Michigan Week in FULL EFFECT

OSU FootballYes, I know we’re two days into Michigan week, but for reasons that will become clear later, I’m a little behind. Nevertheless, we’ve got a week’s worth of stuff for Michigan Week for our fellow Buckeye fans. We’ve left the painful (literally) memory of the Illinois in the past. We’ve all moved on and it’s time to look forward to bigger and better things, i.e. beating Michigan.

So here are some of the things we have lined up:

  • Ahhh, the memories. Each day this week we’ll look back at some images of past Ohio State/Michigan games. Unlike the poor fellows at the MZone, we don’t have to get into the way-back-machine and turn back the clock thirty years. We’ll just check in with last year’s game.
  • As much as it pains us, we’ll still do a performance review of the Illinois game. It will be quick and painless.
  • Tressnac may stop by for a visit.
  • We already looked and why UM will beat OSU (with a straight face, even!) Next we’ll be looking at why OSU will beat UM (duh).
  • We may even fit a blogpoll ballot in there somewhere.

Don’t go anywhere!

Memories…

Why OSU will lose to UM

OSU FootballAh! That time of year again, when we drink the Kool-Aid and list reasons why those pathetic children-of-siblings from that state up north might win this weekend’s matchup.

So sit back, relax, wrap your logic in a handkerchief and place it gently aside. Here are a few reasons why the criminally insane student-athletes from Ann Arbor might pull off the victory on Saturday:

  • OSU’s not running a true spread this year.** Michigan has actually played really well against teams that don’t have a mobile quarterback who uses the spread option.
  • Hart has been saving the last useful 10% of his gimpy leg for this game. I truly believe Hart would be willing to sacrifice his knee – and his future NFL career – for a victory against the Buckeyes.
  • Speaking of injuries, it’s clear that Carr has saved Henne and Hart for this game. Whether that translates into “healthy” or “slightly-less-unhealthy” remains to be seen. But Carr’s coaching decisions for the past month have been very OSU-centric; which is a departure from his behavior the past several years.
  • Henne/Hart/Long are 0-3 against their superiors from down south, and all have publicly stated that they returned this year specifically to beat Ohio State.
  • I realize that statistics do not necessarily predict a victory for UM this weekend, but an 0-4 stretch is pretty unlikely where the teams are 50/50 over a period of 60 years.
  • Folks like Mallet/Minor/Brown – who we should expect to get serious playing time – are not the same as their losery predecessors. They may actually be motivated to start a new tradition, one that involves not being spanked like red-haired stepchildren every year.
  • It’s probable that this is Carr’s final game at the Big House. At 6-6 against OSU, there’s no chance for a tie overall in the series. He either ends his career with a winning record against his rivals, or ends it with a losing one.
  • UM beat Illinois; Illinois beat OSU.
  • Big Ten officials are once again refusing to call any penalties against OSU opponents. They’ve even avoided following NCAA-stipulated rules that require review of plays resulting in change of possession, even when those plays affect the outcome of the game.
  • Speaking of penalties, if there’s one thing we’ve learned from UM football the past two seasons, it’s that Shawn Crable is allowed to do anything he wants and only get 15 yards for it, even if ejection is called for.
  • Hart’s leadership. He’s quite possibly the most cantankerous player in college football, but you’d be lying if you said you didn’t want someone like him on your team. The only reason UM isn’t 0-11 right now is because Hart has put the team on his back. If #20 played defense, kicked field goals, and called plays, Michigan would be a juggernaut.
  • No doubt you’ve noticed by now that this is a list of intangible reasons why UM will prevail. That’s because on paper, Michigan has no statistical advantage over the Buckeyes in any phase of the game (with the exception of the above UM > Illinois > OSU argument). However, this rivalry has always been more about the intangibles than anything else. Historically, the lower-ranked team usually wins the game. That favors the Wolverines this year.

Are there any other reasons that you can think of for why UM will win this game? (Later this week we’ll look at things from the Ohio State side, so keep your comments here limited to possible advantages for Big Blue.)

——
**Last year, Brian called me out for claiming that UM would fold under a spread offense, having not encountered one all season long. The past year of me being proven right aside, some think that a spread offense is a QB in shotgun with five WRs. It is not. A true spread offense is a run-first scheme, using multi-receiver sets, guards that pull and trap effectively, receivers that block, and a QB that uses a zone read option to either run himself or get the ball to someone who will. Florida runs a spread. Oregon runs a spread. Troy Smith and Vince Young ran spread offenses. This year, OSU does not (…although, you’d have to think Tressel – like the rest of us – noticed Boeckman’s 225 all-purpose yards from last week…).

Memories…

pittmanUM2006

Ladies and gentlemen, SO WHAT!?!

OSU FootballSo OSU didn’t make it to the BCS game again.

Fans from ages past would hang their heads in shame at the lot of you.

You’re upset over a Big 10 record 20 straight conference victories?!?

You’re upset over a 28-game regular season winning streak?!?

You’re upset over two straight Big Ten championships?!?

You’re upset that your team has been dominant enough have a chance to beat Michigan for ANOTHER championship, and a trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time in ten years?!?

You’re actually angry?!?

Well SUCK IT UP!!

IT’S MICHIGAN WEEK!!

Ohio State isn’t defined by its loss this weekend!!

THIS is Ohio State Football!!

Link to clip, H/T to Jeff @ the BBC, as always.

Gameday: (1) OSU vs. Illinois – Semi-live Update

OSU FootballA couple things before the game starts:

  • Shawn Crable and the rest of the UM defense made some pretty dirty plays against Wisconsin. I also noticed that Wisconsin’s D wasn’t as chippy today as they were last week in the ‘Shoe. This does not compute.
  • Andre Ware is the new Trev “I miss Mark” Alberts. I’m not sure he has a left side to his brain.
  • I was hoping Michigan won today. I really didn’t want extra motivation going into next week. This is something that doesn’t bode well for Ohio State. But maybe, just maybe, they are truly beaten down and they ain’t getting up again.
  • And another thing — Mississippi State beat Alabama, the same Alabama that took LSU down to the wire. Can we now say that the SEC is not, in fact, the power conference? Please?

Now let’s go Bucks!

First Half

First play — 65 yards down the field. Uh-oh, Spaghetti-OH!

Second Half

I had to step out for a little while and now I return to this horror! Gah!!

Congrats to the Illini.

And now they fighting. Great job.

I’m not feeling so hot right now, so I’ll just let this soak.

sportsMonkey here:
It’s still a great season, everybody! Don’t fret too much.

It’s okay to be disappointed that the Bucks won’t go to the BCS game, but that’s an unreasonable expectation for any team. If it happens – hey great. But don’t forget what the real OSU goals are: (1) Big Ten title, and (2) victory over UM. Sure, it would have been nice to dispatch an overrated SEC team in the title game, but that would have been a bonus. Trust me when I tell you that, if the Bucks win next week, you won’t be so upset about today’s loss.

Still, I know some still want to blow off steam about today’s game, so here are some points for discussion:

  1. Do not blame the defense for the loss… Illinois is a fine offensive football team. The goats in this game are Boeckman and Tressel.
  2. el Kaiser will vouch for the fact that earlier this year I said that, if the Bucks lost this season, it would be due to Boeckman’s underthrown wounded ducks. Not that I’m happy about being right… but I’m just sayin.
  3. 4th down, 7 minutes to go, Illinois punting… and Tressel calls a time out?!? Worst coaching decision of his career here at tOSU. It allows Zook to change his mind, he goes on 4th… and that’s the game. Even Zook expressed puzzlement after the game; he was ready to give the ball back to the Bucks in good field position with 7 minutes left. As bad as the O-line and Boeckman were playing, OSU still had an opportunity to go for the win, but the coaches took it away from the team.
  4. The Illini football players running over to the Buckeyes to taunt them after the loss is the most classless thing I’ve ever seen, and they’d better know that the Buckeyes won’t forget that when they travel to Champaign next year.
  5. It’s a long shot, but keep in mind there are three weeks left, and lots of matchups and rivalry games between teams from the top 5. It’s conceivable that OSU could climb back up to #2, if enough teams ahead of them lose. Not likely, but possible. Remember, that same scenario was the only reason OSU was #1 to begin with.
  6. Silver-lining: OSU, UM, Wisco, and Illinois will probably be ranked in the top 25, and have all proven themselves very capable of being strong contenders in their bowl games. Add in PSU, and the Big Ten should, once again, have a very good postseason.

Sylvester Yon-Rambo here:
I truly believe the world wont end today.

With that said I honestly believe that there is no way not to blame every aspect of this game on everyone. It is the coaches fault for many blunders it is the Offense fault for not performing the plays. It is the defense fault for not stoping Illinois. It is the Speacial Teams fault for not performing better. It is the fans fault for not cheering louder all game long ….instead they sat there and thought to themselves all game long we are ok we will come back….. so they didnt get loud until it was too late.

Now onto Illinois. CONGRATS you guys are the first ones all year to watch tape of the Florida game last year. The game plan was exactly the same….. SPread us out and run on occasion and throw deep when we load the box. It was such an exact replay of the NC game that it was frightening. SO with that said kudos to ZOOK and company for calling a great game and realiseing our weakness.

Now onto the players…. you played a great game and beat us on every side of the ball. Now go over and cheer with your 3000 fans and enjoy what you just accomplished……. instead you act like thugs and morons and try and dance on our BLOCK O…. What a truly classless act. I am sick and tired of other teams being disrespectful to our team and stadium everytime they get a win here…… You will win a game here and there and get to do this but we will win 20-30 games and not do it on your field…. ZOOK this is your fault for letting the bottum of the barrel players get away with acting like they actually helped get this win.

Now onto my favorite subject….. scUM

scUM week is officially on and the winner of this game will at least get a Rose Bowl invite….. if not BETTER lol.

So in brief I will say this about this weeks game. scUM couldnt run a SPREAD if they were putting butter on bread.

Regaurdless of which QB plays this week niether can run for 2 yards let alone 20.

Thier running game will not be based on tricks and gimmicks.

So it wont matter if Hart is in the backfield or not….. we know he will run behind Jake Long.

So I see this game going the same way they have for 5 out of 6 years a complete and convincing victory for the Buckeyes.

Illinois Open Thread

OSU FootballIllinois brings a strong 7-3 team (3rd in the Big10) to the ‘Shoe on senior day, seven days before the Big 10 Championship game. (Yes, the Big 10 has a championship game, just like the SEC. We don’t play ours every year, but we do most years.)

Are the Bucks going to get caught looking ahead to Michigan? Keith says “nope.” Eleven Warriors postulates that Illinois’ chance to win might have gone down with Matta’s loss earlier this week.

This is the first week where Tressel’s gameplan is absolutely transparent. Stop Mendenhall, and you beat Illinois. Zook knows that the OSU front seven is the best he’s going to face this year, and will probably try to keep them honest by going vertical a few times or using some trick plays out of a spread option setup. Watch the Vest counter by mixing formations back and forth between the even and odd man fronts.

I drove by the Horseshoe yesterday, and the crews were setting up the lights. With a 3:30 kickoff, this game – the final home game, the final game for the seniors (and some star juniors, no doubt) – will be played mostly after dark. The night has been very good to OSU this season.

This week’s questions:

  • Final score?
  • Will Mendenhall be kept under 100?
  • Will Wisconsin beat Michigan?
  • Do you think this is the last time that juniors Robiskie, Jenkins, Laurinaitis and Gholston will play in the ‘Shoe?

sportsMonkey’s answers:
Final Score? – OSU 38-20
Mendenhall? – 85 yards net, thanks to a few TFLs.
Wisco vs. UM? – OSU tenderized Wisco last week; too many starters are now injured to be a threat to the Wolverines. UM would have no excuses for losing this game. That being said, it is Camp Randall in November…
Juniors? – Personally, I think it depends on how the season ends. Trip/victory in the BCS title game, and they’re probably all gone. I’m thinking Jenkins and Robiskie will head to the NFL no matter what happens, though. Word on the street is that A.J. Hawk is trying to convince the Little Animal to stay.

Sylvester Yon-Rambo’s answers:
Final Score? – OSU 45-6
Mendenhall? – 53 yards no way he gets through the line. I hear Mendenhal and ARMS will just arm wrestle for yardage all game long.
Wisco vs. UM? -I have said all week that Wisky will get this win. scUM is just plain awful even in wins they look bad. Wisky sucks too but it is at home and they have to have this win for them to get the capital one bowl lol.
Juniors? – I dont think it matters that WE WILL win the BCS NC game. I believe this is the year we dont lose all our talented juniors. The mere fact that little animal has discussed all of them coming back next year in interviews is enough for me to believe they will all return. Of coarse I was 110% that Gonzo and Pittman would return. (Oh Pittman what a horrible decision you made) Hopefully that will be all they need to know they must comeback 1 more year. If Pittman isnt enough to convince them I have lined up a few FAT ENVELOPES to be stuck into thier lockers or coat pockets by some “Car Dealers” form the Toledo area. So if they get caught I can say I bet they were scUM fans those stupid car dealers from Toledo always are.

el Kaiser’s answers:
Final Score? – OSU 34-23
Mendenhall? – 101, over. I’m going against the grain here, but Mendenhall is all they’ve got. If he doesn’t get his hundred plus, they don’t score a touchdown.
Wisco vs. UM? – Michigan wins close, 24-21, but at what cost? Henne or Hart suffers an injury that hampers him greatly for next week.
Juniors? – I feel like Jenkins and Gholston are gone, no matter what happens. As much as it pains me to say, I think Little Animal is gone when we win the MNC. Robiskie seems like the kind of kid that sticks around.

Zeke’s answers:
Final Score? – OSU 33-16
Mendenhall? – under, but I think he will come close.
Wisco vs. UM? – Either way the Big Ten Title will be decided next week. That being said I think Michigan wins a close game.
Juniors? – I also believe the end of the season will have an influence on who stays and who leaves. As for now, I think Jenkins will leave early and all of the others will stay.

Weekly Vernon Gholston Shot

Vernon Gholston
Mmm, tasty Buffalo Quarterback Wings.

Data on Common Opponents – Illinois

OSU FootballHow many of you knew that it was Illinois, and not Michigan, that used to be OSU’s primary rival? The annual matchup with Michigan didn’t really become a full-blown rivalry until WWII. Prior to that era, however, the Buckeyes and the Illini were among the fiercest rivals in college football. They met on the last game of the season until 1933, and have been on each other’s schedule every year but two (2003 and 2004).

To this day the teams pass back and forth the “Illibuck,” the second-oldest trophy in the league. They originally passed back and forth a real turtle, but its death in 1927 caused them to modify the tradition. Since then, nine wooden replicas of the original Illibuck turtle have been carved, each with the scores of the games on its back. Yes, Illy Illibuck even has a Facebook page.

Bonus tradition goodness: Honor societies from both schools used to ritualistically share a “special” peace pipe at halftime. I assume the tradition stopped due to the lack of twinkies and BBQ potato chips in the vending machines at the ‘Shoe.

The tables list the opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Illinois

  Pts Pts (opp) Yds Yds (opp) Frst Dwns Dwns (opp) TOs TOs (opp)
Penn State 27 20 336 427 17 18 2 4
Wisconsin 31 26 410 519 18 28 0 2
Minnesota 44 17 655 337 27 18 2 1
TOTAL 102 63 1401 1283 62 64 4 7
AVERAGE 34 21 467 427.7 20.1 21.3 1.3 2.3

 

Table 2: Ohio State

  Pts Pts (opp) Yds Yds (opp) Frst Dwns Dwns (opp) TOs TOs (opp)
Minnesota 30 7 459 277 24 15 1 2
Penn State 37 17 453 263 24 14 1 2
Wisconsin 38 17 377 281 21 15 0 2
TOTAL 105 41 1289 821 69 44 2 6
AVERAGE 35 13.7 429.7 273.7 23 14.7 0.7 2

 

Oohh!! Oooh! Bonus table goodness this week!! The values in Table 3 indicate a team’s overall performance, percentage-wise, against the average numbers the common opponents typically allow.

For example, in the table below, Illinois scored an average of 24% more points on these common opponents than what those opponents typically allow, while the Illini defense held these opponents to 27% fewer points than what they were typically used to, and so on.

Table 3: Performance against what Common Opponents Typically Allow

  % Scoring % Scoring Defense % Yards % Yards Allowed
Illinois +24 -27 +15 +6
OSU +26 -52 +8 -32

 

Notes:
At first glance, it seems the teams perform similarly to one another. That’s if you skim the Average and Total rows in Tables 1 and 2. However, compare the games themselves. Look at how Illinois performed against Penn State (7 point differential) to how OSU performed against that same team (20 point differential). Wisconsin is very similar: the Illini won by less than a touchdown, where OSU beat the Badgers by three touchdowns. Moral: the Illini’s performance against hapless Minnesota seems to be skewing its averages.

Also notice the scoring trends. (It’s why we list the teams chronologically.) Both teams’ offenses are scoring more points each game. FWIW.

Check out the Yards Allowed column in Table 3. Illinois is actually allowing opponents 6% more yards than what they typically average. It hasn’t come back to bite them, though, as their offense has performed well enough to cover for the weakness.

Anything else jump out at you?

Wisconsin Performance Evaluations

OSU FootballLet’s do this

sweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gif

Defense – 3 Sweatervests

I struggled with this one. On one hand Vernon Gholston and James Laurinaitis had huge games. Almost 20 tackles for the Little Animal and four sacks for the Python Tamer. Laurinaitis was free to roam thanks to the D-line keeping blockers off him and Gholston and the rest of the DE’s (we are so deep at the ends, it’s almost unfair) got pressure all game long. On the other hand, you have the to two sustained touchdown drives, missed tackles on crucial 3rd-and-long plays and again, TWO TOUCHDOWNS. I’ll give Jenkins a little slack for his missed tackle on Beckum, as Travis has NFL talent and size. He is a big dude (6-4, 224) and Jenkins (6-1, 208), not as much. Nevertheless, that was one of many missed tackles that drove me crazy.

I’m taking all this under consideration without giving any weight to the luck Wisconsin had on more than one occasion. It can’t be ignored. The second touchdown was a desperation heave by Donovan, off his back foot, into the most improbable and almost uncatchable location possible. Kudos to him. There’s no defense for going up against Lady Luck.

This has nothing to do with the Defense’s performance, but I was really hoping PJ Hill could have played in this game. Zach Brown was a competent runner, but the defense could have used Hill as preparation for Mendenhall this week and Hart next week. They need confidence they can shut down a great running back, not just a decent one. Still, how can you be worried about opposing offenses when you see this:

Ohio State’s Defense

sweatervest.gif

Opponent – 1 Sweatervest

Wisconsin came close to getting the dreaded no-sweatervest score not because of how they played (which wasn’t bad and would have earned them at least 3.5 SV’s) but how they acted after the whistle. I mentioned it in my semi-live update, but it bears repeating — hooting and hollering and getting in people’s faces after you make a tackle, no matter how impressive it was, has no place when you are losing by 14 points. Get pumped, high-five your buddy and get your sorry, no good, yella, losing-the-game-by-14-points keester back to the huddle. You made a great play. Good work. Now do it again on the next play.

Ooops, did Beanie just ran over your FACE?!

I listened to some of Bielema’s press conference after the game. He mentioned that he didn’t want his team to back down, not to be intimidated. That’s fine. Do it with your arms and legs, not your mouth. One of my favorite aspects about Tressel-coached teams is that you never see this. It’s never “look at what I did,” it’s all about “what we did.” Cue up Beanie’s score and run straight to the bench if you want to see how to do it. Make a great play? Great. Get ready to line up and run another.

sweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gif

The Running Game – 4 Sweatervests

Like most of you, I was wondering where the running game went during most of the second and third quarters. I thought we had good success running Beanie on the first couple of drives, when Wisconsin was obviously playing to stop the pass. Getting away from the run was a mistake and it showed. Going back to the run paid dividends very quickly. Twenty eight straight points prove that point.

I love how Beanie is running. Even when it looks like he’s in pain after every run, he gets back there and does it again. Wisconsin defenders were lucky they never really got close to tackling him. They were spared punishment via the Stiff Arm of Justice™

halfsweatervest.gif

Officiating – 0.5 Sweatervests

Garbage. Absolute garbage. While I can’t point to any particular play, I had the pervading feeling the whole game that we were getting jobbed. A missed holding call here, a questionable call there. Maybe I’m not remembering correctly. Something just didn’t feel right. But worse than the missed calls were the fact that they never flagged Wisconsin for obvious taunting on more than one occassion. They had the power to take control of the game, but the never did.

sweatervest.gifInfinity

Vernon Gholston – figure it out

What more can be said about our collective man-crush? Wisconsin’s offense, Donovan in particular, was absolutely abused by Gholston. We’re talking pull-the-pants-down, spanked-on-the-bare-bottom-with-a-wooden-paddle-with-holes-cut-out abused. The defense is starting to call him “The Animal.” I don’t think that’s quite right. I prefer Manimal. Dude is just sick.

sweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gifsweatervest.gif

Overall Performance – 4 Sweatervests

Baseline: 3 Sweatervests; +1 for each of Beanie’s TD runs, -1 for each of Wisco’s; +1 for each time Donovan was sacked, -1 each time a Wisconsin player whooped it up after a non-play.