What if NOT making the College Football Playoffs is the best thing for the Ohio State football team?

It sounds ridiculous and resembles the mindset of a loser and non-competitor, I realize that, but what if the Buckeyes just aren’t that good this season? Maybe, despite all the preseason hype and an abundance of talented individuals, OSU isn’t actually one of the top four teams in the country after all.

It’s a thought that popped into my head after Ohio State lost to Michigan State in an incredibly forgettable performance. I first thought about the crazy collection of elite football players that litter the roster, even after all the season-ending injuries that have permeated the offensive lineup. Think about the playmaking possibilities outside of the quarterback position – Parris Campbell, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalin Marshall, Braxton Miller, Curtis Samuel, Michael Thomas, Nick Vannett, and Dontre Wilson. And that’s leaving a few names out. That’s a lot of athletic people who can run really fast, catch the football, and score touchdowns. Head Coach Urban Meyer and the rest of the offensive brain trust often mention the need to get all of their top playmakers more touches. In essence, it’s true – but that might be the exact mindset that is holding this team back.

The reality may just be that the 2015 Buckeyes are more a collection of talented individuals than one of the strongest teams in the country. That might explain why they lost their first game against a quality opponent – the Spartans in Game 11. The MSU roster comes nowhere close to Ohio State’s roster on paper, in terms of comparing athletes, but it does arguably constitute a better team. Their offense seems to be more predicated on getting the ball to the open man, instead of force-feeding specific players on pre-determined plays in order to come close to their respective quotas. Honestly, even though Michigan was absolutely throttled by Ohio State, the Wolverines’ offense seems better-suited to “find the open man” and move the chains, as opposed to throwing to a particular person because it’s his turn.

Speaking of the Buckeyes throttling Michigan this past Saturday, that looked like a darn impressive outing by the Scarlet and Gray. To beat that team, in that stadium, with that head coach, by the score of 42-13 is tremendously impressive. For the first time in 12 games, it looked like OSU had finally put together a complete performance and played up to their potential. And now, Buckeye fans are taking that one impressive outing and using it mental fuel as we hope for any slim chance at qualifying for the playoffs based on other teams’ misfortune. But what if that’s a mistake? If Ohio State played well in one out of 12 games, isn’t it more likely that the particular game was more of an anomaly than the other 11 games? One would be hard=pressed to say that the Buckeyes’ performance on November 21 against MSU was a true representation of their potential, but if the team that showed up that day is closer to the team’s true identity than the one that pummeled Michigan?

Perhaps the recency effect is taking over the minds of Ohio State fans around the country, and the impressive outing against the Wolverines is clouding our collective opinion of how good OSU actually is. We, as a fan base, are assuming that if were to slip into the playoffs that we’d continue to look like a fluid, dominating team. But what happens if we get into the playoffs as the No. 4 seed and play against Clemson or Alabama similar to how we played against Northern Illinois? Or like we played against Western Michigan? Would all this wishing and hoping and finger crossing be worth it if we got in and then lost to Alabama by 17 points? Maybe the Buckeyes are exactly where they should be, based on how good of a team – or collection of individuals – they actually are.

…Just kidding, I really hope Ohio State makes the playoffs!

College football is the greatest game on Earth. It’s unlikely that anyone reading this disagrees. Part of what makes college football so exciting, so captivating, so maddening is its unpredictability. The season is so short, the playoff field is so small, and there so many teams vying for a spot that a single misstep can end anyone’s championship hopes in a matter of seconds, or less. Michigan State severely damaged the playoff chances of both Michigan and Ohio State this year, and both times they did it without ever having a lead while there was still time on the clock. And while that is excruciating for fans of the losing team—the epitome of the agony of defeat, in fact—it is exactly what we, as college football fans, should want.

Imagine the alternative. Imagine the world where everything goes exactly the way we expect it to. In that world, we would be watching Ohio State dominate every opponent on their way to a national title. No one would even come close to challenging the Buckeyes all season, except maybe Alabama or TCU in the playoffs. Michigan would be playing better but not really doing anything impressive as new coach Jim Harbaugh tries to manage as best he can in a transition year. Sounds great for Ohio State fans, but it certainly would make today’s game much less exciting than it is right now.

Oh, and let’s not forget that in this alternate, no-surprises reality, we’re not vying for a repeat championship, because we didn’t even make the playoff last year. There was no Kick Six, no Fifth Down, no Because We Couldn’t Go For Three. Appalachian State never beat Michigan. The Holy Buckeye pass glanced off Michael Jenkins’ fingertips, then Miami steamrolled Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl. We never got to see Boise State’s bag-of-tricks upset of Oklahoma. There was no fumblerooski, no Bush Push, no Hello Heisman. The band stayed off the field.

But fortunately, that’s not the world we live in. We live in the world where Ohio State’s offense has underperformed in more games than it’s dazzled. (But it has dazzled.) We live in the world where Michigan is in the top 6 nationally in every defensive category, but can’t crack the top 50 on offense. We live in the world where an upset by Penn State will vault the winner of The Game into the Big Ten championship game and, with a little bit of national help, that team’s national title hopes will be revived too.

Unpredictability. It’s what fuels Ohio State/Michigan, still the greatest rivalry in all of sport. For the first time in a long time, the teams enter the game at a virtual dead heat. As I type this, the Buckeyes are a 1-point favorite, but that’s probably changed now that you’re reading it. Urban Meyer has yet to lose to Michigan as the head coach of Ohio State. Wolverine head coaches are 12-2 against the Buckeyes in their first year. Ohio State is coming off their first loss in 23 games; Michigan has won 9 games for just the third time in the last 10 years.

Today is the dawning of a new era of The Game. It’s a coaching matchup that this rivalry hasn’t seen since Woody/Earle vs. Bo. (Coach Bruce doesn’t usually get billed along with Coach Hayes, but he had a 5-4 record against Schembechler and deserves recognition for that.) John Cooper could never overcome his Michigan bugaboo, and Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez proved to be no match for the ruthless Jim Tressel. Brady Hoke took advantage of the rocky wake of Tressel’s abrupt departure but couldn’t best Urban Meyer in three tries, despite some very competitive games.

But Harbaugh vs. Meyer seems like a slam dunk. Urban is the best active coach in college football, having amassed a 48-4 record at Ohio State so far. Harbaugh has had an illustrious career himself, reinvigorating Stanford and dominating in the NFL with the 49ers. And now, he has Michigan in the top 10 of the playoff rankings. All signs point to a fierce battle between two bitter rivals for many years to come, the kind of edge-of-your-seat back-and-forth that few fans of either team have witnessed in their lifetimes.

The Game is back.

Once upon a time in the not so distant past, the Ohio State football staff led by coach Jim Tressel, was preparing their players to compete in the season opener against Youngstown State. The year was 2007. The Buckeyes would go on to win that game by a score of 38 to 6. What is special about this Ohio State team, is that they were just coming off of a 41-14 shellacking in the BCS national championship, at the hands of the University of Florida and their budding head coach, Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes were an angry football team with a lot to prove; to themselves and to the nation. The angry Buckeyes would go on a tear in their next nine games against the likes of Washington, Penn State, Purdue, Michigan State and Minnesota among others, where only one of their opponents (Michigan State) was able to keep the score within two touchdowns. However, on November 10th, Ohio State would meet their match when they faced the fighting Illini and their all everything quarterback, Juice Williams. In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, Williams said,

“Good teams are going to hit you,” “They’re going to hit you hard and they’re going to hit you often. It’s about how you respond. My whole thing was just go hit them back in the mouth.”

That’s exactly what Williams and Illinois did as Ohio State started the game by throwing down field, looking for big plays. OSU would score early but not often; as they were held to just two touchdowns after their first drive of the game. Eventually Illinois would go on to schock Ohio State and the rest of the country on that night by knocking off the number one ranked Buckeyes. Unfortunately for Ohio State, the loss to Illinois came on the second to last week of their season; so in all likelihood, after dropping to number seven in the polls, there would not be enough time for the Buckeyes to revive their season. But as fate would have it, Oregon, Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia, Mizzouri and LSU would all lose, in between Ohio State’s loss to Illinois and the BCS national championship selection show. Ohio State dropped from number one, down to number seven and climbed back up to number one in the rankings within about two weeks, on their journey to play in the championship game.

Ohio State finds itself in a similar situation eight years later, as they have fallen to Michigan State in the second to last game of the season. The Buckeyes need some help to get into the championship picture again by the end of the year; but not nearly as much help as they needed in 2007. The Buckeyes could find themselves back in the playoff picture if they win this weekend and the Spartans lose to Penn State; and with a hurt Connor Cook, Penn State has a significantly improved chance of beating MSU. There are a number of scenarios that would place the Buckeyes back in the top 4, but this is one that would require the least amount of help from teams around the country.

Finally and most important of all, Ohio State must have an extremely strong performance against our rivals this weekend, much like how they did against Wisconsin in the title game last season. We will see how the season ends and whether the Bucks can make it back to the top 4, but believe me, crazier things have happened!

By: Phil Schoch, Twitter me @osuphil95

Each week Pick ’em & Tidbits risks public humiliation and mockery by predicting each B1G game, as well as a few national spotlight games, versus the Vegas spread.

A Pie & A Song: Busting out of my Buckeye Blues

Buckeye fans dealing with a football loss have a spectrum of coping methods. The more volatile may drink themselves into a thrashing rage or rage-Tweet at players and coaches (if this is you, seek help now). Others seek group therapy sessions. On Saturday night I replaced the Buckeye flag affixed to the front of our home with a black skull-and-crossbones flag, then I withdrew and analyzed. I listened to post-game interviews, read Tweets, studied the dreadful statistics, considered or dismissed various opinions and takes and ate pie.

I never intended for my Meijer Rich Caramel Apple Pie to be consumed in mournful solitude. It is a flavorsome, friends and family, celebratory pie. After three hours of analysis and one-third of the pie ingested, I fell into a tumultuous sleep. Morning arrived, blanketed in the post-Buckeye loss blues. Another slice of pie was no help. Then my three year old daughter walked through the kitchen singing a Trombone Shorty song and my blues were lifted. I was still aggravated to no end, but no longer brooding. Wait. Did I just experience perspective? If so, I certainly could have used some perspective and pie in ’95, ’96 and ’97 after those cannonball-to-the-gut Michigan losses.

I highly recommend the Meijer Rich Caramel Apple Pie. It is coated in a quarter-to-a-half-inch (no lie) of breakfast-y caramel you would find on an iced cream-filled donut and weighs about 8 pounds (also not a lie). Lift with your legs, not your back.

If Trombone Shorty comes to your town – buy tickets, get a babysitter and go! Core-melting New Orleans funk-rock-jazz. Here is the song my daughter was singing Sunday.

Buckeye fans: Have rage? George does too.

Overview of the Aggravation

A philosophy and commitment to championship expectations among the football program, school administration and fan base is what makes Ohio State football an all-time great. Ohio State football and its fans should never be ashamed or afraid of championship expectations, because without them – we’re Purdue or Illinois or what has become of Nebraska. Losses happen – and if it hurts as a coach, a player or a fan, good – it should.

Some perspective. Losses happen – in Ohio State’s case, it had been 441 days between losses. Before the Spartans invaded The ‘Shoe, the Buckeyes last regular season B1G loss had taken place 1,445 days ago. An undefeated season, a National Championship and 23 & 24-game winning streaks have taken place in the past four years. On Saturday, the Buckeyes lost – and it hurt. It hurt Ezekiel Elliott.

Championship expectations and championship preparation and performance against perfection are what make Urban Meyer teams great. On Saturday, a season of disheveled preparation and uneven performances reached a confluence – and the Buckeyes lost to a tenacious, resolute and undermanned Spartan squad. Afterward, Zeke spoke out. Did he say too much and go too far? Yup. Was he a robust, 100% correct? Yup. Will he likely learn from this situation and become a better leader down the road? Yup. Will it harm his draft status, as some national drama-instigators have suggested? Hecks no!

As if they broke down my own thoughts on Saturday’s debacle and put them into words for me, here are two excellent local Buckeye writers:

From Chris Lauderback of ElevenWarriors.com (@chris11w)

PLAYING NOT TO LOSE ENDS IN LOSS

Remember when Urban Meyer tried to score 50 points on every team by speeding up the tempo and throwing haymakers at opposing defenses? I do, but not this year.

 Instead, with a three-headed monster of Ed Warinner, Tim Beck and Meyer calling the plays for an offense featuring bouts of indecision around staffing the quarterback position, a line that has yet to match last year’s effectiveness and spotty wide receiver play all complemented by the best running back in America, the play calling became painfully conservative.

SHAKE IT UP

The season is far from over but last night served as the greatest example yet that Ohio State needs to shake up the offensive staff’s roles in the offseason. Maybe that’s through turnover, maybe it’s through shuffling responsibility but the status quo won’t suffice.

The current setup has taken some of Warinner’s time away from coaching the offensive line and it seems logical to correlate that fact with the lack of consistency and improvement from a group that was the strength of last year’s championship run.

Beck has taken over some of the play calling duties while moonlighting as the quarterbacks coach and it’s telling that the offense looks rudderless at times as both quarterbacks have shown zero improvement – if not regression – in comparison to last year. Specific to yesterday, to not even attempt to attack Sparty’s depleted secondary was flat out criminal. How much of that decision was Beck and how much was Meyer isn’t totally clear but either way it’s on Meyer as the head coach.

From Tony Gerdeman of TheOzone.net (@GerdOZone)

Boy, oh boy, was that an irresponsible offensive game plan by the Ohio State coaches, or what?

URBAN MEYER HAS GONE TOO CONSERVATIVE

I cannot believe that what we witnessed on Saturday was an Urban Meyer offense. This was not the offense of an elite head coach.

THIS IS THE REAL 2015 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

This isn’t a team that was bored by the schedule. This wasn’t a team that was waiting for a real challenge. This is a team that scored twice at home against Michigan State on touchdown drives of 32 and 6 yards. Those are fake drives. This is a team that struggled on offense at times all season long.

IF YOU HAVE A BAD OFFENSE, IT’S ON PURPOSE

This is my longest-held and most firm football belief, and I have mentioned it many, many times: If you are a college football head coach and you have a bad offense, you’re doing it on purpose. There is no reason for it. There are far too many successful offenses out there with lesser skill looking like world beaters.

The only excuse for Ohio State’s offense to look like it did against Michigan State is that Ohio State caused it. You can’t give this much credit to the Spartans. Give them some, they took some things away from the Buckeyes, but the Buckeyes didn’t look for replacements, they just simply threw their arms up and hoped that they could get away with doing absolutely nothing.

The Buckeyes ran just 45 plays, which is what good up-tempo teams want to run in a half. Getting 45 plays is due to a lack of trying on the coaches’ part and that’s a total disservice to the players. Limiting opportunities is the exact opposite of what Urban Meyer has always said his offense is about. He talks about writing down his list of 10 playmakers and how he’s going to get them the ball, but where is the evidence of that list and those intentions this season? It never existed.

THE GAME IS ONLY DAYS AWAY!

With the Michigan Game and their first tangle with Jim Harbaugh just days away, can this Buckeye squad bounce back? Mentally? Emotionally? Strategically? Organizationally? Urban Meyer has spoken glowingly all season of the leadership and focus of his team. That leadership will be tested to the extreme this week in preparation for a rejuvenated Michigan program with a stout front 7 and better DB’s than Sparty. My guts are churning already.

To the good news…

My late season push continued in Week 12, as Pick ‘em & Tidbits registered a 6-2 record versus the spread and 6-2 straight up. My PM Stukenborg Fearless Prediction of the Indiana Creepy Creans (+3) over Maryland won outright as well.

Heading into the final week of the B1G regular season, my record stands at 68-64 (51.5%!!!) ATS and 98-34 (74.2%) SU.

Disclaimer: Keep your holidays merry and bright. Don’t wager your kids Christmas present money on anything you think you may have learned here.

Around the B1G…

Friday, November 27

Iowa

3:30 ABC Vegas says… Iowa -1

At Nebraska Â

This is how legendary Iowa coach used to slump around the football offices. Now he has swagger.

Not only is this link SFW, it is officially Iowa SFW. blob:https%3A//vine.co/e7217ecc-fb37-4015-ab8c-c84ea284205c

Pick ‘em says… Too much on the line for the Hawkeyes to lose this one. Iowa, 27-24.

Saturday, November 28

Ohio State Â

12:00 ABC Vegas says… Blue -1

At Michigan Â

A lot of questions need answers. Does Ohio State have the leadership and focus to move past the Michigan State loss and be ready for a battle in Ann Arbor? Can OSU find offensive balance in less than a week? Under the Radar X-Factor: Can OSU OLB, Darron Lee (New Albany), neutralize Michigan TE, Jake Butt (Pickerington) on 3rd down and get the defense off the field?

Pick ‘em says… At mid-week, my stomach feels like this Michigan Man’s face. Buckeyes, 24-23. 

Indiana

12:00 BTN Vegas says… Hoosiers -6.5

At Purdue Â

The Hoosier state’s battle for the Old Oaken Bucket.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pick ‘em says… Add another I to the chain. Hoosiers, 38-16.

Maryland

12:00 BTN Vegas says… Terps -1

At Rutgers

The Eastern Seaboard’s Battle for Jim Delany’s Cash.

 

 

 

 

 

Pick ‘em says… Everybody loses when Rutgers and Maryland square off in a B1G sanctioned event. Turtles, 24-20.

Penn State Â

3:30 ESPN Vegas says… Sparty -11

At Michigan State Â

The Land Grant Trophy is the second worst trophy in B1G history. Remember the short-lived Farmer Buys Young Boy for a Bushel of Corn Cy-Hawk Trophy (creepy image below)? That one is the worst, but half of the blame goes to the Big XII. The Land Grant is all B1G and celebrates a federal government real estate program of 1855 involving property agencies as Pyramis – trash talking over 160 year old government programs – oo’yeah! The pads will be poppin’! Here is the Land Grant Trophy in it’s 7th grade junior high yearbook photo. Here is my favorite version – The Lou Grant Trophy. Man, that Ed Asner was a hairy guy. In case you did not know, multiple David Letterman Top 10 Lists referenced the full-body shagginess of the actor – including this gem from a 1997 list: Top Ten Surprises In The New Version Of Star Wars – #10 Part of Chewbacca now played by a shirtless Ed Asner. B1G comedic trophy gold!

 

 

 

 

 

Pick ‘em says… Sparty in a squeeeeeeeeeker, 20-19.

Wisconsin Â

3:30 BTN Vegas says… W -2.5

At Minnesota Â

Southern Canada’s Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe

 

 

Pick ‘em says… It’s the PM Stukenborg Fearless Prediction! Gophers in a mild-flavored Gouda upset. Gophers, 24-17. 

Northwestern Â

3:30 At Soldier Field ESPNU Vegas says… NW -3.5

Illinois Â

Battle for the Land of Lincoln Trophy

Pick ‘em says… Northwestern’s resurgent season has been a pleasant surprise that Wildcat fans won’t go see. Wildcats, 24-17.

National Spotlight games…

Baylor Â

Friday, November 27 7:30 ESPN Vegas says… Bears -1

At TCU Â

It’s amazing how far these two programs have come in the past decade. They have temporarily put the blue-blooded Longhorns out to pasture. This battle of third-string quarterbacks will be determined by turnovers.

Pick ‘em says… I’ll postulate that TCU is the tougher team. Frogs, 38-31.

Notre Dame Â

7:30 FOX Vegas says…Stanford -4

At Stanford Â

Pick ‘em says… Please lose Notre Dame. Cardinal, 27-24.

Oklahoma Â

8:00 ABC Vegas says… Sooners -6.5

At Oklahoma State Â

If you are a rooting for the perfect storm to get the Buckeyes back into the Final 4, you are a mid-day Nittany Lion fan and a late night Cowboy fan.

Pick ’em says… Sooners are on a roll, but I hope Jim Ross is sadly shaking his head like this at midnight. Sooners, 45-35.

Thanks for reading, Dan of Crestwood.