Week 13 Open Thread

We’ve still got some time before the most boring game of football since the Game of the Century assaulted our eyeballs and sensibilities a few weeks ago. Why not join in the weekly open thread before the offensive explosion that is Ohio State/Penn State happens.

Feel the excitement!

Penn Shtate Preview

(This was post was supposed to be posted tomorrow, but thanks to the site’s EIC fat fingering, it went live early. Either way, enjoy. – ed)

The season is almost over and it can’t end any faster for our beloved Ohio State Buckeyes.  Off the field issues, poor performances by the coaching staff and players, and inconsistent play on the field by the “rotating” team leaders have left us where we are today.  Where are we?  Sitting pretty with a smooth 6-4 record and a more than realistic chance of losing the final two games of the season to finish 6-6.  Thanks poor decision-making of college students (tattoos…smh) and adults (covering up tattoo bartering exercise with lame excuses).

Speaking of poor decision-making…get a load of Penn State.  Someone should put together a case study on how to “not” run a school or athletic department in times of legal duress.  This should be written up after someone puts together a case study on how to “not” run a school or athletic department in times of NCAA duress.

I have a special place in my heart for a few schools.  They exist in this special place for various reasons.  Michigan is a no-brainer and this isn’t a Michigan preview, so we will just save that vitriol for another time thank you very much.  You would think that Wisconsin would be here, but really Wisconsin…they are the semi-attractive girl in high school that you know could look really good if she would just stop chewing on tree bark, smoking marlboro reds like a chimney, and eating the cafeteria pizza everyday (like a boss) in her spare time.  I’ve got no time for her right now and it really doesnt matter.  You already know how her story is going to end.  She will remain ugly (ie be Wisconsin) and pop out a bunch of large ugly kids (ie. Wisconsin recruiting) before the marvels of modern dentistry, exercise, and nicorette are bestowed upon her.

Penn State is the school that encounters most of my disdain.  Why Penn State?  Talk to any living alumni or current student and they will all tell you the same thing.  “Penn State does it the right way.”  Ya know…with honor and stuff.  We have all heard this for years no matter which team you supported.  Even the media has jumped on it in the past that JoePa and mighty Penn State can do no wrong.  While high profile schools like OSU and even Michigan have been in the crosshairs of the media and the NCAA for misdeeds (extra practice yielding no better on-field results for Michigan and tattoos yielding no better on-field results for Ohio State),  Penn State and everyone that associates with the school has been “white-towering” all of us.  They have been for years.  I have always held the belief that State College has protected the Penn State name from a lot of things that we will never hear about.  The only reason we have recently heard about the increasing number of incidents is because of Al Gore’s fantastic invention of the internet.  Players can’t escape the scrutiny of social media with message boards and twitter.  State College is the Ohio college geographical equivalent of Ada (Home base for Ohio Northern).  If Ohio Northern packed up its bags and left Ada, there would be no more Ada (Yes, the Hardees would close down fo realz).  Plain and simple, the lifeblood of State College (just like Ada on a larger scale) is Penn State University.  We have the same thing out here with Washington State in Pullman.  All of these schools are geographically located in areas of their respective states that no one wants to visit unless they are required (or maybe if you are on the run from the law).  I know that this may be a reach to someone that supports Penn State, but bear with me and hear me out.  Maybe, just maybe, it benefits State College to never place the school or its athletic department (aka the football team) in harm’s way if the town can avoid it.  I am not saying that everyone that lives there is a liar and wouldn’t do the honorable thing (that distinction goes to the coaching staff for the PSU football team), but let’s just say that it is not out of the realm of possibility that the people in authority turned their heads upon seeing some poor player behavior.  I know…it is a foreign concept that would never happen in Ann Arbor or Columbus.  I may be kidding a little bit only for the simple reason that it does happen in these places, but the sheer population does not allow for these things to swept under the rug as easily as it is in a place like State College.  I have often had (scary, scary) visions of Joe Paterno going all Coach Kilmer (Try and tell me you didn’t just pull a “I don’t want your life” and have visions of Vandermemes past.) on the State College PD for late night extra-curricular activities starring the players of the PSU football team.   The fight club mantra of “On a long enough timeline. The survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”  can also be fairly equated to major football programs.  There is absolutely no way that Penn State could be that clean.  It isn’t possible.  It is like saying that graduates of SEC schools outside of Vandy and Florida can read beyond an 8th grade level.  Sorry, it isn’t believable…not to me and not to anyone.  I actually hope that Mike McQueary is telling the truth, because if he did go to the police…well…it will make this cover-up (Another Penn State dirty little secret) look even worse.

*rant fin

Now onto the game?

Oh yeah…I guess there is a game this week between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.  I guess there was also some type of email that was sent out telling OSU fans and students to keep it on the level this weekend and not be John Q. Wisconsin fan, John Q. Penn State fan, or even John Q. Michigan fan tailgating on the golf course.  I appreciate the sentiment, but if the roles were reversed and OSU was playing at any of these schools (maybe an exception of UM), we would not get the type of “quarter” that is being asked of us by our own university.  From urine bags to beer cans, Penn State fans have earned every bit of the upcoming vitriol this weekend and every weekend going forward.

One of the biggest surprises of the year (outside Denard’s annual post-September Heisman collapse), has been Penn State’s ability to put together a solid season rolling off to an 8-1 start prior to an almost expected loss to Nebraska.  Granted, this has been thanks to the B1G scheduling gods for putting Minnesota on the schedule 6 times before having to play anyone with a pulse until Nebraska rolled into town.

On offense, PSU has a solid ground game with Silas Redd who is averaging over 100 yards per game and basically is the PSU offense.  Penn State has been winning in spite of the terrible QB play (imo) of the walk-on Matt “Moxie” McGloin.  He is more of a blue-collar QB that will make plays through sheer will where a lack of talent may be exposed.  McGloin has at least eliminated the amount of interceptions this season with only three for the season.  It is going to be a lunchpail game for Penn State.  They are going to run the ball…A LOT.  This should help OSU’s defense, if they are ready to start tackling people on Senior day.  If Silas has 60+ yards in the 1st half, I would just start punching yourself in the balls over and over again instead of watching the second half.  This would be a perfect game to get Christian Bryant into the star position and have him run around and try to make something happen against the run game, because that guy is feast or famine against the pass (mostly famine).

Penn State has never had any issues with playing defense in the past and it wont be the case in this meeting either.  They are currently 3rd in the FBS in scoring defense, which is around the area where we normally find the OSU defense in this statistic…but not this year my friend.  OSU is 16th in this category, so the expectation will probably have this game in the low 20’s on either side.  As is always the case, there will be a defensive lineman that plays the game of his life against OSU and that one will most likely be Devon Still.  Still has had a very good season and should show favorably in this game if Shugarts isn’t available.  This terrifies all OSU fans…or at least it should, as OSU is craptastic at protecting the QB this season (dead last in the B1G in sacks allowed).  Did you know that Ohio State is 27th in the country in rushing offense without a single player in the top 14 rushers in the B1G?  I am not sure if they will hit their 200 yard rushing average in this game, but let’s hope for everyone’s sanity in Columbus that they get close.

Game Prediction:  PAIN and lots of ugliness.  This game will be won on the ground unless Moxie has another first half like he had  last season in Columbus.  Most of us on the OSU side would prefer the second half Moxie show up in Columbus again where he was a walking “pick 6” machine. Obviously, the game will be won on the ground, which is the way Old Testament God intended in the B1G.

So that leaves us with the weekly questions……

1.) Will OSU slow down Silas Redd and hold him under 100 yards?
2.) Will OSU score any TDs?
3.) Over/Under passing attempts for Braxton set at 8.  What do you got?
4.) Who has more rushing yards Boom or Braxton?
5.) How many times will Braxton be sacked in this game?
6.) Greater number of media mentions?  OSU NCAA Issues or Penn State Issues
7.)What is the final score?

YNBA Score Prediction: 20-17 Ohio State

Penn State By The Numbers

Since I more or less stole the format for the By The Numbers posts whole from Black Shoe Diaries, I’ll just point you to their post. (Just remember, the good guys are in the right column this week).

Buckeyes get the Schott rocking

In only the second game of the 2011/2012 Mens basketball season the 3rd ranked Buckeyes hosted a fellow top 10 team. The Florida Gators ranked 8th in the nation came into a seemingly revitalized VCA where the students are grouped together and actually on the first level where they can make a lot of noise and disrupt the opposing team. The Buckeyes are extremely young with 11 freshman or sophomores on the team. OSU started 4 Soph. in Smith, Craft, Sully, and Thomas along with senior William Bufurd. The gators have a bevy of upperclassmen that they mix in with some younger players.

Early on the youth of OSU showed as Florida seemed to have their way driving the ball down the court and dishing it off to wide open shooters behind the line. The Gators hit 4 of 5 behind the arc before the 16 min TV timeout and had a sizable lead. Coach Matta quickly subbed in some other guys to give him a chance to calm the guys down and remind them to play better defense. It seemed to work well as OSU closed out the first half by going on a run and taking 35-32 halftime lead.

In the second half of the game the Buckeyes controlled the pace and played well on defense while hitting some big shots. OSU had gotten the lead up to 15 points late in the second half before OSU again showed their youth and inexperience by letting the Gators climb back into the game although it proved too little too late as OSU won the game 81-74.

OSU was led in the game by William Bufurds 21 pts and 6 rbs. OSU had 4 players score in double figures led By Buford with 21 and Jared Sullingers 16 pts and 6 rbds and DeShaun Thomas 15 and 6 and Aaron Crafts 13 pts and 7 assts. Coach Matta stayed true to his typical self not playing many bench players in big games. Evan Ravenel and Jordan Siebert got most of the bench minutes with 14 each. They gave the starters time to rest and played great defense and even a little offense.

It was a good win early in the year against a really good opponent. The Gators were an elite 8 team last year and are solidly a top 10 team this year. OSU will have plenty of time to get better before their next big game when DUKE comes to town on November 29th with 4 cupcake games. They will need to get these bench players more playing time and experience before then and rest the starters for tougher games. All in all OSU is off to a 2-0 start and the skies the limit this year.

Train Wrecked

On a blustery day in West Lafayette, the Buckeyes had the opportunity to put themselves into the driver’s seat for a spot in the B1G championship game.

Instead, they spent three hours reminding us why Ohio State will spend a lot of time this offseason in search of new coaching.

That about sums it up.It can’t just be me who has noticed – since the Cooper era – that Ohio State often comes out flat in noon kickoff games, and today was no different. It’s almost a university tradition at this point, and there has to be a rational explanation for it. Given the stakes of every remaining game this season it’s incomprehensible that a team that had so much to gain – and lose – could come out looking like Zach Galafanakis in both Hangover movies. If anyone has thoughts on this I would absolutely love to hear them. My opinion is that it all boils down to coaching. And today was by far the worst display of coaching that I have seen in my fifteen years of following Ohio State football.

I had a 1500-word post written to recap this game, and that was before it went to overtime. I’m tossing the entire thing out and replacing it with the following:

7 Penalties for 50 yards – almost every one of them impacted the game at a critical moment, and that doesn’t count the ones that were declined or offset.

5 sacks for -19 yards – indicative of the completely uninspired performance put forth by the offensive line.

One blocked XP (which would turn out to be the biggest play of the game) and a missed FG – either of those being good wins the game for the Buckeyes in regulation.

About three thousand missed tackles – reminiscent of the Miami game

Completely unimaginative playcalling – especially in the first half.

I’m not going to rag on the players today, even though by halftime Antonio Underwood had played the worst game I’ve seen by a lineman since Alex Boone in the 2006 MNC. Most of them are extremely young and are going to make mistakes. Think back to when you were 18. I know I did a lot of stupid things back then, and I bet you did too. I don’t expect Braxton Miller to be 2005 or 2006 Troy Smith just yet and I know he’ll throw a few BauserBombs (5 today by my unofficial count) along the way, but he’ll be great some day. Ditto with Roby, Shazier, and Devin Smith.

The bottom line is that this team came out and underperformed in every aspect of the game. They came out and didn’t make a positive play until early in the second quarter. The lone phenomenal play – Miller’s magical touchdown pass to Jordan Hall with 55 seconds remaining – almost immediately was stripped of its importance as the Buckeyes allowed Purdue to block the PAT attempt.

The entire debacle was just a giant, rolling ball of suck. And I wish I had spent the day punching myself in the nuts rather than watching it.

On the bright side, we now don’t have to worry about falling ass-backwards into a good bowl game and getting annihilated by a team with a competent coaching staff. So we’ve got that going for us. Which is nice.

Answering Jason’s questions from the preview…
1. Ohio State is averaging fewer than 9 completions per game and has earned honorary service academy status.  Will the Buckeyes complete double-digit passes this week? Nope. 8/18 for 132 yards.

2. Purdue gives up nearly 260 rushing yards in games against teams with a winning record, about 8 fewer than Indiana.  Last week, Ohio State produced 3 100-yard rushers against the Hoosiers.  Will it happen again? No. They had 18 yards rushing in the first half. Total. The second half was a little better, but ultimately Purdue’s playing with a 6-man front ended up being effective enough.

3. The game is on Big Ten Network, so we should hopefully be spared of too much moronic announcing.  Still, there’s only one topic in college sports this week and the team involved is playing at the same time as we are.  How soon after the opening stadium shot does someone mention Penn State/Joe Paterno, how many plays do we miss due to cutaway coverage, and does anyone compare a decade-long cover-up of serial child rape to lying about ineligible players? Not that I heard. The coverage still sucked, being BTN

Purdue Live in-Game Chat

Purdue Preview

The last time Ohio State visited Ross-Ade Stadium, things didn’t turn out so well.  Back in mid-October 2009, Purdue was 1-5 with only a season-opening win over Toledo to their name.  On the other hand, the Buckeyes were 5-1 with just a 3-point loss to USC against them.  Purdue won that day, thanks to some pretty hapless offensive play on our part (including 5 turnovers), and that is what makes Saturday’s game frightening for some.  After all, I’m pretty sure Bollman actually has a formation called “Hapless.”

This year, we meet a little later and Ohio State is 6-3 and on a bit of a roll with three straight wins since the return of the still somehow underappreciated Boom Herron.  Purdue is 4-5 and has lost three of their last four.  It’s tempting to argue that this Purdue team is better than the one that broke their five-game skid against the Buckeyes two years ago, but it’s just not true.

Of the five losses that preceded their upset victory, only one (the 35-20 drop at Minnesota) came by more than a single possession, including a 2-point road loss to an Oregon team that would end up taking on Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.  The Boilermakers would lose two more games that year, a 37-0 trouncing at Wisconsin and a three-point loss to Michigan State at home.  Only two of their wins were by less than a possession (and Ohio State would’ve needed the two-point conversion just to get to overtime).  With just a little shift in luck, 2009 Purdue could have easily been an 8-, 9-, or even 10-win team.

Meanwhile, this year’s version has a good chance of ending up with the same 5-7 record (remaining games: Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana), but is simply not the same team.  Already, the Boilers have two close wins this year (against Illinois and Middle Tennessee) and two close losses (at Penn State and at Rice) and have been blasted by Wisconsin, Michigan and Notre Dame.

Only two teams beat 2009 Purdue by a significant margin.  Three have already done it this year with three games left to go.  Luke Fickell, bound by the Coaches’ Code of saying things you don’t really believe in the name of motivation and focus, reminds us that Purdue is much better at home than they are on the road.  And that’s true, technically.  By the way, which of these teams would you say is the most like Ohio State:

Middle Tennessee
Southeast Missouri State
Minnesota
Illinois

Those are the four teams Purdue has beaten at home.

I get that the nightmarish memories of Purdue road trips in 2009 and 2004 make people nervous for tomorrow’s game, but keep in mind that the only player remaining that contributed anything of significance to the last meeting is Boilermaker RB Ralph Bolden.

The main thing that sticks out to me (statistically) is that in almost every game this year, Purdue is essentially a non-factor.  Teams tend to score and allow points near their season averages when playing the Boilers (only Illinois put up significantly fewer points than usual).  If that holds exactly true for Ohio State, the final score will be an appropriately vengeful 26-18.  Personally, I think the Buckeyes continue to improve and do a little bit better than that:  Ohio State – 30, Purdue – 14

Questions:

1. Ohio State is averaging fewer than 9 completions per game and has earned honorary service academy status.  Will the Buckeyes complete double-digit passes this week?

2. Purdue gives up nearly 260 rushing yards in games against teams with a winning record, about 8 fewer than Indiana.  Last week, Ohio State produced 3 100-yard rushers against the Hoosiers.  Will it happen again?

3. The game is on Big Ten Network, so we should hopefully be spared of too much moronic announcing.  Still, there’s only one topic in college sports this week and the team involved is playing at the same time as we are.  How soon after the opening stadium shot does someone mention Penn State/Joe Paterno, how many plays do we miss due to cutaway coverage, and does anyone compare a decade-long cover-up of serial child rape to lying about ineligible players?

4. And, of course, what do you think the final score will be?

Purdue by the Numbers


Statistically Speaking

Ohio State
Value (Rank)
Value (Rank)
Purdue
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 204.3 (24) 191.1 (91) Rushing Defense (ypg) Ohio State+
Passing Offense (ypg) 115.4 (118) 209.1 (43) Passing Defense (ypg) Purdue++
Pass Efficiency 120.2 (88) 122.8 (43) Pass Efficiency Defense Purdue
Total Offense (ypg) 319.8 (106) 400.2 (72) Total Defense (ypg) Purdue
Scoring Offense (ppg) 25.6 (79) 26.4 (58) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 118.2 (27) 175.0 (44) Rushing Offense (ypg) Push
Passing Defense (ypg) 193.9 (27) 192.1 (89) Passing Offense (ypg) Ohio State+
Pass Efficiency Defense 123.4 (46) 122.8 (82) Pass Efficiency Offense Ohio State+
Total Defense (ypg) 312.1 (16) 367.1 (83) Total Offense (ypg) Ohio State+
Scoring Defense (ppg) 18.1 (14) 25.9 (74) Scoring Offense (ppg) Ohio State+
Turnover margin 0.44 (33) 0.00 (60) Turnover margin Ohio State
Penalty Yards/game 46.1 (42) 64.9 (106) Penalty Yards/game Ohio State+
Sacks (/game) 2.33 (33) 2.00 (64) Sacks Allowed (/game) Ohio State
Sacks Allowed (/game) 3.11 (110) 1.33 (102) Sacks (/game) Push
3rd Down Conv. (%) 38.5 (76) 39.7 (63) 3rd Down Conv. Def (%) Push
3rd Down Conv. Def (%) 36.9 (39) 36.2 (94) 3rd Down Conv. (%) Ohio State+
Redzone Offense (%) 86.2 (34) 90.3 (112) Redzone Defense (%) Ohio State++
Redzone Defense (%) 77.3 (33) 85.3 (39) Redzone Offense (%) Push
 Legend
  Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
  Difference >25 in National Rank = Ohio State
  Difference >50 in National Rank = Ohio State+
  Difference >75 in National Rank = Ohio State++
  Differences >100 in National Rank = Ohio State+++

Presented, always, without comment. But not without emoticons: :/

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

Saturday Instant Analysis

I will go into more details later this week about the OSU vs Indiana game that we saw yesterday. Brief synopsis OSU can run the football really well and can pass the ball really badly. Nothing new there it has been the case all year. Defensively they continue to have let downs on occasion but do enough to win games. I will have a lot more on that later. Special Teams continues to be the most consistent part of this team. A win is a win right?

Around the B1G Iowa showed what most Non-scUM fans already knew this team is pretty much the same it has been the last few years. They are improved some but still have a ways to go and Denard still sucks at the QB position. Before the year started I picked Northwestern to win their division. Yesterday they finally showed me why I made such a bold prediction beating Nebraska in Lincoln. MSU escaped with a win against a revitalized Minnesota team. Wisconsin showed Purdue what a cornered Badger will do and Monte Ball proved he is a 1st team all B1G RB. Penn St. had the week off but I will have a note about them at the end.

The “Game of the Century” proved to be a worse game then PSU vs Illinois. Both Bama and LSU didnt score a TD as LSU won on a FG in OT 9-6. If ESPN thinks this is awesome football they would love B1G football but they really hate defensive games with horrible offenses right Mark May? The SEC bias is so huge they are drooling over a horribly executed football game.

Penn State fans before you go nuts posting replies on this post realize Pennsylvania State Law requires any suspected Child Molestation to be reported to the Dept. of Public Welfare by oral communication within 24 hours and written communication in 48 hours. So many people at PSU broke this law when they didn’t report Jerry Sandusky raping of a suspected 10 year old boy in the Football locker room witnessed by a Graduate Asst. back in 2002. JoePa was told and just casually passed the info onto his boss who had an interview with the Grad Asst. and then shoved the info under the rug. Joe Pa and several others in the know never contacted police and just “Banned Sandusky from bringing kids to campus” basically saying hey go rape kids just don’t do it in our locker room showers any more please. This story is just breaking and if even 1% of it is true is without a doubt the most horrific scandal to ever happen in the NCAA. If you want more info on this story read HERE and HERE as this story continues to unravel it will only get worse so look for more on this story later in the week.

Indiana Live Game Chat