(This is a guest post by Garth, an Ohio State law grad and a future member of the MotSaG writing staff. Because of the breadth of this post, it will run in two parts. Part one ran on Friday and Part runs today)

Effect on Ohio State Athletics

There is no question the O’Bannon case has the potential to fundamentally change college athletics, but one has to be careful about getting into the prediction business. Did Curt Flood, via Andy Messersmith, change baseball? No question, he did. Did he hurt baseball? It does not appear so—baseball has seemingly thrived despite the advent of free agency. Did Title IX wreck college athletics? No, not in the grand scheme of things—football and basketball have thrived and women’s athletics has become a standard and important fixture in the collegiate sports universe (proponents of certain men’s programs like wrestling and men’s soccer might disagree as many of their and other men’s programs have been eliminated as a result of Title IX).

Furthermore, there are many potential outcomes, and who really knows what the effect might be and whether that effect is negative in the long run. One of the things at stake in the O’Bannon suit is the very nature of amateur athletics which itself has eroded in major respects over the last one hundred years (e.g., the Olympics no longer require participants to be amateurs). What I mean is that, the antitrust laws are aimed at businesses, customers, employees, etc. College sports involve “students” who, in conjunction with their student status, are not employees working for a fee, but are amateurs participating in a school sanctioned activity. (One only imagines the implications of an O’Bannon trial win for glee clubs and musical performances). An O’Bannon win could likely rip to shreds the notion of student and amateur status as they apply to collegiate sports. Thus, it could be that for certain sports the idea of amateur status could be abandoned and the sports might be operated by the schools as a sort of semi-pro league. Or the colleges could simply license their name, rent out their facilities and abandon any matriculation requirement, much as some schools approached football in its infancy.

Alternatively, Congress could step in and simply provide that antitrust laws do not apply to the NCAA–effectively dong for the NCAA what the Supreme Court has done for baseball (and still could do for the NCAA). For example, Congress could simply amend the antitrust statutes to clarify that institutions of higher learning offering intercollegiate sports opportunities to matriculated students were never intended to be covered by the antitrust rules. One can only imagine the shape such legislation might take and the exceptions it might permit and the conditions it might require.

Disregarding such unintended and unforeseeable consequences and only extending into the future what we know about the current landscape, what effect does an Ed O’Bannon complete win portend for Ohio State athletics? From a very narrow but colossally important perspective, very little and in fact, if one assumes collegiate athletics is a zero sum game, where winners win more as losers lose more, it could be quite positive—AT LEAST AS TO THE SPORTS THAT SURVIVE. Let’s face it, college football is the monster at the center of all this, and no program sits any higher in the hierarchy, as a practical matter, than Ohio State. A strong second fiddle is basketball, and Ohio State is certainly a top tier player there as well. So Ohio State is going to do just fine—as for football and basketball.

From a football perspective, the most common observations are that a complete O’Bannon win would mean that players would be paid at least a stipend (if not a lot more), that such a stipend would be affordable only by the richest programs and this would accelerate the move to just a few super conferences. Given the re-alignment that has already taken place and the move to more competitive schedules to prepare for the new national championship mini-tournament that will commence in 2014, this will not have huge additional effect on Ohio State. Basketball would share much the same dynamics.

As for recruiting for football and basketball, it is very tough to predict the outcome. Recall that to make the case eligible for class action status, there has to be a showing of typicality, which could require a uniformity of damages. Thus if the case were to go to trial as a class action and the plaintiffs were to prevail, the judgment might have to be uniform as to the plaintiffs, and this would probably drive a uniform approach to future player payment. So depending on the award it may not be that an SEC team could compete against a Big 12 team and say,” listen, we can pay you a higher share of our TV revenue than they can over there.”

However, if the award is a percentage of that conference’s revenues, just perhaps this kind of recruiting could conceivably take place. It would not appear one could recruit a five star player and suggest he would be paid more than a three star recruit on the same team, but these are the unknowns. Of course a settlement could provide for an acceptable per diem—for example $2,000 or $5,000, etc. Could football offer a higher stipend or payment than basketball? Can certain sports be excluded altogether?

However, as AD’s around the country have observed, and as OSU’s Gene Smith has said directly, a substantial diversion of revenue such as the O’Bannon case might mean will certainly cause a reduction in the number of sports supported by Ohio State. If this is true of an athletic program as rich and as successful as Ohio State’s imagine the carnage that could be strewn across the rest of the vast collegiate landscape.

There is already a great divide among athletes even at a program like Ohio State. For example, in a normal year, Ohio State would have 85 players on full scholarship, including full room and board. While there are a few walk-ons, the expectation for anyone who gets on the field is that he has a full ride. The women’s soccer team however is only allocated eleven scholarships even though the team needs 25-30 players. Those players work at their sport just as hard as football players do and many come from families as impoverished as the families of many football players. An Ed O’Bannon win would exacerbate the difference as football and basketball members share in the proceeds of their sports television revenue while the women’s soccer players receive virtually nothing, and given the shake-up in the economics of running an athletic department, would likely receive even less than they receive now.

So an additional irony is that the families of players in the minor sports, who can rarely see their child on television, will likely receive less for their efforts, while the families of the major sports players will be compensated even more because of an intangible benefit they and few others enjoy.

Also likely to change for Ohio State athletics is the nature of recruiting for all sports and the shrinking universe of competitors for sports, especially outside of football and basketball. To the extent sports are dropped in other programs, there will be fewer competitors, both for recruiting and for competition. To the extent an athletic program shrinks around football, because of Title IX, the impact will necessarily be felt most by the men’s programs (though women’s sports will likely be severely affected as well). Thus, the Ohio State men’s hockey and wrestling and teams will have more recruiting opportunities but fewer competitors. But of course, in the zero sum game of college athletics, these benefits depend on being one the programs that survive—and even if it does, in reality, outside of recruiting, a sport hates to sees competitors disappear from the competitive landscape. In addition, a sport like men’s lacrosse, or possibly baseball may be in danger if so many other programs cut those sports that the sport fails to achieve enough national or regional gravitas to continue to justify the support now provided.

One is tempted to say that while a sport like wrestling will be clobbered, and to some extent that will be true, at Ohio State it is not likely to be cut because of wrestling’s relative strength in the midwest and particularly in the B1G. However, there are programs within the country where wrestling does enjoy some television prominence and revenue, Iowa and Oklahoma State for example, and it is possible that certain schools could recruit by offering a share of television proceeds in a way Ohio State could not, again depending on how the typicality requirement of the class action rulings are interpreted.

Sheesh Already

There is no way to project how an O’Bannon win could play out. Certain claims have been left out and certain plaintiffs overlooked—mostly to fit this case within a winnable case to sustain a class action for the current plaintiffs. But those fights will be fought again someday if O’Bannon sniffs victory—either as part of a settlement or in new and separate suits. In fact the NCAA could start to face multiple class action attempts all at once.

The judge is likely to take several months to issue her decision and even then, it could be a year or more before it is known how this could play out. At some point we will know whether a career flop like Ed O’Bannon can nonetheless achieve the same if not greater transformational effect as a player of Curt Flood’s status achieved forty years earlier.

From the moment Brady Hoke accepted the Michigan job, Danny Hope’s days at Purdue were numbered. Hoke, as you have probably noticed, has a severe mental condition which causes him to confuse similarly named things. Doctors believe this condition is responsible for his insistence that Ohio University is the Wolverines’ arch-rival (Fig. 1) and even his marriage to Laura Homberger (Fig. 2). So, even if Hope hadn’t failed on the field, Hoke would have eventually called for his removal after showing up at the wrong campus one too many times.

There was a moment in 2012 where Hope might have actually had a chance to still be around in 2013. As you remember, the 3-3 Boilermakers were up 8 on the Buckeyes with less than a minute remaining in the game. Star QB Braxton Miller was on his way to the hospital and no doubt Hope had turned to imagining the celebratory Sunday headlines, unaware that he was about to get smooth-jazzed out of a job.

So now former Tressel assistant Darrell Hazell takes the reigns and if you thought Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen was inexperienced, then Hazell is like a coaching newborn. With just two years at Kent State under his belt, it’s nearly impossible to guess what Hazell will bring to the Boilers. His two primary assistants (OC John Shoop and DC Greg Hudson) have shown an ability to improve their respective sides of the ball at previous stops, so that’s a good sign. In addition, Hazell has consulted with former Purdue QBs Kyle Orton and Drew Brees, so it’s likely that we’ll see the pass-happy basketball on grass style of offense that most of us associate with good Purdue teams.

That’s all well and good, but the spot of interest for Buckeye fans on Hazell’s staff is at offensive line, where the B1G will witness the return of the Wal–wait, no way, you’re kidding… he didn’t just say what I think he did, did he?

For some reason, Hazell has snagged Jim Bollman from Boston College to coach his offensive line. I’m assuming the buyout for Bollman was a bag of magic beans. While Bollman won’t be involved in play-calling for Purdue, he will be expected to actually coach the offensive line. To block defenders. You don’t really need me to tell you how bad he is at this specific task, for which he has been collecting paychecks nearly as long as I’ve been alive, but I’m going to anyway. Last year, as the OL coach for Boston College, he turned in a unit that ranked near the bottom of the country in the two major statistics that signal offensive line strength: rushing offense and sacks allowed. BC averaged 91 yards per game on the ground, good for #119 (out of 124). On top of that, they gave up 34 sacks (#102), nearly 3 per game (#106).

UPDATE: Bollman has been hired by Michigan State head coach (and former OSU defensive coordinator) Mark Dantonio to serve as the Spartans’ OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR. The Walrus has somehow managed to do absolutely nothing and get a better job for it. His mere existence forces me to question the very nature of our universe.

Still, I have high hopes for Hazell at Purdue. Bollman’s firing is an inevitability and I’d put the over/under for that one at First Day Of Spring Ball. Shoop and Hudson will get things moving in the right direction and as long as Hazell gets enough time to build the team he wants, he’ll have the Boilers threatening for B1G titles eventually.

Ridiculously Early And Entirely Baseless Prediction for 2013: 4-8 (Losses to Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State)

Not long after Wisconsin humiliated Nebraska in last season’s Big Ten Championship Game, head coach Bret Bielema announced he was leaving the school for the same position at Arkansas, a shocking move when you consider how much success Bielema had with the Badgers. But our good buddy Bert was getting his scowl in a bunch over his inability to retain assistant coaches due to, as he tells it, Wisconsin’s tight purse strings. To be fair, his staff had just been raided by Pittsburgh’s Paul Chryst, so maybe he had a point.

Then again, Nick Saban has won three national titles in the past four years. How many assistants from his 2009 staff were still on board in 2012? Three.

So shut up, you big baby.

Uncharacteristically, Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez had the good sense (desperation?) to consult Urban Meyer and replaced the insufferable Bielema with probably way more sufferable Utah State head coach (and former Meyer assistant) Gary Andersen, hot off an 11-2 season that included a WAC championship and a 2-point loss at Camp Randall.

Andersen is undoubtedly Utah State’s best coach ever, leading the team to their first double-digit win season and amassing 26 wins in four years. That doesn’t sound like much to Buckeye fans, but the Aggies had won just 9 in the four seasons prior to Andersen’s arrival. In 2011 and 2012, the team finished above .500 in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1980. They hadn’t even had a single winning season since 1996. In case you can’t fathom how long ago that was, this was the #1 song back then.

It’s tempting to think that Andersen might install some of Meyer’s read option concepts, but don’t bet on it. Alvarez has made it perfectly clear that Badgers coaches are expected to pattern their offensive philosophy after his own and so far, it’s been a successful formula. It’s also worth noting that Andersen is not really primarily from the “Meyer tree” as is generally implied. He spent six years on Utah’s staff under coach Ron McBride before moving on to the head job at Southern Utah when Meyer took over the Utes. Andersen returned to Utah for the magical 2004 season and remained on the staff under Kyle Whittingham after Meyer left for Florida. While he’s certainly not a stranger to the inner workings of Meyer’s offense, he’s not exactly a disciple either.

My biggest question with Andersen is whether he’s ready to lead a top program. While Ohio State and Michigan seemed poised to once again become the Big Two, there is still room at the top for a team like Wisconsin, especially if the rumored geographical division alignment separates the Badgers from both of those teams. (And there’s always the chance that Brady Hoke is as lousy of a coach as I think he is.) Andersen’s resume consists entirely of last season. Three of his five seasons ended with just four wins. Compared to the career trajectories of the most successful coaches in the BCS era, Andersen is severely lacking in the experience department. Even Meyer’s meteoric rise included pushing two programs (quickly) beyond their expectations.

Maybe that’s not what Wisconsin’s looking for. Maybe they don’t need their coach to be Urban Meyer (or Saban, Miles, Carroll, Brown, etc.). But wouldn’t they want that? Bielema–as clownish and douchey as he was–had the Badgers on the doorstep of greatness. And ultimately, it’s his fault that they will now take a step back. His blindside departure left Alvarez scrambling for a suitable replacement. I mean, he called the Ohio State head coach for help. This was not a coaching search that was going smoothly. Regardless of the official word, I would bet a million of these that Boise State’s Chris Petersen was offered this job.

But hey, maybe Andersen will pan out. If Wisconsin doesn’t immediately turn on him for not piling up wins right out of the gate, he could end up being a good fit for the Alvarez Mini-Me System.

Ridiculously Early And Entirely Baseless Prediction for 2013: 6-6 (Losses to Arizona State, Ohio State, Northwestern, BYU, Iowa, Penn State)