Ohio State plays its third away-game-at-night of the season this weekend (*cough*unfair*cough*), and it’s against one of the top defenses in the country.

As of week 9, OSU and PSU have no common opponents. So, this week, we’re presenting the numbers from Penn State’s home games and Ohio State’s away games.

The tables list the opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Penn State Home Games

Table 2: Ohio State Away Games

Notes:
Ooohhh… a juicy comparison. Here are some points for argument:

• Penn State’s numbers are better overall… BUT Penn State’s home opponents rank 118, 119, 85, and 109 (respectively) in total offense (out of 119 teams overall). Put simply, the worst of the worst.
• PSU’s home opponents’ combined average yards per game (ypg) is 268.4. Note that the Lions are allowing 211.8 ypg. In other words, Penn State is holding home opponents to 57 fewer yards than their average.
• OSU’s away opponents’ combined average ypg is 403.8. OSU is holding these opponents to 106 fewer yards per game. (And remember, they’re doing so in away-at-night environments).

What say you? Personally, the more I look at the numbers, it seems clear that the Nittany Lions’ offense will hardly challenge the Buckeyes at all. Like last week, Penn State’s best chance for an upset is to hope for multiple defensive scores. Joe Pa needs turnovers to have a chance to win this game.

Want more proof that ESPN is the source of the “SEC superiority” myth? Watch Chris Fowler as he calls the BCS poll the “SEC poll” without realizing it (slip-up is at the 1:15 mark):

A few of our commenters have noticed a trend occurring… OSU is playing a team with a lot of “talent,” that should “test” the Buckeyes. When that happens, “we’ll know what kind of team the Buckeyes have.” After dispatching said team, the ESPN folks say “Ohio State survived the test, but we won’t know until next week what kind of team they have.”

Obviously, it’s an canned line of reasoning, because the same things have been said each week for the past few weeks… again and again and again – it’s been said about Washington, Purdue, Michigan State, etc. How many weeks are we going to be told “we’ll see how good they are next week,” then watch OSU handily dispatch an opponent, only to cast doubt on the quality of the team’s dominance afterwards?

Herbie does it again at the end of the above video. “The OSU defense is playing like a #1 team, but we won’t know anything about the offense until next week.” Kirk, MSU came to Columbus with the 15th best offense in the country. Everyone agrees that MSU has a good offense, correct? Some ESPN analysts even predicted an upset, due to the strength of players like Ringer and Thomas. So, if OSU were to offensively outperform a team that everyone agrees is one of the best, wouldn’t it make sense to say that OSU’s offense one of the best as well?

And how did the Buckeyes do last Saturday? OSU goes out and has two players that individually outperform the entire MSU offense – Wells with 221 yards and Boeckman with 193 (compared to MSU’s 185 total). Yet, “we still don’t know how good OSU’s offense is.”

Put simply, the Buckeyes are perfectly capable of beating any team in the country, and probably would on a neutral field. The only question is whether or not the offense is mature enough to not beat itself, like was almost allowed to happen last Saturday.

Sparty comes to the Horseshoe to face OSU this week, and once again there is only one common opponent between the two teams – the Northwestern Wildcats.

The tables list the common opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Michigan State

Table 2: Ohio State

Notes:
This is where I wish the two teams had more opponents. The Total and Average fields would give a better picture of how these two teams match up. This NW game is ruining MSU’s statistics this season.

For example, consider that “611 yards” stat. Yes, MSU’s defense totally disappeared from that game, but it appears to have been an aberration. For its other 6 opponents, the Spartans allowed only 286 yards per game, which would be good enough for top 3 in the Big Ten (and close to OSU and Penn State’s average).

Note that “0” in the Turnover column… the Spartans are tied for second in the Big Ten in turnover margin (0.71).

What say you? Does this game have the potential to be 1998 all over again?

Just so that I understand, here: As a college football fan, I’m expected to look down on Ohio State because its victories this year have all been against soft competition.

On the other hand, we have to look up to teams like USC, Cal, LSU, Oklahoma, etc. because they’ve had harder schedules — even though they all have a loss to soft competition.

Isn’t that sort of circular? Maybe a tad strawman-ish?

The teams that beat those powerhouses are Stanford, Oregon State, Kentucky, and Colorado. The nation’s “elite” didn’t lose to the tough teams on their schedule… they lost to three very poor and two fair-to-middlin’ teams; representing the weakest opponents on their schedules.

Again: OSU’s victories over weak competition are bad, and other teams’ losses to weak competition are good, only because the pundits say so.

And this seems logical to everyone? I must be missing something.

I know, I know, you say “Kentucky has a really good team this year. Find another example.” But compare KY’s game against Kent State to OSU’s game against that same team, and tell me that OSU’s victory wasn’t more impressive.

(The comparison is even stronger when you consider the fact that KY’s starters played the entire game against the Golden Flashes, while OSU did not play a single starter during the second half of its game.)

And if you can use such examples to prove that OSU is significantly better than Kentucky… and Kentucky just beat the “invincible #1 LSU Tigers zOMG-best-defense-EVAH”… well, then, you’ve used logic to **END CARRIER**

**601

Uhh… seen the latest BCS standings?

“THAT. JUST. HAPPENED!”

Ferrell’s exclamation probably typifies the reaction of most OSU fans after watching this weekend’s chaos.

11-12-10-8-4-3-1. No, that’s not another “secret” code from a lame nighttime TV soap opera. That sequence represents OSU’s rise to the top of the polls from preseason to week 7. Buckeye fans will take it, but it’s not how we really wanted it. We wanted the team to sneak their way into the title game, like in 2002, or like Florida did in 2006. Still, though, the ranking is here, and time will tell if the young Buckeye offense can handle being the hunted week in and out.

“Yeah, but OSU hasn’t played anyone. It ain’t fair. LSU, Oklahoma, and California are probably better; and they’ve played against better teams.”
Perhaps that’s true. However, there’s something to be said about rewarding a team that did exactly what it was supposed to do, week in and week out, and punishing those who didn’t.

Besides, LSU, OK, and Cal didn’t lose to good teams, they lost to crappy ones! (Or at least ones that were mediocre at best). OSU has buried every similarly-tough team it’s faced this season. OSU has done what it was supposed to do. OSU is playing the most consistent football in the country. The other teams haven’t, and that’s why OSU is ranked above them.

Another consideration is “point differential” — the difference between a team’s total points and the points it gave up — which is as big an indicator as anything else of a team’s overall strength. Ohio State has a +204 differential. Oklahoma is nearly similar with +213. LSU’s is another tier down with +175. South Florida is +117.

Not been tested?
At any rate, the idea that Ohio State hasn’t been tested this season is arguable. For example, Washington is much, much better than its record reveals. The Huskies just drew the short end of the stick with an insane schedule in 2007 – playing against OSU, USC, Cal, Oregon, etc., etc. In addition, Purdue, Minnesota, even Northwestern came in with high-flying offenses, and OSU shut them all down easily. Even lowly Kent State came into the horseshoe with the #11 rushing offense in the country. Each time, the Silver Bullets have been totally dominant.

How dominant? The Buckeyes have not given up a single touchdown at home all season. Not one. We all know that Ohio State leads the nation in scoring defense — allowing only 6.6 points per game (ppg) — but what isn’t mentioned is that number includes a safety and a kickoff return for TD, points that the offense and special teams gave up. Not counting those 9 points gives the OSU defense a 5.3 ppg average.

Furthermore, if you were to discard two or three “garbage” scores in the final minute (about 17 points’ worth across three games), their performance is even more impressive. This is scary dominant. Historical dominant. NCAA record dominant. Time will tell whether any offense is good enough put up significant numbers on the Buckeyes this year.

So, when people say “the Buckeyes haven’t played anyone,” what they actually mean is that the Ohio State offense hasn’t been tested yet. We already know that the OSU defense can make it a game with anyone else in the country. What is unknown is how the OSU offense will respond when faced off against a team that has an effective defense.

When will we know?
That will be answered in two weeks, when OSU travels to Penn State to play against the Lions’ top-five scoring defense. OSU fans: if the Buckeyes leave Happy Valley with a victory, then it will be time to allow yourselves to get excited. This is the game when we will finally know how good the Ohio State Buckeyes are. Are they elite yet again, deserving of a BCS title shot? Or are they just “really good,” like LSU, USC, and the like?

Some interesting BCS trivia to note: in the ten years of the BCS, one of the teams ranked 1 or 2 in the first poll of the season has always made it to the BCS title game. In other words: if history is any guide, either OSU or South Florida will be playing for the title.

Is it too late to buy stock in antacids?

Yes, dear, there actually is a common opponent between OSU and Kent State – the Akron Zips.

The tables include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Kent State

Table 2: Ohio State

Notes:
You see, this is what’s awesome about comparing apples to apples. Look at how the OSU and Kent State offenses performed against the Akron defense… their numbers are almost identical. Interesting.

As for the two points the Buckeyes gave up? I feel a jaunty haiku coming on:

Tell us what you think. (About the numbers, not the poetry.)

Each week from now until the end of the season, we’ll be publishing a couple of tables that show relevant statistics between the common opponents of OSU and their next foe.

At first, the tables will be thin. (As of now, OSU and Purdue only have one common opponent, hence why the data in each row is identical). As the season goes on, however, the data will become more comprehensive.

Like last year, we’ve only included the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: Purdue

Table 2: Ohio State

Notes:
With only one common opponent between the two teams, it’s hard to draw conclusions. Still, OSU’s defensive numbers are better across the board, keeping the Gophers’ offense to ten fewer first downs and just over half the yardage that Purdue allowed. (Note: two of Minnesota’s four TOs were “on downs.”) The number that stands out the strongest is in points allowed – Purdue’s 31 to OSU’s 7.

Offensively, note that Purdue scored more (45 pts) with a similar amount of offensive production (yardage-wise) as the Bucks had. This suggests that Purdue’s offense was moving the ball easier than the Bucks’ offense was. However, this should be taken with a grain of salt: the two coaches ran very different offensive schemes. Tiller depended on the pass (338 passing, 166 rushing), where Tressel used the run (209 passing, 250 rushing). One of the problems in using only one set of data points, I guess.

That’s enough analysis from me. This is meant to generate discussion, not be a MotSaG lecture/opinion post, so please share your two cents in the comments.