Archives for October 2013

Welcome to the weekly installment where we look at the game from a statistical perspective. Feel free to add your thoughts. What stats impressed you? Any stats concern you? The past two games have been eerily similar in flow (slow first half / dominant second half). Do the numbers tell the same story? Here are 5 stats that stood out to me against Iowa and a few bonus stats since I missed the last game against Northwestern.

273/222 – The headline of Bill Rabinowitz’s colmun in the Dispatch reads, “Ohio State 34, Iowa 24: Buckeyes regain their balance”. The Buckeyes used a balanced attack to outlast Iowa. OSU rushed for 273 and passed for 222 yards. Comparatively, the Buckeyes rushed for 248 and passed for 203 yards against Northwestern. Not sure what balance was regained this week; I think the Buckeyes have done a good job all year maintaining balance, especially since the return of Braxton and Carlos. Looking at the balance over the last two games got me thinking about the entire season. I have expressed some concern after other games about the lack of touches for some players. After looking at the yearly offensive stats to date, I was amazed how much this year has been a true “team effort”. Obviously there have been some extenuating circumstances such as injuries and suspensions that have led to the team balance, but nonetheless I thought this graphic was impressive.

The same can be said for the defense. In my opinion, not one defensive player has been head and shoulders better than anyone else. There have been a lot of guys contributing to the cause as seen by this graphic.

24-7 – After the first few games, we were raving about how the Buckeyes were starting games and absolutely dominating the first quarter. The last two games have been the complete opposite. The Buckeyes have started slow and dominated the second half. I agree with most things I have read, Iowa had a great game plan and the 24-7 second half score had a lot to do with adjustments at half time. Two consecutive 10 point wins were supported by an impressive second half. The Buckeyes beat down Northwestern 27-10 in the second half two weeks ago.

24-149-2 – Carlos Hyde is a huge reason why the Buckeyes dominated the second halves. He rushed for 149 yards and 2 TD’s (both in the second half) on 24 carries. Against NW, he rushed for 168 yards and 3 TD’s (all three in the second half) on 26 carries. HOLY BUCKEYE! He is crazy good.

25:00 – 35:00 – Time of Possession does not always decide who is going to win the game. In my opinion, its importance is dependent on a team’s offensive scheme and style. That being said, an offense cannot score without the ball (duh!). For OSU, I think time of possession is key because of its balanced attack of run and throw. The more time with the ball in Braxton’s hands, the better. Another eye-opening stat about the tale of two halves in the Iowa game was the ToP. Check out the difference between the first and second half (OSU on the right).

Contrast that with Oregon this past week…WSU ToP 35:39 – ORE ToP 24:21 and Oregon won 62-38.

0 – The number of punts and turnovers. If the OSU offense does that every week, they will be hard to beat. What we learned…keep the ball in the offense’s hands and the Buckeyes win. No one has been able to stop the offense on a consistent basis yet! GO BUCKS!

Any other key stats against Iowa?

Kirk Ferentz and his Iowa Hawkeyes scripted the perfect game plan to beat Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes. It still didn’t work as Meyer remains unbeaten in 19 tries as the head coach of Ohio State. Iowa used multiple tight end sets to confuse and rattle the Buckeyes as well as keep them off balance with consistent running from running backs Mark Weisman and Damon Bullock. He finished the game with 52 yards on 10 carries while Bullock finished with 56 yards on 10 carries as well. Iowa seized control in the first half possessing the ball for 18:05 running 43 plays to Ohio States 11:55 and 25 plays taking a 17-10 lead into the half. Jake Rudock was very efficient in the first half and found his tight ends time and time again to keep drives alive. At one point in the first half Iowa was 7/8 converting on 3rd down. Rudock was 19 of 34 for 245 yards with 3tds and 1 int.

Ohio State adjusted nicely in the second half using Iowa’s game plan against them. A healthy dose of Hyde and using Braxton Millers legs, put Ohio State in the end zone 3 times in the second half. Once again, Meyer put the game on the shoulders of his two offensive weapons as Hyde finished with 149 yards on 24 carries and 2 touchdowns. Miller finished with 222 yards passing on 22/27 completing and 60 yards rushing and 2 passing Tds.

For the 3rd consecutive time in the series, a game between Ohio State and Iowa was tied going into the 4th quarter. A huge part of that was an 85 yard TD pass from Jack Rudock to Jake Duzey who had gotten behind Armani Reeves and sprinted to the end zone. Not to be outdone, Carlos Hyde had a run for the ages on 19 yard TD run where it looked as though he was going to stumble backwards and go down. He regained his composure and dove into the end zone for the score.

Don’t compare Basketball season to football season according to Meyer. While basketball season has March Madness to end the season, the entire season is March Madness in Meyer’s opinion. Today’s game was a perfect example. Any team on any given day can challenge a team that might have more 5 star recruits, higher paid coaches and in a more fertile recruiting area. Though something tells me Meyer wouldn’t want it any other way.

Iowa comes to town, and some of us will be chatting in the Live Chat. If you’re interested, we’d love to have you.

Hit the jump to join the fun in the Live In Game Chat.

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Good morning Buckeye Nation.

Long Time: Is it me or did it seem like its been a long time since we seen the Buckeyes football team in action? Have no fear for the wait is finally over and gameday is here, today’s opponent is the Iowa Hawkeyes. The last time they played each other was 2010 I believe with OSU winning 20-17 in Iowa, Kirk Ferentz is 1-7 vs the Buckeyes. Here’s a recap of that game for you to enjoy:

2018-2019 Announcement: I know we might be getting ahead of ourselves here but the B1G made an announcement on the dates for the 2018 and 2019 season openers and also the conference championship dates. Beginning in 2016 the B1G will move to a 9 game conference schedule first time since the 1983-84 seasons.

Mindnumbing BS: Everywhere you look these days everyone is saying how weak the schedule the Buckeyes play even if they go undefeated they might be left out of the title game. Bleacher Report just had a post about it tying the Buckeye with Louisville about strength of schedule. Well Louisville dropped their game last night to UCF so that link will now be dead, but my issue is the strength of schedule talk. Is it the Buckeyes fault that when they scheduled Cal they would basically suck years later? Its Ohio States fault for Vandy backing out too right. Wait nope its the Buckeyes fault that the rest of the B1G is unfortunately looking terrible around the country. I mean come on here Michigan drops to Penn State last week and Brady cHoke had a top ten team recruiting this last year. Look besides scUM recruiting well and having an over hyped coach that is not Ohio States fault for everyone else falling short. Every week you play a conference foe you have to bring your A game and every week you win you should be rewarded doesn’t matter what the score and style points are. Everyone remember the magical year of 2001 when there were a ton of close games and the Buckeyes pulled them out and were rewarded with a trip to a National Championship and beat Miami. Basically stop blaming the Buckeye for the weak schedule blame the B1G for they should be ashamed of themselves.

Football Committee: The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has finally been announced. The 13 member committee is a who’ who of college football. Tom Osborne, Archie Manning, and Barry Alvarez are just some of the members. There has been many people complaining about former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice being on this committee which is mind boggling to me. Rice is very knowledgeable about football heck shes a Cleveland Browns fans. You can pick any NFL team in the country and you pick the Browns tells me you know your stuff!!

Be Thankfully: I always try to remember whatever I am going through life there is someone who is going through something worse than myself. Well this seems it could relate to sports, no matter how bad that black eye that was left on the Buckeyes football program nothing can be compared to this.

Until next time Buckeye Nation…

We’re finally here. After this week’s games, the first BCS rankings will be released. For those of you who have been following “5 Things” over the years, or who have talked football with me in person, you know that I’m not a fan of the BCS formula. Particularly, I am not at all a fan of the Coaches Poll because it’s so superficial. I don’t think it’s always the actual coaches making the votes (which several coaches have admitted) and coaches have neither the time nor the inclination to watch games that involve teams that don’t have a direct impact on their team (e.g. teams within their own conference or teams ranked above them). I also don’t like that the big thing that was supposed to be better about this formula is the input of the computers because they were supposed to inject some objectivity into the process, but most years the two human polls make the computer rankings virtually irrelevant.

The first selection committee for the college playoffs was officially announced this week (even though virtually every member’s name was already leaked), and I don’t have a problem with any of the selections. I’m a little curious how they determined who was going to be the chairman (Arkansas AD Jeff Long), but I don’t really have any objection to that selection either. The most interesting choice in my view, wasn’t Condoleezza Rice, it was Tom Jernstedt. While I think it’s a good choice because of his extensive experience being involved with the basketball selection committee, which I think will be useful for the first few years of this one, I think it’s interesting that a member of the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame is a member of the first College Football Playoff selection committee. That sounds like a trivia question waiting to happen.

Let’s dive into some of these games!

1. UCF at #8 Louisville (Friday 7pm CST on ESPN): I think this will likely be the last chance this regular season for a team to challenge the Cardinals. It’s certainly possible that Houston could challenge them, but the Cougars likely won’t be undefeated by then, as they have to face BYU, Rutgers, and UCF before they visit Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Week 12. Part of me hopes they make it through that schedule because I’d love to write about the Cougars’ quarterback who I think has the second-best last name in college football after Clinton-Dix — O’Korn. This week, Teddy Bridgewater’s team faces a one-loss UCF squad that nearly knocked off South Carolina and beat Penn State. The Knights have two players that are fun to watch, in quarterback Blake Bortles and tailback Storm Johnson. Johnson, a former Miami Hurricanes back, was in that stable of backs in the 2010 recruiting class that included Marcus Lattimore and Michael Dyer. I call Bortles the “poor man’s Johnny Manziel” because he’s very creative in the pocket. He doesn’t take off in the rushing game as often as Manziel ( and he’s only averaging a little over a yard per carry), but he’s great at extending plays and making things happen. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so tonight because if the Louisville defense plays as well as it did last week against Rutgers then the Knights will be in big trouble. The Cardinals defense picked off Gary Nova four times (he’d only thrown four all season before that) and held the Scarlet Knights to just 12 yards rushing (one of two teams to hold them to fewer than 185 yards). Bortles will have to take care of the ball and convert on third down this week because they need limit the opportunities Teddy Bridgewater, his stable of running backs, and one of the best receivers in the nation in the red zone (Devante Parker) are able to get. Louisville is third in the nation in third down defense, allowing a first down only 24% of the time. This game will be closer than people think, just as was the case when the Knights faced South Carolina, but I don’t see an upset here. Louisville wins.

2. No. 22 Florida at No. 14 Missouri (11:21am CST ESPN3): I wish this game was on television because I want to see how Missouri quarterback Maty Mauk does against a strong, but overworked, Florida Gators defense. In an SEC battle that will include two backup quarterbacks, I think the Tigers have the advantage in quarterback play. I realize he’s a redshirt freshman and hasn’t even played an entire quarter, but as I wrote earlier this week, this guy is going to be good. The problem is that the Gators pass defense hasn’t allowed 200 yards passing yet this season and that includes games against Miami’s Stephen Morris (boy, was he frustrating to watch last night against UNC!) and LSU’s Zach Mettenberger. It also bears mentioning that the Gators are also very good against the run, having only allowed two teams to rush for more than 100 yards (Arkansas and LSU). Missouri is averaging 239 yards on the ground and I think Maty Mauk is actually a little more mobile than James Franklin so it’s possible that could cause some trouble for the Gators. The biggest problem for the Gators defense is that they’re on the field too much. Their offensive counterparts are only converting a little over 46% of their third downs and are averaging nearly eight penalties per game. Florida also lost their second-leading rusher this week, Matt Jones, for the season with a torn meniscus. Perhaps this will be a chance for freshman Kelvin Taylor (son of Florida alum and longtime NFL star Fred Taylor) to get some carries. He’s going to be good, but there just wasn’t room to give him playing time behind Jones and Mack Brown. The Gators actually have not one, but two, cornerbacks that can line up against Missouri’s star sophomore wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham. He’s 6’6″ 225 and is a strong route runner, and he’ll have at least 6 inches on both Purifoy and Hargreaves III, but these two are great at positioning and being a ball hawk. In the red zone, though, I don’t know how they’d defend a fade route, or a back-shoulder throw. We’ll have to see how Coach Muschamp compensates for that. If Maty Mauk doesn’t turn the ball over, I think they have a chance to pull off another win. However, I think Florida’s defense wins out and either causes some turnovers or is dominant on third down (maybe both). Gators win a close one.

3. No. 9 UCLA at No. 13 Stanford (2:30pm CST ABC/ESPN2): UCLA is probably the team currently ranked in the top ten that gets the least amount of attention. Part of that is the fact that the west coast teams often play late and part of it is because the only Pac-12 teams that really are talked about are Oregon, USC, and Stanford. The Bruins already have road wins against Nebraska and Utah this season and are about to go through one heck of a stretch in their schedule (including this week at Stanford, at Oregon, Washington, and at USC). Stanford is coming off a loss to the Utes (at Utah) and I’m sure David Shaw has been working very hard this week to try to avoid back-to-back losses. The Cardinal haven’t lost two games in a row since 2009 when Jim Harbaugh’s squad lost at Oregon State and at Arizona. They’ll have to be very strong defensively to beat the Bruins as only four teams in the nation average more yards per game than UCLA (Baylor, Oregon, TAMU, and FSU). They’re averaging 547 yards of offense per game while Stanford is 48th in the nation in total defense allowing nearly 380 yards per game. UCLA’s Brett Hundley can often look like a prototypical pocket passer, but then he takes off running and changes the game. Even though I know he can run, it still often surprises me when he takes off. In that way, he reminds me of Andrew Luck in that he’s great in the pocket, but when he decides to run he has great athleticism. Hundley runs about twice as often as his counterpart, Stanford’s Kevin Hogan, but both are threats to run for a first down if it’s necessary. Both teams are in the top 15 in the nation in third down conversions, but I think what will change the game is defending them. The Bruins are second in the nation against third down conversions, only allowing a 24% conversion rate. I’m a big believer in the criticality of being able to convert third downs and being able to defend third downs and UCLA is in the top five in the nation in both categories. Stanford has to be thrilled that this game is at home, but I don’t think it will matter. Third downs will be the difference and I have to give UCLA the edge there. The Bruins win and, hopefully, gain some much-deserved attention for it.

4. Indiana at Michigan (2:30pm CST Big Ten Network): This seems like an odd choice of games to discuss doesn’t it? However, my Buckeyes face these two teams back to back to finish the regular season. Furthermore, I don’t put it past either of them to pull off a possible upset and you’ll see why. The Hoosiers rank 13th nationally in passing yards per game (331 yards per game) while averaging nearly 42 points per game. Coach Kevin Wilson is in his second year and has done a good job of implementing his offense from his days as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma (former winner of the Broyles award as the top assistant in the country). The Hoosiers have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team this year in that it’s been difficult to get a good read on just how good they really are. They lost to Navy but beat Penn State by 20, for example. This is only the second road game on the season for the Hoosiers after a loss at Michigan State last week. MSU’s top-ranked defense was one of only two teams this season that was able to stop Indiana from scoring at least 30 points (Missouri). Michigan has the 13th-ranked team in terms of total defense so I’m sure they feel like if they can hold the Hoosiers under 30 points, they have a chance. The Wolverines are coming off a crushing quadruple overtime loss to Penn State last week for their first loss of the season. The Achilles heel for Michigan this year is turnovers, however, because only twice this season have they lost fewer than three turnovers (1 versus Notre Dame and 0 versus Minnesota). Devin Gardner has thrown 10 interceptions (versus 11 touchdowns) and five of them have come on third down. Two of the five interceptions the Hoosiers have on the season have come on third down, so we should probably keep an eye on that. As a Buckeyes fan, I actually need both teams to win this game to help boost my team’s remaining schedule, but a Michigan win would help more because there’s a chance they’re a one-loss team going into the final game of the regular season (although they still play at Michigan State, Nebraska and at Northwestern). However, with the Hoosiers ability to put up yards and points, Michigan’s tendency to turn the ball over, and Michigan’s struggles against weak teams like Akron and Connecticut, I can’t reasonably pick a Wolverines victory here. Indiana wins and pulls the upset!

5. No. 5 Florida State at No. 3 Clemson (7pm CST ABC): This is the game that I’ve looked most forward to this season. It’s a battle of legitimate Heisman candidates (Tajh Boyd and Jameis Winston) at quarterback and for the lead in the ACC Atlantic. I have a feeling that after this game I’ll wish they were in different divisions so that there would be a chance for them to meet again in the ACC Championship. This game should answer a question I’ve had about each team thus far. For Clemson: How will the Clemson defense handle a mobile quarterback? Jameis Winston only has 36 rushing attempts this season (averaging 3.75 yards per rush), but anyone who has watched him play can see he can fly if the need arises — and that need hasn’t arisen very often thus far this season due to the competition faced. For Florida State: How will that defense that is currently ranked 7th nationally in total defense handle a team that averages nearly 82 plays per game when their opposition thus far has averaged a mere 64? I’ve been an advocate of Boyd’s for years and it appears his senior season is working its way to being his best. However, he and the rest of the Tigers need to get past what ESPN’s David Pollack calls “Clemsoning”, which he defines as collapsing in big games. He frequently points out that the it was just two bowl seasons ago that the Tigers lost 70-33 to West Virginia after winning its first ACC Championship in 20 years. I think beating LSU in last year’s bowl season and starting this season off with a win over a healthy Georgia team should have gone towards overcoming that “Clemsoning” stigma, but perhaps it will take passing this test to do that. Florida State has started nearly every season in recent memory with preseason hype because they are perennially stacked with fantastic athletes (and the media’s seeming love affair with quarterback EJ Manuel). If there were no preseason polls (my dream scenario), I don’t think Florida State would be ranked this high. Well, maybe they would be given the media sensation that his phenomenal play has made “Famous” Jameis Winston. Yes, they beat a ranked opponent, but all that did was show that Maryland shouldn’t have been ranked (they lost 63-0) and it almost seemed liked they were moved into the Top 25 for the sole purpose of giving FSU a win against a ranked opponent. They wouldn’t do that though. (Why isn’t there a sarcasm font?) Both of these teams are in the top 20 in both total offense and total defense and only six other teams can make that claim (only FSU and Wisconsin are in the top ten in both categories, however). Clemson is first in the nation defending third down only allowing a first down an amazing 23.71% of the time. Even a healthy Georgia converted just four third downs (in 14 attempts) against the Tigers. If I put that on top of the fact that Clemson is playing at home (in the other Death Valley) where they’ve lost just three times since 2010, then I cannot convince myself to pick the Seminoles. I think “Famous” Jameis will still have a good game, but Clemson will lean on the senior quarterback to come through in the clutch and he’ll respond. Clemson wins a close one!

P.S. I think USC will upset Notre Dame as well.

Iowa comes to town tomorrow to take on the #4 ranked Buckeyes in a 3:30 match-up for the first time in quite some time.

I was at that overtime win in 2009 with my brother-in-law and it was a wild ride of a game. I wish I could be in the ‘Shoe with y’all to cheer on OSU.

Here’s our Friday Open Thread for everyone’s enjoyment. We’ve had a nice week off with the bye, but it’s time to get back into a Buckeye frame of mind.

Some links about the upcoming game:

• Chip wants to see some sizzle and style this week from the Ohio State offense. I don’t think he’s alone in that wish, both from Buckeye fans and from the CFB media. (You know, the gatekeepers).
• I took a look at the statistics of this week’s match-up, and while it looks to tilt in favor of Ohio State, the two teams will have some interesting matchups
• Shannon sat down with Rick (@plannedsickdays) of blackheartgoldpants.com to discuss the match-up from the Iowa point of view. Having not seen Iowa much this year, this was enlightening:
  

  MotSaG: What is the biggest difference for Iowa this season compared to last year?
  BHGP: The biggest difference has to be quarterback play. The offense starts with the QB and last year James Vandenberg and Greg Davis’ offense were not a fit. Jake Rudock can make plays with his feet and extend drives. He’s won two rivalry games on the road and shown poise and pocket presence we didn’t expect to see until maybe later in the season.

• Before writing this week’s preview, Kade took up the crusade of defending Braxton Miller against the complaints that he isn’t running the read option as effectively as he could (or as well as Kenny Guiton). Video evidence is included.
• Ronnie took his usual look at the players to watch this week, including some new options in the defensive backfield:
  

  Meyer seems to be pressing for Coach Withers to get Vonn Bell ready to go and play. I think that will be Ohio States best option. Bell is already a solid tackler, but his speed is extremely underrated. Bell may make mistakes, but his speed may help him make up for those mistakes. He was not recruited heavily to just sit on the bench.

• Finally, Kade looks at this week’s matchup in his Iowa Preview. The takeaway:
  

  Iowa is a solid football team and as always well coached. They are a little in over their head vs. Ohio State however and this one should be over midway through the 3rd quarter. I see Iowa keeping things close for a bit and the Buckeyes pouring it on as the game wears on. Eventually Iowa will have to rely on their passing game and it will let them down. They lack the playmakers to keep up with the Ohio State offense, which is averaging 46.8 points per game, good for 6th in the country. Iowa REALLY struggles with the playaction game and OSU thrives on that. OSU should cruise.

Iowa and Ohio State have quite a history. Relive the glory days with this week’s Amazon Item for the Game: Iowa Hawkeyes v Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten Football Game Program 1959. Sure seems like a simpler time back then.

So how do you see it? Is this game going to be an easy win for the Buckeyes or are the Hawkeyes going to more of a challenge and offer some stiff resistance? What worries you?