Ah! That time of year again, when we drink the Kool-Aid and list reasons why those pathetic children-of-siblings from that state up north might win this weekend’s matchup.

So sit back, relax, wrap your logic in a handkerchief and place it gently aside. Here are a few reasons why the criminally insane student-athletes from Ann Arbor might pull off the victory on Saturday:

• OSU’s not running a true spread this year.** Michigan has actually played really well against teams that don’t have a mobile quarterback who uses the spread option.
• Hart has been saving the last useful 10% of his gimpy leg for this game. I truly believe Hart would be willing to sacrifice his knee – and his future NFL career – for a victory against the Buckeyes.
• Speaking of injuries, it’s clear that Carr has saved Henne and Hart for this game. Whether that translates into “healthy” or “slightly-less-unhealthy” remains to be seen. But Carr’s coaching decisions for the past month have been very OSU-centric; which is a departure from his behavior the past several years.
• Henne/Hart/Long are 0-3 against their superiors from down south, and all have publicly stated that they returned this year specifically to beat Ohio State.
• I realize that statistics do not necessarily predict a victory for UM this weekend, but an 0-4 stretch is pretty unlikely where the teams are 50/50 over a period of 60 years.
• Folks like Mallet/Minor/Brown – who we should expect to get serious playing time – are not the same as their losery predecessors. They may actually be motivated to start a new tradition, one that involves not being spanked like red-haired stepchildren every year.
• It’s probable that this is Carr’s final game at the Big House. At 6-6 against OSU, there’s no chance for a tie overall in the series. He either ends his career with a winning record against his rivals, or ends it with a losing one.
• UM beat Illinois; Illinois beat OSU.
• Big Ten officials are once again refusing to call any penalties against OSU opponents. They’ve even avoided following NCAA-stipulated rules that require review of plays resulting in change of possession, even when those plays affect the outcome of the game.
• Speaking of penalties, if there’s one thing we’ve learned from UM football the past two seasons, it’s that Shawn Crable is allowed to do anything he wants and only get 15 yards for it, even if ejection is called for.
• Hart’s leadership. He’s quite possibly the most cantankerous player in college football, but you’d be lying if you said you didn’t want someone like him on your team. The only reason UM isn’t 0-11 right now is because Hart has put the team on his back. If #20 played defense, kicked field goals, and called plays, Michigan would be a juggernaut.
• No doubt you’ve noticed by now that this is a list of intangible reasons why UM will prevail. That’s because on paper, Michigan has no statistical advantage over the Buckeyes in any phase of the game (with the exception of the above UM > Illinois > OSU argument). However, this rivalry has always been more about the intangibles than anything else. Historically, the lower-ranked team usually wins the game. That favors the Wolverines this year.

Are there any other reasons that you can think of for why UM will win this game? (Later this week we’ll look at things from the Ohio State side, so keep your comments here limited to possible advantages for Big Blue.)

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**Last year, Brian called me out for claiming that UM would fold under a spread offense, having not encountered one all season long. The past year of me being proven right aside, some think that a spread offense is a QB in shotgun with five WRs. It is not. A true spread offense is a run-first scheme, using multi-receiver sets, guards that pull and trap effectively, receivers that block, and a QB that uses a zone read option to either run himself or get the ball to someone who will. Florida runs a spread. Oregon runs a spread. Troy Smith and Vince Young ran spread offenses. This year, OSU does not (…although, you’d have to think Tressel – like the rest of us – noticed Boeckman’s 225 all-purpose yards from last week…).

Illinois brings a strong 7-3 team (3rd in the Big10) to the ‘Shoe on senior day, seven days before the Big 10 Championship game. (Yes, the Big 10 has a championship game, just like the SEC. We don’t play ours every year, but we do most years.)

Are the Bucks going to get caught looking ahead to Michigan? Keith says “nope.” Eleven Warriors postulates that Illinois’ chance to win might have gone down with Matta’s loss earlier this week.

This is the first week where Tressel’s gameplan is absolutely transparent. Stop Mendenhall, and you beat Illinois. Zook knows that the OSU front seven is the best he’s going to face this year, and will probably try to keep them honest by going vertical a few times or using some trick plays out of a spread option setup. Watch the Vest counter by mixing formations back and forth between the even and odd man fronts.

I drove by the Horseshoe yesterday, and the crews were setting up the lights. With a 3:30 kickoff, this game – the final home game, the final game for the seniors (and some star juniors, no doubt) – will be played mostly after dark. The night has been very good to OSU this season.

This week’s questions:

• Final score?
• Will Mendenhall be kept under 100?
• Will Wisconsin beat Michigan?
• Do you think this is the last time that juniors Robiskie, Jenkins, Laurinaitis and Gholston will play in the ‘Shoe?

sportsMonkey’s answers:
Final Score? – OSU 38-20
Mendenhall? – 85 yards net, thanks to a few TFLs.
Wisco vs. UM? – OSU tenderized Wisco last week; too many starters are now injured to be a threat to the Wolverines. UM would have no excuses for losing this game. That being said, it is Camp Randall in November…
Juniors? – Personally, I think it depends on how the season ends. Trip/victory in the BCS title game, and they’re probably all gone. I’m thinking Jenkins and Robiskie will head to the NFL no matter what happens, though. Word on the street is that A.J. Hawk is trying to convince the Little Animal to stay.

Sylvester Yon-Rambo’s answers:
Final Score? – OSU 45-6
Mendenhall? – 53 yards no way he gets through the line. I hear Mendenhal and ARMS will just arm wrestle for yardage all game long.
Wisco vs. UM? -I have said all week that Wisky will get this win. scUM is just plain awful even in wins they look bad. Wisky sucks too but it is at home and they have to have this win for them to get the capital one bowl lol.
Juniors? – I dont think it matters that WE WILL win the BCS NC game. I believe this is the year we dont lose all our talented juniors. The mere fact that little animal has discussed all of them coming back next year in interviews is enough for me to believe they will all return. Of coarse I was 110% that Gonzo and Pittman would return. (Oh Pittman what a horrible decision you made) Hopefully that will be all they need to know they must comeback 1 more year. If Pittman isnt enough to convince them I have lined up a few FAT ENVELOPES to be stuck into thier lockers or coat pockets by some “Car Dealers” form the Toledo area. So if they get caught I can say I bet they were scUM fans those stupid car dealers from Toledo always are.

el Kaiser’s answers:
Final Score? – OSU 34-23
Mendenhall? – 101, over. I’m going against the grain here, but Mendenhall is all they’ve got. If he doesn’t get his hundred plus, they don’t score a touchdown.
Wisco vs. UM? – Michigan wins close, 24-21, but at what cost? Henne or Hart suffers an injury that hampers him greatly for next week.
Juniors? – I feel like Jenkins and Gholston are gone, no matter what happens. As much as it pains me to say, I think Little Animal is gone when we win the MNC. Robiskie seems like the kind of kid that sticks around.

Zeke’s answers:
Final Score? – OSU 33-16
Mendenhall? – under, but I think he will come close.
Wisco vs. UM? – Either way the Big Ten Title will be decided next week. That being said I think Michigan wins a close game.
Juniors? – I also believe the end of the season will have an influence on who stays and who leaves. As for now, I think Jenkins will leave early and all of the others will stay.

How many of you knew that it was Illinois, and not Michigan, that used to be OSU’s primary rival? The annual matchup with Michigan didn’t really become a full-blown rivalry until WWII. Prior to that era, however, the Buckeyes and the Illini were among the fiercest rivals in college football. They met on the last game of the season until 1933, and have been on each other’s schedule every year but two (2003 and 2004).

To this day the teams pass back and forth the “Illibuck,” the second-oldest trophy in the league. They originally passed back and forth a real turtle, but its death in 1927 caused them to modify the tradition. Since then, nine wooden replicas of the original Illibuck turtle have been carved, each with the scores of the games on its back. Yes, Illy Illibuck even has a Facebook page.

Bonus tradition goodness: Honor societies from both schools used to ritualistically share a “special” peace pipe at halftime. I assume the tradition stopped due to the lack of twinkies and BBQ potato chips in the vending machines at the ‘Shoe.

The tables list the opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Illinois

Table 2: Ohio State

Oohh!! Oooh! Bonus table goodness this week!! The values in Table 3 indicate a team’s overall performance, percentage-wise, against the average numbers the common opponents typically allow.

For example, in the table below, Illinois scored an average of 24% more points on these common opponents than what those opponents typically allow, while the Illini defense held these opponents to 27% fewer points than what they were typically used to, and so on.

Table 3: Performance against what Common Opponents Typically Allow

Notes:
At first glance, it seems the teams perform similarly to one another. That’s if you skim the Average and Total rows in Tables 1 and 2. However, compare the games themselves. Look at how Illinois performed against Penn State (7 point differential) to how OSU performed against that same team (20 point differential). Wisconsin is very similar: the Illini won by less than a touchdown, where OSU beat the Badgers by three touchdowns. Moral: the Illini’s performance against hapless Minnesota seems to be skewing its averages.

Also notice the scoring trends. (It’s why we list the teams chronologically.) Both teams’ offenses are scoring more points each game. FWIW.

Check out the Yards Allowed column in Table 3. Illinois is actually allowing opponents 6% more yards than what they typically average. It hasn’t come back to bite them, though, as their offense has performed well enough to cover for the weakness.

Anything else jump out at you?

…since Ohio State last lost a conference game.

On October 8, 2005, OSU lost a frustrating matchup against Penn State. The following week, the Buckeyes started a conference winning streak that has lasted until now.

A Big Ten record 20 straight conference victories. Eleven of those earned against ranked teams.

The last time Ohio State lost to a Big Ten opponent:

• The NHL lockout was ending.
• New Orleans was still draining water after Hurricane Katrina.
• Ted Koppel was planning his retirement.
• Movies like Capote, Into the Blue, and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory were playing in theaters.
• Matt Leinart was on pace for what everyone assumed would be a second Heisman Trophy.
• Mike Hart and Chad Henne were only 0-1 against the Buckeyes.
• Chris “Beanie” Wells was in high school.

If you extend the record and include the entire 2005 season, and all the non-conference and bowl games since then, Ohio State is 32-3.

32-3.

About those three losses? 2005 Penn State, who finished ranked #3 in the country. 2005 Texas, who finished ranked #1. And 2006 Florida, also #1.

To sum up:

• Three seasons.
• 35 opponents (15 of them ranked!!)
• 32 victories.
• Only 3 losses, to two national champions and a #3 squad.

And it’s not going to end soon, folks: There are still three more games to go in the season. And depending on the number of juniors that jump to the NFL, OSU’s 2008 team figures to be even stronger than in years past.

It boggles the mind as to why some still question Ohio State’s #1 ranking.

If OSU beats Illinois next week, Michigan locks up a spot in the Rose, no matter what happens in their final two games. (Even if they lose for the rest of the season, they’re in to the Rose with a Buckeye win over Illinois).

Explanation? So long as OSU wins this Saturday, Michigan is in with a win over the Bucks (Big 10 champs, tiebreaker rules), or a loss against the Bucks (OSU would vacate the spot for a trip to New Orleans).

Granted, the latter assumes that the Rose would select UM in the Bucks’ place – which technically, they don’t have to do. But history shows that’d be a near lock.

What is more satisfying about this? That a Big Ten team who suffered the most humiliating loss in college football history has a shot at representing the conference in the grandaddy of all bowl games? Or that it will happen only if OSU allows it to happen?

In short, it’s not Lloyd Carr, or Chad Henne, or Mike Hart, or Jake Long that control Michigan’s destiny. It’s Jim Tressel that does. How awesome is that?!?

If the Bucks lose to Illinois, it gets a bit messier for UM. Win out and it’s the Rose, drop one and it could be the Capital One bowl.

As for the Buckeyes, there are four possible bowl games:

Beat Illinois, Beat UM = BCS title game
Lose Illinois, Beat UM = Rose
Beat Illinois, Lose UM = BCS at-large – or – Capital One (unlikely)
Lose Illinois, Lose UM = Capital One – or – BCS at-large (unlikely)

Sing it with me, Michigan fans**: O-H!!

** ‘Cmon… Your boy Braylon Edwards has been singing it…

UPDATE:
Some commenters have pointed out two important things I totally neglected… first, UM must finish in the top 14 to have an at-large shot at the Rose, and secondly, the BCS has a stated policy of avoiding matchups in bowl games if possible.

In short, that means it’s pretty unlikely that UM will get to the Rose after all. The only paths to Pasadena for Carr’s team are (1) for OSU to lose one of its last two games while UM wins out, or (2) for Oregon to self-destruct and lose the Pac10. Any other scenario occurs, and it’s likely the Capital One bowl for the Wolverines. (Where they’ll play the LSU/Tennessee loser, probably.)

Time to move on from everything good and bad about Penn State. Here are the numbers for this weekend’s OSU/Wisconsin matchup.

The tables list the opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Wisconsin

Table 2: Ohio State

Notes:
Again, the OSU defensive numbers stand out. The Silver Bullets only allowed between 45-47% of the numbers that the Badgers’ defense gave up. Wisconsin has a good secondary, ranking 3rd in the conference against the pass. However, they have a rather pathetic front seven, ranking 8th against the rush (in between Purdue and Northwestern). OSU’s backfield should be quite successful again this weekend.

Offensively, the two teams have similar numbers in yardage and first downs, but the Buckeyes are somehow turning those similar numbers into 9 more points per game.

If it wasn’t for the fact that the Vest is 1-3 against Wisconsin (well, against Barry Alvarez anyway), one could predict another easy victory for the Buckeyes.

What say you?