The Spread, Week Seven: Yo, VIP, Let’s Not Kick It

DROPPING SCIENCE

You’ve no doubt noticed The Best Damn Band In The Land getting tons of national (and international) love for their astounding tribute to video games (this link is HD and includes Script Ohio featuring Nebraska’s idiot kicker). You may have even noticed the two halves of football that surrounded this giant leap forward in the history of mankind. If so, you definitely enjoyed another game full of Buckeye touchdowns.

And no field goals.

Ohio State is currently ranked 124th (out of 124) in field goal attempts per game. We’ve lined up to kick just twice in six games. Both of those were situations when the game was tight and points appeared to be at a premium. Not surprisingly, they occurred in two of the Buckeyes’ lowest-scoring games of the year.

I did a little research and I feel comfortable in saying that I believe it is a goal of Urban Meyer and Tom Herman to eliminate field goals entirely at Ohio State. In his ten years as a head coach at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida, Meyer’s teams averaged just under 15 FG attempts per season (teams for which Herman served as OC had 16). In those same ten years, Jim Tressel’s Ohio State teams averaged 24.5. And guess what? Meyer’s teams just over 55 TDs (Herman: 43) a year, while Tressel’s turned in 41.5. So what? Tressel and Meyer had virtually the same winning percentage during that span, so I’ve basically proven nothing, right?

You don’t really think that’s where this is going, do you?

I’ll admit that my research on this is in the early phases, but take a look at the top five teams in terms of TD/FGA differential from last year:

1. Houston

2. Oregon

3. Wisconsin

4. Boise State

5. Baylor

Those teams averaged nearly 12 wins in 2011. The top ten teams averaged almost 11 wins. The top 20 averaged ten. In contrast, the bottom 20 teams averaged around 4.5 wins. You may be tempted to argue that winning naturally produces this imbalance. After all, if you score more points, you’re more likely to win. But Northwestern and Hawai’i (6 wins each) are both in last year’s top 20, while Rutgers and Penn State (9 wins) are in the bottom 20. This seems to suggest (as the Tressel/Meyer comparison does) that there are many ways to win, but aggressively pursuing touchdowns over field goals is in your best interest, and there is a strong correlation between this practice and winning a lot of games.

It sounds obvious, but how many times have you seen a team settle for a field goal to take the lead late in a game and then watch helplessly as the other team marches toward the inevitable game-winning touchdown? Or kick a field goal on their first drive just to “get points on the board?” Or do the same going into halftime? These kicks almost always follow a time-out. What if they had used that time-out to find the perfect end zone play instead?

Here are the top five teams in TD/FGA differential this year:

1. Oregon

2. West Virginia

3. Ohio State

4. Georgia

5. Louisiana Tech

They have one total loss. It belongs to Georgia, who lost to South Carolina. The Gamecocks are #12 on this list.

ON YOUR TELEVISION

The Red River Rivalry could be interesting this year. Texas and Oklahoma are both top 15 teams with just one loss. Too bad the only Big 12 team anyone wants to talk about is West Virginia.

Wisconsin at Purdue is essentially the Leaders Division championship game and that should make every single one of us incredibly sad.

Notre Dame hosts Stanford and another win will solidify the Irish’s resurgence and you are going to really hate sports radio for another seven days.

West Virginia at Texas Tech is virtually guaranteed to be another shootout that the Mountaineers win and you are going to really hate ESPN for another seven days.

 

 

 

B1G Power Rankings: Third Edition

Another disappointment on national television for the conference as Michigan lost on the road to Notre Dame, 13-6. But luckily for most teams, B1G play starts this week. Ohio State travels to Michigan State for one of the bigger conference games of the season and Nebraska looks for revenge versus the struggling Wisconsin Badgers. Michigan dropped from the three spot, all the way to seven in this week’s Power Rankings. Minnesota jumped from number ten all the way to number six as they defeated Syracuse (a quality non-conference win at this point.)

1. Ohio State (4-0)- For the third time in consecutive weeks it was not pretty, but the Buckeyes are still undefeated. They travel to East Lansing this weekend where Urban Meyer faces his first conference road test as head coach of the Buckeyes.
2. Northwestern (4-0)- Northwestern is the only team who scheduled and defeated three BCS conference opponents. Look for Pat Fitzgerald’s team to take care of Indiana this weekend before heading to Happy Valley.
3. Nebraska (3-1)- The ‘Huskers welcome back running back Rex Burkhead to complement their already great rushing attack (5th in the nation.) Nebraska’s upcoming battle against Wisconsin had to be circled on Bo Pelini’s calendar after last year’s debacle (48-17) in their first ever B1G game.
4. Purdue (2-1)- Coming off a bye week, Purdue takes on a Marshall team that is ranked number one in the country when it comes to passing the ball. Purdue should be able to score though, as Marshall is also ranked 121st in the nation in points against (42.8 per game.)
5. Michigan State (3-1)- Le’Veon Bell saved embarrassment for Sparty and the conference by rushing for 253 yards in an uncomfortable win versus lowly Eastern Michigan. They welcome College Gameday into town for what could be the best conference matchup of the year versus Ohio State.
6. Minnesota (4-0)- One of the three unbeaten teams remaining in the conference, the Gophers took care of Syracuse last weekend and hope to take advantage of a sputtering Iowa Hawkeye team.
7. Michigan (2-2)- TTUN has another week to prepare for the start of their B1G schedule after putting together another embarrassing performance on national television. Denard Robinson completely destroyed his pre-season Heisman chances by throwing four picks in a 13-6 loss at South Bend.
8. Wisconsin (3-1)- To make matters worse, Wisconsin lost Montee Ball to a head injury versus UTEP. For a shade of optimism, the Badgers are somehow 3-1 and could gain momentum if they defeat Nebraska this weekend.
9. Penn State (2-2)- In reality, Penn St. is only a missed field goal  from being 3-1 and up a couple of spots in the Power Rankings. Quarterback Matt McGloin is starting to grasp Bill O’Brien’s offense and he looks to keep improving this week versus Illinois.
10. Indiana (2-1)- Indiana had an extra week to prepare backup quarterback Cameron Coffman  for this game versus Northwestern. Coffman hopes to lead the Hoosiers to their first B1G victory since the 2010 season finale.
11. Iowa (2-2)- After another bad loss, the Hawkeyes are relieved that the non-conference schedule is over. They hope to start conference play fresh with a win versus unbeaten Minnesota.
12. Illinois (2-2)- The Illini let up a combined 97 points to Arizona State and Louisiana Tech, both pass first teams. Their schedule does not get easier as they have the likes of Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State coming up in the next five weeks.

Compare with last week: http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2012/09/18/b1g-power-rankings-second-edition/

Discuss…

The Spread, Week Four: The Game of the Century Parts III & IV

THE REMATCHMEN

As the would-be game-tying drive fizzled out for Matt Barkley and USC Saturday night, something insidious and horrible crept into to mind. This means Alabama and LSU will be ranked 1 & 2. Are we seriously going to do this again? It would serve college football right to have to endure a repeat of last year’s repeat for the national title. This past off-season, the powers-that-be finally agreed to a playoff format and the BCS was dead and gone forev–well, in two years anyway, because figuring out just exactly how to ensure that they don’t somehow end up the powers-that-were is going to take some time.

And now we’re all going to pay for it.

You already see how it’s going to unfold. As the remaining unbeatens in other conferences start playing each other, their numbers obviously begin to dwindle. Of course, this also happens in the SEC, but Bama and LSU roll on. By the time those two face off, we’re down to a handful of realistic contenders. Maybe Notre Dame is still alive. Maybe Texas. It doesn’t matter. The Tide and Tigers play another game of field goal derby and ESPN shifts into full This Is The Best Thing You Could Hope For mode. Maybe you even start to see their point. But there are still other undefeated options, so you stick to your anything-but-a-rematch guns and watch in horror as Florida State loses to Florida, Oklahoma knocks out West Virginia, USC gets the best of Notre Dame but falls to 2-loss Oregon in the P12CG. Ohio State thrashes the Big Ten but can’t play for a title. No one else in the conference has a resume worth reading. And there on top of it all sit Alabama and LSU, laughing quietly to themselves. We’ll look up and shout, “Save us!”

And ESPN will whisper, “no.”

HOW THE BIG TEN WILL EMBARRASS US THIS WEEK

Wisconsin: The Badgers take on UTEP, a team that has double-digit losses to Oklahoma and Mississippi and a double-digit win over New Mexico State. That’s great! you think. Wisconsin is more like the first two than the last one. Are they?

The Wisconsin offense is a sputtering mess and now they may be making a switch a QB. Unless freshman Joel Stave is secret offensive genius, don’t be surprised if this ends up being another nail biter.

Michigan: Last week, Notre Dame humiliated Michigan State right out of not just the top 10, but the top 20. We’ve already seen the Wolverines dismantled by a top team in the spotlight and after surviving a scare against Air Force and taking it out on UMass, they have to travel to South Bend to face the first 3-0 Irish team in a decade. While the Domers haven’t faced an athlete like Denard Robinson yet this year, they have held three different types of offenses in check. I see no reason to believe at this point that they can’t do the same this week.

Minnesota & Illinois: These two are actually having pretty decent seasons so far. Illinois did lose big to Arizona State, but that was on the road and those games are always tough. This week both face high-yardage offenses and either could easily lose. I’m mostly worried for Illinois, as LaTech has a pretty balanced attack and isn’t afraid to operate one-dimensionally if they have to. Minnesota is here because they’re undefeated and we all know that isn’t going to last.

OTHER THINGS TO STARE AT

Wednesday: Kent State @ Buffalo. While they’re not the most dynamic teams around, it’s still worth a check-in because MACtion.

Thursday: BYU @ Boise State. I guess some people around here would like it if I said something pro-Mormon for a change. Fine. I would like it if Boise State lost this game. Happy?

Friday: Baylor @ Louisiana-Monroe. ULM played two SEC teams on the road and came away with a 3-point win and a 3-point loss. Baylor is unbeaten but unchallenged in the post-RG3 era. You already know the answer.

Saturday: Clemson @ Florida State. The last two undefeated teams in the ACC meet and it’s only week FOUR! Haha, they’re as bad as we are!

Over/Under 7 or 70: UMass @ Miami (OH). Combined, these two teams have scored fewer points per game than 89 other FBS teams have alone. Individually, they have given up more points than the top 6 teams combined. If you’ve ever wanted to see what happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object, I promise you there will be seats available in Oxford. Get Bruno’s afterward so the whole day isn’t a waste.

Bacon Ninja Weighs In: Florida

The following is a fragment of an intercepted message, sent by Bacon Ninja from an undisclosed location somewhere in the mountains (two and a half miles east of Interstate 25 exit 149 in Colorado.)

“…and I never saw the dog or the raspberry jam again.
“Then there’s this business with people in Florida acting all butt-hurt over pretty much everything Urban Meyer says or does. Not just Gator fans but journalists and commentators too – it’s kind of ridiculous. I think I get what it’s all really about though. Let’s face it, while Florida has been a very successful program over the last twenty years or so, it doesn’t have the same tradition and legend as the Alabamas and the Ohio States and even the Notre Dames of the world. People don’t leave those places voluntarily – unless they’re about to get creamed by the NCAA. Meanwhile Florida’s two most successful football coaches both left by their own choice to pursue different opportunities – Spurrier to coach in the NFL and Urban to spend time recovering from being too hardcore – I mean, to take a year off before going to Ohio State which wasn’t even remotely close to being in the market for a new head coach at the time he left Florida.
“Imagine that for a second – Florida has been a dominant power the last fifteen years or so and its coach leaves to go to Ohio State? Slowhio State? Really? (I mean, never mind that Urban didn’t actually leave Florida to go to Ohio State, we’ve got to go with their premises here to grasp the underlying psychosis.) What does THEE Ohio State University have that UF doesn’t have? Snow?
“If I was a Florida fan, I’d be waking up in the morning and trembling in my jean shorts that UF is nothing more than Miami ten years ago. They won 5 national championships over twenty years and then became almost irrelevant. I’d be terrified that Muschamp is a younger Larry Coker with a less impressive resume.
“And Urban’s actions – as they see them – made it painfully clear that no matter what UF does, they’re still new money. They aren’t the Rockefellers and the Carnegies of the world by any-”

END OF TRANSMISSION

 

B1G Power Rankings: First Edition

1. Michigan State– The Spartans squeaked out a win versus an always tough Boise State team week 1 and walloped in state foe, Central Michigan this past Saturday. With College Game Day coming to East Lansing, look for Sparty to run all over Notre Dame. A tough defense and a great running game have Sparty ranked number 1 in the first Power Ranking.
2. Ohio State– The Buckeyes need another option on offense, as Braxton Miller cannot carry the ball 20+ times per game for the rest of the season. Look for the secondary to step up to the challenge that Kennan Allen and the Golden Bears bring into the ‘Shoe this Saturday.
3. Northwestern– Coming off two solid non-conference victories, the schedule gets easier for the Wildcats as they do not face a formidable opponent until they travel to Happy Valley week 6.
4. Michigan– Although it was a joy to watch TTUN get dismantled in Jerry’s World, Denard Robinson got back on track versus Air Force. Nothing to really watch for this week as they play UMASS, a team who is new to the FBS and who were also trailing Indiana 38-0 at halftime last week.
5. Nebraska– The Huskers are coming off a loss to UCLA at the Rose Bowl where their run defense failed to show up. Hopefully Nebraska does not overlook Arkansas St this weekend because they can light up the scoreboard. They put up 34 points on Oregon in week 1 (albeit in the second half) and put up 33 in a victory over Memphis last weekend.
6. Wisconsin– There is turmoil in Camp Randall right now after the team decided to part ways with their offensive line coach after squeaking by Northern Iowa then losing in Corvalis the week after. They come home this weekend to play Utah State, who can run the ball and play defense. Always a recipe for an upset.
7. Purdue– Played Notre Dame at South Bend good enough to win but could not close them out in the fourth quarter. Dark horse to represent the Leaders Division if Wisconsin completely falls off the tracks.
8. Penn St– I feel for Bill O’Brien who left a great situation in New England to join a horrible situation in Happy Valley. But on the other hand, I do not feel bad for the Nittany Lions as this season seems like a great example of Karma. They should be fine versus Navy if they can kick a Ficken field goal.
9. Iowa– You could probably flip flop spots 9-12 but Iowa always plays tough defense and always has a tough offensive line, so I’ll put them here.
10. Illinois– This was not a good week for the B1G Ten versus the Pac-12 as the Illini got mangled down in Tempe versus Arizona State. They should win the next two games though before the conference schedule begins.
11. Minnesota– Not impressed after the Gophers needed 3 OT’s to defeat lowly UNLV especially after the Runnin’ Rebels lost to Northern Arizona the week after. I would also not count their win against FCS opponent, UNH as much either. I could see them come back down to earth after their 2-0 start.
12. Indiana– Maybe would have had them up a few spots if quarterback Tre Roberson did not break his leg last weekend in their rout of UMASS. Roberson is out for the season and the Hoosier’s hope of having a successful season is also dashed.

Tough week for the conference as a whole, feel free to discuss…

Live In Game Chat – UCF

The Spread, Week One: FOOOOTBAAAAALLLLLL!!!!

Hey guys, welcome to The Spread.

[insert elaborate opening credits sequence featuring skydiving royalty and Mr. Bean and some weird metallurgical dance number here]

So, by now I’m sure you’re asking yourself, “What is The Spread that I shouldn’t just stop reading right now and go back to what I was doing?” Well, stop asking yourself; you don’t know and you look ridiculous. The Spread is essentially just Poll Dancing with a new name, because as you know, I single-handedly changed the college football landscape with my constant ranting and raving about the BCS and soon we’ll have an actual playoff to determine the national champion and this happened because of me only and not for any other reason so don’t let anyone tell you different. So I figured since I’ll be shifting gears in this space, I’d come up with a new name for it and that’s what I did so give me my money.

Hey, Ohio State is not the only team with a new coach this year, although we might as well be for all the good it’s going to do those other poor Urbanless bastards. Here’s a list of guys who actually got head coaching jobs this year, presumably from people who think football is this or this:

Bob Davie – who got Notre Dame sued for age discrimination almost immediately after being hired and then never won a bowl game for the Irish.

Charlie Weis – who was almost as bad as Davie at ND, but did win that one bowl game against Hawai’i.

Rich Rodriguez – who is like Michigan’s Bob Davie if Bob Davie was even worse at winning football games.

John L. Smith – who is this guy.

Good luck with that.

Hey, there are college football games this week and not just reruns of all the various Alabama/LSU or Michigan State/Wisconsin games from last year. Brand new games, and some of them aren’t terrible! At least they aren’t yet.

THURSDAY Don’t watch these games. I know you kind of want to, because football’s been gone so long and now it’s back and you love football and so do I so we should watch these games right? WRONG! Don’t fall for it. ESPN is capitalizing on your starved passion and trying to trick you into watching a bad SEC game that you would never watch if it weren’t the only thing on. South Carolina and Vanderbilt? Seriously? You might as well have said A Four-Hour Claymation CHiPs Reboot Featuring The Voices Of Gilbert Gottfried, Richard Dreyfuss and Jennifer Tilly. Or maybe you were planning on checking out Texas A&M @ Louisiana Tech or UCLA at Rice or Minnesota at UNLV? I don’t even know you anymore.

FRIDAY Okay, you’ve waited long enough. Turn on the TV and check out Boise State @ Michigan State. The Broncos have been the darlings of college football since making a movie around Oklahoma in that Fiesta Bowl. But they’ve only played one Big Ten team in their entire history and that was a loss to Wisconsin in 1997, when 3 of the Badgers’ 8 wins were by a single point. The Big Ten remains the only conference that Boise has played and not beaten. You won’t often get my permission to cheer for another Big Ten team, nor will you often ask for it or ever care what I have to say about what you can do with your Yuengling-soaked vocal cords, but Friday you’ll get it. Use it wisely.

SATURDAY Obviously, this is the big day. It’s so big that you can watch football at nine in the morning without being on the West Coast! That’s when Navy/Notre Dame kicks off in Freaking. Ireland. and I will stop trying to convince you to watch it now because if you don’t watch a game from Ireland then seriously, why are we even friends?

Then you’ve got all your noon games, including Miami at Ohio State. Which is what you’ll be watching, so let’s move on.

The rest of the day’s games are just background noise for your five-hour celebration of the no-huddle wizardry you just witnessed. You should probably spend this time watching the game again and try not to pass out before Alabama/Michigan rolls around at eight. If you think you’re getting more of that Big Ten permission here, you are dead wrong, bucko, and I hope you don’t even want it. It really doesn’t matter who wins this game because it will mean that the other team lost and that can only be a good thing. But since it’s a football game we’re watching, we have to cheer for somebody and can you really cheer for this guy? I can’t.

MONDAY Go ahead and watch Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech if you want, see if I care.

Well I guess that explains a lot

From Chat Sports – Michigan Wolverines:

In a shocking revelation, this former player told me that over half of Michigan’s defensive starters and several key offensive starters partied deep into the night the night before the 2007 Michigan vs. Appalachian State game, then smoked marijuana hours before kickoff in an effort to “see how bad we can beat up if we are stoned.”

via Orson

(Man, it felt good to break out the LLLLoyd image)

Why the statue came down

You’ve likely noticed that the MotSaG crew has been rather restrained on the PSU Scandal. Last year, we addressed our outrage in our Failures of Courage column, and left the sordid situation alone to ferment on its own.

Today the (in)famous Paterno statue was torn down. If you listen to most PSU fans, the removal is an overreaction and a kowtowing to the MSM’s unfair scapegoating of Paterno for the scandal. But these fans aren’t thinking big-picture: the removal had nothing to do with that at all.

The Paterno family jumped on the opportunity to draw more attention to themselves by issuing a statement. Paraphrasing part of that statement:

“Tearing down the statue of Joe Paterno does not serve the victims… Despite this obviouslyflawed and one-sided presentation [of the Freeh report], the University believes it must acquiesce and accept that Joe Paterno has been given a fair and complete hearing. We think the better course would have been for the University to take a strong stand in support of due process so that the complete truth can be uncovered… It is not the University’s responsibility to defend or protect Joe Paterno. But they at least should have acknowledged that important legal cases are still pending and that the record on Joe Paterno, the Board and other key players is far from complete.”

Leaving aside the obvious smoke and mirrors (‘hey everyone, forget that Freeh released emails proving Paterno perjured himself and lied to everyone for 12 years, look over here! something shiny!!’), it misses the entire point of why the statue HAD to be moved to a “more secure location.”

The statue wasn’t torn down to serve the victims. It wasn’t torn down to “keep Paterno from due process.”

It was torn down for PR purposes only.

Had the statue remained, it would have required security officers to guard it 24/7. Otherwise, it would have been vandalized, abused, and had funny and/or obscene pictures hung on it for eternity. It’s really that simple.

It was a lose-lose situation: Leave the statue for the angry mobs to deface, with imagery forwarded through the Internet at can-has-cheeseburger speed and on TV every Saturday; or guard it and suffer the negative PR of metaphorically defending a man who covered up pedophilia just to win football games. Lose-lose.

Also, keep in mind the context: the statue was removed one day before the NCAA hands down its “unprecedented” sanctions against PSU. You don’t think the administrators weren’t worried about the statue’s well being in whatever wake of anger will flow through State College this week?

The BOT removed the statue because otherwise, the statue becomes Paterno’s legacy. They’re doing the same thing they did when they fired him – protecting PSU’s brand, not Paterno’s.

Busy, BRB

Oh hey, look, it’s a blog post from someone at Men of the Scarlet and Gray. It’s not even August yet! You guys are supposed to still be in hibernation…

Yeah, well it’s really just so I could say that of all the things I don’t have in common with Duron Carter, I do have one: A debilitating addiction to EA Sports’ annual College Football Video Game Computer Simulation Engine, NCAA 13.

So yeah, I’ll be busy for the next few weeks, bringing the North Royalton University Bears back to rightful place atop the College Football Throne.

In the meantime, we’ll hopefully have some closure on the “Football Moments” bracket I started. Yes, I haven’t forgotten them. I’m also working with the sportsMonkey on some sweeping changes at the site that will hopefully be rolled in in the very near future.

But for now: digital high school recruiting.