Archives for October 2013

Our long national nightmare has finally subsided.  The first BCS standings were released last Sunday, which is college football’s weekly gift of sports “informative murder porn.“  To no one’s surprise, our beloved Buckeyes were sitting outside of the top two. The cries of the carrots were coming from Eugene and premature congratulations were heard from Tallahassee.  There is a long way to go ladies and gentleman.  The meat of Orygun’s schedule is upcoming (UCLA, Stanford, and even Oregon State) and FSU still has North Carolina State (not kidding…FSU’s Bogey Team since like the Philip Rivers days)  and Florida on its docket of remaining games. In the default SHESH-SHEE-SHEE top spot, Alabama get’s its free pass for the year, when they have been an absolute hot mess on offense and a defense that doesnt really make you think Saban defense. I mean, come on now, the SEC has won the last 7 or 50 BCS Title Games, so Alabama has to be given a pass, when it has played a marginally better schedule than any of other contenders at this point.  (Btw…Nothing warms the cockles of my heart more than watching vaunted SEC defenses get shredded by a pass-happy B12 team that just joined the conference last year.  Which team am I talking about?  The answer is “yes.”)

I have been writing/blogging off and on within the Buckeye sports world since 2005 starting a little site named “Death Cab For Woody.”  You might remember it and probably hated it.  The site is still up, but was effectively “mothballed” and it has the feel of a geocities page.  There are many peeps that have been around longer (Ramzy, folks at the BBC, and a few others) and are most likely better (Almost Everybody).  I am just simple-folk living in the Emerald City for the last 7 years, so I can admit with the utmost confidence that I am probably a little out of touch with the Buckeye Nation.  Hell, I regularly tailgate at UDub Husky games on plenty of OSU gamedays…and sometimes…I dont even watch the games until after I get home from Husky Stadium (THE HORROR!!!).  I understand that this confession is nothing short of heresy, but I am also willing to admit that this distance between myself and Columbus affords me the opportunity to gain perspective.  This perspective has allowed me to enjoy every win of this streak and not worry about style points.  These style points are nonsense.  They simply provide narrative for media types that cant get out of there own way to layout double-standards between similar teams/schedules and make no attempt to hide their own personal bias when talking about teams or conferences.  Most of us Buckeyes have a favorite national media type that we loathe.  Whether it be Matt Hayes and his “Living With a Buckeye Series on Twitter” or Clay Travis and his ability to dumb down any topic so that his SEC followers will eat it up like a Stucky’s roadside pastry and wash it down with eleventy-billion gallons of sweet tea, this is why we love college football.  The “hate.”  Nothing is better than a good clean hate towards a team or media clown…or even an entire conference.  It is sweet music for your eyes to see the SEC take one on the chin last weekend and there are finally whispers of overrating the conference…FINALLY.  Dont fret though.  Within a week, we’ll get to see an article from Barrett Sallee or Tony Barnhart lavishing over the qualities of Kentucky Football and how it could finish in the top 3 of any other major conference in America.  Appreciate the hate.

Speaking of hate.  This is Penn State week, which means…ALL OF THE HATE

If you were to look back over the last few years of game preview posts at MotSaG, I have provided most of the PSU Game Previews.  One of my simple pleasures in life is to pretty much hate everything revolving around Pennsylvania State University.  One of the most overrated college experiences ever.  I visited Penn State for the OSU game in Happy Valley in 1995.  Basically, Penn State is a college in the middle of a cornfield, which is protected by the small town that only exists because of the college.  We have a bunch of those in Ohio (Ohio Northern, Bluffton College, Denison, Kenyon College).  The only cultivated culture that exists (or existed) was the holier than thou attitude that JoePa could do no wrong, the child rapey culture (well documented elsewhere), and some good ice cream (it isn’t Jeni’s). From OSU fans/alumni to the OSU Marching Band, most of us have either heard or experienced some type of stupidity on full display at Penn State.  Not to say that us OSU peeps are above such shenanigans, but we never claimed to be angels.  This is the problem though, Penn State fans have always leaned on JoePa’s way of doing things as the right way and somehow was able to claim some sort of second-hand infallibility when things were going right.  When Uncle Jerry’s secret was unleashed, JoePa was no longer doing things right…now Penn State looks just like the rest of us…a big time college football factory.

Onto the game…

I dont get wrapped up in the X’s and O’s of this game, because it generally isnt a chess match.  It is normally a game of two teams trading haymakers until the final whistle.  There seems to only be one constant.  There will be a pick six.  It is really just a matter of who makes it and when does it occur in the game.

Currently, Penn State sits at 4-2 and is in sole possession of 3rd place in the Leaders Division.  Penn State is not eligible for post-season play this year, based on its recently reduced Sandusky Scandal penalties from the NCAA.  This year is really about the development of its young quarterback Christian Hackenberg, who was able to win the starting job and has been able to pick up the college game very quickly, as a true freshman.  He is no Anthony Morelli and am pretty sure Penn State fans are ok with that statement.  Penn State’s wins have come at the expense of Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, and Michigan (snatching defeat from the jaws of victory).  Its two losses have come at the hands of Indiana, which almost “hung a half-hundred on ’em” and #23 UCF.

Looking at those wins and losses, Penn State has its work cut out for it this Saturday evening in Columbus.

What to expect when Penn State has the ball:

Penn State will leverage a balanced pro-style attack with Belton and Zwinak providing a nice 1-2 punch at the tailback position, which is intended to open up the play-action game for Hackenberg.  Zwinak is a bull at 6’1″ 240 (very similar build to El Guapo) and the leading rusher for the team by a little over 20 yards (393 @ 4.3 avg/carry).  He has rushing 8TDs (of Penn State’s 13 total rushing TDs for the year).  Hackenberg is going to be a good one (Cmp% 58.4; 11 TDs; 6 INTs), but he is still a youngster with a lot to learn.  That being said, one thing to prepare yourself for in this game will be the broadcast team gushing over this kid.  A lot of it is justified, but just like every other Primetime ABC game, you’ll want to jab a pencil in your ear before halftime or try to find the radio comforts of the announcing “white noise” that is Paul Keels.  If PSU has any success, the ABC crew will be about shoulder deep in Hackenberg’s anal orifice by halftime.

Hackenberg’s main target will be Allen Robinson.  This guy is a stud.  He has 43 catches for 705 yards and 5 TDs.  Hopefully, Bradley Roby is well-rested after last week’s ejection.  The receiver with the second most catches on the year for Penn State (Brandon Felder) has 22 catches.  Hackenberg will definitely try to challenge Roby.  You would like to think that Roby would be up to the challenge.  Boy, I hope he is up for it, because Robinson will eat his lunch otherwise.  This game should be a nice little challenge for the secondary, which has been more than leaky this season on multiple occasions.

From an Ohio State perspective, it will be the typical focus on stopping the run, which means that the DBs will most likely play deeper in coverage to ensure that the over the top passes are not an option if/when we drop a safety into the box.  This will probably lead to those 5-7 yards passes (with a sprinkle of deeper balls to Robinson) from the Iowa game that were driving everyone crazy.  Ohio State should be able to handle the Penn State rushing attack, which will likely lessen the effectiveness of the play-action.  We always want Fickell and Co. to set Shazier free to blitz like a wild man, but it wouldnt surprise me if OSU doesnt blitz very much and plays conservative to stop the run and make Hackenberg beat them.  I also keep hoping that we will get pressure from the front four without blitzing (yays).

What to expect when OSU has the ball:

I’d expect a lot of the same as the other seven games this year.  Read-Option Penn State to death with a steady dose of Hyde and the occasional Braxton run or play-action pass.  Braxton looks completely healthy and is eluding people to buy more time with greater ease now then at the beginning of the season.  He was a machine in the against Iowa and the passing game looked quite solid.  I expect this continue in the friendly confines of the Horsehoe and will hopefully see more of Dontre Wilson out of the backfield on screens and swing passes.

Penn State is currently 17th in Total Defense in the NCAA giving 486 and 507 yards in its losses to Indiana and UCF respectively.  I just dont see OSU being stopped by the Penn State defense.  They may slow it down during parts of the game, but OSU should be able to leverage all of its weapons in the Shoe on Saturday night.

Prediction:

OSU 52
Penn State 24

Pick Six Prediction:

CJ Barnett (2nd Qtr)

Penn State

Christian Hackenberg, #14 Quarterback-  Hackenberg was the gem of Bill O’Brien’s first recruiting class as head coach of Penn State.  Hackenberg was the number one ranked pocket passer according to 247Sports, and he has not disappointed the Nittany Lion coaching staff with his progress.  So far this season Hackenberg’s stat line reads: 58.3% completion, 11 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and he’s averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.  While these numbers are nothing like Florida State phenom Jameis Winston, Hackenberg has shown glimpses this year of being the superstar QB he was touted to be out of high school.  Hackenberg is a smart kid with a big arm and some mobility.  His downfall comes with his accuracy.  His last three starts against Kenn State, Indiana, and Michigan, Hackenberg has had an average completion percentage of 47.9%.    Those performances would indicate the normal growing pains for a true freshman quarterback.  However, after riding the momentum of a great 4th quarter drive against the team up north, and given a bye week to prepare, Hackenberg may start to turn the corner and become the elite passer he was touted to be.  Look out for this kid, he is going to special.

Allen Robinson, #8 Wide Receiver-  Robinson is the favorite target of the true freshman quarterback.  He has hauled in 43 receptions (21 more than the second leading receiver), for 705 yards and 5 touchdowns so far this season.  Robinson is a big, imposing wide receiver measuring 6’3 210 pounds.  However, don’t let Robinson’s height and weight fool you, the kid has got some speed on him as well.  He’s a very good route runner with great hands, and an ability to go up and get the ball.  Shutting down Robinson will be vital for the Ohio State secondary.  Robinson moves all over the field.  He’ll receive tunnel screens and take them the distance, he can also beat press coverage on the outside.  He’s an NFL talent and can single handily destroy a secondary.  Just look at what he did against Syracuse below.

Bill Belton, #1 Running Back-  While Zach Zwinack is the workhorse for the Nittany Lions run game, Belton is the kid Buckeye fans should look out for.  The junior running back is a slashing type of running back.  He has a quick first step, and can make defenders miss in space.  He is a also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield.  That will be a large concern for the Buckeye linebackers who may have to cover him in space.  Belton can beat a defense multiple ways.  He is averaging a team best 5.7 yards per carry, and has recorded 5 total touchdowns so far this season.  He also was responsible for scoring the game winning touchdown against Michigan.  Belton is no where near the caliber of running backs such as Melvin Gordon or Mark Weisman, but his versatility makes him a threat to any defense.

Ohio State

Bradley Roby–  Prior to Roby’s ejection from last weeks game, it looked like Roby was starting to get back to his old ways.  He was flying around the field, looking to hit anything that moved.  He finally looked like he stopped thinking and decided to go play football.  I think the bye week did Roby some good.  His year of facing good to great wide receivers does not get any easier as this weekend Robinson rolls in to town.  Robinson will be one of Roby’s toughest tests.  As stated above Robinson can hit a defense from anywhere on the field, so it will be important for Roby to be on his game.  If the front seven can take care of the run game without any extra reliance on Roby then it will take a lot of pressure off of him and allow him to focus on shutting down Robinson.  Roby’s play style and athleticism match up very well against Robinson.  Roby has extremely smooth hips, he is very very good in press coverage, and as long as he stays disciplined on the double moves, Roby can keep up with Robinson speed wise.  This will be the match-up to watch all night long as these two All Big Ten players battle it out.

Braxton Miller–  If Braxton watched the Penn State game against the team up north, then he should be salivating.  Penn State struggled to contain Devin Gardner as Gardner rushed for 121 yards, and threw for another 240 yards.  Not only that, but Braxton had his way last year with this Penn State defense, and this years Nittany Lion defense is a shell of what is was last year.  Miller, and the offense, looked to be getting in to rhythm against Iowa, and I expect them to be full speed this Saturday night under the lights.  His knee looks good to go, and his arm/mechanics looked fantastic.  As long as Herman does not continually attempt to force the issue against Penn State, and instead take what the defense gives them, I would expect Braxton to have a huge night through the air and on the ground.

Ryan Shazier–  Shazier has had a quietly productive All-American season so far.  He has recorded 56 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 sack so far in the 2013 campaign.  Last year against Penn State Shazier had a huge game as he had an interception return for touchdown along with:  8 tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble.  He will be important in the pass game as Penn State is willing to utilize the tight ends, and after seeing the amount of success Iowa had against OSU linebackers doing that, Shazier should expect to see some action his way.  If not he will somehow, some way, find a way to affect the game and have his nose in the backfield of Penn State.

It seems to come up every year around this time: is Penn State really our rival? They sure think so, and it’s hard to blame them. We are the closest conference team to them geographically and our games tend to be competitive. The overall record between the two teams is only slightly in our favor.

But Buckeye fans have different views on the subject. Personally, I don’t believe in multiple rivals. Sure, you could argue that every team in your conference is technically a rival, and that’s true in a sense. But to me, there’s more to a rivalry than just wanting to win a game. There’s a real and pure hate that transcends all other football allegiance.

I can sum it up for you pretty easily: a couple weeks ago, on the Saturday of Ohio State’s bye week, a friend had a party, attended primarily by Buckeye fans. Since there was no game we needed to watch, we would, every once in a while, check in on scores and keep each other updated. As the Penn State/Michigan game proceeded, it became apparent that the Wolverines might suffer their first loss of the season. We gathered around the TV, the crowd growing larger with each overtime. It was determined that my wife was bad luck and she banned herself from the room. We were cheering as if it were our own team on the field.

And we were cheering for Penn State.

Because Michigan is our rival and they always will be. We will always get at least a little bit of joy when they lose and be a little disappointed when they win. This week we’ll be cheering against Penn State, but it will not be with the same abject disdain as we’ll have on November 30th.

While some of these rankings can be fluid, here is how I would currently place Big Ten teams in terms of their “rivalry” with Ohio State:

The Hated

The true rival, this series is filled with history and hate. It bleeds over into not only other sports but also personal relationships.

Michigan, obviously

Competitive Rivalries

Based primarily on recent success, these series are more about the game itself than anything else. Sometimes the presence of a particular coach or player can elevate a team to this category. Often bleed over into sports, but not typically beyond that.

Wisconsin
Penn State

Sibling Rivalries

Sometimes competitive, but usually still one-sided. Marked by mutual respect. Mostly, we just don’t want to lose to these teams, but have nothing else against them.

Michigan State
Iowa
Northwestern
Nebraska, probably (too early to tell)

Weird Neighbors

Not generally competitive, but sometimes spring a surprise upset or play better than expected. Beating these teams is not overly exciting, but losing to them is very damaging.

Illinois
Indiana
Minnesota
Purdue

As always, presented without comment. (Now with 4th Down Conversions!)

Stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

1.) Ohio State (7-0)- Beat Iowa 34-24. Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde were unstoppable. The Defense was not ready for the offense Iowa used early on with 3 TEs. They made adjustments and ended up pulling away for a big Homecoming win.

2.) Michigan State (6-1)- Beat Purdue 14-0. They held Purdue to 226 yards and 0 points. The problem is they were barely better on offense. Mustering a pathetic 294 yards and 14 points against a horrible Purdue.

3.) Wisconsin (5-2)- Beat Illinois 56-32. That run game they have is top notch. The defense is pretty great as well. They are well coached and well prepared. They are a referee bad call from 6-1.

4.) Nebraska (5-1)- Nebraska was on a BYE this last weekend.

5.) Penn State (4-2)- Penn State was on a BYE this last weekend.

6.) Michigan (6-1)- Beat Indiana 63-47. When Devin Gardner is on he is really good. When he is off he is really bad. He is just too inconsistent right now. That defense is not very good this year which is the biggest surprise to me.

7.) Minnesota (5-2)- Beat Northwestern 20-17. Coach Jerry Kill made an emotional halftime speech that fired up the Gophers and helped them secure a big win over a previously ranked Wildcat team.

8.) Iowa (4-3)- Lost to Ohio State 34-24. Iowa had a great game plan and led early in this game. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes OSU made adjustments and pulled away to win.

9.) Indiana (3-4)- Lost to Michigan 63-47. The Indiana defense is just flat pathetic. Their offense keeps them in games and even wins them games. They were within 2 points with just a few mins left in this Michigan game before falling apart in the end.

10.) Northwestern (4-3)- Lost to Minnesota 20-17. The Wildcats are in a free fall since their emotional loss to Ohio State 3 weeks ago. They better right the ship fast before their season is lost.

11.) Illinois (3-3)- Lost to Wisconsin 56-32. Illinois just couldn’t stop the Wisconsin Offense. The Illini are better than they were last year for sure. They are going to need to work hard to get bowl eligible.

12.) Purdue (1-6)- Lost to Michigan State 14-0. Purdue had a good defensive showing although they were playing an awful offense. Their season is lost and they will need to rebuild going forward.