This should help you get excited for Monday. What happened the last time Tressel went to AZ for a championship?
This:
Announcers are Paul Keels and Jim Lachey.
H/T to (who else?!?): Jeff
No overconfidence here
January 6, 2007 by 4 Comments
If you haven’t heard, Florida is supposed to win on Monday.
Have you got that yet? Flip on a BCS (or any other bowl) game during halftime, or visit internet articles and forums, and you’ll hear prognosticators running through the same drill:
- Florida will win because OSU can’t handle the Gators’ speed
- Florida will win because they are the equivalent of the underdog 2002 OSU Buckeyes squad
- Florida will win because of the superiority of the SEC
- Florida will win because Heisman winners rarely perform well in bowl games
- Florida will win because it has the best defense that OSU has ever seen
- Florida will win because OSU had 51 days off
- Florida will win because everyone is assuming OSU will win
Wait, what?!? So… the media wants it both ways? They all want to pick Florida to win, but justify it by saying that there’s an “assumption” that OSU will dominate the Gators? Oxymoronic, if you ask me.
Let’s do the rundown.
Speed
…is present in both teams. Florida has some turf burners, that’s for sure. But OSU’s known for its uncanny speed, too; for example, the combined speed of G2, both of which are on the field at the same time. Running a 4.3 is running a 4.3, whether you’re from Cleveland or Florida.
Underdog status
…doesn’t exist here for either team. This game is not a mirror image of the 2002 championship game, mostly because 2006 OSU isn’t anywhere near as dominant, overconfident, and cocky as the 2002 Hurricanes were. That game truly was David vs. Goliath. Coker’s boys trickled into Arizona, having won about three dozen straight games, with a very laissez faire attitude, guaranteeing victory and mocking the pitiful Buckeyes. No way Tressel allows his players to think or behave that way. Trust us: it’s been all business for six weeks straight. Also, the Buckeyes entered that game 13-0; while Florida has a loss.
And this year, Florida is a powerhouse; no question about it. Both teams match up against one another very, very well. Specifically, both teams happen to be strong in areas in which the other is weak. This indicates that the game might be a high-scoring affair. For instance, OSU’s defense has had difficulty with mobile quarterbacks and the spread option this year.
There are absolutely no similarities between these teams and the teams from the 2002 game, no matter how much some Gator fans want to play the underdog role.
SEC is better!!
Nope. Where did this argument come from, anyway? From a bunch of ten-year-old boys on a schoolbus? The best teams of the major conferences are always pretty similar in strength. Parity is too widespread nowadays, and most big programs use similar practicing and conditioning techniques.
At any rate, the SEC is 0-3 against Big 10 this season. The Big 10’s #3 & #4 beat the SEC’s #3 & #4 in last week’s bowl games. Head to head, that’s pretty telling, but I still maintain that you can’t use the “conference is better than yours” argument to predict victory or defeat. Not when you give two great teams a month to get ready for each other.
Heisman winners underachieve in bowl games
The logic goes like this: Because the Heisman winner is running around to awards ceremonies, staying in hotels while his teammates practice without him, the team’s performance suffers. Maybe so, but as was reported earlier this week (no link yet), Smith has only missed one day of practice. And there’s no way Tressel would keep Smith off the practice field; it’s the only way his first team defense can get ready for Leak & Tebow.
OSU hasn’t seen a defense like Florida’s
Now we can get into some real analysis.
OSU’s offense has played against the following great defenses:
- Michigan (1st in rushing defense, 8th in scoring, 9th against first downs), Texas (2nd against the rush, 16th against first downs), and Penn State (10th against the rush, 11th in scoring).
Against those three teams, OSU racked up 1,104 yards of offense and 11 touchdowns. And this includes its worst-of-the-year performance against Penn State during a heavy downpour that slowed both offenses. Including that game, OSU’s offense averaged 368 yards in those contests; without it, 425 yards. Florida’s defense (statistically) matches up relatively close to these three teams.
Let’s also consider individual talent. OSU’s offense has played against the following defensive superstars:
- All three finalists of the Bednarik Award (Posluszny, Connor, Woodley); two finalists of the Jim Thorpe Award (Leon Hall, Aaron Ross); one finalist of the Butkus Award (Posluszny); three finalists of the Lombardi Award (Posluszny, Woodley, Blalock); and one finalist of the Nagurski Trophy (Hall).
After Monday’s game, OSU will add Reggie Nelson to that list. And this doesn’t count the finalists/winners on OSU’s team (Pitcock, Laurinaitis, Smith, et. al) that the OSU offense practices against every day.
Ohio State had a crippling 51-day layoff
This argument might have a smidge of meat to it. However, I’m not thinking that any “rust” OSU might have come Monday is going to be enough to ensure a Florida victory, for two reasons:
(1) Tressel. He has repeatedly shown time and time again an ability to get a team ready for a big game. OSU teams are never over- or under-prepared. It’s enough of a track record to have confidence, at any rate. Besides, earlier this year there was a nine-month layoff between the Notre Dame and Northern Illinois games, and the OSU offense picked right up where it left off in January.
(2) When people speak of “rust,” they actually mean “timing,” which is more important in the rushing game than the passing. Expect Tressel, like he has all season long, to use the pass to set up the rush.
Final Thoughts
The OSU squad, full of veterans, is not as likely to be nervous or intimidated at the colossal hype & emotion of the game. This is the third #1 vs. #2 game OSU has been in this year alone.
Florida has an impressive defense, but it will not stop OSU from putting up a significant amount of points on the board. Reggie Nelson cannot cover Ginn, Gonzo, Hall, Robiskie, Hartline, Small, Pittman, Wells, Nichol, and Ballard, seven or eight of which are on the field for every play. (And that doesn’t count Troy Smith’s own feet, either). OSU will score some points.
The “unknown” of the game is how well Florida’s offense and OSU’s defense match up. Turnovers will be a huge factor… and I think the game’s outcome could hinge on them. Florida is 78th overall in throwing interceptions, and OSU is tied for second in the nation for most interceptions gained.
Therefore, whether or not the Gators earn a second national title will totally depend on whether or not Chris Leak and Tim Tebow can (1) avoid mistakes and (2) outscore Troy Smith and his countless offensive weapons. Period.
Enough for now! We’ll be doing our predictions on Monday’s Open Thread, so check back then. In the meantime, you might find it interesting to peruse Vegas’ considerations on the teams’ trends going into the game.
Dagnabbit*$@!!
January 6, 2007 by Leave a Comment
I blame Drew and TruthSerum.
Too many times, I’ve gotten burned. Stayed up past midnight to watch the Jackets lose.
Last night, I was a bad fan. “Oh, I’ll keep an eye on the score, but I am not committing 2-1/2 hours to another west coast game, especially when it starts after 10pm and is against the NHL-leading Ducks.”
So, I lazed in bed, flipping back and forth between the Jackets/Ducks game and Young Frankenstein, keeping an eye on the score but refusing to get “into” the game.
- “He would have an enormous svwahnshtuger. Woof.”
Period 2: Ducks 1, Jackets 0
“It was Abi… someone. Yes… Abi… normal. I’m almost sure that was the name.”
Period 2: Ducks 2, Jackets 0
“Come back!! Aw… I was gonna make espresso.”
Period 3: Ducks 3, Jackets 0
Sheesh. So not only are the Jackets gonna lose, but looks like another shutout. I felt bad for those folks that were going to stay up until 12:30 to see another embarrassing collapse. I’ve learned my lesson.
So, I turned the TV off, just moments before the most exciting comeback in recent CBJ memory. Apparently, within ten minutes, the Jackets scored four goals to win the game, the last with only 1:20 left on the clock. The period even included Norrena turning away a dramatic penalty shot with 21 seconds remaining to keep the victory assured.
Curse my remote-control-pressing thumb.
I feel bad for missing the victory, of course, but I feel a little ashamed of my desire to not stay up late watching the Blue Jackets get burned again. I guess it bordered on bandwagon-ish behavior. Are you a fan, or not? I ask myself. Ah, well. I suppose I now realize that one of the “pros” of the possible realignment is that we won’t have to deal with this on a regular basis anymore. Almost all our games would be against teams in the UT-5 zone.
As for me, I’m off to watch the highlights now.
Simply the best
January 2, 2007 by 17 Comments
Wow. How awesome was that game?
What a courageous performance! Chad Henne continues to prove that he’s the most underrated player in the country. Three hundred and nine yards, punks! In the Rose Bowl. Ha! Remember the “awesome” Vince Young? He only threw for 267 yards last year. In the Rose Bowl. Against the same USC defense. It continues to anger all objective fans of college football that Henne wasn’t invited to New York. Stupid anti-Michigan bias.
And Michael Hart’s two-point conversion was a thing of beauty. And did you see how awesome his first play from scrimmage was?!? Holy cow, his first run alone was good enough for a first down!
Defense-wise, how classy was the UM secondary? In the face of what must have been overwhelming sadness over the loss of Gerald Ford, the “English Majors” wiped away the tears and were able to force a turnover against the mighty Men of Troy.
Crable, sad in rememberance of Bo and Gerald, was all like “im in ur city, forcin’ ur turnovers.”
When it’s all said and done, it’s clear to everyone that Michigan was, in fact, cheated out of a Glendale spot. They are clearly the best team in the country. Okay, maybe the second-best team. But since they didn’t get a rematch with OSU, we’ll never know who was the better team there. Only Glendale could have solved that problem. Stupid poll voters and their anti-Michigan bias.
I know some will point to the fact that USC won this game, but only if you define “win” in the “who had more points on the scoreboard when the game ended” way. So, not so fast, my friend! Consider the following:
The only reason USC won this sham of a game was that crappy field. Anyone else notice that only Michigan players were slipping? I call shenanigans. Someone needs to sneak into the USC locker room tonight and check the players’ cleat length. It’s not fair. I think there should be a new NCAA rule that every team gets field turf like what’s installed at the Big House. Real grass is so… well… real. And it’s soooo “20th century”-ish. Could we all step into the future, please, before any more tragedies occur? How many national titles must be sacrificed until the NCAA steps in and evens the field for everyone?
Besides, Super Mario, Arrington, and Hart are more susceptible to bad grass than anyone on the Trojans’ squad. Those guys don’t make as many cuts as the well-schooled UM playmakers do.
Also, the only reason USC won the game tonight was the terrible weather conditions. USC “somehow” managed to get Michigan driving into the sun during the game’s opening drive. Write it down: if it was a cloudy day, the Heisman runner-runner-runner up Hart would have turned that initial 10-yard scamper into a long touchdown run. Southern Cal just lucked out, there. Who knows what would have happened had the game kicked off three hours later? It could have been a totally different game. Stupid solar system and its anti-Michigan bias.
The physical elements were all like “im in ur stadium, forcin’ ur loss.”
What about that crappy officiating, anyway? Anyone with eyes could clearly see that Morgan Trent wasn’t ready when the ball was snapped on Jarrett’s 65-yard TD catch. Aren’t they supposed to catch those things? Stupid ACC officials and their anti-Michigan bias.
And how come nobody’s talking about all the extra weight the Michigan team was carrying around? Every-single-player was wearing an extra “48/Bo” sticker on his helmet to honor those former team leaders. I saw the assistants carry a box full of those stickers onto the sidelines before the game started. The box looked heavy to me. Five pounds, at least. And we’re not just talking about weight, here; it’s a fact that the drag coefficience of a non-stickered helmet is superior to that of a stickered one. USC players didn’t have to deal with the extra air drag. Stupid stickers and their anti-Mich… well, you see where I’m going, here. At any rate, that’s a Michigan player for you. Willing to risk bad drag-coefficience to honor a fallen comerade.
The sticker is all like “im on ur helmet, ruinin’ ur streamlinin'”
But trust me, the reason the Trojans didn’t wear the stickers wasn’t only to gain the streamlining advantage. It’s just the culture of USC fans to be “anti-Michigan,” instead of “pro-USC.” How classless. Refusing to wear the stickers just proved how much they hate Schembechler and Ford, and the depths they would go to just to win.
Speaking of classlessness, it was also disgusting to see the criminalistic attitudes of USC fans cheering every time the Trojans had a somewhat decent play. Trust me, they weren’t cheering for USC, they were cheering against Michigan. I feel bad for the Michigan fans that had to thread their way through Pasadena after the game, without national guard support or anything. But that’s a UM fan for you, risking his or her life in rough environments to support the winningest team in history. What touching loyalty.
So, that’s my opinion. The University of Michigan Wolverines, the better team on the field yet again, and cheated out of a BCS title, yet again. Just wait ’til next year, baby!!
QED.
CBJ 3, Referees 4
December 30, 2006 by 7 Comments
Normally, I try not to complain about officiating when a team I’m pulling for loses. Tonight I’ll make an exception, as I’m still nauseous over the horrible display of officiating that cost the Blue Jackets a point.
It is not fanaticism to notice that the officials were clearly in Minnesota’s pocket tonight. The Wild were allowed to commit penalties at will, while Columbus was forced into eleven (!) penalty kills. Hooks, tackles, interference, etc. all happened within inches of referee Tom Kowal, who kept his hands in his pockets, rolled his eyes, and whistled dixie.
And this isn’t just my opinion; I have never seen Rims or Gare (FSN Ohio broadcasters) litterally speechless.
You know, if the Jackets are going to the sin bin anyway, and if they’re going to lose no matter what, they might as well put enforcers like Shelly to work. Boorgaard especially needs a dose of humble pie. Chickening out of a scrap with Shelly, then skating far away from the C-bus bench and turning and taunting them is just pathetic.
“As long as Kowal’s the ref, I can do what I please.”
The icing on the cake was the OT goal given to the Wild. In case you’re just catching up: Minnesota center Wes Walz charged the net, a puck came flying in, got caught in his pants (we think!), and he skated across the goal line. The red light went off, but the goal was quickly, and correctly, waved off. (It’s against the rules to advance the puck across the goal line in your pants. This is what I call the “David-Copperfield-doesn’t-play-NHL-hockey” rule.) Furthermore, video replays simply showed the puck disappear. I mean, it simply disappeared. There was no way to know where the puck was, if it crossed the line, etc.
Now remember, you can’t wave a goal off and then have it count later. Especially when there is no conclusive evidence to the contrary. Especially especially if a player carries it across the goal line in his equipment.
Think that mattered to Toronto? Nope. After a ten minute conversation with the war room, when Kowal no doubt chatted about his desire to give the Wild two points, or his “stupid” contact lens prescription, or his hatred of the Jackets, Toronto agreed to let him give the Wild the goal anyway.
Again, the Jackets are battling for that eighth seed. Every point counts. I suppose this is righteous indignation for a team that just can’t catch a break.
Silver-lining wise (I guess I always have something positive to say), Zherdev showed more improvement tonight than we’ve seen from him in the past month. Nash again continues to make PKs a dangerous time for the opposition. If the Jackets aren’t going to the playoffs, lets hope they make the west central miserable for everyone in the meantime.
Week #17 — Bowls — Open Thread
December 29, 2006 by 1 Comment
Note: Most MotSaG contributors are on vacation this week, so I’m not sure how “open” this open thread will be. If no one chimes in, then you’ll just have to humor me as I speak to myself. Or better yet, join in via the comments.
Bowl season in the Big Te(leve)n kicks off today, with Minnesota (Insight bowl) and Purdue (Champs Sports). Tomorrow, Iowa plays Texas (Alamo). New Year’s Day features Penn St. (Outback), Wisconsin (Capital One), and Michigan (Rose). And of course, OSU returns to the BCS title game on Jan 8th. (I won’t cover that here. Watch this space next week for all the talk and analysis you can handle.)
To this writer, the most intriguing matchups are Wisconsin/Arkansas and Michigan/USC. JoePa vs. Fulmer comes in a close third.
Wisconsin vs. Arkansas, Capital One Bowl, Jan 1st — Both Wisconsin and Arkansas finished second in their conferences, but did not qualify for BCS consideration because of the “two-teams-per-conference” rule. Still, both teams are without question among the nation’s best.
Wisconsin has a chance to finish with a 12-win season for the first time in its history. Using P.J. Hill, the Badgers will bring an old-school rushing attack against the Razorbacks’ defense, which is ranked 43rd nationally against the rush. Arkansas will bring an electrifying rushing attack of its own behind Darren McFadden, who finished as first runner-up for this year’s Heisman Trophy.
Whichever running back has the better game will likely be the Heisman front-runner going into next season.
Michigan vs. USC, Rose Bowl, Jan 1st — Michigan’s excellent season finishes in the familiar locale of Pasadena. There are a lot of strong feelings and emotions about this game, but we’ll avoid the insane melodrama that some are getting sucked into.
Some UM fans (and even some in the media) are holding out hope for a split national title should UM win the game and Florida beat OSU. Could someone explain this scenario to me? Let me get this straight: Florida beats consensus #1 OSU, who beat UM, so somehow UM gets the title? Not gonna happen.
Questions
How many bowl victories will the Big Te(leve)n accrue (out of seven)?
Will JoePa make it through the Outback Bowl with all of his limbs intact?
Who will have a better game, PJ Hill or Darren McFadden?
Who wins the Rose?
sportsMonkey’s predictions:
Big Te(leve)n bowl record: 4-3
Will JoePa survive?: Perhaps. With help.
Hill or McFadden: McFadden has the better game, but I think Wisco wins a close one.
Rose: I think USC will win. And this isn’t OSU homerism. I actually hope UM wins… it’d be great if the Big Ten finished 1-2-3 in the final standings. But in a Carr vs. Carroll matchup, I gotta go with Carroll. Plus, USC has been reduced to a sideshow in the game, as everyone in the media has been focusing on the circus of controversy and emotions surrounding Michigan. This could motivate them significantly. This year’s Rose Bowl could be one of the closest in history.
Sylvester Yon-Rambo’s predictions:
Big Te(leve)n bowl record: 7-0
Will JoePa survive?: He will survive with all his limbs, but it will be a 3 DEPENDS game if you know what I mean.
Hill or McFadden: Hill has a huge game, McFadden is shut down big time.
Rose: I am picking scUM in this game, as I truly believe they are the 2nd best team in CFB this year, unfortunately for them it is a very distant 2nd best team from my beloved BUCKEYES.
“There was no extra benefit”
December 28, 2006 by 2 Comments
Spaghettigate looks to be drawing to a close.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer is reporting the NCAA’s Bob Williams said, “If it’s determined that money did not go to either family, then one would deduce that there was no extra benefit.”
Therefore, since the money from the fund raiser went to a nonprofit Pee Wee football league, it appears Beanie and Pittman are in the clear.
This has been a silly, frivolous waste of time. Two families living close to (or below) the poverty line have a one in a million shot to see their sons play for a national championship, so their friends and neighbors gather together to help find a way to help them afford the trip. Next thing you know, someone finds an obscure passage in the telephone-book sized NCAA rulebook that forbids it, so the players have to leave and the families have to give the money away.
This is exactly the type of thing that the NCAA should allow. A community helping its members is a pretty noble thing. This type of heavy-handedness is exactly why collegiate boosters have so much power & temptation over star players. “C’mon, take it. You know the NCAA won’t allow your family to raise money to come see you play.”
All this has done is give the media another chance to throw darts at OSU and give UM fans something else minor to add to their “zOMG teh OSU iz criminalz one!!11eleventyone!” lists.
I’d also bet that this situation has hardened Pittman’s stance on returning for another year. Would you come back to deal with this kind of hilarity, if you had an opportunity to be free from it?
UPDATE:
OSU’s investigation is complete; they’ve declared that no wrongdoing occurred.
Realignment?
December 27, 2006 by 8 Comments
The NHL Board of Governors will vote in February on realigning the teams into new divisions and conferences. Apparently, they want to maximize television ratings and ease up on travel for teams by confining divisions into time zones.
Most teams will “remain” where they are, conference-wise. They may have new divisions, but will remain playing the same conference rivals as before. Only Atlanta and Columbus will switch conferences.
If it’s approved, the Blue Jackets would move from the West Central to the Northeast Division. The Jackets would leave behind division opponents St. Louis, Nashville, Chicago, and Detroit; and start playing against Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Buffalo, Boston, and Pittsburgh.
First thought: Intriguing that the BOG is interested in television ratings, when they really need to be worrying about attendance.
Second thought: Aw, shoot. Just when the rivalry between the Red Wings and Blue Jackets started turning into something serious (has anyone gotten IwoCPO a friggin’ bucket yet?!?). The opportunity to have another major rival from the Detroit area was perfect.
Third thought: Pittsburgh? I know Balsillie sent a “will you go with me [check box]?” letter to Mario yesterday, but that controversy is far from over.
Speaking of Northeast Conference teams…
CBJ 3, Vyborny 2, Bruins 4
Was ready to puke by late in the second period. Boston seemingly couldn’t be stopped. Then Hitch said something during the second intermission, probably something about honor, hard work, the weather in Syracuse this time of year, who knows. All I know is that the Jackets came out and played like they were trying to win the Cup.
Vyborny rightfully gets the props for the victory, but Fedorov and Nash were the leaders on the ice last night. Nash didn’t manage any points, but was without question the single most dangerous player on the ice. (Nash got an assist on Feddy’s shorthanded goal. Thanks to Drew for the correction). What a great move Hitch made in getting him involved in penalty kills. And Sergei hasn’t played this well since he was my regular choice of the forwards in Sega’s NHL 94.
Any night the opposing goalie breaks his stick smashes the pipes in frustration after the final horn sounds is a great night of hockey for me.
Antonio Smith has hurt shoulder
December 22, 2006 by Leave a Comment
Bad news for Buckeye fans… starting cornerback Antonio Smith has been seen wearing an arm sling.
No details as of yet. It’s a good thing the title game is 17 days away.
Octopi 5, CBJ 0
December 21, 2006 by 2 Comments
*groan* The Columbus Bipolar Jackets gave two points to Detroit last night. Just handed it to them. Wrapped it up in a big box with a festive red and white bow and handed it to the Wings, who then proceeded to tear into it like an aroused spider monkey after a triple-espresso.
Deadspin’s link to the fiasco read:
“Columbus falls out of the suck tree and hits every branch on the way down, and then rolls into the brutal well.”
Ouch.
It was a bad game. So bad I don’t want to write about it. You can go to the – usual – suspects for more analysis.
I’ll infuriate you with a quote from AP sports:
“It was a good bounce-back effort for Hasek, who was lifted after allowing three first-period goals in a 4-3 loss on Monday night in Columbus.
“‘We know we’re a better team,” he said. “And if you want to be a contender, a top team in the NHL, you can’t lose two games in a row to a team like Columbus.”’
Double Ouch.
So, there’s a silver lining?
Yup. Even considering last night’s spanking, so far in December the Jackets have earned 13 out of 20 points (including that awesome 11-of-12 run earlier in the month). Plus, the schedule is a bit more favorable over the coming week, so that % should improve. If they win even half of December’s remaining six games, they’ll finish with having earned at least 59% of the month’s points (compared to November’s 25%). Improvement continues.
