Archives for October 2012

Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Are there any Buckeye historians out there who could name the starting free safety for John Cooper’s 1989-1990 Buckeye teams? Well, the answer to that question is Nebraska head coach, Bo Pelini, and he will be bringing his 21st ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers to the Horseshoe this Saturday.

There are a couple of similarities between the two teams; both teams are coming off of big conference wins, both teams love to run the ball (and they do it effectively,) both quarterbacks are much improved since last year, and both defenses started off a bit slower than usual.

This game will be under the lights, on national television, and in front of 102,329 fans wearing only scarlet. It should be a dandy.

When Nebraska has the ball:

Taylor Martinez comes into this game much improved compared to years past. Martinez boasts an 11-1 touchdown to interception ratio and he is completing 68% of his passes. He still reminds fans that he is a dual threat quarterback, rushing for 298 yards in four games. As noted on ABC during the Wisconsin game, Martinez’s release is night and day compared to last year. Last year he was shot putting the ball and throwing off of his back foot. After cleaning up his mechanics in the off season, Martinez looks much more like a real FBS quarterback and it has showed in the first four games this season. When breaking down the statistics, it is clear that even though Martinez is completing 68% of his passes, he is only completing 53% (19-36) on third down. An even more alarming statistic is that Martinez is completing a paltry 21% (3-14) of his throws in the fourth quarter. Based off of this, the Buckeyes need to get out to a 10+ point lead going into the fourth and make Martinez beat them with his arm.

Then

Now

 

Besides Martinez, the ‘Huskers bolster a two-headed monster in the backfield with sophomore Ameer Abdullah and the always reliable Rex Burkhead. Abdullah is more of the speedster as he also returns punts and kick returns, and he is very shifty. He has rushed for 486 yards on 79 carries, averaging out to 6 yards per carry. Burkhead, as Buckeye fans are familiar with, is more of the downhill, classic B1G running back. Burkhead missed two games this year (one was their loss versus UCLA,) and currently has 273 yards on only 29 carries. Both can catch the ball out of the backfield and Martinez checks down to them constantly. Ball security is a huge issue for the Cornhuskers, the have put the ball on the ground 15 times in four games and lead the nation in lost fumbles at 9. Defensive Coordinator Luke Fickell has to be preaching to his defense to strip the ball, as a turnover could change the momentum of the game.

For receivers, Kenny Bell is the player that needs to be watched. Bell has big play ability and he is Martinez’s primary down field target. Quincy Enunwa is more of the possession receiver but he can also catch the defense napping for a big play. The tight end Kyler Reed is Martinez’s third option, but he is not an elite pass catching tight end. Bradley Roby and Travis Howard should have their way with the ‘Huskers good, but not great receiving corps.

Ultimately, as it usually does, the game will come down to the trenches. Will Nebraska’s offensive line be able to open up holes against the great Ohio State defensive line that shut down Le’Veon Bell last weekend? Will they be able to give Taylor Martinez enough time to step up into the pocket and throw? If Simon, Hankins and the rest of the silver bullets can pressure Martinez, look for him to revert to his old ways and throw off of his back foot, resulting in turnovers. After sending Buckeye fans into a cold sweat the first three games, the defense returned to their old ways last week against Sparty and hopefully that will continue this week. As stated, if the Buckeyes can take a lead into the fourth quarter, one should love their chances to close the game out.

When the Buckeyes have the ball:

Last year, the Buckeyes came out of the gate firing on all cylinders. They lead Nebraska 27-6 in the 3rd quarter before a Braxton Miller fumble and it all fell down hill from there. The ‘Huskers completed their biggest comeback in school history, defeating the Buckeyes 34-27. Carlos Hyde had a big game, rushing for 104 yards on 13 carries and he also added two touchdowns.

Hyde will have to shoulder the load again with Jordan Hall out with a slight PCL tear, leaving him doubtful for Saturday night. It has been a rough year medically for the Buckeye backfield, as Meyer has not been able to utilize both of his running backs at full strength all season. It would be great to see some of the wrinkles that Meyer had in mind in the preseason using both a slasher (Hall,) and an in-between the tackles runner (Hyde,) next to Miller.

When looking through offenses that the ‘Huskers defense has played against this season, one could compare UCLA’s to Ohio State’s spread and running tendencies. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley was able to rack up a lot of passing yardage by executing quick passes and letting his receivers make plays after the catch. Hundley threw for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns on the day. Nebraska’s tackling was very poor in that game, which led to an abundance of big plays at the Rose Bowl. UCLA running back Johnathan Franklin rushed for 217 yards on 26 carries. Miller and Hyde will be able to run on a Nebraska defense that seemed to have massive trouble with the zone read that Miller runs extremely well. Their tackling on the perimeter is very poor and UCLA got virtually anything they wanted when rushing to the outside. Nebraska also ran a lot of man to man coverage and UCLA exploited this by motioning in and out of the backfield on the majority of their plays. The Bruin’s motioning left the Nebraska defense vulnerable, as they were constantly running around and could not get set before the snap.

Meyer has to be salivating when watching the UCLA film and has to be expecting a big day in the option game. Also, look for Philly Brown to make plays after the catch and expect him to be motioning in and out of the backfield in the first quarter to see if Bo Pelini has adjusted since the UCLA game. It will also be important to get into 3rd and short situations, as the ‘Huskers defense has been pretty good at getting off of the field on 3rd down. They have  limited opponents to a 35% conversion rate on 3rd  down.

Prediction:

Ohio State takes advantage of a sloppy tackling secondary and they put points on the board early. Miller and Hyde both rush for over 100 yards as the crowd is in it from kickoff. The improving Buckeye defense forces a few turnovers and makes Taylor Martinez beat them. He is not successful.

Ohio State 31 Nebraska 20

Johnathan Hankins looks to pressure Taylor Martinez from the first snap

 

 

 

Nebraska: By The Numbers

As always, presented without comment.

Statistically Speaking
Ohio State
Value (Rank)
Value (Rank)
Nebraska
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 224.2 (21) 152.8 (64) Rushing Defense (ypg) Ohio State
Passing Offense (ypg) 194.0 (101) 186.8 (27) Passing Defense (ypg) Nebraska+
Pass Efficiency 140.7 (49) 110.7 (28) Pass Efficiency Defense Push
Total Offense (ypg) 418.2 (54) 340.8 (36) Total Defense (ypg) Push
Scoring Offense (ppg) 33.6 (44) 20.6 (37) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 100.8 (20) 305.8 (5) Rushing Offense (ypg) Push
Passing Defense (ypg) 275.6 (98) 215.6 (78) Passing Offense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency Defense 114.1 (35) 167.6 (11) Pass Efficiency Offense Push
Total Defense (ypg) 376.4 (59) 521.4 (13) Total Offense (ypg) Nebraska
Scoring Defense (ppg) 17.0 (25) 44.8 (10) Scoring Offense (ppg) Push
Turnover margin +0.40 (46) -0.60 (89) Turnover margin Ohio State
Penalty Yards/game 65.0 (90) 59.6 (81) Penalty Yards/game Push
Sacks (/game) 2.40 (42) 1.60 (53) Sacks Allowed (/game) Push
Sacks Allowed (/game) 1.40 (40) 3.80 (8) Sacks (/game) Nebraska
3rd Down Conv. (%) 43.3 (50) 35.0 (40) 3rd Down Conv. Def (%) Push
3rd Down Conv. Def (%) 35.4 (42) 52.4 (13) 3rd Down Conv. (%) Nebraska
Redzone Offense (%) 89.5 (27) 62.5 (10) Redzone Defense (%) Push
Redzone Defense (%) 66.7 (13) 84.0 (57) Redzone Offense (%) Ohio State
 Legend
  Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
  Difference >25 in National Rank = Ohio State
  Difference >50 in National Rank = Ohio State+
  Difference >75 in National Rank = Ohio State++
  Differences >100 in National Rank = Ohio State+++

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Highlight Package

The Buckeyes Add TCU

It was just announced that the Buckeyes have added a home and home series with the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian University for 2018 and 2019. Ohio State will travel to Forth Worth, Texas, then welcome TCU to Columbus the following year. Initially I thought that they would play at Jerry’s World but TCU was just given a 164 million dollar renovation to Amon G. Carter Stadium. Although it is a couple of years away, the Buckeyes also have Cincinnati in 2018 and would most likely be looking for another quality opponent in 2019 to fill out their schedule.

The Ohio State- Big12 battles will continue as fans remember the epic home and home split between Vince Young’s eventual national champion Texas squad in 2005 and then Colt McCoy’s 2006 team. Flash forward, the Buckeyes have a home and home series with Oklahoma in 2016 and 2017 that will hopefully have national title implications. It will be an exciting next couple of years to see who Urban Meyer and the athletic department will schedule.

Will a major SEC team book their trip to Columbus soon? I hope so.

2013 OSU recruit stats week 6

All the guys now are at the mid point in their senior seasons. Some will be at OSU in 2 months. How crazy is that?

Jalin Marshall– His team Middletown Middies lost 27-26 loss to Cincinnati Oak Hills. Jalin rushed 18 times for 153 yards with 2 TDs and was 3 of 8 for 81 yards.
Eli Woodard His team Eastern enjoyed a 28-21 win over Rancocas Valley. Eli had a blocked FG to help set up the winning drive.
Cam Burrows His team Trotwood-Madison beat Piqua 42-0. Cam was part of a total defensive effort that kept Piqua scoreless for the entire game.
Joey Bosa– His team St. Thomas Aquinas won 65-20 over Hollywood McArthur. Bosa helped lead a good defensive effort with lots of pressure.
Marcus Baugh His team John W North beat Vista Del Lago 51-6. Couldnt find any stats sorry.
Evan Lisle His team Centerville beat Kettering Fairmont 17-13. As an O-lineman he helped his team gut out a tough win.
Ezekiel Elliott His team John Burroughs HS beat Westminster Christian 33-7. He rushed 20 times for 238 yards scoring 2 TDs.
Billy Price His team Austintown Fitch beat East 56-7. His team moved to 6-0 on the year.
Jayme Thompson His team Toledo Central Catholic beat Fremont Ross 42-21. He had 8 tackles and 2 Forced Fumbles.
J T Barrett- His team Rider beat Trophy Club Byron Nelson 50-14. He completed 8 of 12 passes for 162 yards and a TD and ran 22 times for 130 yards and 2 more TDs.
Michael Hill His team Pendleton lost 20-10 to Crescent. His team continues their up and down season.
Taivon Jacobs His team Suitland beat Springdale Flowers 26-14. Taivon had 170 yards and 2 TDs.
Darron Lee His team New Albany beat Delaware 26-13. From his twitter acct. Darron Lee ‏@DLeeMG8
Played like piss. Got the W tho.
Tracy Sprinkle His team Elyria beat Valley Forge 49-20. Tracy had 8 tacles and 1 sack and 3 TFL. He also had 1 pass deflected and 3 QB hurries.
Tim Gardner His team Lawrence Central enjoyed a 47-6 win over Southport. Tim helped his team win with excellent blocking all game long.
Johnny Townsend His team Boone suffered a 29-28 loss to Wekiva. No punting stats could be found.
Tyquan Lewis– His team Tarboro HS beat Snow Hill Greene Central 47-16. Tyquan had 2 sacks in the win.

I think what OSU fans will like most about this class is the athletes it has in it. Speed and agility is dominant in all of them. There is a lot to like about what OSU and Coach Meyer and his staff have done and with maybe 5 spots left to go it will be great to see how they finish off this already very impressive class.

B1G Power Rankings: Fourth Edition

The two major games of last weekend, Ohio State at Michigan State and Wisconsin at Nebraska turned out to be two, very competitive games. The top four remained the same but last weekend showed some potential contenders (Iowa) and a real pretender (Minnesota.) Look for Ohio State and Penn State to play spoiler as the weeks go on and see if Michigan State and Wisconsin can bounce back after tough losses.

1. Ohio State (5-0)- Maybe conference play woke the silver bullets up as they held Le’Veon Bell in check.  Now, the Buckeyes welcome Nebraska into Columbus for another big time conference showdown.
2. Northwestern (5-0)- Northwestern broke into the top 25 this week (#24) after their 44-29 victory over Indiana. They are off this weekend but face a tough test at Happy Valley in two weeks.
3. Nebraska (4-1)- Wearing a pretty snazzy alternate jersey, the Cornhuskers faced two 17 point deficits versus Wisconsin on Saturday. The ‘Huskers prevailed behind a great performance by a much improved Taylor Martinez. They’ll try to ride the momentum into the ‘Shoe this weekend.
4. Purdue (3-1)- The Boilermakers survived a shootout versus the Thundering Hurd of Marshall and face a big test this weekend against Denard Robinson and the Wolverines.
5. Michigan (2-2)- Coming off of a bye week, TTUN travels to Purdue in a game to see if either team is legitimate.
6. Michigan State (3-2)- Sparty lost another game at home but, they should bounce back against Indiana this week to notch their first conference win.
7. Penn State (3-2)- Defeating Illinois does not get Penn State brownie points, but their offense continues to improve each and every week under Head Coach Bill O’Brien.
8. Iowa (3-2)- Iowa woke up at just the right time to defeat an undefeated and overrated Minnesota team. They have an extra week to prepare before heading off to East Lansing for a real test.
9. Wisconsin (3-2)- Wisconsin jumped off to a fast start against Nebraska on national television, but could not seal the deal. Their offense should get back on track versus Illinois this week.
10. Minnesota (4-1)- Minnesota had a chance to put themselves on the B1G map, but they got embarrassed by a sputtering Iowa Hawkeye team. Now, there just back to being Minnesota.
11. Indiana (2-2)- After starting 2-0, the Hoosiers are coming off back to back losses and now have to travel to an angry Michigan State team. Awful spot for Indiana here.
12. Illinois (2-3)- Illinois’ defense is horrid as they have allowed 139 points to three FBS opponents. Expect the same as they travel to Wisconsin, who is coming off of a tough loss.

Compare with last week and feel free to discuss…

 

OSU vs UAB Highlight Package

The Spread, Week Six: Fraudstomp

It’s time for the annual shattering of souls known as the Fraud List. I have painstakingly examined every* remaining unbeaten team to identify the handful who will inevitably crash and burn and finish the season with five or more losses. To prove that I’m not some sick sadist, I am writing this while listening to Frogstomp, the debut album from Silverchair, the imitation Australian Pearl Jam. See, I’m a sick sado-masochist.

*Mid-majors are ineligible for this list, as are teams who have played fewer than four games.

This year, I’m tightening up the list and giving you a top six that will not be broken down any further. All of these teams have a strong chance of losing five games this year. Any eligible unbeaten team not on this list should finish with no more than four losses. The list is in order of most-t0-least fraudy.

1. Louisville (5-0)

The Cardinals’ last three wins were by a touchdown or less and their five opponents have a combined record of 5-19 so far. Three of those wins belong to North Carolina.

2. TCU (4-0)

Half of the Big 12 is undefeated right now, but only the Horned Frogs make the list. TCU’s closest win was by 8 points, but none of their four opponents has a winning record.

3. Northwestern (5-0)

As much I would like Seth Meyers to be happy, things do not look good for the Wildcats. The best team they’ve played is Indiana and that pretty much says it all. Playing in a weak and unpredictable Big Ten helps (it kept Ohio State off this list), but it might not be enough.

4. Rutgers (4-0)

I don’t know if I really think the Big East will produce two frauds this year, but Rutgers’ numbers are atrocious and leaving them off would have been inexcusable. They’ve played one team with a winning record and that was Howard, who might actually just be a dude named Howard.

5. Mississippi State (4-0)

6. South Carolina (5-0)

No list of anything is complete without a couple of SEC teams, so here you go. There are a half-dozen unbeatens in The World’s Greatest Conference, but these two had some separation from the others. Mississippi State has been unremarkable against some pretty lousy teams and it says something when the other five unbeatens in your conference are in the top 10 and you’re #20. It says you suck is what it says. The Gamecocks are here because they are going to lose their next four games.

In the end, only three or four of these teams will end up as true frauds with five or more losses. If I had to guess who escapes that fate, I’d say Northwestern and one of the Big East teams. If I had to pick just one that will drop five for sure, it would be TCU.

So how about you? I go by the numbers my system gives me with a little gut feeling thrown in, but you can pick any unbeaten teams out there. Who loses five or more this year?

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Recap

Ohio State 17

Michigan State 16

 

Urban Meyer hugged his players and assistant coaches as they left the field in victory after a hotly contested Big Ten game Saturday afternoon. While at times it didn’t look pretty, the Buckeyes prevailed vs. a quality opponent on the road. Once again Ohio State needed Braxton Miller to be the focal point of the offense and he came through despite 3 turnovers in MSU territory.

Miller ran wild vs. the best defense in the Big Ten and the 6th best defense in the entire country. He had 134 yards rushing and 179 yards passing and the deciding touchdown to Devin Smith. Miller was battered and bruised all day vs. an aggressive MSU defense that typically doesn’t like to play nice. Miller had his head rocked into a metal case on the sideline in the 1st quarter than lead to Kenny Guiton coming in to finish the drive for a TD thanks to a Jordan Hall dive across the goal line to make it 7-0.

Miller also looked like he hyper-extended his knee in the 4th quarter as he surrendered the ball for his 3rd turnover in the game. While I absolutely love Miller, he cannot simply drop the ball due to pain. The ball wasn’t forced out by a defender or touched by any other player…Miller simply dropped the ball on his own and it could have been disaster for OSU.

Positives:

  • The Ohio State offensive line was for much of the game dominant vs. an elite defensive front. Last year OSU gave up 9 sacks and had 178 total yards and 35 yards rushing. This year OSU amassed. 383 total yards and 204 yards rushing.
  • Braxton Miller…once again was the best player on the field. He out rushed Le’veon Bell by over 80 yards and threw the game winner. Another gutsy performance. Urban Meyer called Miller a family member after the game.
  • Carlos Hyde. Hyde had multiple 1st down runs on the final drive to run out the clock. He ran with power AND vision. Glad to have him back.
  • The defense stepped up big time vs Bell. The defensive front was outstanding, lead by Jonathan Hankins who is proving he could be an early NFL pick come April.
  • Linebackers stepped up finally. Sabino had his best game of the year and Shazier had some key stops as well. This was the best we have seen the OSU defense play thus far.
  • Seeing Danonio’s smug face after his team lost.

 

What To Work On:

  • File the under “no kidding” but Miller cannot turn the ball over 3 times. He potentially wiped away points on three separate drives. Luckily OSU won. He had issues with fumbling to start the season last year, let’s hope this doesn’t become an issue.
  • Tackling is still an issue. The lone MSU TD was a sloppy slap fest at the ball as the MSU tailback took it in from 29 out. OSU has caused very, very few fumbles and missed about a million tackles. Just tackle the guy and play team defense. That play was embarrassing.
  • What is going on with Jake Stoneburner? He was a player that was overly hyped coming into this season. We all heard he would be the next Aaron Hernandez. So far he hasn’t done all that much. Through 5 games he has 7 catches for 92 yards. Last year at the same time he had 10 catches for over 100 yards and last year he missed a game as well. What is going on with the tightened production?

All in all it was an outstanding win that put the Buckeyes in the drivers seat in their division. It will be difficult for OSU to get up for every game like they did vs. MSU and must keep the train rolling vs. Nebraska at the Shoe this Saturday.

 

 

Blogpoll – Week 5

On the cusp by Conference.

ACC – Miami Fl. and Duke
B12 – Texas Tech
Big East – None
B1G – Purdue and Minnesota
Conf . USA- None
Independant – None
MAC – None
Mtn. West – None
Pac 12 – Stanford, Az. St., and UCLA
SEC – Texas A&M
Subelt – None
WAC – La Tech and UTSA

The longer the season goes the more difficult it becomes to do these polls. Each and every week now things fluctuate as teams win and lose. Teams will start playing tougher competition and proving either they belong or don’t in the top 25.

Time for me to explain myself again. I want to start with the NON-BCS conference teams first. The thing about them is it is so hard for them to get ranked unless they play and beat really good BCS AQ schools. The only other way to do it is to win every game like Ohio has. As the season progresses though you may see a team like Boise St. join the rankings again but it will depend on them winning out and other teams losing two or more games. Same with a lot of other teams that aren’t AQ schools.

Top team right now is surely Alabama. no? They aren’t very exciting but top to bottom they are the best team by a mile this year. That’s not to say they can’t or won’t lose a game or even two (it is college football and that will happen eventually).

Who is the next best team right now is a toss up. It could really be any of the undefeated teams left as all of them have glaring weaknesses and strengths. As the season progresses eventually things will play out until then it is all a guessing game and a mess.

Thoughts?