Archives for November 2010

Presented without comment.

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

BcS

Part 2-What The Hell Is It And How Does It “Work”

What is the BCS? The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) is a system that was created in 1998 to ensure that the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in college football would always play each other for the national championship. It was also created to stop college football from having seasons with multiple national champions. The funny thing is, it hasn’t even done that. Please see USC/LSU 2003.

Hmmm…that sounds pretty awesome. Finally #1 and #2 will actually play for the title. It’s about time, right? Okay, how does the BCS ensure that the two best teams play each other?

It’s a three part system:

1. 1/3 of the ranking is made up from the Harris Poll. The Harris poll replaced the AP poll after the AP poll thought it was ridiculous to pick teams using polls to play a title game. The first poll will be released October 10, then weekly through December 5. A team’s score in the Harris poll will be divided by 2,825, which is the maximum number of points any team can receive if all 113 voting members rank the same team as Number 1. Example: 2,825 / 2,825 = 1.0. If a team receives a total of 113 voting points, an average of 25th place, their BCS quotient of this component would be .04. (1.0 / 25 = 0.04).

Sounds pretty legit, right. I mean, they use math and everything. The only problem is many of the voters in the Harris poll are former players or administrators, they have families and businesses and other interests. In other words, they don’t have time to watch 25 teams let alone 60 or so a week. How the hell can they possibly know who is the best team out there? And don’t forget…those former players and admins probably don’t have any bias…right? Here is an actual exchange between a Harris Poll voter and a columnist from the Oklahoman in November 2008:

Writer: Who is at the top of your poll?

Voter: Oh, I don’t know. Doesn’t really matter.

Writer: Really?

Voter: I think Alabama and Penn State will probably play for the national championship.

Writer: You do?

Voter: They’re the only undefeated teams, aren’t they?

Writer: Uh, actually, Penn State had a loss.

Voter: Oh, well…Those Big Ten teams have a lot of votes.

Keep in mind, this idiot is helping to determine who the best team in college football is, and I’m sure he isn’t alone.

2. 1/3 of the ranking is made up from the Coaches poll. A team’s score in the USA Today poll will be divided by 1,475, which is the maximum number of points any team can receive if all 59 voting members rank the same team as Number 1. Example: 1,475 / 1,475 = 1.0. If a team receives a total of 59 voting points, an average of 25th place, their BCS quotient of this component would be .04. (1.0 / 25 = 0.04).

Cool! More numbers and formulas and stuff. Must be totally legit! There is no way coaches would ever show any bias with these rankings, right? With all the time and effort that goes into preparing their own teams for battle, how on earth do they have time to watch all the other games going on during their own games and decide who the beset team is?

“I don’t know why we vote,” South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier said. “I guess we vote because college football is still without a playoff system. I really believe most coaches do not know a whole lot about the other teams.” Again, this makes up for 33.3% of the rankings.

3. 1/3 of the rankings comes from computer rankings, 6 to be accurate.

The computer rankings percentage is calculated by dropping the highest and lowest ranking for each team and then dividing the remaining total by 100, the maximum possible points. (Example: the 6 rankers have Team A ranked 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, and 4. Take away the 2 and 4 which leaves an average of 3rd place. The BCS quotient of this component would be 0.92. (23 / 25 = 0.92).

Peter Wolfe
Wes Colley
Sagarin
Seattle Times
Richard Billingsley
Kenneth Massey

These guys make up the 6 polls. Some of them actually post more accurate versions of their polls online.

Okay, so there should be no bias here, I mean they are computers. It’s not like Johnny 5 is calling the shots or even that stupid ass robot from Space Camp. So what could be wrong with the computer rankings?

Well  for one, none of the models use margin of victory. A 73-0 win is the same as a 7-3 win. So it’s a good thing political correctness has leached into a friggin computer, isn’t it? I mean, why input important data like how dominant a team is. Only 1 of the 6 computer rankings are made public and that means the other 5 open to corruption. Kenneth Massey said “it would take a lot of will power to refuse that, to be sure,” when asked if he would accept a million dollar bribe to doctor his standings. And this is the guy heading up 1/6th of the CPU rankings?

So we are also using a watered down and possibly corrupt computer ranking system that has been changed three times since it started.

There isn’t a single aspect of the BCS makes me believe that they get it right every year. Last year 5 teams finished the regular season undefeated. Bias coaches, biased and incompetent former players and other dumb humans  and flawed computer systems picked the two teams that competed for the championship of the sport we all love.

So how does it work? It’s pretty simple…It doesn’t.

OSU and Terrelle Pryor continue to claim that his early-October thigh injury was only minor. Yet, those of us who have been studying the quarterback for three years have noticed a significant dropoff in on-field performance during the last month, particularly in his rushing and scrambling ability.

Numerous times over the recent weeks, Pryor has been easily chased down from behind, or easily tripped up by light contact that he would have laughably shrugged off at any other point in his Buckeye career. Most notable was the his Boeckman-like play in the Wisconsin game. The way this year’s race for the NC game is evolving, hindsight will make that particular game so much more painful. What could have been had Wisconsin actually played against a healthy and mobile Pryor? It certainly dropped him out of Heisman contention.

Simply put, Pryor’s biggest asset – his elusiveness – simply disappeared in the 3rd quarter of the Illinois game, and didn’t start to make a return until last week at Minnesota.

The stats will tell the tale. We tabulated all of Pryor’s numbers from the season opener against Marshall to his early-3rd quarter injury against Illinois, and compared them against the numbers that followed his return in the 4th quarter of that same game to last week’s game against the Gophers. The number of quarters pre- and post-injury in which Pryor played are identical, as are nearly the overall number of snaps.

The difference is surprising:

Note the difference in YPC! The dropoff is twofold: Pryor has been sacked more often since his injury, and he’s no longer rushing for as many positive yards to make up any potential net loss.

At least he’s making up for it with increased passing numbers, right? Wrong. Overall the passing numbers have remained largely similar:

Overall, the total passing numbers are nearly the same. There is a dropoff in TD passes, but that’s it’s uncertain how much of this difference can be attributed to Tressel’s new approach of relying on Boom Herron, or with opponents respecting Pryor’s arm in reaction to his early season success. Note, however, that his accuracy has improved significantly – from 65% before the injury to over 70% afterwards. In fact, against Minnesota he hit 82%.

The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. Last week against Minnesota he not only saw the end zone for the first time in almost a half-dozen games, he also averaged 11 ypc. Clearly his performace against the Gophers seems to imply that he’s nearing full strength again. Time will tell as OSU heads into the annual November gauntlet.

Want some encouraging news? Even though Pryor’s been far less than 100%, OSU’s offense has steadily risen to #5 in FO’s S&P rankings – a much-respected predictor of offensive strength.

In the same week that the Buckeyes play against those kitty cats from State College they got a huge recruiting victory in the form of LB recruit Conner Crowell.

Conner Crowell is a 6’1″ 220 pound LB with good speed and size and is known for his ability to cover the pass and stop he run. Maybe he will play LB at OSU or maybe he will move to more of a STAR position. The best part is his two final choices were OSU and PSU and the kid from North Point High School in Waldorf, Maryland chose the Buckeyes and will become the 18th verbal commit for the 2011 class.

It should be mentioned that Maryland is prime recruiting area for PSU and it is nice to know we can go in there and pick off one of their recruits. In the picture posted it shows Crowell wearing a PSU shirt while standing next to PSU fans favorite recruiter Larry Johnson Sr. looks like they failed to seal the deal lol. Also, it helps the class a lot as Crowell is our first and only LB recruit in this class so far.

BcS

Part 1-The Regular Season

We are told that the beauty of the BCS is that the regular season IS the playoff, every game matters and two worthy teams are left standing at the end of the year to do battle on our beloved gridiron to settle once and for all who is the best damn college football team in the land.

This is a lie.

Ask yourself this question; is the college football regular season REALLY that great? Like most of you I’m a diehard Buckeye fan, and while you are pondering the question also take time to think about this:

Here is the Ohio State schedule and results from the month of September:

While you look at this, keep in mind the cartel behind the BCS has fed us for years that the BCS ensures that the college football regular season will be the most exciting sport in the country. If that is true then why is it the Ohio State 3^rd and 4^th string QB’s are seeing action in 3 out of OSU’s first 4 games? Is it really that exciting to watch Ohio State pummel East Lollipop Tech to the point that the 6th string running back is getting carries?

For me, it’s not.

I’ve sat in those stands and watched the crowd glaze over with boredom as Joe Bauserman hands off to Carlos Hyde while the Buckeyes are up by 40. Never in my life have I heard 105,000 people so quiet.

The reason Ohio State and every other big dog on the block schedules patsies is because of the BCS. See, it’s actually had the opposite effect than was being advertised. Most teams with the exception of USC and Ohio State and a few others have avoided one another during the regular season. Instead they schedule nothing but lesser schools from lesser conferences to ensure a shot at either a BCS title game or BCS bowl game.

The BCS does not guarantee the college football regular season remains exciting. It guarantees it to be mostly boring, highly predictable and for the most part far too average. Yes, of course there are amazing games throughout the season, but it could be so much better. Imagine a world where Texas isn’t afraid to play Alabama or Michigan is up for a battle against USC. This sport would have a far better regular season and far less drubbings if the BCS just went away in favor of a playoff. What if I told you that Ohio State could have a OOC schedule of Texas, Miami, Arizona and LSU and still have a shot at a national title even if they dropped 1 or 2 of those games? What set of games would you rather see:

OSU vs:

A. Marshall, Miami, Ohio, Eastern Michigan

or

OSU vs:

B. Texas, Miami, Arizona and LSU

If you answered A then you are a giant homer who most likely really isn’t that big of a fan of the game in the first place. Probably a closet bandwagon fan as well.

If you answered B then you recognize what COULD be. Imagine getting a SEC team to come up north for a change. Win or lose it would be a hell of a lot more exciting than watching a totally outmatched opponent collect a check.

For the bye-weekend, MannyCincy has made another video for our enjoyment, filled with highlights from the Big Ten season.