Search Results for: poll dancing

Poll Dancing: Week Four, or Seminole Wind

With each passing week, the task of assigning value to cumulative wins and losses becomes more and more difficult.  I don’t envy the coaches who contribute to the poll as they rack their brains each week to remember which grad assistant they assigned to fill out the ballots this year.

Last week, Florida State seemed to be punished a bit too much for losing to the #1 ranked team in the country, especially when compared to other teams who were dropped similarly for losing to far inferior opponents.  And this week, the Seminoles went and lost again and again they fell the standard 10 spots that had, up until now, been the standard sentence for not being the best team on the field on a particular day.

To be fair, FSU is the only 2-loss team still ranked, although they teeter precariously at #24.  They have also lost by 10 to the #1 team at home and by 5 to the #15 team on the road.  The teams they have beaten (Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern) are laughers, but at least they blew them out.

It’s hard for me to believe I’m taking up the mantle for a team that I despise to the point that they are essentially well-tanned Wolverines in my eyes, but that’s how terrible a job the coaches are doing.  Let’s take a look at some of the teams ranked ahead of FSU:

#23 West Virginia

This week, the Mountaineers lost to #3 (now tied at #2) LSU at home by 26, nearly double the combined margin of both of Florida State’s losses.  Yet, WVU dropped just 7 spots while the Seminoles have fallen a total of 19.  West Virginia’s wins?  1-3 Marshall, Norfolk State (which I’m pretty sure is a railroad college), and 1-2 Maryland, a team that just got BEAT. DOWN. by Temple.

#18 Arkansas

The Razorbacks also lost to a top team this week, the other half of that #2 tie Alabama.  Arkansas’ loss was on the road and only by 24, so they just dropped 6 spots.  The Razorbacks have beaten 1-2 Troy, 0-4 New Mexico (who just lost to Sam Houston State even though I’m pretty sure there is no state named Sam OR Houston), and 0-4 Missouri State (even though I’m pretty sure there is no state named Missouri).

#13 Texas A&M

Maybe you could make an argument for the SEC-bound Aggies since their loss this weekend was just a one-point home drop to #6 Oklahoma State.  For this, A&M fell only 5 spots.  The Aggies’ wins are against 3-1 SMU and 1-3 Idaho.

Here we have three teams who all lost to top-10 opponents and dropped no more than 7 spots in the poll.  Yet, when FSU lost to a top-1 opponent last week, they dropped 9 spots–and then another 10 this week for losing to a top-15 opponent.  None of these teams has a signature win against a good opponent, so there’s no “body of work” argument in play.  For some reason, the ‘Noles losses are being treated more harshly than similar losses by other teams.

This Week’s Laughing Stocks by Conference

ACC – Maryland, N.C. State, Virginia

Big 12 – Dan Beebe

Big East – Toledo/Syracuse replay officials, West Virginia, West Virginia

 

Big Ten – Minnesota

 

Poll Dancing: Week Three, or My Assistant Wrote This Subtitle for Me

There really is nothing like the pageantry and tradition of college football.  Of course, by “pageantry” I mean landscape-shattering conference realignment, and by “tradition” I mean the arrival of the autumn Notice of Inquiry.  There was also some football to be played, although no one bothered to tell Joe Bauserman.

In keeping with their general rule of not even faking it anymore, the Coaches’ Poll knocked Florida State down the requisite ~10 spots from #5 to #14 for losing to the #1 team in the country.  For the sake of comparison, Ohio State was dropped from #16 to #26 for losing to a team that still isn’t even ranked, and somehow managed to snag 53 fewer points in the poll than the offensively offensive Buckeyes this week.  On top of that, Michigan State handed Notre Dame their first win of the year and dropped from #15 to #23.  Those three losses couldn’t be any more different and yet they each get the exact same treatment from the coaches, who once again simply bumped everyone else up to fill in FSU’s vacated spot.

Like clockwork, Michigan joins the poll at #21 just so we can all pretend to be so very shocked when they tank in the Big Ten.  And the ACC gets some poll love this week with newcomers #22 Clemson, #24 Georgia Tech, and #25 North Carolina.  This is most likely because many voters thought they had been accepted into the conference as well.

This week’s poll is perhaps the most glaring recent example of how insulting the BCS system is.  There was clearly no thought put into the rankings this week, and the Florida State drop is particularly maddening.  Shouldn’t there be some consideration for scheduling big-name opponents?  There is no SOS consideration in the BCS formula except for the assumption that voters think about it when filling out their ballots.  Has that vanished from the coaches’ poll?  Was it ever there?

Expand, conferences, expand.  You’re our only hope.

 

Poll Dancing: Week Two, or Brian Kelly’s Strength of Schedule Seminar

It only took the University of Michigan (“The Harvard of Ann Arbor”) 259 years to duplicate Benjamin Franklin’s most famous discovery.  If Franklin were alive today, he would have likely been too busy scrawling a scathing letter of protest to Netflix for jacking up their streaming prices before he finished season 3 of The Office.  But if he had flipped over to the most-hyped matchup of two unranked teams ever, he would have discovered the electricity (yeah, that happened) of one Mr. Denard Robinson as he once again orchestrated a last-minute victory over a Notre Dame team that just needs a cupcake, y’all.

In actual ranked-team news, the Coaches’ Poll had little movement this week outside of several one-spot flip-flops that didn’t really seem to be based on anything.  The biggest gainers were Arizona State (who beat the erroneously-ranked Missouri in overtime), West Virginia (who beat the possibly-fictional Norfolk State) and South Florida (who beat Ball State, probably the best team in the state of Indiana).

That overtime loss by Missouri is the only one suffered by a Big 12 team so far.  By Kathy Miles’ estimation, that makes them like the most awesomest conference ever.  That must be why everybody wants out.

This weekend’s slate is light on excitement but there are several world-shocking opportunities for unranked teams hosting ranked opponents.  I’ll be surprised if at least one of these games isn’t an upset:

Boise State @ Toledo
West Virginia @ Maryland
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
Ohio State @ Miami (please not this one please)

Poll Dancing: Week One, or Brian Kelly’s Vocabulary Corner

As both of my readers are probably aware, I have a few firm, unwavering beliefs.  One is that there are actually two people who regularly read this feature, and another is that college football coaches are the last people who should have any influence over who is elected to the BCS title game outside of the actual coaching of their teams.  This is not because I don’t think coaches understand football; in fact, they understand it better than pretty much anyone else on the planet, except maybe pigskin wizard Fat Urkel.

The problem, oustside of the conflict of interest inherent in allowing those who stand to benefit from the system to have direct and substantial control over it with very little transparency, is that coaches simply can’t watch other games during the week.  All they know is who won and who lost and maybe a little bit about the opponents of those teams.

Which is why in the first poll of the year based on something other than complete conjecture, there are clear patterns.  If a team from the preseason poll lost, they dropped about 10 spots (Georgia and Oregon each dropped 10, TCU dropped 11) unless they were Notre Dame, who apparently gets double-whacked for being Notre Dame.  Or maybe their 20-spot plummet has something to do with this f***ing bulls***.

If you’re one of the teams that beat those ranked teams and you weren’t ranked before, then congratulations!  You are now!  But not too high, because you might lose next week, and we’re trying not to look stupid here.  Therefore, this week sees the arrival of #20 Baylor and #22 South Florida.  Neither of these teams plays anyone of interest for a few weeks, so they’ll make perfect candidates for the inaugural FraudWatch list (see below).

Now, if you were already ranked and beat a ranked team, you’re still going to move up but just a little bit because hey, we actually kind of got something right here, why mess with it?  Hence, LSU moves up two spots for beating Oregon and Boise State jumps up a notch for offing Georgia.  Potential season storyline:  You can only win in an ugly uniform if you you let mentally challenged chimpanzees design it.

Let’s say you had a nice win and were ranked abnormally low in the preseason poll because you have a big question mark like a new ex-baseball-playing starting QB (Wisconsin) or a new head coach (Florida, West Virginia) or both (Ohio State).  That’s good for a bump of around four spots.  Hey look, there’s prototypical random SEC team Mississippi State, let’s bump them up four spots too!

Don’t worry, traditional power teams who didn’t make the preseason poll and did nothing noteworthy over the weekend, you get to fill in the gaps!  Enjoy those shiny new numerical prefixes, #23 Penn State and #24 Texas!

Coming Soon: FraudWatch!

A couple of years ago, I came up with a way to help identify “fraud teams,” defining the term as teams who open a season with four or five wins and then end up with five or more losses.  Sometimes this can happen because of ill-timed injuries or other flukes.  But often, the teams just aren’t that good and have benefited from close wins and weak schedules.  Originally, I limited my list to teams that were undefeated in week five, but this year I’ll open it up to one-lossers as well, to increase my chances of making embarrassingly wrong selections.

Poll Dancing 2011: Pre-Season Pretenders

The Pre-Season Coaches’ Poll was released this morning, instantly closing off the BCS Championship to around 85% of FBS teams.  This year’s edition sets up Oklahoma and Alabama to face off for the title and I eagerly anticipate that matchup as I fondly look back on last year’s Alabama/Ohio State battle and 2009’s Florida/Texas bout.  Of the 10 teams ranked in the top two of this poll in the past five years, only 3 have actually made it to the title game.

Of course, figuring out who the best two teams will be before any games have been played isn’t easy, but even if we open up the range to teams in the pre-season top five, we only add 3 more to the list.  And in what has to be their worst job at guessing who’s good ever, last year’s actual title matchup featured the pre-season #’s 11 and 23.

I’m not even going to pretend that I know how the coaches fill out their ballots (although here is some footage of Chip Kelly making his selection), but I am going to pretend that I know which picks they got wrong.  Here are my picks for which teams in the Top 10 will lose at least 2 games this year.

#2 Alabama

The Tide faces four road games against teams ranked in the pre-season poll:  Penn State, Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn.

#4 LSU

The Tigers open with a neutral-site game against Oregon.  Even if LSU pulls it off, they still have consecutive road games against Mississippi State and West Virginia and host Florida in game six.  The back half gets a little easier but still features a visit to Alabama two weeks after taking on Auburn.

#5 Florida State

After a laughable two-game head start featuring Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern, the Seminoles host Oklahoma, who will likely still hold the top spot coming into the game.  Last year’s visit to OU was the first really big non-conference game FSU has played in a while and the Sooners blasted them in that one.  The next week they travel to take on Clemson, a team they struggle with on the road and then follow up a bye week with two more road games (albeit against Wake Forest and Duke).  The season closes out with a road game against the rival Gators, looking for some revenge for last year’s 31-7 FSU win.

#7 Boise State

Unfortunately for the Broncos, moving to the Mountain West isn’t going to give them any extra benefit of the doubt.  If they can go unbeaten, they may have a shot at a title spot, but they’ll still be subject to the mid-major One Strike And You’re Out rule.  That strike could come as early as week one when they take on Georgia in Atlanta, or a little later with two consecutive road games against old WAC foe Fresno State and an improved Colorado State.  But the real trouble spot is a visit from TCU followed by a trip to San Diego State.

#8 Oklahoma State & #9 Texas A&M

These two are together because they play each other on September 24th and unless Texas decides otherwise, one of them has to lose.  If Oklahoma State wins, they still have consecutive road games against Texas and Missouri, a visit to Texas Tech and a home game against a possibly undefeated Oklahoma ahead of them.  If the Aggies win, they go immediately into a neutral site game against Arkansas and a road trip to Texas Tech.  Later, they get Oklahoma on the road and host Texas to close out the season.

#10 Wisconsin

If Russell Wilson clicks in a system that isn’t really designed for his skill set, the Badgers could be in for a magical season.  If not, an early game against Oregon State could prove tricky.  More harrowing is the season-ending gauntlet featuring 4 road games out of 6, including back-to-back trips to Michigan State and Ohio State.  Penn State visits to wrap things up.

The Breakdown

Here is the number of teams from each conference featured in the poll:

SEC – 8 (66% of conference)
Big 12 – 5 (50% of conference)
Big Ten – 5 (42% of conference)
Mt. West – 2 (25% of conference)
Pac 12 – 2 (17% of conference)
ACC – 2 (17% of conference)

There are no teams from the Big East or any mid-major conference outside of the Mt. West included in the poll.

Poll Dancing: 2010’s Last Dance

(This is a guest series by MotSaG reader Jason Nafziger. He’ll be taking a weekly look at the college football polls and pointing out the absurd, the laughable and the head scratchers. Please note that Jason is not talking about the BlogPoll. Or my ballot to the BlogPoll.)

Once again, the world of college football fails to implode, and the BCS pats itself on the back for arriving at an obvious conclusion: the only two undefeated AQ teams will play for the title. The feeling that the system “got it right” is not entirely unfounded, but it does require one very large assumption: that all AQ conferences are equal. And, of course, that’s just not true.

It’s not that Oregon and Auburn are undeserving; it’s that there are other teams who are also deserving. Can anyone honestly say that the Big Ten’s three co-champions (each with just a single loss, and two of them with a loss only to one of the others) did not accomplish as much as the champions of the Pac-10 (where only 3 other teams managed more than 6 wins) or the lop-sided SEC (Auburn essentially played in a 6-team conference)?

If schedule strength is the argument against allowing undefeated TCU to play for the title, why does it suddenly become irrelevant when comparing an undefeated team to a one-loss team? Of course, that leads to the unanswerable question of how to measure schedule strength (is the Miami team we played in week 2 the same one that lost to South Florida?) and we’re back to where we started, wondering why TCU isn’t allowed to prove themselves.

It will come as no surprise what I think the answer is. To anyone who thinks that I am a knee-jerk playoff proponent, let me assure you that I have considered this topic from all sides. I used to argue on the side of the BCS (albeit that was before they inexplicably dropped the Quality Wins calculation). But I have come to realize that any system that arbitrarily denies an undefeated team a chance to play for a title is inherently anti-competitive.

The ultimate question for me becomes this: If TCU (or Boise or whoever) truly does not deserve the national title, then there is no way they would win a 16-team playoff, so why not let them try? I can’t answer it.

The Poll Dancing Hypothetical and Totally Awesome Playoff (Final):

First off, let me say that since my playoff is based on the Death To The BCS format, Dan Wetzel’s final bracket deserves a plug here. There is a little difference, since he used the BCS rankings in the place of a theoretical selection committee, while I’ve been using the AP poll. The WAC ended in a three-way tie, and I (like Wetzel) awarded the auto bid to Nevada (it’s arguable, but Hawai’i got destroyed by Boise, and Nevada beat Boise head-to-head while losing close to Hawai’i). Boise still makes it in thanks to the AP poll though, so it’s all good.

(1) Auburn vs. (16) Florida International
(2) Oregon vs. (15) Miami (OH)
(3) TCU vs. (14) UCF
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Connecticut
(5) Stanford vs. (12) Nevada
(6) Ohio State vs. (11) Virginia Tech
(7) Michigan St. vs. (10) Boise St.
(8) Arkansas vs. (9) Oklahoma

Whether you prefer mine or Wetzel’s (or whatever an actual selection committee would produce), it’s hard to argue that this isn’t approximately one zillion times more interesting than what we’re getting in January. Even the potential (but hardly guaranteed) second-round rematch of conference-mates Auburn and Arkansas is exciting, considering how their first meeting went.

The Breakdown (full Top 25): 24% SEC, 20% Big 12, 12% WAC, 12% Big Ten, 8% Mt. West, 8% Pac-10, 8% ACC, 4% C-USA, 4% Big East

I broke down the mid-majors by conference this time to make a point. The WAC is tied for third with the Big Ten for ranked teams. Combined, three mid-major conferences have more ranked teams than the combined Pac-10, ACC, and Big East. Yet, the undefeated Pac-10 champ is playing for the title while the undefeated Mt. West champ is not. The WAC did not even get a BCS bowl bid.

Poll Dancing: Week Thirteen

(This is a guest series by MotSaG reader Jason Nafziger. He’ll be taking a weekly look at the college football polls and pointing out the absurd, the laughable and the head scratchers. Please note that Jason is not talking about the BlogPoll. Or my ballot to the BlogPoll.)

Well, the BCS lucked out again with Auburn’s rally from a 24-point deficit to win the Iron Bowl by a single point. Now the Tigers will try to beat South Carolina again for the SEC title and, of course, a coveted spot in the BCS championship game. Last time, the Gamecocks held a 6-point lead going into the fourth quarter, where they proceeding to turn the ball over on all four of their drives. South Carolina is on a three-game winning streak that includes road wins over rivals Florida and Clemson.

Oregon got off to a slow start in their Black Friday game as well, trailing Arizona by 5 going into halftime before exploding for five touchdowns in the second half. Next is rival Oregon State, and a loss to the 5-6 Beavers would be a shocker. This one is going to be ugly.

And then Boise State gave the BCS the final gift of the weekend, dropping an overtime heartbreaker to Nevada and eliminating virtually all ill will unless at least one of the top two teams loses (and TCU gets passed over, which would probably happen.) That sound you hear is the evil chortle of a corrupt system getting away with it again.

The Poll Dancing Hypothetical and Totally Awesome Playoff (v. 1.4):

(1) Oregon vs. (16) Florida International
(2) Auburn vs. (15) UCF
(3) TCU vs. (14) Connecticut
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Northern Illinois
(5) Stanford vs. (12) Virginia Tech
(6) Ohio State vs. (11) LSU
(7) Michigan St. vs. (10) Oklahoma
(8) Arkansas vs. (9) Boise St.

Lots of movement in our much more intriguing playoff scenario in light of the Boise, LSU, and Alabama losses. The Big Ten moves three teams into the top half, UConn gets in on the party, and FIU is looking at one of the longest road trips imaginable (while NIU has one of the shortest). And, honestly, who doesn’t want to watch that Arky-Boise game?

The Breakdown (full Top 25): 24% SEC, 20% Big 12, 20% mid-major, 12% Big Ten, 12% Pac-10, 8% ACC, 4% Big East

Thanks to Nevada’s win over Boise and Northern Illinois sneaking in at #25 (plus Iowa’s inexplicable loss to Minnesota), these numbers change for what seems like the first time in a month. The Big East finally returns with West Virginia, who is essentially a placeholder for whoever the eventual conference champion is.

Poll Dancing: Week Twelve

(This is a guest series by MotSaG reader Jason Nafziger. He’ll be taking a weekly look at the college football polls and pointing out the absurd, the laughable and the head scratchers. Please note that Jason is not talking about the BlogPoll. Or my ballot to the BlogPoll.)

As expected, there was very little movement this week. Nebraska fell out of the top ten thanks to a 9-6 loss to Texas A&M that was full of thrills—on the Huskers’ sideline anyway. This weekend could get interesting though, starting with Black Friday, when three of the four remaining undefeated teams will face off against ranked opponents, two of them on the road. Get your cold turkey sandwiches ready…

First, #2 Auburn will travel to #11 Alabama for the Iron Bowl and the day’s best chance for an earth-shattering upset. Should the Tide pull it off, Auburn will still have the SEC championship game to boost its rating prior to bowl season. Even the tamest possible outcome—a one-loss Auburn getting the nod over unbeatens Boise and TCU—would still trigger a minor BCSpocalypse.

Next #1 Oregon hosts #21 Arizona. The Ducks spent the last two weeks thinking about their miserable offensive performance in a win over Cal. Meanwhile, the Wildcats rank 12th nationally in scoring defense. This is probably a long shot and Oregon has a better chance of losing next week on the road against Oregon State, but the ultimate goal for BCS-haters is for both of these teams to lose at least one of their next two games.

Finally, #4 Boise State takes on #19 Nevada. Save for a 6-point loss to Hawai’i, Nevada has been basically crushing the same teams as Boise so far this season. Their win over Cal is not as impressive as the Broncos’ triumphs over Virginia Tech and Oregon State, but they did slaughter the Bears by three touchdowns. A Boise loss isn’t as intriguing as losses for the other two teams, but picking one (or two) from a slew of one-lossers would be a PR nightmare for the BCS. There are currently eleven 0- or 1-loss teams and no pair of 1-loss teams plays each other, meaning that all eleven could end the season with one loss (although TCU is pretty much a given to remain unbeaten).

The Poll Dancing Hypothetical and Totally Awesome Playoff (v. 1.3):

(1) Oregon vs. (16) Florida International
(2) Auburn vs. (15) Pittsburgh
(3) TCU vs. (14) UCF
(4) Boise St. vs. (13) Northern Illinois
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Virginia Tech
(6) LSU vs. (11) Michigan State
(7) Stanford vs. (10) Oklahoma St.
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Alabama

Some shuffling around here, proving that a playoff is already more interesting than the BCS. The Buckeyes’ opening game shifts to last year’s champ Alabama. Wisconsin slides up to take on Virginia Tech, while LSU drops down face Michigan State.

The Breakdown (full Top 25):
24% SEC, 20% Big 12, 16% Big Ten, 16% mid-major, 12% Pac-10, 12% ACC, 0% Big East

One thing that strikes me is that these numbers have remained virtually unchanged for weeks even though the individual teams have been different. It’s almost as if there’s some inherent regional bias built in to the system…

Poll Dancing: Week Eleven

(This is a guest series by MotSaG reader Jason Nafziger. He’ll be taking a weekly look at the college football polls and pointing out the absurd, the laughable and the head scratchers. Please note that Jason is not talking about the BlogPoll. Or my ballot to the BlogPoll.)

Sorry the Dance is so late this week; I fell asleep during the BCS standings show Sunday night and just woke up. Not only was there absolutely no movement in the Top 10, but the top three teams are off this week, so the only hope for a major shake up would be Cam Newton being declared ineligible, which is becoming more of an inevitability with each passing day. My question is: If this happens before the season is over, what becomes of LSU, whose only loss (so far) would have to be forfeited?

The Poll Dancing Hypothetical and Totally Awesome Playoff (v. 1.2):

(1) Oregon vs. (16) Florida International
(2) Auburn vs. (15) Pittsburgh
(3) TCU vs. (14) UCF
(4) Boise St. vs. (13) Northern Illinois
(5) LSU vs. (12) Virginia Tech
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) Michigan State
(7) Stanford vs. (10) Alabama
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Nebraska

Again, very little change here. Florida International is technically leading the Sun Belt, so they get the automatic bid over Troy. The seeding of the last four teams is shuffled a bit, my best guess despite three of them having no AP votes. Also, Alabama and Michigan State swap places, creating a first round Big Ten showdown (to go with the almost-Big Ten showdown between OSU and Nebraska).

The Standings:

1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Boise State
5. LSU

Despite a few close calls, the order stands pat from last week, and there isn’t likely to be any change next week either.

The Breakdown (full Top 25): 24% SEC, 20% Big 12, 16% Big Ten, 16% mid-major, 12% Pac-10, 12% ACC, 0% Big East

Poll Dancing: Week Ten

(This is a guest series by MotSaG reader Jason Nafziger. He’ll be taking a weekly look at the college football polls and pointing out the absurd, the laughable and the head scratchers. Please note that Jason is not talking about the BlogPoll. Or my ballot to the BlogPoll.)

The Poll Dancing Hypothetical and Totally Awesome Playoff (v. 1.1):

(1) Oregon vs. (16) Troy
(2) Auburn vs. (15) Northern Illinois
(3) TCU vs. (14) Pittsburgh
(4) Boise St. vs. (13) UCF
(5) LSU vs. (12) Virginia Tech
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) Alabama
(7) Stanford vs. (10) Michigan State
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Nebraska

A little bit of shuffling from last week, and LSU and Michigan State replace Utah and Oklahoma in the field, giving the Big Ten and SEC three berths apiece. The Pac-10 has two and all other conferences have only their guaranteed champion slots. Remember that this exercise uses the AP poll to seed teams and award at-large berths, so an actual playoff might differ slightly, especially the last at-large spot held by Alabama (this would be Oklahoma State if I used the BCS standings).

The Standings:

1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Boise State

No change in order, but TCU’s decisive victory over a good Utah team moved them closer to Auburn than Boise State. I don’t think the remainder of their schedule can add any juice to jump up unless one of the top two falters though. These are the only undefeated teams left, and Auburn is going to have a tough time remaining perfect with Georgia, Alabama and presumably the SEC title game still to go.

5. LSU

All you need to know about the Tigers’ big win over Alabama is that Les Miles eats grass on a regular basis.

The Breakdown (full Top 25): 28% SEC, 24% Big 12, 16% Big Ten, 16% mid-major, 12% Pac-10, 4% ACC, 0% Big East