Archives for October 2012

As always, presented without comment.

Stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

Take a deep breath, everyone. Calm down.

There is a lot of overanalysis going on regarding OSU’s 52-49 edging of lowly Indiana. Most of it is being aimed at the defense. Superficially, this seems appropriate – OSU fans should never believe it acceptable to give up 49 points to Indiana.

But the problem with focusing on that single point is that it involves overanalyzing some not-so-significant issues while ignoring more pressing ones.

What is being called a “defensive breakdown” was, in reality, a series of aberrant, unlikely events that occurred over the final 2:25 that included more factors than just the defense (I’m raising an eyebrow at you, Special Teams).

Yet armchair analysts are trying to frame the team’s struggles this season on a few minutes of low-likelihood garbage-time occurrances.

Refresh your memories to the end of the fourth quarter: After 58 minutes, OSU had hung 52 points on the Hoosiers, and given up 34, which is precisely what Indiana averages per game this year. The game was completely in-hand, and both teams had assumed a garbage-time mindset. OSU was sending in lots of young players, and Indiana pulled its QB to give the freshman some experience. All were waiting for a very long day to be over.

But then the following unbelievable-never-will-occur-again-in-CFB-history-sequence-of-events occurred:

1. Indiana converted on a 4th and 5
2. The officials enforced a phantom 15-yard penalty
3. The officials enforced another phantom 12-yard penalty
4. OSU defense gives up a TD
5. Indiana attempts an onside kick
6. OSU’s special teams fail to recover the kick; it goes out of bounds, drawing a flag from the officials
7. The officials confer, pick up the flag, and controversially decide that Indiana recovered the onside kick legally (replays seemed to show otherwise)
8. OSU’s defense stops the Hoosiers on the ensuing drive for a 4th and 10
9. The officials enforce a controverisal offsides penalty on Hankins, giving Indiana yet another chance
10. OSU defense gives up a TD and 2 point conversion
11. Indiana attempts another on-side kick; fails

In the above list, please review and see how many times the defense is actually mentioned. Yes, they gave up the TDs, but in at least one of those cases, those came after actually stopping Indiana. Only some questionable officiating and very unusual circumstances kept the OSU defense on the field.

It’s also worth noting the context – at well over four hours, this was (unofficially so far) the longest game in OSU history. The team had spent the day in Indianapolis and driven to the stadium for a late start. The game went exceedingly long. It was after midnight, they were exhausted, they were in garbage-time mode, and yes, they had become complacent.

I guess the above comes off as if I’m white-knighting the Silver Bullets. Maybe I am a little. I just think it’s a bit unfair, given all the circumstances, to generalize an entire “character” for this defense based on 2 minutes of a lot of weird and aberrant events that are likely to never happen in conjunction with each other again.

Does the defense need to improve? Absolutely. I completely agree with the notion that this is the weakest defense OSU has fielded in at least the past decade or two, particularly in the linebacker corps. Injuries have decimated the veterans, and OSU is simply not that deep this year.

The Biggest Problem
Would we view things differently if OSU had beaten Indiana 55-32? Well, it was the special teams, not the defense, that caused it to be 52-49. For this game, a blocked punt, missed FG, and missed onside kick were responsible for at least a 17-point-swing in the final score.

Yes, OSU blocked a punt as well on Saturday, but the special teams don’t get to use that to avoid criticism for their overall weak play this season. Fixing the issues on special teams will have a more prounounced impact on scoring ratios than what most people realize. Blocked punts, missed FGs, long returns, etc. are giving opponents touchdowns and short fields to play on, and that is making the defense’s job even harder.

The team is 7-0 going into a stretch of very winnable games. OSU is very likely going into Beaver Stadium at 8-0, and probably going to be hosting Michigan at 11-0. Say whatever you want about the Big 10’s down year, it has five teams nationally ranked in the top third of total offense – OSU, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan. If OSU holds even two or three of those teams to average or below average points, that’s a positive thing to say about the defense, not a negative one.

The defense needs to improve, and if OSU simply doesn’t have the personnel to pull it off, then Meyer will get players that can. It’s a fixable problem. Fortunately, OSU has the perfect opportunity to spend the year getting a lot of young players some valuable experience for next year’s title run.

The Buckeyes survived a scare versus Indiana and have problems on the defensive side of the ball. A few teams had a bye week, but the Badgers took control of the Leaders Division with their resounding win over Purdue. Sparty has continued to falter at home with their loss against Iowa and look to bounce back this weekend at Ann Arbor. Wisconsin, Iowa and Indiana have jumped up a few spots from last week while Sparty and Purdue have fallen.

1. Ohio State (7-0)- Plain and simple, the defense needs to improve if they want to go undefeated. It is inexcusable  to let up 49 points to Indiana but they should improve this weekend against a sputtering Purdue team.

2. Michigan (4-2)- Dennard Robinson had another great game, this time coming against the conference’s worst defense. Lets see how he does this weekend against a tough Spartan defense that has owned him the past couple of seasons.

3.  Penn State (4-2)- Penn State is a kicker’s meltdown away from being 5-1 on the season. I cannot say enough about Bill O’Brien and the job he has done over at Happy Valley.

4. Northwestern (6-1)- The Wildcats survived a scare from Minnesota and now get to prove their legitimacy against Nebraska. Lets see if they run on the ‘Huskers the same way that Wisconsin and Ohio State did.

5. Nebraska (4-2)- After getting beat down by the Buckeyes, Nebraska got the week off. They travel to Northwestern for a game with Legends Division implications.

6. Wisconsin (4-2)- Even though they lost to the Cornhuskers three weeks ago, it looks like that game woke their offense up. The Badgers are now in the drivers seat of the Leaders Division and it looks like they are a completely different squad that slept through the non-conference schedule. Also, congratulations to Montee Ball who passed Ron Dayne for first place in Big Ten history with 72 career touchdowns.

7. Iowa (4-2)- It looked like Iowa won the National Championship after their win at Michigan State. But a few weeks ago I had written Iowa off and after back to back wins the Hawkeyes are playing their best football. They welcome a hot Nittany Lions squad into town this weekend for a huge tilt.

8. Michigan State (3-3)- Sparty’s offense cannot score and it looks like Kirk Cousins was a greater loss than expected. Also, what has happened to the home field advantage at East Lansing? State travels to the Big House this weekend in hope of salvaging their season.

9. Indiana (2-4)- Although the Hoosiers have lost four straight, they have been competitive in all of their losses. Indiana’s offense can score with anyone and they look to take advantage with Navy and Illinois coming up next.

10. Purdue (3-3)- Purdue has fallen apart and looking at their results, they do not have a marquee win. It does not get any easier for the Boiler Makers though as they travel to Columbus to play against the buzz-saw that is the Buckeye offense.

11. Minnesota (4-2)- The Gophers remained competitive but fell at home to Northwestern. Scary moment for Coach Jerry Kill as he endured a post game seizure in the locker room, lets hope he recovers and gets back onto the sidelines soon. Maybe they can go into Camp Randall this weekend and get a win… But probably not.

12. Illinois (2-5)- The Illini are flat out horrible in all phases of the game. Enough said.

Compare to last week and feel free to discuss…

I need to start off with a disclaimer: I absolutely hate writing these kinds of posts. Whenever there is a controversial topic where both sides are passionate and stubborn it is nearly impossible to convince either side to be reasonable and have a discussion and not a fight.

Having said that, I want to tackle the issue of Ohio State’s defense and, in particular, Luke Fickell.

First lets start off with some facts.

Facts for 2012:

• Ohio State is 7-0
• The defense is giving up 24.6 PPG
• OSU is giving up 122 YPG on the ground
• OSU is giving up 277 YPG in the air
• Total defense is 399 YPG

Facts for 2011:

• Ohio State was 6-7
• The defense gave up 21.0 PPG
• OSU gave up 141 YPG on the ground
• OSU gave up 180 YPG in the air
• Total defense is 321 YPG

Now, for some of you, at the beginning of the year I heard a lot of people saying, “Coach Meyer better not FIRE Luke Fickell after he guided OSU through a 6-7 campaign and gained a lot of respect from fans and the media for helping guide OSU through a difficult time.” Fast forward ten months and OSU is now 7-0 and I am hearing a lot of fans screaming, “Coach Meyer better fire Luke Fickell.” WHAT?????

That alone might make my case. But if it pleases the court, I’d like to introduce some additional evidence for the jury.

Exhibit A – Last year, Luke didn’t call defensive plays and the defense was just as bad if not worse in some categories. Such as: in the seven losses, OSU gave up 25.5 PPG and in the seven wins this year OSU is giving up 24.6 PPG. Sounds like an improvement to me.

Exhibit B – OSU is running a completely new offense that is based on speeding things up and scoring as fast as possible. This strategy keeps the offense off the field a lot more and the defense on the field A LOT more. The more they are out there the more tired they get and more chances they have to make mistakes. Nine chances per game, to be exact. Last year, the defense was on the field for an average of 64 plays per game. Through the first seven games of this year, the defense is averaging 73 plays per game. A lot can happen in nine plays.

Exhibit C – OSU has lost a lot of talent to transfers and injuries. Of the last ten linebackers recruited, two are still with the team. TWO. We are decimated with injuries all over the defense to some of our key players. Some of those injured are still not 100% and are playing hurt. Every starting defensive back has missed time this year. We have had two of the three linebackers miss extended time. Half the defensive line has missed extended time.

Exhibit D – OSU has a serious depth issue and because of that they have to play a lot of freshmen who just aren’t ready to play at this level without making mistakes along the way.

Exhibit E – OSU is so depleted they have moved a fullback to linebacker and a defensive end to linebacker. Both of whom are seniors and have spent the previous three plus years playing at that position. That is a recipe for disaster.

Exhibit F – It is a time honored tradition for sports fans to blame the coaches when something goes bad. Maybe, just maybe, the players aren’t as good as we had all hoped. That’s not to say they can’t or won’t be great players but right now we have very few ELITE players on defense and those we have have been injured a lot.

Exhibit G – OSU has two defensive coordinators and a head coach and multiple defensive assistants. Somehow, Luke Fickell has become the scapegoat. If Coach Meyer thought Luke was the problem I am sure he would ask Coach Withers, who has had success calling defensive plays, to take over. Or any of the other defensive assistants. Truth is, he calls the plays and sometimes he calls bad ones. Sometimes the players just aren’t making the plays they need to.

Exhibit H – Coach Meyer and his staff will fix this problem and will do it by recruiting better defenders. They will put the best guys on the field and put them in a place to have success and if they fail they will replace them. That same theory will apply to the coaches as well.

What we have here folks is a perfect example of sports. There are very few “complete” teams, teams with great offenses, defenses, and coaching. Those teams are so rare and yet fans expect to have them every year for their teams. When it doesn’t happen some fans revolt and look for a scapegoat. Some fans blame the coaches. Some fans blame the players. Some fans blame the referees. In actuality there is enough blame to go around. So spread it around but make sure you have the facts and don’t blame blindly and be a lemming joining the masses in a good old fashioned rage-mob carrying pitchforks and torches.

Lastly, If I were to tell you two months ago OSU would be 7-0 right now and fans would be angry and wanting to see Luke Fickell fired, would you believe me?

After a slow week last week the guys picked up their game this week and put up some impressive numbers. Sadly a few guys were injured.

Jalin Marshall– His team Middletown Middies lost 27-14 loss to Lakota West. Jalin rushed for 165 yards and a TD and went 4 of 18 for 39 yards and another TD.
Eli Woodard– His team Eastern beat Clearvies 36-20. Clearview avoided Eli for most of the game.
Cam Burrows– His team Trotwood-Madison beat Troy 42-14. Cam was part of a total defensive effort that kept Troy to 56 passing yards and 1 TD in the air.
Joey Bosa– His team St. Thomas Aquinas beat South Broward 48-0. Bosa hhelped his team shut out the opponent.
Marcus Baugh– His team John W North beat Valley View 17-10. No stats were available.
Evan Lisle– His team Centerville suffered a 26-10 loss to Huber Heights Wayne. As an O-lineman he helped his team gain 160 total yards in the loss.
Ezekiel Elliott– His team John Burroughs HS enjoyed a 56-0 win over Clayton. He rushed 11 times for 87 yards and had 3 TDs in the shutout victory.
Billy Price– His team Austintown Fitch beat Marion Harding 68-7. Billy helped hold them to 107 passing yards.
Jayme Thompson– His team Toledo Central Catholic enjoyed a 49-21 win over Toledo St. John’s. He had 11 tackles and 2 pass break ups.
J T Barrett- His team Rider beat Lake Dallas 26-7. Unfortunately JT is out for the season with a knee injury.
Michael Hill– His team Pendleton enjoyed a 34-7 win over Carolina Academy. He had a fumble recovery. He also suffered a hand injury.
Taivon Jacobs– His team Suitland enjoyed a 46-6 win over High Point. Taivon 3 catches for 45 yards and 2 TDs.
Darron Lee– His team New Albany enjoyed a 17-6 victory over Big Walnut. Darron had 92 yards rushing.
Tracy Sprinkle– His team Elyria enjoyed a 49-13 win over Stow. Tracy had 6 tackles and 2 TFL and 1 sack and 3 QB hurries.
Tim Gardner– His team Lawrence Central enjoyed a 31-7 win over Bloomington North. Tim helped his team rush for 363 yards.
Johnny Townsend– His team Boone beat Ocoee 30-23. No punting stats could be found.
Tyquan Lewis– His team Tarboro HS enjoyed 43-22 win over Southwest Edgecombe. Tyquan helped hold them to 211 total yards.

Sad news for both JT Barrett and Michael Hill on their injuries. I am sure both will heal as fast as possible and be ready to join the team ASAP. OSU fans should be really excited about this recruiting class there is a ton of talent and speed in this group.

Deeper analysis is still to come, but a few items to consider in the meantime:

• The offense performed exactly as expected. While Braxton and Hyde are obviously getting the majority of the attention, the main reason OSU’s offense is clicking is due to the beastly play of the young line. Barring major injuries to the key players, it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see this level of production through at least 2013.
• Will the coaches go back to Jordan Hall once he returns from injury? The offense didn’t start clicking until the power rushing game became a factor with Hyde and Smith.
• Speaking of injuries, before we overanalze OSU’s defensive weakness, we should keep in mind how decimated they are by injuries. It goes beyond not having Williams, Sabino, or Klein tonight, among the others who are not playing. When your team has to use its fullback to play linebacker, your coaches are offically scraping the bottom of the barrel.
• That aside, kudos to Zach Boren for not only stepping in, but stepping up and doing his best. He’s been a selfless player for his entire career at OSU, and this should go a long way to setting a great example of leadership for the younger players.
• 4 dropped interceptions.
• Special teams continue to struggle. It is what it is. Don’t expect much improvement for the remainder of the season.
• We hereby nominate the officiating crew with the Helen Keller Trophy for the worst officiating since the 2007 Illinois game.
• Indiana has made one statement after another for the past two years. They have finally seen the light and invested heavily in their football program. They have good coaches, are getting good recruits, and have massively improved facilities. They deserve credit for this.
• Best wishes to Jerry Kill.

More to follow later.

Like chatting about the Buckeyes? Can you be positive for more than three plays at a time? Well, then this might not be the place for you. Or maybe it will be. You’ll just have to give it a try.