Ohio State vs Wisconsin Preview

OSU and Wisconsin have brewed themselves a strong rivalry in recent years. Of the past ten matchups between Wisconsin and Ohio State, half have ended in upsets. The other half have contributed to the outcome of the Big10 championship race, in one form or another. This includes last year’s game, when the top-ranked Buckeyes suffered a special teams meltdown that gave 18th-ranked Wisconsin the victory.

The Buckeyes have been very clear: This date has been circled on their calendar for an entire year. Wisconsin. Payback. Night game. Script Ohio under the lights. Homecoming. Old school Big10 pro-style power. Nike Pro Combat uniforms.

Adventures in Optimism
Fans of both teams well know that, in recent years, schedule and ranking are meaningless. Overconfidence in this game invites psychological pain. Concerned about Wisconsin ranking in the top six nationally in both offense and defense? Well, OSU was ranked there last year and it didn’t give them an advantage.

Of course, the comparisons to past years can only go so far. Ohio State is under new management, and predicting what a Fickell-led, full-of-freshmen team is capable of when we only have Tressel senior-led teams against which to compare is tenuous at best.

But, for a moment, let’s allow ourselves some room for optimism. Bollman aside, Ohio State’s offense may very well be better than we all think. Until the injury to Miller caused a team-wide meltdown, they were moving the ball at will against Nebraska.

The rushing performance against Illinois has not gotten the attention it deserves. Sportswriters, bloggers, and armchair quarterbacks have focused on the poor passing game and ignored the more impressive issue: that Ohio State ran where it wanted, when it wanted, against a solid Big 10 defense, that knew what was coming and had put ten - TEN - defenders in the box in a futile attempt to stop it. Excluding the sacks (which were passing downs), OSU only had two negative plays rushing the ball all afternoon.

I don’t care if OSU was rushing against JoeBob’s Tire and Lube University – it’s almost impossible to run against a box stacked with ten defenders. And yet OSU did it for the entire afternoon… with no magic, no trickery.

OSU is 19-1 when Boom Herron gets 55 yards. Do you think Boom will get 55 yards this week? I’m betting he can.

The bye week came at the perfect time. Coaches have been reporting that OSU will unveil a new short-passing game to better complement Miller’s strengths. Against Illinois, Bollman called 12 passing plays; that number is expected to rise significantly.

For all of Wisco’s success over recent years, it should be noted that Bret Bielema’s success in “big” games is really poor. He’s 1-5 against top 10 teams (the lone win courtesy of OSU’s special teams meltdown last year), and more often than not tends to cave when the stakes are high.

Have I mentioned that the Badgers’ special teams belong in special class? Wisco is ranked 98th in field goal accuracy and 118th in covering punt returns.

Adventures in Reality
If ever a beatdown looked better on paper, this is it. The stars aligned for Wisconsin this year. They have a team full of veteran leaders and star skill players, who get to play the (statistically) worst offensive OSU team in history for what should be a cakewalk to the B1G East title (no I’m not using that other term).

By this point it’s a broken record: OSU’s defense is good enough to keep the team within reach of any game this year. The poor offensive coaching, combined with a team full of first-year starters and #3 backups, is maddeningly unpredictable and what will determine a close OSU win or a humiliating blowout.

Jump for joy if:

• OSU’s special teams and/or defense score
• Miller completes double-digit passes
• Two OSU RBs get 100+ yards

Doom is nigh if:

• Wisconsin gets up big early
• OSU’s offense is pulling three-and-outs in the second half, leaving the defense on the field for Wisconsin to wear down

I think I’d rather predict an upset and be wrong than predict a Wisco annihilation and be right. Therefore, based on matchup potential and rivalry issues only, I’m going for the upset: OSU 27-24.

Wisconsin By The Numbers

Presented, always, without comment. But not without emoticons: :/

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

Typo or Coming Out Party?

The incomparable Phil Steele has posted his predictions for this week’s Top 25 contests and one particular stat jumps right off the screen:

That’s right, either one of the North Coast keyboards needs an airblast in the numberpad or the world’s foremost college football analyst thinks the Buckeyes are going to drop bombs on the Badgers like the Gap Band.  (Don’t hold the Points column against him, Phil is actually picking a 24-23 OSU upset.)

Poll Dancing: Week Eight, or Two Tickets To Paradise

BCS supporters–both of them–breathed a little sigh of near-relief this weekend as Oklahoma and Wisconsin joined the ranks of the beaten, inching the system that much closer to “getting it right” another season.  If you’re a BCS-hater like me, it’s tough to decide what to cheer for right now, as there are two options to get the most anti-system vitriol spewing next offseason.

Option One: Too Much Awesome

The Badgers and Sooners were supposed to help us out here, but there’s still hope.  The ACC’s Clemson remains perfect and has a reasonable schedule leading up to the conference championship, probably against Virginia Tech.  The Big 12 has no title game and two lossless teams remaining in Oklahoma State and Kansas State (they play November 5).  The Pac-12′s Stanford has challenges in USC and Oregon, but will have a relatively easy conference championship game if they can get there unblemished.  The SEC will almost certainly produce a undefeated champ as perfect divison-mates LSU and Alabama (also facing off November 5) probably aren’t sweating the eventual East champ too much.  On top of that, mid-majors Boise State and Houston will try to make their case should they continue their winning ways.  Expect the Broncos to gain some popular support.

The bottom line here is that 6 undefeated teams, including 4 from AQ conferences, would be too much for even the most devout BCS apologists to spin.  At the very least this situation would demand a four-team playoff or Plus-One style setup.  And that’s if you leave out the mid-majors again.

There really is no best outcome for the BCS here.  No matter who gets left out, they’re going to be livid and they’ll have a good point.  Whoever loses the game will be considered unworthy of their spot (as usual), and no matter how the other teams are matched up, the season will likely end with multiple unbeaten non-champions.  That will be ugly for BCS PR.

Option Two: Too Much Mediocrity

Let’s keep this scenario realistic (even though no unbeaten AQ teams and an unbeaten Boise is probably the worst thing for the BCS) and say that either LSU or Alabama wins the SEC at 13-0.  Sure, there could be a misstep elsewhere but it’s pretty unlikely with these two.  Next, Boise is probably going undefeated, but that’s not even necessary for things to get messy.  Aside from those two, every other unbeaten with a chance (sorry, Houston, no one cares about you… yet) could easily lose a game or two down the stretch.  Clemson visits Georgia Tech this week and South Carolina to finish the season, but their best shot at losing is an ACC title matchup with the Hokies.  Oklahoma State still has the season-ender against the Sooners, and Kansas State has Texas A&M still upcoming.  Also, of course, those two have to play each other.  Stanford has their aforementioned tilts vs. the Trojans and the Ducks.

In this scenario, we finish with the 13-0 SEC champ, 12-0 Boise State and a whole bunch of one-loss teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, any one of five Big Ten teams with big ticket-selling names, and whichever of LSU/Alabama doesn’t win the SEC.  This would be similar to 2007 with its mess of one- and two-loss teams clogging the top of the rankings but with the added Boise State argument.

At least this scenario can end with just one unbeaten national champion, but only if the BCS system allows Boise to play in the big game, something that will bother fans/coaches/administrators of AQ conferences who will cite the Broncos’ easier path to perfection.  Expect the volume on that argument to hit new levels if Boise gets blown out in that contest.

Either of these options would at least be damaging for the BCS and I have to think that Option One would be the worst.  There just aren’t a lot of legitimate arguments for why an undefeated team doesn’t deserve to play for a championship, and there have to be even fewer for why FOUR undefeated teams aren’t good enough.

FraudWatch Update

Here’s how my projected fraud teams are faring so far this year:

Projected Losses: 5+

1. Kansas State (currently 7-0)

The Wildcats will need to lose all but one of their final 6 games (including the bowl) to achieve full fraud status.  It’s not impossible with consecutive games against Big 12 heavyweights Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas up next.  If they lose all of those then a loss to Iowa State becomes viable while the bowl opponent gets a lot easier.  However, chances are that Kansas State avoids the 5-loss tier.

2. Texas Tech (currently 5-2)

A surprise win over Oklahoma has boosted the Red Raiders’ hopes, but the season still ends with 3 road games in 4 weeks, with the lone home date in that stretch against Oklahoma State.

Projected Losses: 3-4

3. Illinois (currently 6-2)

With unexpected losses to Ohio State and especially Purdue, the Illini are now likely to jump up to the 5-loss tier with a road trip to Penn State this week followed by home games against Michigan and Wisconsin.  A visit to Minnesota should end the regular season on the right note.

4. Georgia Tech (currently 6-2)

The Yellow Jackets are also on a two-game skid and have visits from Clemson and Virginia Tech ahead, as well as the season-ender against Georgia.

5. Oklahoma State (currently 7-0)

The Cowboys are in good shape, but games against Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma could trip them up.

Projected Losses: 1-3

6. Texas (currently 4-2)

7. Oklahoma (currently 6-1)

8. Wisconsin (currently 6-1)

Other Teams (0-2 Projected Losses)

LSU (8-0), Alabama (8-0), Stanford (7-0), Boise State (7-0), Clemson (8-0), Michigan (6-1), Houston (7-0)

Blogpoll Ballot, Week #9

Men of the Scarlet and Gray Ballot – Week 9

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	–
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	–
3	Boise St. Broncos	3
4	Stanford Cardinal	3
5	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	–
6	Clemson Tigers	3
7	Arkansas Razorbacks	3
8	Oregon Ducks	–
9	Oklahoma Sooners	-5
10	Michigan St. Spartans	3
11	Kansas St. Wildcats	3
12	Wisconsin Badgers	-9
13	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-1
14	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
15	Virginia Tech Hokies	-4
16	Houston Cougars	–
17	Texas A&M Aggies	6
18	Texas Tech Red Raiders	–
19	Penn St. Nittany Lions	5
20	Cincinnati Bearcats	–
21	Michigan Wolverines	-1
22	USC Trojans	–
23	Arizona St. Sun Devils	–
24	Texas Longhorns	–
25	Georgia Bulldogs	–
Dropouts: West Virginia Mountaineers, Illinois Fighting Illini, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Auburn Tigers, TCU Horned Frogs

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

JB’s Greatest Hits

Yakety Sax + Marcia Brady getting hit in the nose = Joe Bauserman in a nutshell.

H/T to the Buckeye Blog.

Poll Dancing: Week Seven, or Garbage In Garbage Out

The first official BCS standings of the year are out, which means it’s time to kick the hatred up a notch.  By pure coincidence I’m sure, this was also released this week.  (Are these guys seriously going to try to make us buy a slightly updated book every year?  When did EA open a publishing house?)

Instantly, the #4 ranking of Oklahoma State stands out.  The Cowboys are ranked #6 in both human polls, but are the top team in the computer average, winning four out of the six included models.  Since I know that the humans who program the computers (let’s stop pretending that these algorithms are magically untainted by bias) are not allowed to consider margin of victory, I have to assume that these numbers are almost entirely schedule-based.  Except that doesn’t explain it either.

LSU, ranked #1/2 in the human polls is #3 in the computers, behind Oklahoma State and Alabama.  LSU holds a 13-point victory over Oregon, a team that has won each of its other 5 games so far by no fewer (and usually quite a bit more) than 14.  LSU also claims the only win over West Virginia, a 26-point dismantling of the Mountaineers on the road.

Oklahoma State’s signature wins are a 1-point win over Texas A&M and a 12-point victory over Texas.  Each of those teams has two losses, as well as one win of five points or fewer.

Further, in the human polls, Oregon is ranked #8/9 and WVU is #14 while Texas A&M is #18/19 and Texas is not even ranked.  However, on the computer-assisted human side, Oregon is #12 (with a high of 7 and low of 18), WVU is #21 (18/25), Texas A&M is #18 (10/22) and Texas is #19 (11/UR).  And yes, the same poll that has A&M at 10 has Texas at 11.  That would be the Massey poll, which also includes such hilarious classics as “#5 LSU” and “#20 Stanford.”

And that’s just LSU.  The Cowboys are also ahead of Alabama, a soul-crushing machine that dismisses opponents like Andy Rooney dismisses poor people; Wisconsin and Stanford, who have been making cupcakey early schedules look even worse; and Oklahoma, who will fortunately be able to settle it on the field this December.  (Chancees are, they’ll settle it well: over the past 5 years, the Sooners have beaten the Cowboys by an average of 16 points.)

And then there’s Boise State.  Many will stop here and start soapboxing about the Broncos’ schedule.  And I get that, but with the exception of conference-mate Colorado State, every team that Boise has played is currently at least tied for the top spot in their own conference or division.  Considering the high risk/low reward prospect for big-name teams and the scheduling difficulty that presents for Boise, this is essentially the most they could possibly do in their current situation.  And yet, even if they run the table, which would include a win over TCU, they will still need the dreaded “help” to get a shot at the title.

The BCS system seems to have determined that this year’s championship will be the result of a contest between the Big 12 and the SEC (at least one of these conferences has appeared in 11 of the 13 BCS title games played).  The Big Ten takes a notable hit from the computer portion of the standings, with three Big 12 teams and three SEC teams checking in before #11 Wisconsin, the highest-rated Big Ten team.  Two more SEC teams appear before the second Big Ten entry.

This is not to say that these teams and conferences aren’t deserving, but the methods of selection at work here are inscrutable at best, and perhaps even suspect.  You all know I want a playoff.  This year still has the potential to end with seven undefeated teams, including the champions of five of the six AQ conferences.  One would hope that even three of those teams plus an unbeaten Boise would lead to enough disgust with the system to inspire schools to seek legitimate change.

Blogpoll Ballot, Week #8 (draft)

Men of the Scarlet and Gray Ballot – Week 8

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	–
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	–
3	Wisconsin Badgers	–
4	Oklahoma Sooners	–
5	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	–
6	Boise St. Broncos	–
7	Stanford Cardinal	–
8	Oregon Ducks	6
9	Clemson Tigers	-1
10	Arkansas Razorbacks	3
11	Virginia Tech Hokies	6
12	Nebraska Cornhuskers	3
13	Michigan St. Spartans	5
14	Kansas St. Wildcats	-2
15	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
16	Houston Cougars	4
17	West Virginia Mountaineers	4
18	Illinois Fighting Illini	-9
19	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	-9
20	Michigan Wolverines	-9
21	Auburn Tigers	–
22	USC Trojans	–
23	Texas A&M Aggies	–
24	Penn St. Nittany Lions	–
25	TCU Horned Frogs	–
Dropouts: Baylor Bears, Arizona St. Sun Devils, Texas Longhorns, South Florida Bulls

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Ohio State vs. Illinois Recap

Three yards and a cloud of BOOM!

The Ohio State Buckeyes hunkered down and punched the Illinois defense in the face. Illinois took 51 shots to the face, gut and kidneys to a tune of 211 yards. Coming into the game Illinois had the 9th ranked rush defense in the country. It was a battle of wills and the Buckeyes won it. Herron had 114 yards rushing and a touchdown. Hall backed up Herron and added 56 of his own.

The backbreaking score came from Jake Stoneburner on a strike thrown by Braxton Miller. Miller only threw the ball 4 times, completing only one pass, but it was a big one. On 3rd and 5 Miller used playaction and hit Stoneburner in the middle of the end zone for a 17 yard touchdown.

The Ohio State defense, like the running game also came to play. Coming into the game Illinois used a balanced attack and scored an average of 34 points per game. After watching the OSU defense implode last week vs. Nebraska it was great to see them play a complete game against a potent offense. John Simon and Jonathon Hankins DOMINATED all day long and combined for 17 tackles, 6 tackles for loss and 2 sacks.

Ohio State held Illinois to under 300 yards of total offense. Coming into the game Illinois was averaging well over 400 yards per game. Illinois all world wide receiver was held scoreless and only muster 80 yards on 8 catches. Jenkins was also responsible for a drive stalling fumble. That fumble set up the Miller touchdown pass. Scheelhaase lead Illinois with 49 yards rushing, the rest of the ball carriers for Illinois were each held under 35 yards rushing.

Bradley Roby and Travis Howard had picks and Roby’s theft help set up Boom’s first touchdown this year. This was a much needed win vs. a rival on the road against a pretty good football team in Illinois. This should give Ohio State a much needed emotional boost going into their bye week in preparation for a primetime home game vs. hated Wisconsin.

Illinois Live Game Chat

Join us around 3:15 PM EDT for the live-in game chat where we’ll inevitably hurl four-letter words (not me, of course) at Jim Bollman, his Walrusball ineptitude and, if it comes to it, at B-deck Bauserman.

PLEASE don’t let it come to that.

Week Seven Open Thread

Previously, week seven would pretty much mean the season was more than half over. But, with the expansion of the BEE ONE GEE and the addition of a championship game, we can delay the half way point by just a little more.

So let’s get together and make fun of Michigan and Michigan State!

Update (1:15 PM) – So there’s a quarterback controversy brewing in Michigan? Can you really be a Heisman candidate if someone is taking over your position while you’re still on the field?

Update (2:48) – Why can’t Chris Spielman do every game I watch? I could listen to him all day long. I also love when he struggles to hide his contempt for anything Michigan.

Ohio State vs Illinois Preview

This is what the first half of the year has felt like for Ohio State players, coaches and fans:

Ohio State has been very average this year. There is no other way to put it. There is plenty of blame to go around. From interim head coach Luke Fickell to offensive guru (cough, cough) Jim Bollman to bright red ginger Joe Bauserman. For me the biggest reason for OSU’s struggles thus far has been this:

RB Jordan Hall
RB Boom Herron
WR Corey Brown
WR DeVier Posey
OL Mike Adams
OL Corey Linsley
OL Antonio Underwood
DL Chase Farris
DL Solomon Thomas
DL Nathan Williams
DL Melvin Fellows
LB Scott McVey
LB Conner Crowell
DB Corey Brown
DB Travis Howard
DB Donnie Evege
QB Terrelle Pryor
WR James Jackson
WR James Louis
LB Ejuan Price
LB Dorian Bell
LB Jonathan Newsome

That is 21 players that have been suspended, injured, transferred or booted off the team. That is a TON of talent not to have. The coaches have certainly had their issues and will most likely be replaced, but this year’s Ohio State football team simply put has a lack of talent…at least compared to most years. That is an average of 3.95 stars per player when they were being recruited, folks…that’s a lot of talent and a big reason why OSU is struggling.

Not only is this team lacking a huge amount of talent, it’s got to be mentally drained after going through the offseason from hell that has bled into the season with the continuing onslaught of off the field treats the OSU players continue handing out. It has also lost its legendary coach and is dealing with the everyday incompetence of an offensive coordinator who doesn’t seem to have a clue out there.

I have stolen this secret OSU offensive weapon from deep within the bowels of the interweb…this is what Bollman uses to call his plays:

However this week we will finally be able to watch Boom Herron run the “Dave” series as he makes his return after a 6 game suspension. Oddly enough it was his game last year vs. Illinois that catapulted Herron into being OSU’s work horse. Herron scored 16 TD’s last year and ran for over 1000 yards. Herron, Hyde and Hall will carry the offense with a wounded Braxton Miller likely to start. Reports have Miller getting all the action with the 1′s and apparently he is not limited physically. I can’t see Ohio State running Miller too often due to his injured ankle. We may see Miller use some play action off runs he has typically made this year and look for a couple shots deep.

Make no mistake…OSU will try to establish the run on Saturday. If not…there always this guy:

On to Illinois…

They have a pretty good squad this year. They are 6-0 for the first time in like 2000 years or something. Nathan Scheelhaus has been outstanding in his sophomore season and is running a spread option attack to the tune of 34 points per game. He runs and throws well and has a big-time playmaker at wide receiver in A.J. Jenkins who has 7 touchdowns already this year. Three backs split carries along with Scheelhaas to form an effective option attack. Something OSU struggled with vs. Nebraska in the 2nd half.

Defensively I expect Illinois to follow the MSU model of blitzing the hell out of OSU QB’s, whoever they may be. Nebraska didn’t really pressure OSU at all, especially in the 1st half and nearly got blown out of their own building. I don’t see Illinois following that model.

For me this comes down to two things: Will Braxton Miller play and will he be able to use is very gifted legs. I’d also love to see him throw a few more times than 8 through 3 quarters. If Miller can make a couple plays with his legs, a couple plays with his arm and stay healthy I think OSU can win this game. I also can’t wait to see what Boom Herron does. Will he be rusty or will he carry the load vs. Illinois 9th ranked rush defense?

Oh yeah…and they are playing for this thing:

Prediction:

Illinois: 30
OSU: 24

Until the coaching staff can show they have a full game in them, I don’t trust’em…and I don’t think the players are far behind me…

Dominick Clarke Suspended

It’s the October 14th edition of “OSU Suspension Friday!!”

Via BuckeyeExtra:

Backup cornerback Dominic Clarke won’t accompany Ohio State when it plays at Illinois after being charged with disorderly conduct for allegedly shooting a BB gun from the overhang of a dormitory restaurant on Sunday night.

“It’s in the university’s hands,” coach Luke Fickell said. “There’s not a whole lot we can talk about with it. It’s our decision — my decision — that we won’t have him on the trip with us.”

At this point the team is starting to resemble a clown car of endless suspensions…

Illinois By The Numbers

Presented, always, without comment.

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

Nebraska Recap #OccupyWalrusBall

With four minutes and forty-six seconds to go in the third quarter Saturday night, Ohio State was up 27-13 against Nebraska.  The game was almost exactly two-thirds over when starting QB Braxton Miller went down with an ankle injury.  For no readily discernible reason, Joe Bauserman was still considered the next best option and suddenly, the game was turned upside-down.

Don’t worry, People Who Are Concerned About The Fragile Emotions Of A 26-Year-Old, this isn’t about Bauserman.  Yes, he is completely ineffective as a quarterback, striking fear in no one besides the sideline photographers and random passers-by who find themselves dodging, Neo-style, his weapons of mass incompletion.

No, this is about the remarkably bad play-calling put in place in Miller’s absence.  Play-calling that was even more maddening in light of the downright inspired gameplan up until that point.

This is about 99% of the offense being controlled by 1% of the coaching staff’s brain power.

This is Occupy Walrusball.

Now, you may be tempted to blame the defense for the poor tackling and bad coverage that fed Nebraska’s furious comeback.  And that’s valid; the D certainly had their fair share of missed opportunities.  But when you look at that nightmare sequence again, you’ll see that Ohio State had three consecutive drives that each took just a minute or less off the clock in the fourth quarter.  Two of those drives occurred when the Buckeyes either had the lead or were tied.

With 11:35 remaining in the game and a 27-20 lead, Jim Bollman called a drive in which Bauserman (who was 1-5 for 13 yards at that point) threw the ball twice, including on first down.  The running back on that drive was Jordan Hall, despite the fact that Carlos Hyde had been far more effective the entire game and already had a huge TD run under his belt.  Hall gained 2 yards on second down.

Had Bollman done what first-year Husker OC Tim Beck did when his team finally took the lead and ran the ball on every play, he could have at the very least run an extra two minutes (give or take, depending on actual snap time and play duration) off of the game clock.  If it’s Carlos Hyde doing the running, then it’s a safe bet that he even converts a first down or two (his first rush on the next drive went for 12 yards, his next for 4, then Bauserman threw the pick) and the drive is extended further, perhaps even resulting in some points.  Even if we failed to score, it would have put a serious damper on Nebraska’s comeback, forcing them into more predictable play-calling.

It’s unfathomable to me that anyone with a two touchdown lead would be calling pass plays late in the game at all, let alone calling pass plays for a quarterback who lost his starting job because of ineffective passing.  How can any defense be expected perform to their potential with virtually no time to regroup or strategize?  How much more can we take?

What Is Our One Demand?

Fire. Bollman. Now.