This Saturday, the Buckeyes will have their first game against a team with whom they share one or more common opponents.

Like last year, these weekly tables attempt to compare apples to apples between the good and the bad guys. As the season progresses, the tables get longer and become more reflective of reality. Take the first week or two with a grain of salt – the sample sizes are smaller, and therefore it’s harder to draw meaningful conclusions and/or discern any major chronological trends. This week the issue is compounded a bit by the OSU numbers not reflecting a healthy Beanie Wells – who played at 75% with an injured foot against Wisconsin and with the flu against Purdue. Still, the numbers are useful, especially the defensive ones.

The tables list the opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Penn State

Table 2: Ohio State

The values in Table 3 indicate a team’s overall performance, percentage-wise, against the average numbers the common opponents typically allow.

For example, in the table below, PSU scored an average of 31% more points on these common opponents than what those opponents typically allow, while the Lions’ defense held these opponents to 72% fewer points than what they were typically used to, and so on.

Table 3: Performance against what Common Opponents Typically Allow

Notes:
Yowch.

Now, before you Buckeye fans get too depressed about these numbers, it’s worth noting a few things. The defenses are pretty much even, which is good news. Yes, 72% is better than 57%, but the difference is negligible when there is only a four point separation between the two teams. This is reflected in the Yards Allowed column in Table 3.

Offensive production is where the numbers are most disparate. I’m sure Buckeye fans will point out that (1) Beanie’s big toe/flu problem against Purdue, (2) a night game at Camp Randall before Wisco mailed in the rest of its season, and (3) Pryor’s first road start of his career. IMO, excuses. I wouldn’t put much stock in such excuses if they came out of the UM side of the world, so I won’t espouse them here.

I will say, however, that optimism/pessimism aside, none of these charts show intangibles, like injuries, weather, etc. No question that OSU owns the associated intangibles: night game, at the ‘Shoe, in what looks like power-rushing game favoring weather, against an opponent that Tressel & co. have had good historical success against (one that hasn’t played against even a mediocre defense all season long), and with Beanie Wells who just might be above 80% for the first time this season.

But still, the numbers themselves aren’t encouraging. Argue among yourselves.

That whooshing sound you heard this afternoon was the collective sigh of Minnesota fans as they realized their team won’t be starting 5-0.

ESPN is reporting that Beanie Wells will return to the huddle this weekend against Minnesota. A huddle that will look quite different – with Pryor at the helm and at least one freshman (possibly two) on the line.

All we asked after the SC debacle was significant personnel changes, and it looks like Tressel is trying to make amends.

If you feel bad for Minnesota fans, consider the poor Gopher front seven. The energy and anger Beanie built while being injured, watching his Heisman shot go by the wayside, and not being there for the SC loss is going to be taken out on the conference’s 9th ranked rush defense. I predict 972 yards of rushing, before he is spelled in the second quarter by Boom Herron.

So it’s our job to make you Bucks fans feel more optimistic, eh? Do you want some reasons to feel less doomed going into this weekend? Let’s give it a shot.

If you haven’t heard, OSU doesn’t have a chance this Saturday. The Buckeyes are slow, plodding, underacheivers who are wasting everyone’s time with this fantasy of being among the nation’s elite. The one shot they had – a power game controlled by the nation’s best running back – has gone from "likely to happen" to "snowball’s chance" status over the past 24 hours with the doubtful status of Beanie Wells.

And the Trojans? Well, as the 52-7 buttwhoopin’ they laid on Virginia will tell you, they should just be given a pass through the rest of their season and sent straight to the NC game. No sense in delaying the inevitable, eh? Besides, it would be better for the self-esteem of everyone else in the Pac 10. Mark May could then die a sated man.

Or… is there reason for OSU to be optimistic?

Before you Buckeye fans open your veins at the probable loss of Wells, let’s try to be logical (read: non-ESPNish) about this. While it’s not perfect, the best indicator of future performance is past trends. Sure, there are exceptions, but if all we have is history, it’ll have to do. So, indulge me.

Big Road Game Trends

Let’s start by considering some trends surrounding this 2008 class of OSU starters. This Saturday’s game is just another in a long line of "huge regular season road games at night with national title implications" for these veterans. Consider the results of the past five:

It’s worth noting that the current group of offensive starters were not instrumental in the first two games in the list – they were there, but primarily led by Smith/Ginn/Gonzalez, et. al. However, the current group of defensive starters have been instrumental in all five matchups.

Four of the teams were ranked. Both Texas and Penn State had nationally-feared defenses. Trend-wise, note the yards allowed – the gradual improvement in the Buckeye defense is apparent. The overall view is obvious: OSU was never challenged in any of these games – even though the power running game was practically nonexistent (2006) or less than spectacular (Beanie’s 2007 injuries) in all of them.

Does this predict a victory for OSU this weekend? Of course not. However, it does clearly indicate that, quite simply, these are the types of games that this group of starters have historically played their best in. Of course the question still remains: "is OSU’s best better than USC’s best?" Only the game will tell. But for those hoping for OSU to lay an egg this weekend, or for USC to win in a blowout, the trends indicate that this is extremely unlikely.

The only thing we don’t have any history on is how the team will respond in a big game to a leader and captain going out to injury. Will the Buckeyes resign themselves to defeat due to disappointment over losing Chris Wells? Or will they rally and work harder? I could give you my honest opinion about that question here – but since this post is entitled "reasons to still be optimistic," I won’t, and we’ll move on.

"B-b-but Florida and LSU bowl game losses!!eleventy1!" Nonsense. This isn’t a bowl game. It isn’t a national championship game, no matter how hard the networks try to convince you. It’s in their interests to hype this game any way they can. This is just another big regular season game for both teams.

At any rate, there is a huge difference in playing in a national championship game against an opponent that you’ve known about for three weeks, having 50 days off beforehand; and a regular season matchup against an opponent that you’ve been preparing for all year.

USC’s Offense

What about this current class of USC starters?

This could be a post in itself – but let’s admit something obvious, here: this group of USC offensive players have never played against even a decent defense. The best defense that the Trojan starters have recently seen is UCLA’s – ranked 29th in total defense last year, and a team that didn’t even finish above .500. If you want to find a tougher defensive opponent than that, you’ve got to go back to the first game of the 2006 season, when the Trojans played Arkansas (ranked 26th in total defense).

Put another way, USC’s offense has not been challenged by a good defense for many years, and this group of starters has yet to be challenged by anything above mediocrity. OSU is coming into Los Angeles with the exact same players that led the league in defense for the past two years. Yes, their weakness for spread offenses and mobile QBs have been exposed and reviewed ad nauseam, but the fact remains that USC does not run an offense like Florida or LSU or even Illinois. The pro-set, sometimes-spread Carroll scheme is very similar to other Big 10 offenses, including the Buckeyes’ own scheme itself. In short, this is the type of offense that OSU has been specifically built to defend against, and they have a perfect record in doing so (with extreme prejudice, no less).

Experience

Finally, let’s compare and contrast experience. This group of Buckeye starters has more experience against the nation’s elite than any other team in recent memory – and not just OSU teams, either. They just might be the most experienced of any other team, period.

This specific group of OSU players has battled national champions and conference champions. They’ve won three conference titles in a row, and have endured the hype, preparation, experience, and ultimately the motivating humiliation for two consecutive national title games.

They’ve played against several of the nation’s top defenses and top offenses over the past couple of years.

They’ve played both with and against multiple Heisman, Thorpe, Doak, Maxwell, and Butkus winners.

They’ve played in big games of every type: home, away, bowl, day, and night. They’ve endured injuries to key, supposedly irreplaceable starters, only to replace them so that folks hardly noticed.

They’ve fought against teams headed by the nation’s elite list of coaches: Urban Meyer, Joe Paterno, Mack Brown, Lloyd Carr and Les Miles.

And if that resume wasn’t impressive enough, as of this Saturday, OSU will add Pete Carroll, Pac10 champs USC, another road night game, and numerous postseason award finalists from the Trojans squad to that list of experience.

Is there another college football team with a class of starters with such a deep resume? Certainly not. And definitely not USC.

In other words…

To sum up, this 2008 OSU squad has a historical trend of playing their best football in these types of situations. They’re infinitely more experienced than USC. They’ve been there, done that. It’s not likely that they’ll be intimidated or surprised by anything USC tries. And no offensive player on the current USC roster has the benefit of ever playing against even a moderately tough defense.

Again, does any of this make a victory more or less likely? Certainly not. But there’s no doubt whatsoever that the media’s propaganda view of OSU’s overall weakness is misguided, at least. The Buckeye defense alone should make this a better game that what most people think. And if USC’s overconfident "we grill steaks in the backfield" hubris keeps them from realizing the uncharted territory they’re going to find themselves in this weekend, they could find themselves surprised and reactionary against a motivated, deep, talented Buckeye team with way more to prove.

Or so Buckeye fans cautiously hope.

Jim Tressel said in today’s press conference that Chris Wells will be kept out of this Saturday’s game, but expected him to return to practice in the next couple of days.

He did not give a specific diagnosis, but it seems reasonable to conclude that it’s not a major injury. X-rays were negative, and they couldn’t have seen anything too serious on the soft-tissue MRI conducted yesterday, otherwise his practice would be restricted.

It’s likely that keeping him sidelined on Saturday is just a precaution, to ensure he’s ready for SC the following week.