Archives for December 2013

That wasn’t fun.

The first quarter was mostly dominated by Michigan State’s plodding offense and some real bad Ohio State brain farts. Ohio State kept Michigan State’s first drive alive with two boneheaded pass interference calls (Shazier’s penalty was a real head scratcher).

Along with the bad plays, things were definitely getting chippy.

A touchdown pass to Lippet after a long TD pass to Mumphrey put the Spartans up big, 17-0 and Ohio State looked totally out of synch and completely lost.

Buckeyes finally got on track scoring 10 unanswered points to end the first half and scored on their first possession in the second half. Braxton Miller looked much more comfortable in the 2nd quarter and Carlos Hyde was still unstoppable.

After tying the score at 17 a piece, Michigan State looked to be on a decent drive when CJ Barnett stepped in front of a Connor Cook pass and intercepted.

After a stalled drive, Ohio State pinned Michigan State inside their 5, and forced a 3 and out. Buckeyes then marched down the field, almost strictly running the ball. It was pure MANBALL and there was nothing Michigan State could do. Ohio State too the lead 24-17 after scoring 24 unanswered points.

Michigan started their next drive with a big run by Langford. After going for it on 4th and 2, Sparty had to settle for a 44 yard field goal, 24-20 Ohio State.

After a little back and forth, Connor Cook drove Michigan State and capped off a 90 yard drive with a throw across the field to a wide open tight end to take the lead, 27-24.

A punt block by Shazier with a little less than eight minutes left gave OSU the ball on MSU’s 48 yard line. Ohio State had to go for it on 4th down and failed to convert, giving the ball back to MSU with 5 minutes left.

Michigan State would drive for a gutbusting touchdown to take the lead 34-24.

After Braxton’s 4th and 10 pass fell short, Michigan State took over on downs.

I hate sports. Good night.

Kick-off is less than thirty minutes away. Use this open thread to comment on the game, plays that were amazing, and if you want, how putrid that SEC championship game has been. BARF.

Kick-off is 8:17 PM EST on FOX. Gus Johnson MAGIC!

Update:End of the First Quarter, MSU 3 OSU 0

Not a pretty quarter for Ohio State. Poor decisions on 3rd down kept Michigan State’s field goal drive alive. Offense looks a little out of synch.

Update:End of the First half, MSU 17 OSU 10

For as poorly Ohio State played on both sides of the ball, this score is more than manageable. The defense has been great against the run but they can’t get off the field. MSU has played great but they still can’t stop Braxton. He’s going to be the deciding factor in the second half.

Update: End of third quarter, OSU 24 MSU 20

Ohio State came roaring out at the start of the third quarter and is playing much more coherently on both sides of the ball. 24 unanswered points before MSU kicked a field goal.

We haven’t done one of these in a couple of years… We’re resurrecting the format in honor of the B1G Title Game.

The info here complements our earlier By The Numbers post, but is limited to the two teams’ performances against common opponents. It’s not necessarily a perfect way to compare the teams, but it offers a more apples-to-apples comparison between the good and bad guys.

Tables 1 and 2 detail the performance of each team’s scoring offense and scoring defense, respectively, against the numbers the opponents typically give up.

PF = Points For; PA = Points Against, DEV = Deviation from opponent’s average

Table 1: Scoring Offense

Not a lot of surprise, here; Ohio State routinely scores significantly more points against these opponents than is typical for said opponents. (Over two TDs more per game, actually.)

MSU’s average is pretty close to the opponents’ average, indicating that the Spartan’s offense is competent, but not necessarily strong. It might be a sign that the MSU offense tends to play to the level of the defense it is facing.

Table 2: Scoring Defense

Again, surprise-surprise, MSU’s defense clearly outclasses OSU’s defense against these opponents. But what’s more interesting is how inconsistent the Buckeyes look. From game to game against these teams, OSU’s defense vacillates. Not terribly, mind you – even at their worst (against TTUN), they still only gave up one more TD than the opponent would have typically scored – but from game to game, it was hard to say which Bucks defense would show up.

What does it mean?
Against these opponents, Ohio State’s offense was unstoppable and its defense was intermittently solid. Michigan State’s offense was competent, while its defense was dominant. Yeah, yeah, I know, we knew all that.

But let’s assume for argument’s sake that the teams meet “halfway” when they play against each other this weekend. That is to say, both OSU and MSU give and take a little, each team’s average performance being counteracted by the other’s to an equal extent. (For example, imagine a situation where Team A usually gets 100 points, Team B usually allows zero, and if all things were equal, we think Team A would score 50.)

Ohio State is averaging 48.2 ppg this season to the Spartans’ 29.4. Defensively, the Buckeyes are giving up 20.3 ppg to Michigan State’s 11.8.

Based on their performance against these common opponents, if the teams “met halfway,” each team would score about 4 points below their average. This implies that OSU has the advantage – this hypothetical game would end with OSU scoring in the low 40s and MSU scoring in the mid-to-upper 20s. My spidey sense says OSU 40-28.

Of course, this is all hypothetical, and you can never predict all the intangible factors that usually affect the outcome of a game. Someone is going to make a mistake, get a turnover, get a favorable call (or no-call) by the officials, etc. As the old saying goes, that’s why they play the game.

But another intangible aspect of Saturday’s matchup is the fact that none of Michigan State’s opponents were built like OSU, with a solid offensive line and rushing game.

In fact, the best offense that MSU has seen belongs to Indiana. The Spartans did not play Wisconsin or Penn State. They lost to a decent, but not elite, Notre Dame offense. They gave up 28 points – on long, punishing drives – to a Husker team that did not have a starting QB and had turned the ball over 5 times. It’s entirely possible that the Spartans’ defensive numbers are not indicative of their actual strength. And even if it is, the numbers still tend to favor the Buckeyes – providing both teams play like they typically do on average.

It’s finally time to settle up all the conference scores and find out what the last installment of the BCS will look like. Some conferences don’t have championship games, of course, so here is your guide to every game that will have an impact.

Sun Belt Championship

Saturday, 8:00p: Louisiana-Lafayette @ South Alabama. The Cajuns just need to win here for sole ownership of the title. Even if they don’t, they still have the head-to-head win over second place Arkansas State, which I guess could come into play for a bowl or something. Here’s a treat for anyone still reading this. (GamePlan/espn3)

Conference USA Championship

Saturday, Noon: Marshall @ Rice. Marshall lost in three overtimes to Virginia Tech back when Virginia Tech was still maybe good. Rice beat Kansas, which I guess isn’t really that impressive. (ESPN2)

Mountain West Championship

Saturday, 10:00p: Utah State @ Fresno State. Utah State kind of rode an easy conference schedule to a division title that should probably be Boise State’s. If this is a good game, I’ll be stunned. Still, it will make a nice nightcap if nothing has happened to make you not want to watch more football. (CBS)

AAC Championship

Thursday, 7:30p: Louisville @ Cincinnati. The winner has a shot at a split title with UCF, who only holds a head-to-head win over Louisville. That means there could be a mess if Cincy wins and UCF loses. (ESPN)

Saturday, Noon: UCF @ SMU. UCF just needs to win and they get the BCS bid. If they lose, they’ll still get it over Louisville, but if the Cardinals lose to Cincy, the bid would probably go to the higher-ranked team. Cincy is sitting just outside the top 25 right now while UCF is at #15, so it’s hard to say who would come out on top in this scenario. (ESPN)

MAC Championship

Friday, 8:00p: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois. That other undefeated team has one more hurdle before busting the BCS for the second straight season. Bowling Green got shredded by Indiana, but has been on a hot streak lately, giving up just 17 points in 4 games in November. (ESPN2)

Big 12 Championship

Saturday, Noon: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State. The Sooners can’t capture the league title for themselves, but a win here opens the door for the Texas/Baylor winner. If Oklahoma State wins, they hold head-to-head wins over both the Longhorns and the Bears. (ABC)

Saturday, 3:30p: Texas @ Baylor. There’s nothing to add here; the winner will take the BCS bid if Oklahoma can beat Oklahoma State. (Fox)

Pac-12 Championship

Saturday, 7:45p: Stanford @ Arizona State. There’s nothing on the line here besides the Rose Bowl bid, which of course is huge. That game is likely to be against Michigan State, whether they win the Big Ten or not. (ESPN)

SEC Championship

Saturday, 4:00p: Auburn vs. Missouri. I’m taking the Tigers in this oneHAHAHAHA HAHAHA HAHAHA HAHA HA HA. Ahem. Anyway, maybe it’s just the schadenfreude talking, but I’m more impressed with Missouri this year than I am with Auburn. I’m wondering if the “Kick Six” attention and national title arguments might distract Auburn this week and cause one of those post-upset stumbles we see so much.

This game has national title implications if Florida State or Ohio State loses. (CBS)

ACC Championship

Saturday, 8:00p: Duke vs. Florida State. Has anyone ever heard a sweeter phrase than “Beat Duke at football and you’re in the national title game?” Probably not. I’m not even sure if overlooking the Blue Devils would make a difference. I mean no offense, it’s just that these two teams seem light years apart. (ABC)

Big Ten Championship

Saturday, 8:00p: Ohio State vs. Michigan State. Easily the most important game of the week. If Michigan State wins, about a hundred teams (including the entire SEC) will be clamoring for that national title spot. (Fox)

The Spartans and Buckeyes will enter Saturday’s game after very different performances in their previous outings. Ohio State needed an interception, on a two point conversion, to hold off arch rival Michigan in the final seconds. The defense put in its worse outing of the season, allowing the Wolverines to gain 603 yards and score 41 points, while the offense had one of its more successful days rushing for 393 yards, and scoring 42 points. As the Buckeyes were fighting off the Wolverines, Sparty was busy putting in a poor offensive performance and good defensive performance against the Minnesota Gophers. Both teams survived their respective games, and will meet in Indianapolis in what appears to be another street fight type game, similar to the one that was played last year in East Lansing. The Buckeyes are fighting for a trip to the national title game, while Michigan State is fighting for a shot at the Rose Bowl. This game will come down to who can minimize their weakness and play the most mistake free football. Allow me to explain.

What Ohio State has to do on defense

The Spartan offense matches up favorably for this Buckeye defense. The Spartans will run the ball to set up the play action for their intermediate passing attack. Ohio State bolsters one of the best, most athletic, defensive front sevens in college football. They thrive off stopping the run and should have a lot of success doing so Saturday night. Ryan Shazier and Michael Bennett are tackle for losses machines and should have a great deal of success against this Spartan offensive line that has, at times, seemed a bit slow. The Spartans like to run off tackle, so the Buckeyes will need to maintain gap integrity and not over pursue the play to prevent cutback lanes. Michigan States Jeremy Langford is an all purpose back who has good vision, and once he gets moving downhill he is tough to stop. The Ohio State front four will need to minimize arm tackles against him and fill gaps quickly to prevent him from gaining momentum. Stop the run and this Spartan offense becomes a whole lot less complicated to defend.

When the Spartans pass it, it is generally to their running backs in the flat, or on quick curls or slants to their receivers on the outside. The offensive coaching staff like to move the pocket and get the ball out of quarterback Connor Cook’s hand quickly. On those short quick throws, the pass rushers will most likely be unable to get home, so they must get their hands up and bat down a couple of passes. Joey Bosa and Noah Spence are perfect athletes to do so. That will lead to Cook lofting the ball more to get it over the lineman, which will provide the corners a chance to jump routes or make a big hit. When the passes are complete in the flats the Buckeyes must swarm to the ball. Roby and Grant are quality tackling corners, but they do have a tendency to miss at times, so Shazier, Perry, Barnett, and Brown must be close by to clean up any mistakes.

Cook will rarely take shots down field. Even when he does, it is almost always off of play action and you will notice there are only two receivers running routes, which means the Spartans like to max protect on their play action plays. It will be important for Roby and Grant to not bite on play action, and stay disciplined on the routes as they may be left in coverage for longer than 4 to 5 seconds, if the Buckeye front is unable to generate pressure. The corners will also have to stop the tendency of face guarding their receivers. That is leading to a lot of jump ball situations being won by the opposing receiver. 5’8 Jeremy Gallon won a jump ball last Saturday against 6’1 C.J. Barnett because Barnett had his back to the ball and face guarded Gallon.

The Buckeye linebackers will not have to worry about a Devin Funchess type at tight end. Their main goal for Saturday will be to keep everything in front of them and when they need to make tackles, do so.

What Michigan State has to do on offense

The Spartans keys to success on offense will take them away from their traditional play calling. Connor Cook will need to have the game of his life on Saturday. While running the football will need to remain the staple for Michigan State, Cook will need to take advantage of the Buckeyes miscues and lack of discipline in the back seven. The Spartans can still run two man routes off of play action, however they need to ask their receivers to implement more double moves to get the Buckeye corners to jump on the short route, like they did against Wisconsin.

The Spartan receivers are not an elite group, but on Saturday they will need to take advantage of the one on one match ups they will face. Ohio State will drop safety C.J. Barnett in to the box to help stop the run which will leave the Spartans all alone on the outside. Bennie Fowler is the major deep threat for Michigan State and he will need to win against Roby veritcally to help the Spartan run offense out. Tony Lippett and Macgarrett Kings Jr. are the other two receivers who will need to have big games for the Spartans to exploit the Buckeyes weakness on the back end.

What Ohio State has to do on offense

The Buckeyes will face their toughest match yet this Saturday. While their rushing offense has been playing at a very high level this season, they will need their passing offense to show up Saturday as well in order to beat this Spartan defense.

In order to get Miller and Hyde going on Saturday the Buckeye coaches will need to rely on extra blockers against the Michigan State front. The Spartans initially will not play with 8 guys in the box as they will have confidence in their front seven, which they should. Heuerman will be key on Saturday for Hyde’s success, as he will need to occupy the Spartan linebacker in his gap. Expect to see several pulling guards when Hyde runs as well. The Spartans play their linebackers extremely close to the line so guards Marcus Hall and Andrew Norwell, as well as center Corey Linsley, will need to play their best games of the year. When Miller runs, the Buckeyes can use Hyde as an extra blocker to spring him to the next level. If the Buckeyes can get Hyde and Miller to the next level, that is where they can do their most damage. That will also force both safeties to cheat up more, which will leave the no fly zone a little more open.

Michigan States corner back, Darqueze Dennard, has declared the Spartan secondary a no fly zone. On Saturday night Philly Brown, Devin Smith, Evan Spencer, Jeff Heuerman, Dontre Wilson, and Chris Fields will have to operate in that restricted air space. The Spartans possess one of the best corner combinations in the country and play some of the best man coverage you will see in college football. Their corners can press and run with most receivers. However, their safety play is where the secondary is vulnerable. Both safeties are hard hitters, but neither really excels in pass coverage. Philly Brown and Jeff Heuerman will be the keys to the Buckeyes success Saturday night. Both present match up issues for the Spartan safeties and linebackers. Browns speed in the slot has been an issue for all teams this year, and Heuerman’s combination of speed and size should prove to be successful against slower linebackers and shorter safeties. If the Buckeyes can get these two guys going, then it opens up down the field shots for Smith and Spencer, which will stretch this Spartan defense beyond its capabilities.

One more key for the Buckeyes. Herman needs to put the pedal to the medal against this defense. Go up tempo as fast as the offense can go. Against Indiana the Spartan defense looked on their heels at times against the Hoosier tempo. The Spartans depth, and Hoosier’s inability to link drives together, is what won Michigan State the game. However, this Buckeye offense is much more efficient and could really hurt this Spartan defense with their tempo.

What Michigan State has to do on defense

One word- contain. Stopping this Ohio State offense is nearly impossible. However, what teams like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern were able to do was force the Buckeyes in to long drives. Force the offense to get in to third down and convert multiple times on a drive. That limits big plays, and also limits further possessions.

The Spartan defense does not do much special. They will most likely stay in a base package the majority of the game. They do not sub often unless they play against tempo. They like to stunt defensive lineman inside, bring double A gap pressures with their linebackers, and blitz with their outside linebackers and corners. The key to their pressures is forcing the Buckeye offense in to long passing situations. While Miller is an improved passer and pocket navigator this year, he still has a tendency to revert back to old mechanics. The Spartan defense will have to get him back to his old ways this Saturday. They will have to force Miller in to mistakes. The Spartans can win this game with Hyde running for 150 yards. They will not win it if Miller gets loose running and throwing. Containing Miller, forcing long drives, and forcing turnovers are the Spartans keys to slowing down this Ohio State offense.

The Chase is real. Spartans vs Buckeyes. Buckle up, this is gonna be a wild one. Prediction: Ohio State 34 Michigan State 23

Thanks to the Big Ten Network show The Journey we get an in depth look at what happens at The Game from a point of view we seldom ever get to see.