OK Buckeye fans, you’ve waited a year for this revenge spanking.

Questions still arise: Will Illinois be able to depend on another two touchdowns courtesy the corrupt/incompetent officiating this year?

Not that we’re still bitter or anything. But it’s at least encouraging to know that Stephan Pamon will watching the game at his local B-dubs rather than dressing in stripes tomorrow.

But back to 2008’s matchup. In two of its past three games, OSU has found a spark with its offense, and they’ll be meeting a Zook squad that seems to be on its way down after losing to Western Michigan last week.

I don’t think there’s any mystery about this Ohio State offense anymore. It’s clear that it’s designed to wait patiently, then pounce on an opponent’s mistakes. If an opponent plays a mistake-free game, the Bucks either lose (USC, PSU), or struggle (Ohio, Purdue).

So where does Illinois fit in? How about tied for last place in the Big 10 in interceptions lost? It’s an encouraging stat for an OSU secondary currently playing lights out. This year, besides losing Pamon, Illinois has also lost Mendenhall, which will allow the improving D-line to key on Juice. Once again, it seems reasonable to assume that the nation’s sixth best defense will keep Illinois to a beatable number of points.

Which means that, once again, the outcome will come down to which OSU offense shows up. The weather looks to play some sort of role, as well.

So, chime in:

• Final Score?
• Will Laurinaitis chug his Juice Box tomorrow?
• Does Malcom Jenkins sew up the Thorpe award tomorrow?

sportsMonkey predicts:

• OSU, 27-10
• Revenge. Sweet revenge.
• Jenkins has another quietly dominant day, Juice avoids throwing his way.

el Kaiser predicts:

• OSU, 37-16
• You know when you push the straw into the CapriSun pouch too hard and all the juice spills out? Yeah, that’s what LA does to Juice’s head.
• Doesn’t he already have it sewn up? If not, then yes.

Penn State’s loss against Iowa has all but shut out increased the Buckeyes’ chances of making it to Pasadena.

Assuming a PSU win next week, the Lions and the Spartans will be playing for Rose Bowl rights on November 22nd. A Michigan State victory creates a tie between Ohio State and Michigan State, with Ohio State owning the tie-breaker in the head-to-head category.

Contrary to popular opinion, an MSU win will not put the Bucks into the Rose Bowl, as a Big Ten tiebreaking rule would then be applied: the team with the fewest I-AA opponents would go. Since Sparty did not schedule an FCS opponent, they would get the automatic bid by default.

Ohio State’s only path to the Rose Bowl is for PSU to lose next Saturday (15th), and MSU to lose the following week (22nd). Both situations are very unlikely to occur.

So, assuming that Ohio State wins out (a big assumption, as there are still two very tough games left), that would place them in position for a BCS at-large bid.

Here’s where it gets messy: there are only two teams per conference allowed in the BCS. If Michigan State wins the conference’s automatic bid, then only Ohio State or Penn State will be allowed to go to a BCS game (not both). In that scenario, Penn State would likely be chosen since they’d probably be ranked higher.

If Penn State wins, then it’s safe to say that OSU has a lock on one of the at-large bids. Since the Orange Bowl has expressed interest in getting the Buckeyes this year — representatives of the committee were at yesterday’s Northwestern game — it seems likely that we’re going to see Ohio State match up against the ACC champion in primetime on New Year’s Day.

Not a bad end to a season at all.

So, once again, Buckeye fans, we are rooting (1) to win out, of course, and (2) for Penn State to beat Sparty on the 22nd. Otherwise, the Bucks will probably be heading to the Capital One Bowl, where Georgia seems destined to appear.

Update: el Kaiser here, hopefully to clear up some things sportsMonkey perhaps didn’t realize when he originally posted this. I’ll leave it as-is and let him clean it up as he sees fit, but it should be clear: A Michigan State victory over Penn State will send the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl, since Penn State will have two conference losses, and OSU and MSU will each have one. Since Ohio State owns the tie breaker, they get the nod to the Rose Bowl. (Recommended reading: Method to Determine Big Ten Conference Automatic Representative to Bowl Championship Series (thanks to all that sent that in))

Whether a Rose Bowl (and probably rematch with USC) trip is good for the Buckeyes is subject for another day.

Update to the updated update:
sportsMonkey here. Sorry, folks, for the original inaccurate conclusion. For some reason, I was applying the rules for a three-way-tie to a two-way-tie. I swear I wasn’t smoking or drinking anything when I wrote it.

I’d love to alter this post retroactively, but I’ll let it stand like the piece of fail that it is, and hopefully the shame will cause me to tread more carefully with predictions in the future.

In case you’re lost, the possibilities are these (assuming OSU wins out):

1. PSU loses next week to Indiana, then beats MSU the week after. OSU wins Big 10 outright, heads to Rose Bowl.
2. MSU beats PSU in two weeks. OSU and MSU share Big 10 title, OSU goes to Rose Bowl via tiebreaker rule.
3. PSU loses next two games. OSU and MSU share Big 10 title, Rose Bowl for OSU.
4. PSU beats both Indiana and MSU. Penn State and OSU share Big 10 title. Lions go to Rose Bowl via tiebreaker rule. Orange Bowl for OSU. (IMO, this is the most likely scenario.)

Again, though, those four outcomes all depend on OSU winning out. Based on the remaining SOS, it seems likely that the Buckeyes will be favored in both games. However, let’s not look too far ahead. Illinois matches up very well against the Buckeyes, and as always, the outcome of the Michigan game is 50/50, no matter the records, no matter the teams.

Sorry again for the ginormous post of FAIL. Mucho thanks to el Kaiser for spotting me (and saving MotSaG rep) while I was AFK.