Championship Week – Florida – Open Thread
January 8, 2007 by 9 Comments
The longest 51 days EVER have finally come to an end, placing us a meager 12+ hours from kick-off of the BCS National Championship Title Game between your (and our) Buckeyes of The Ohio State University and the Gators of the University of Florida. If today isn’t your least productive day of 2007, tomorrow most certainly will be. I’m still waiting for the Mayor to shut the city down on Tuesday so everyone can recover.
good stuff to read. You won’t be doing anything else today, will you? I’ll be the first to admit, though, I’ve read enough analysis to make one’s eyes bleed. It’s all good stuff, believe me, but I’m through. I just want the game to be here, like now!
But by now, you’ve read the articles, read the blogs and forums, and you’ve already decided what color your “2006 National Champions” football T-shirt is going to be (mine will be gray). Now’s the time to put your money where your mouth is. It’s the last prediction thread of the season. Bring your A-game, everyone.
Of course, we’ve got Vegas’ take on the game. They’re still giving the Buckeyes 7 points with an over/under around 46 points. So what say you? What’s the final score? Are going over or under with the points?
Urban Meyer supposedly thinks Chris Leak is just as good as Troy Smith. That’s like comparing Superman to the Shoveler. What was he thinking? How many more yards will Smith account for than Leak? (o/u 100 yards)
Little Animal Laraunaitis has been taking the ball away from everyone this season. Does he get an INT against the Gators?
Finally, as this is the last game for a lot of seniors, which senior (excluding Troy, of course) has the biggest impact on the outcome of the game?
el Kaiser’s predictions
Final Score: OSU: 31 UF: 17
Troy is going to razzle and dazzle while Leak is continually frustrated by OSU’s D. Troy smith accounts for 101 yards more, over.
While Little Animal has a big game, he does not intercept a pass. He will, however, be responsible for at least one turnover.
Quinn Pitcock is the senior that has the biggest impact. If Quinn and the boys can shut down the run, forcing Florida to pass more than they want, it will be huge. He’ll also be bringing the pain with his pass rush. Pitcock will be HUGE.
sportsMonkey’s predictions
Final Score: I think Florida will “earn” 14 points, while OSU will finish between 28-35. Florida could score a late TD against OSU’s freshman class after the game is out of reach. So I’ll split the difference and predict 31-17, OSU (although that number seems to indicate Florida will score a FG, which they can’t seem to do this season).
Leak vs. Smith: Under 100 yards difference for two reasons: I expect Leak to play catch-up, inflating his numbers, and I expect to see Tressel give Zwick a graduation present with a series or two behind center (assuming the game is out of reach).
Little Animal: Leak is the worst QB (INT-wise) OSU has seen this year, so I think he gets an INT tonight.
Which senior?: The always-underappreciated Stan White, Jr. will sacrifice his body for Smith, Pittman, and Wells one last time. Honorable mention: Pitcock and Roy Hall
Zeke’s predictions
We’ve already had two 31-17 predictions and I would agree that the 10-14 point difference is about right. The Buckeye’s have too many weapons for the Florida defense to stop. I have to admit I was tempted to predict a low scoring affair, but when all is said and done the Buckeyes will get their points and Florida will get a late TD and 2-point conversion to make it seem respectable.
Final Score: OSU: 35 UF: 22
100 yards is a lot; however, Troy Smith plays his best in big games. Smith ends his Buckeye career with more than 350 total yards as compared to less than 250 for Chris Leak, Over.
I suspect that little animal will be doing a lot of spying during the game, especially when Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin are in the game. LA will contribute mightily to the game, but not with an INT.
John Kerr is going to be huge! In all seriousness, Brandon Mitchell is the senior that has the biggest impact. Even though Laurinaitis does not get an INT, I do expect the secondary to get a couple. Mitchell will get one and have another solid yet quiet game.
Battle of the Blogs — BCS edition
January 8, 2007 by 4 Comments
Today, the MotSaG team was honored to provide an article for the game-day edition of CSTV’s Battle of the Blogs.
We were a little nervous about the question we drew, not only because our fellow – OSU – blogging – brethren have set the bar high this week, but also because our topic is a pretty hard one to argue.
The debate topic we received:
This was a pretty hard thing to argue. Who really knows? In the end, we decided to wimp out and have a pair of legendary SEC and Big Ten icons argue it out for us.
Check out the transcript of their conversation after the jump.
Ooooh… it’s almost heeere…
January 6, 2007 by 2 Comments
This should help you get excited for Monday. What happened the last time Tressel went to AZ for a championship?
This:
Announcers are Paul Keels and Jim Lachey.
H/T to (who else?!?): Jeff
Wells to transfer?
January 6, 2007 by 3 Comments
I noticed people are coming to the site in search of information about Maurice Wells transferring to another school at the end of the year. Wells is apparently struggling with the transition from being a prep school all-star to being relegated to the third string. He’s considering a transfer to an ACC or SEC school. He’s done the right thing and said he won’t make a decision until after Monday’s game, but I think it’s a foregone conclusion, especially with Brandon Saine coming in next year. Maurice sees the writing on the wall.
Maurice is quoted in the Columbus Dispatch as saying:
“But just being on a team is not all I want. I want to play and hopefully make it to the next level, or at least have a chance. And if I feel I can’t do that at Ohio State I would definitely leave.”
This would be the second running back to leave this year. Erik Haw left before the season started.
No overconfidence here
January 6, 2007 by 4 Comments
If you haven’t heard, Florida is supposed to win on Monday.
Have you got that yet? Flip on a BCS (or any other bowl) game during halftime, or visit internet articles and forums, and you’ll hear prognosticators running through the same drill:
- Florida will win because OSU can’t handle the Gators’ speed
- Florida will win because they are the equivalent of the underdog 2002 OSU Buckeyes squad
- Florida will win because of the superiority of the SEC
- Florida will win because Heisman winners rarely perform well in bowl games
- Florida will win because it has the best defense that OSU has ever seen
- Florida will win because OSU had 51 days off
- Florida will win because everyone is assuming OSU will win
Wait, what?!? So… the media wants it both ways? They all want to pick Florida to win, but justify it by saying that there’s an “assumption” that OSU will dominate the Gators? Oxymoronic, if you ask me.
Let’s do the rundown.
Speed
…is present in both teams. Florida has some turf burners, that’s for sure. But OSU’s known for its uncanny speed, too; for example, the combined speed of G2, both of which are on the field at the same time. Running a 4.3 is running a 4.3, whether you’re from Cleveland or Florida.
Underdog status
…doesn’t exist here for either team. This game is not a mirror image of the 2002 championship game, mostly because 2006 OSU isn’t anywhere near as dominant, overconfident, and cocky as the 2002 Hurricanes were. That game truly was David vs. Goliath. Coker’s boys trickled into Arizona, having won about three dozen straight games, with a very laissez faire attitude, guaranteeing victory and mocking the pitiful Buckeyes. No way Tressel allows his players to think or behave that way. Trust us: it’s been all business for six weeks straight. Also, the Buckeyes entered that game 13-0; while Florida has a loss.
And this year, Florida is a powerhouse; no question about it. Both teams match up against one another very, very well. Specifically, both teams happen to be strong in areas in which the other is weak. This indicates that the game might be a high-scoring affair. For instance, OSU’s defense has had difficulty with mobile quarterbacks and the spread option this year.
There are absolutely no similarities between these teams and the teams from the 2002 game, no matter how much some Gator fans want to play the underdog role.
SEC is better!!
Nope. Where did this argument come from, anyway? From a bunch of ten-year-old boys on a schoolbus? The best teams of the major conferences are always pretty similar in strength. Parity is too widespread nowadays, and most big programs use similar practicing and conditioning techniques.
At any rate, the SEC is 0-3 against Big 10 this season. The Big 10’s #3 & #4 beat the SEC’s #3 & #4 in last week’s bowl games. Head to head, that’s pretty telling, but I still maintain that you can’t use the “conference is better than yours” argument to predict victory or defeat. Not when you give two great teams a month to get ready for each other.
Heisman winners underachieve in bowl games
The logic goes like this: Because the Heisman winner is running around to awards ceremonies, staying in hotels while his teammates practice without him, the team’s performance suffers. Maybe so, but as was reported earlier this week (no link yet), Smith has only missed one day of practice. And there’s no way Tressel would keep Smith off the practice field; it’s the only way his first team defense can get ready for Leak & Tebow.
OSU hasn’t seen a defense like Florida’s
Now we can get into some real analysis.
OSU’s offense has played against the following great defenses:
- Michigan (1st in rushing defense, 8th in scoring, 9th against first downs), Texas (2nd against the rush, 16th against first downs), and Penn State (10th against the rush, 11th in scoring).
Against those three teams, OSU racked up 1,104 yards of offense and 11 touchdowns. And this includes its worst-of-the-year performance against Penn State during a heavy downpour that slowed both offenses. Including that game, OSU’s offense averaged 368 yards in those contests; without it, 425 yards. Florida’s defense (statistically) matches up relatively close to these three teams.
Let’s also consider individual talent. OSU’s offense has played against the following defensive superstars:
- All three finalists of the Bednarik Award (Posluszny, Connor, Woodley); two finalists of the Jim Thorpe Award (Leon Hall, Aaron Ross); one finalist of the Butkus Award (Posluszny); three finalists of the Lombardi Award (Posluszny, Woodley, Blalock); and one finalist of the Nagurski Trophy (Hall).
After Monday’s game, OSU will add Reggie Nelson to that list. And this doesn’t count the finalists/winners on OSU’s team (Pitcock, Laurinaitis, Smith, et. al) that the OSU offense practices against every day.
Ohio State had a crippling 51-day layoff
This argument might have a smidge of meat to it. However, I’m not thinking that any “rust” OSU might have come Monday is going to be enough to ensure a Florida victory, for two reasons:
(1) Tressel. He has repeatedly shown time and time again an ability to get a team ready for a big game. OSU teams are never over- or under-prepared. It’s enough of a track record to have confidence, at any rate. Besides, earlier this year there was a nine-month layoff between the Notre Dame and Northern Illinois games, and the OSU offense picked right up where it left off in January.
(2) When people speak of “rust,” they actually mean “timing,” which is more important in the rushing game than the passing. Expect Tressel, like he has all season long, to use the pass to set up the rush.
Final Thoughts
The OSU squad, full of veterans, is not as likely to be nervous or intimidated at the colossal hype & emotion of the game. This is the third #1 vs. #2 game OSU has been in this year alone.
Florida has an impressive defense, but it will not stop OSU from putting up a significant amount of points on the board. Reggie Nelson cannot cover Ginn, Gonzo, Hall, Robiskie, Hartline, Small, Pittman, Wells, Nichol, and Ballard, seven or eight of which are on the field for every play. (And that doesn’t count Troy Smith’s own feet, either). OSU will score some points.
The “unknown” of the game is how well Florida’s offense and OSU’s defense match up. Turnovers will be a huge factor… and I think the game’s outcome could hinge on them. Florida is 78th overall in throwing interceptions, and OSU is tied for second in the nation for most interceptions gained.
Therefore, whether or not the Gators earn a second national title will totally depend on whether or not Chris Leak and Tim Tebow can (1) avoid mistakes and (2) outscore Troy Smith and his countless offensive weapons. Period.
Enough for now! We’ll be doing our predictions on Monday’s Open Thread, so check back then. In the meantime, you might find it interesting to peruse Vegas’ considerations on the teams’ trends going into the game.
Who will stand with us?
January 5, 2007 by 6 Comments
You’ve probably heard by now that the Michigan bloggers (and fans) are bailing off the Big Ten Bandwagon to shack up with the Gators from the Dirty South, leaving their Big Ten brethren high and dry. We understand they’re still stinging from the brutal drubbings they received from two of the better teams in the country. We know that not beating Ohio State in the last three tries really hurts. And we know it’s going to absolutely KILL THEM to see Troy Smith and Sweatervest hoist the crystal pigskin over their heads in exultation after the dismantling of the Gators. But, guys, can’t we, for three hours on Monday, be friends? Some of our best players are from Michigan (see: Vernon – Gholston’s – Arms). But we understand if it hurts too much. We’ve been there.
(A side note to Wolverine Nation: You think 1-5 hurts? You’d still have to lose another five more before you reach the bottomless pit that OSU fans endured during the Cooper era. So trust us, it can get much, much worse than this.)
So Michigan refuses to be on board, out of spite. So be it. If Michigan fans want to cozy up with the Flavor-of-the-Month, that’s their choice. But who is going to stand with us? Buckeye Nation doesn’t have many friends. We’re mercilessly ridiculed and no one comes to our defense. We’re accused of wrongdoing and crimes against humanity for simply loving our team. Sure, a few Buckeye fans are cavemen, but let me assure you, we’re not all powdered doughnut-winging freaks. So who’s it going to be?
Come on Notre Dame fans! We know there’s no love lost between us, but your enemy’s enemy is your friend, right? That 2005 soap opera between Shrek and Donkey AJ Hawk and Laura Quinn did nothing but give tons of extra media attention to Brady. It was a year ago since the Fiesta Bowl. We can put that behind us now, right? Surely the Michigan game stung more, right? Come join us break the hearts of thousands of Wolverine fans. It’ll be fun!
Where’s the rest of the Big Ten? Don’t leave us hanging. Wisconsin, what say you? You’re the only Big Ten team that totally owns Tressel. Cheer us on, so that we can make sure two Big Ten teams end up in the top five of the BCS standings. This is our league, our legacy. Penn State, we gave your coach his record-setting victory a couple of years ago, and your victory over OSU helped you to finish #2 in 2005. Plus, we gave him a place to change his shorts in his moment of most dire need. Let’s give it up!
We are the Big Ten. OSU’s continued presence in the BCS system is bringing home a crapload of money for all of us to share. Together we stand. We were rooting for you in your time of need, now it’s time to join in the good fight. If Michigan really wants OSU to lose that badly, then maybe we can kick them out and invite West Virginia to join us or something. Enough with Canada’s Alabama anyway, right?
As Rob Van Winkle once said, “drop the zero and get with the hero!”
MotSaG update
January 3, 2007 by Leave a Comment
First off, a big thanks to the sportsMonkey for providing some great stuff while the rest of the MotSaG staff slacked off. Now we’re all back from our extended holiday break, and we’re fired up for a certain bowl game just a few days away. I myself just got a new HDTV so I am eagerly anticipating my first Buckeye game in High Definition.
CSTV.com is doing their “Battle of the Blogs” again, and we’ve been tapped to contribute. Our piece will be going up next Monday, but they’ve already posted the first matchup. Poor Pfef was matched up against the blogging-wunderkind Orson Swindle, but I think we can safely say that Pfef not only held his own, but wrote a pretty darn good piece. We’re hoping to present a good argument ourselves, but our subject is a little more involved.
Besides football, how about those Buckeye cagers? After watching the Florida game last month, it was obvious that the team is still gelling, still finding its identity. One of the commentators last night made a good point about this team versus last year’s team. While this year’s team is probably much more talented than the team last year, last year’s team had great chemistry. Dials quietly led the team while the other players fed off each other. This year’s team has so much fire power that sometimes it doesn’t look like their playing cohesively as a team. I think the Big Ten season will work out those wrinkles, but once that chemistry is established this year, look out.
And enough can not be said about the way Oden and Conley are playing. The whole “Thad Five” are playing up to the expectations, but those two are not playing like freshmen. Oden is a manchild and Conley has some disgusting moves. They are fun to watch, especially when they’re beating Indiana. Oh how I loathe thee, Indiana!
We hope to have some time over the next few days to look at matchup with the Gators. I haven’t been watching the line since this game was set, but it seems like a lot of the talking heads are starting to bail off the OSU bandwagon, shacking up with the Gators. Maybe they seven week layoff has made people forget about what the Buckeyes have done. This is the team who averaged over 36 points a game (Florida averaged 28.8). Did they forget how the OSU defense that had to replace NINE starters only allowed 10.4 points (Florida gave up 13.5). Did they forget who won the Heisman? They can go with who they want. We know who we’ll be backing come January 8th.
“There was no extra benefit”
December 28, 2006 by 2 Comments
Spaghettigate looks to be drawing to a close.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer is reporting the NCAA’s Bob Williams said, “If it’s determined that money did not go to either family, then one would deduce that there was no extra benefit.”
Therefore, since the money from the fund raiser went to a nonprofit Pee Wee football league, it appears Beanie and Pittman are in the clear.
This has been a silly, frivolous waste of time. Two families living close to (or below) the poverty line have a one in a million shot to see their sons play for a national championship, so their friends and neighbors gather together to help find a way to help them afford the trip. Next thing you know, someone finds an obscure passage in the telephone-book sized NCAA rulebook that forbids it, so the players have to leave and the families have to give the money away.
This is exactly the type of thing that the NCAA should allow. A community helping its members is a pretty noble thing. This type of heavy-handedness is exactly why collegiate boosters have so much power & temptation over star players. “C’mon, take it. You know the NCAA won’t allow your family to raise money to come see you play.”
All this has done is give the media another chance to throw darts at OSU and give UM fans something else minor to add to their “zOMG teh OSU iz criminalz one!!11eleventyone!” lists.
I’d also bet that this situation has hardened Pittman’s stance on returning for another year. Would you come back to deal with this kind of hilarity, if you had an opportunity to be free from it?
UPDATE:
OSU’s investigation is complete; they’ve declared that no wrongdoing occurred.
Antonio Smith has hurt shoulder
December 22, 2006 by Leave a Comment
Bad news for Buckeye fans… starting cornerback Antonio Smith has been seen wearing an arm sling.
No details as of yet. It’s a good thing the title game is 17 days away.
