Archives for October 2011

When previously unbeaten Clemson and Kansas State went down this week, you have to think that whoever still likes the BCS system got a little more comfortable and started imagining how everything was going to work out just fine yet again.  Virtually a given is that the winner of this weekend’s LSU/Alabama showdown will cruise through to the big game, joined by…

…oh, wait…

There are two other undefeated teams remaining from automatic-qualifying conferences, and the BCS needs one (and only one) of them to stay perfect along with the LSU/Alabama winner to ensure that the defense of their system isn’t completely laughable.  Those two teams are Oklahoma State and Stanford, not exactly traditional powers used to dealing with heightened expectations.  As the unfamiliar media spotlight (and pressure to perform) increases, so does the difficulty of the schedule.

Both teams face a much tougher road ahead than the one they’ve already traveled and this is where things could get ugly for the BCS.  Oklahoma State’s opponents so far have won just 54% of their games.  The opponents they’ll need to beat to make the title game have won 72% of theirs.  Similarly, Stanford’s first 8 victims won 43% of the time, while their next 5 (including the Pac-12 championship game, almost certainly against Arizona State) have won 60%.

This weekend, Oklahoma State faces Kansas State, fresh off their first loss.  They’ll close out the year against the team that beat KSU (Oklahoma), the team that beat Oklahoma (Texas Tech), and the team that just beat Texas Tech (Iowa State).

Stanford will travel to Oregon State for their second straight road game and may be a bit worn out from the triple-overtime thriller against USC.  The real test will come next weekend though, when the Cardinal hosts Oregon.  Admittedly this isn’t last year’s Duck team that averaged 47 points a game and lost only to Auburn in the national championship.  No, this year’s version is averaging 47.5 points a game and has lost only to potential national champion LSU.

So, of the six undefeated teams still out there, one is guaranteed to lose this week, two will be facing significantly tougher challenges from here on out than they have yet, and the other two are Boise State and Houston.  We know that Houston, regardless of how they finish, is not going to make the championship game, but Boise presents an interesting dilemma for the BCS.  What if we end up with unbeaten LSU, unbeaten Boise, and everyone else with at least one loss?  Can the Broncos, whose schedule features just one AQ-conference team (albeit the respectable Georgia), be a viable #2 over potential one-lossers Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, Stanford, Oregon, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Penn State, Nebraska, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, or even Cincinnati?  As much as I support the opportunity for any undefeated team to earn a championship in a playoff system, I can’t see a justification to give Boise State a shot under the BCS format (probably the main reason I hate the system to begin with).

If Boise does get the spot, and gets murdered by LSU/Bama (which is what would happen), then the outcry from the one-loss AQ teams will be just a shade less deafening than the one from Idaho if Boise doesn’t get the spot, especially if the game is still a blow-out (again, very likely) and the Broncos win their bowl.

Of course, maybe I’m wrong, maybe the Cowboys or the Cardinal will navigate the gauntlet and come out with a goose-egg in the L column.  Hell, maybe they both will.  Oops, that would be a totally different kind of BCS disaster…

BCS supporters–both of them–breathed a little sigh of near-relief this weekend as Oklahoma and Wisconsin joined the ranks of the beaten, inching the system that much closer to “getting it right” another season.  If you’re a BCS-hater like me, it’s tough to decide what to cheer for right now, as there are two options to get the most anti-system vitriol spewing next offseason.

Option One: Too Much Awesome

The Badgers and Sooners were supposed to help us out here, but there’s still hope.  The ACC’s Clemson remains perfect and has a reasonable schedule leading up to the conference championship, probably against Virginia Tech.  The Big 12 has no title game and two lossless teams remaining in Oklahoma State and Kansas State (they play November 5).  The Pac-12’s Stanford has challenges in USC and Oregon, but will have a relatively easy conference championship game if they can get there unblemished.  The SEC will almost certainly produce a undefeated champ as perfect divison-mates LSU and Alabama (also facing off November 5) probably aren’t sweating the eventual East champ too much.  On top of that, mid-majors Boise State and Houston will try to make their case should they continue their winning ways.  Expect the Broncos to gain some popular support.

The bottom line here is that 6 undefeated teams, including 4 from AQ conferences, would be too much for even the most devout BCS apologists to spin.  At the very least this situation would demand a four-team playoff or Plus-One style setup.  And that’s if you leave out the mid-majors again.

There really is no best outcome for the BCS here.  No matter who gets left out, they’re going to be livid and they’ll have a good point.  Whoever loses the game will be considered unworthy of their spot (as usual), and no matter how the other teams are matched up, the season will likely end with multiple unbeaten non-champions.  That will be ugly for BCS PR.

Option Two: Too Much Mediocrity

Let’s keep this scenario realistic (even though no unbeaten AQ teams and an unbeaten Boise is probably the worst thing for the BCS) and say that either LSU or Alabama wins the SEC at 13-0.  Sure, there could be a misstep elsewhere but it’s pretty unlikely with these two.  Next, Boise is probably going undefeated, but that’s not even necessary for things to get messy.  Aside from those two, every other unbeaten with a chance (sorry, Houston, no one cares about you… yet) could easily lose a game or two down the stretch.  Clemson visits Georgia Tech this week and South Carolina to finish the season, but their best shot at losing is an ACC title matchup with the Hokies.  Oklahoma State still has the season-ender against the Sooners, and Kansas State has Texas A&M still upcoming.  Also, of course, those two have to play each other.  Stanford has their aforementioned tilts vs. the Trojans and the Ducks.

In this scenario, we finish with the 13-0 SEC champ, 12-0 Boise State and a whole bunch of one-loss teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, any one of five Big Ten teams with big ticket-selling names, and whichever of LSU/Alabama doesn’t win the SEC.  This would be similar to 2007 with its mess of one- and two-loss teams clogging the top of the rankings but with the added Boise State argument.

At least this scenario can end with just one unbeaten national champion, but only if the BCS system allows Boise to play in the big game, something that will bother fans/coaches/administrators of AQ conferences who will cite the Broncos’ easier path to perfection.  Expect the volume on that argument to hit new levels if Boise gets blown out in that contest.

Either of these options would at least be damaging for the BCS and I have to think that Option One would be the worst.  There just aren’t a lot of legitimate arguments for why an undefeated team doesn’t deserve to play for a championship, and there have to be even fewer for why FOUR undefeated teams aren’t good enough.

FraudWatch Update

Here’s how my projected fraud teams are faring so far this year:

Projected Losses: 5+

1. Kansas State (currently 7-0)

The Wildcats will need to lose all but one of their final 6 games (including the bowl) to achieve full fraud status.  It’s not impossible with consecutive games against Big 12 heavyweights Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas up next.  If they lose all of those then a loss to Iowa State becomes viable while the bowl opponent gets a lot easier.  However, chances are that Kansas State avoids the 5-loss tier.

2. Texas Tech (currently 5-2)

A surprise win over Oklahoma has boosted the Red Raiders’ hopes, but the season still ends with 3 road games in 4 weeks, with the lone home date in that stretch against Oklahoma State.

Projected Losses: 3-4

3. Illinois (currently 6-2)

With unexpected losses to Ohio State and especially Purdue, the Illini are now likely to jump up to the 5-loss tier with a road trip to Penn State this week followed by home games against Michigan and Wisconsin.  A visit to Minnesota should end the regular season on the right note.

4. Georgia Tech (currently 6-2)

The Yellow Jackets are also on a two-game skid and have visits from Clemson and Virginia Tech ahead, as well as the season-ender against Georgia.

5. Oklahoma State (currently 7-0)

The Cowboys are in good shape, but games against Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma could trip them up.

Projected Losses: 1-3

6. Texas (currently 4-2)

7. Oklahoma (currently 6-1)

8. Wisconsin (currently 6-1)

Other Teams (0-2 Projected Losses)

LSU (8-0), Alabama (8-0), Stanford (7-0), Boise State (7-0), Clemson (8-0), Michigan (6-1), Houston (7-0)