underrated part of his game, and this week it will be vital as the Buckeyes might struggle to move the gigantic nose tackles of the Boilermakers.  If the line handles the Boilermakers front four and Hyde is his normal self, expect another massive day from him.

 

1.) Ohio State (8-0)- Beat Penn State 63-14. Dominance!!! That is the only word that needs to be used to describe this weeks game for the Buckeyes.

2.) Michigan State (7-1)- Beat Illinois 42-3. The Spartan defense is the real deal and shows up all the time. Can the offense keep going in a positive direction? This weeks game against their rival TTUN will go a long way to prove they belong at the top of this list.

3.) Wisconsin (5-2)- Wisconsin was on a BYE this past week.

4.) Minnesota (6-2)- Beat Nebraska 34-23. Jerry Kill still isn’t on the sideline yet but his team is playing inspired football to honor him. The Gophers flat out over powered the Cornhuskers. They punched them in the mouth and Nebraska went crying to their mommies instead of fighting back.

5.) Michigan (6-1)- TTUN was on a BYE this past week.

6.) Iowa (5-3)- Beat Northwestern 17-10. Iowa played Hawkeye football. They played great defense and just enough offense to win the game. Not sure still how good this team is.

7.) Nebraska (5-2)- Lost to Minnesota 34-23. What can you say about this team? The return of Taylor Martinez was less than successful. If not for some really bad teams in the B1G right now they would be even lower on this list.

8.) Penn State (4-3)- Lost to Ohio State 63-14. Penn State got throttled in every aspect of the game against the Buckeyes. The team will need to do some soul searching this week.

9.) Indiana (3-4)- Indiana was on a BYE this past week.

10.) Illinois (3-4)- Lost to Michigan State 42-3. The Illini took a step back this week with an embarrassing home loss to the Spartans. They will need to regroup and play better if they hope to salvage the season.

11.) Purdue (1-6)- Purdue was on a BYE last week.

12.) Northwestern (4-4)- Lost to Iowa 17-10. After starting the year 4-0 the Wildcats have limped along to a 4-4 record. With 4 straight losses the Wildcats are going to struggle to become bowl eligible at this point.

Good Morning Buckeye Nation.

SuperBand: Grab your coffee, sit back and enjoy this video from The Best Damn Band In The Land.

Seems the Buckeye Band is constantly upping their game. This is why they are simply the best band.

BBall Preseason: Aaron Craft is one of the four B1G point guards named to the Cousy Award watchlist this season. Last season Craft was a Cousy semi-finalist. Its going to be an exciting season with Craft at the point again this year and the season tips off Monday Nov. 4th.

B1G Media Days: Miss the Men’s and Women’s Basketball teams media days this last weekend? Don’t worry so did I. Feel free to catch up like I am going to do (maybe I can break it down later and make a post for you).

Having Fun: I decided to have a little fun at Brady cHokes expense. Since we are inching closer to the Game it might be time to start making new stuff to get you all fired up for The Game. Yeah like you need me to help with that hahaha. Its Tuesday and TTUN still Sucks!!

Sorry for another short and sweet post today but dipping my feet back into the water and should be getting more from me soon. Until next time Buckeye Nation…

MotSaG Top 25 1. Oregon 2. Alabama 3. Ohio State 4. Florida State 5. Baylor 6. Miami 7. Stanford 8. Clemson 9. Oklahoma 10. Missouri 11. Auburn 12. Texas Tech 13. Fresno State 14. Northern Illinois 15. UCF 16. Oklahoma State 17. Texas A&M 18. Louisville 19. UCLA 20. Wisconsin 21. LSU 22. South Carolina 23. Michigan State 24. Arizona State 25. Michigan

Of all the weeks for Ohio State to set the box score on fire, it had to be this week, didn’t it? With Alabama taking care of business against a pesky Tennessee, Florida State pasting NC State and Oregon pulling away from UCLA, Ohio State’s 63-14 clubbing of the hapless Nittany Lions wasn’t able to stand out among a sea of blowouts.

I’m dropping Florida State because that Clemson victory last week seems to have lost a little luster, in my eyes, after seeing them struggle against Maryland. And NC State, for all the times they’ve played spoiler in the ACC, just aren’t that great. BUT, if Florida State can handle Miami next weekend, it will be hard to keep them out of the top two. I don’t think Miami is all that great, either, but beating two undefeated top-ranked teams has to stand for something.

I tried to keep the SEC from creeping back in to the rankings, but South Carolina deserves credit for beating Missouri, even if that game ended in the most Missouri-way possible. The rest of the SEC snacked on a bunch of scrubs that really shouldn’t count for much. But hey, SEC.

Our B1G brethren certainly didn’t help themselves, either. I considered Minnesota for the rankings for the first time in probably 8 years. They probably deserve it, too. But I threw Michigan in there because nothing will bring me more pleasure to see them fall out of the rankings AGAIN when they lose to their “little brothers” next week.