The Spread, Week 15: Auburnt

As expected, we are now down to just two undefeated major conference teams. All that hand-wringing over how we would deal with the glut of perfect seasons seems silly now. Assuming both Florida State and Ohio State take care of business (which is a big assumption, at this point), the national title game matchup is an obvious choice, right?

Of course not.

Those in SEC country are having a hard time dealing with the fact that they very likely will not have at least one representative in the national game for the first time in eight seasons. Auburn AD Jay Jacobs is going full Kubler-Ross on this one, already covering denial (“A one-loss SEC [champ] can’t get left out. It’s impossible.”) and anger, calling the potential snub a “disservice to the nation.” Baby steps, Jay, baby steps.

Auburn has a devastating 14-point loss to 9-3 LSU on their resume though, and that’s going to be enough to keep them out if they don’t get help. That help would almost have to come from Michigan State, since the only other possibility is Duke beating Florida State, which isn’t even a sentence I should have to type about football. I mean, it would be awesome, but let’s not get crazy.

And should the Spartans be victorious Saturday night (which is entirely possible), then shouldn’t they finally enter the conversation? Mark Dantonio thinks so, and I agree. They have a dominant defense that has held half of their opponents under seven points. No one has scored more than 28 on them, and the two times that happened, the Spartans put up 40+ of their own.

By contrast, Auburn held only Western Carolina to less than seven points and gave up 28+ four times. Six of their eleven wins are by fewer than 10 points, and again, their loss was by 14. Michigan State won every game by at least 10, and only lost by 4, to a Notre Dame team that is only one game worse–record-wise–than LSU.

It’s actually Missouri (Auburn’s SEC championship opponent who just might make all this discussion irrelevant) that has a good argument to be favored over Michigan State. Missouri’s loss is a three-point double-overtime drop to 10-2 South Carolina and occurred without their starting QB in the lineup. Missouri has been far more dominant than Auburn, winning only once by fewer than 10 points. I would still give the nod to Michigan State if that were the choice, but it would be a little tougher.

But why stop there? It’s not like Alabama has reason to believe that winning their own division should be a pre-requisite to a national title berth, so even they have come up with a way to get back in the picture. You might think that a rematch of the most thrilling upset of the season would make a great national title game. It wouldn’t. We just did this. Have you forgotten?

As much as the common sports fan thinks he doesn’t want to see Ohio State in the national championship game, it is our duty to spare them from these other, far less desirable scenarios. We must beat Michigan State on Saturday. Not doing so would be a disservice to the nation.

Maryland Basketball Preview

OSU LogoOhio State, fresh off an offensive explosion against North Florida last Friday and sporting a new #3 ranking in the latest AP poll take on the Maryland Terrapins Wednesday in Columbus in the Big Ten/ACC challenge. Since its inception in 1999, Ohio State is 6-6 in the challenge while Maryland is sporting a much better record at 10-4. This year’s contest in the challenge figures to be a good test for the Buckeyes’ defense as Maryland is averaging over 74 points a game and shooting almost 46% from the field despite losing big man Alex Lin to the NBA draft last season. Jake Layman is leading the way, scoring 16.4 points a game and is followed on the roster by a familiar face in Evan Smotrycz. Smotrycz is in his first year with Maryland and is a transfer from Michigan averaging 13.7 points a game. Both present matchup problems for Ohio State because Layman is a 6-8 Guard who will most likely have a shorter player in 6-4 Lenzelle Smith Jr. guarding him and Smotrycz is a 6-9 Forward who likes to play facing the basket

Ohio State is sporting a little bit more of a balanced attack with guards Lenzelle Smith Jr. and Aaron Craft and center Amir Williams each averaging 11.3 points per game. Add in guard Shannon Scott’s 11.0 points per game and you have four players averaging basically the same score each night, making it hard for a defense to key on one or two possible players.

This game’s storyline will most likely come down to how Ohio State’s defense will do against these Maryland Terrapins. Ohio State is currently holding opponents to 53.3 points per game which is good for second best in the country. Thad Matta’s trademark defense has also been the highlight of the season so far for the Buckeyes as the offense is still trying to find its true identity. Look for Ohio State to key on Layman and Smotrycz and pull out a ten point win.

The Big Ten Champhionship Players to Watch

BIG Champ

Whenever Michigan State and Ohio State get together there are always NFL caliber players littered all over the field. Here are a few guys to watch Saturday who will have a large impact on deciding who will be crowned the Big Ten Champions.

Michigan State

Connor Cook, Quarterback #18- Cook is a quality game manager for Sparty. He runs their system at a high level of efficiency. Cook is asked to throw short to intermediate underneath routes and let his receivers gain yards after the catch. Cook only averages 6.97 yards per attempt on the season which further enforces what he is asked to do for the offense, however he can push the ball down field off of play action as he possesses an above average arm. While Cook looks like a statue when he first steps on the field, he does a good job of navigating the pocket and escaping pressure to gain a few yards and prevent negative plays. There will not be many opportunities to pressure Cook on Saturday, as they like to get the ball out of his hands quickly, however with the Buckeyes recent struggles in the secondary, expect Cook to take a few more shots down field and possibly find his big play target.

Bennie Fowler, Wide Receiver #13- Fowler is Cook’s favorite down the field target. He’s averaging 16 yards a catch, for 6 touchdowns on the season, and his long was a ridiculous 87 yard catch that can be seen below. Fowler is an average size receiver, at 6’1 212 pounds, who possesses adequate speed, but generally his separation comes from corners biting on play action. Roby will most likely be matched up on Fowler in man situations. It will be important for Roby to keep Fowler in check on Saturday, or the secondary could be in for another poor statistical outing in the biggest game to date this season.

Max Bullough, Middle Linebacker #40- Bullough isn’t going to flash to you on Saturday. He may have a double digit tackle day, but his impact comes in his leadership and knowledge. Bullough is a senior middle linebacker who is familiar with this Buckeye offense and will have his defense well prepared on Saturday. He is defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, on the field coach. He will be called upon to blitz on occasion, and is very capable of making plays in the box or in space, but Bullough’s impact is as much intangible as anything he puts on the stat sheet.

Shilique Calhoun, Defensive End #89- While Bullough is the brain and leader of the Spartan D, Calhoun does the heavy lifting on the line. Calhoun has registered 7 sacks and 16 tackles for loss on the season. He is an absolute monster of an athlete and will line up at either end position, which will pose a serious challenge to both Taylor Decker and Jack Mewhort. Luckily for both tackles they have faced a monster at defensive end/linebacker once this year with Khalil Mack. Calhoun is not quite the athlete that Mack is, none the less he will have an impact Saturday in pass rushing Miller, and stopping Miller and Hyde in the run game.

Denicos Allen, Outside Linebacker #28- Allen has the size of a safety at 5-11 218 pounds, but he plays much larger than that at outside linebacker. He is the play maker for this Sparty defense as he leads the team in tackles (83), and is second, by one in, tackles for loss (15). Allen’s impact on Saturday may be felt more if Narduzzi decides to use him as a spy on Miller. While spying Miller has not always proved to be the most efficient method of defending him, since Miller is an improved passer, it may help to contain one of the two headed monsters in the Buckeyes rush attack. Also watch for Allen to blitz off the edge, as Narduzzi likes to dial up exotic blitzes on second and long or third and long.

Ohio State

Corey Linsley- While this may not be the sexy pick, Linsley may be the most important factor in determining the success of this Buckeye offense. Linsley calls out the protection and identifies blitzers which is vital against this aggressive defense. Not only that, but the majority of the Spartan defense blitzes come through the A gap. Watch Linsley on Saturday night as he will be a busy busy man. If Linsley is successful in reading potential blitzes and adjusting protection properly, then the offensive line and offense should be quite successful.

Braxton Miller- Miller’s intelligence and preparation will be tested this week. He will face a defense that is loaded with NFL talent and is very disciplined. The Spartans will line up mainly in man coverage, and challenge the Buckeye wide receivers one on one. There will come a time in this game where Miller will have to throw open one of his receivers, and that is where we will see the improvement he has made as a passer. Miller has transformed himself in to a quarterback that is an athlete, and Saturday night will be one of his greatest tests. Miller will have to make big time throws, take care of the ball running and throwing, navigate the pocket and scramble when necessary, and make the correct reads in the option game. A lot will be rested on Miller’s shoulders Saturday night. Buckeye fans will see how far this young man has come in mastering the art of quarterbacking, and where he will need to improve to reach his full potential.

Devin Smith- The Devin Smith that is playing in this game this year is twice the receiver he was last year against Sparty. Smith’s main improvement has come in his route running ability and preparation. He and Braxton have developed a chemistry on their timing patterns, especially on come back routes and back shoulder throws. Smith has also improved on running his deep patterns. He understands how to manipulate safeties and corners to create more space for Braxton to throw in to. Smith was huge in this game last year. He will most likely be matched up against the Spartans best corner, Darqueze Dennard. Dennard will present a good physical challenge to Smith, has he will try and jam Smith at the line, and then turn and run with Smith as he gets vertical. Smith and Dennard will be a very entertaining match up on Saturday night.

Carlos Hyde- Hyde will face his greatest challenge yet this Saturday night. The front seven of Michigan State is daunting. They play their linebackers close to the line, and make a living off of stuffing the run. Hyde’s draft stock and hype could simmer down or sky rocket depending on his performance Saturday night. If his offensive line is able to get off their initial blocks and get to the Spartan linebackers, expect Hyde to be very successful. In my opinion, I think that will happen. I expect Herman to inject a lot of tempo Saturday night, and I do not think the front seven of Michigan State has seen a large and athletic offensive line like Ohio States. Hyde should have a good amount of success against this front, as the Spartan front will have to account for Miller as well. If the Buckeyes can stretch the field vertically with Smith, Hyde should have even more success. Hyde’s importance in pass protection can not be understated either. Hyde struggled late in the game against Wisconsin as Chris Borland often blew Hyde in to Miller on blitzes, but Hyde should be in better shape and able to withstand the duties of pass protection as well as toting the rock 20 times.

The Buckeye Defense- As a whole, this unit was abysmal last week. Good news for this defense; this Spartan offense is pedestrian at best. They live off of short throws and yards after the catch. Their run game is decent, but nothing like Wisconsin’s. Their offensive line is solid but can be moved. Bottom line for the Buckeye D: there is no reason for the Spartan offense to have success Saturday night. If the defensive line does not get home then they will need to get their hands up to deflect passes. I do not expect any surprises from MSU. They make take more shots down field, but their receivers should not get separation from Grant or Roby. They run it right at you, and when they run play action it is generally only with two receivers running the routes. Linebackers should not bite on the play action since the Spartan run game should not be very effective. The secondary will face one of the few receiving core, in the Big Ten, that does not have a premier receiver. This defense has more talent, speed, and size than the Spartan offense, what they have been lacking is discipline and focus. If they can muster up a tiny bit of that Saturday night they should have a successful night against a very basic Spartan offense.

B1G Power Rankings- Week 15

1.) Ohio State (12-0)- Beat TTUN 42-41. Win this week against MSU and OSU will play for the National Championship. No pressure right?

2.) Michigan State (11-1)- Beat Minnesota 14-3. It comes down to this for MSU beat OSU in the B1G CCG and go to the Rose Bowl or lose to OSU and go to the Rose Bowl.

3.) Wisconsin (9-3)- Lost to PSU 31-24. A disappointing end to a really good season. Wisconsin will continue to be a top B1G team for many years to come.

4.) Iowa (8-4)- Beat Nebraska 38-17. Kirk Ferentz brought back some magic this year. Every time his seat gets hot he pulls off a good year to save his job. It happened again.

5.) Nebraska (8-4)- Lost to Iowa 38-17. For some reason the Nebraska AD and Chancellor have decided to keep Bo Pelini as their head coach. Until they get rid of him they can expect to stay a 8-10 win team every year. Never a champion.

6.) Minnesota (8-4)- Lost to MSU 14-3. Minnesota is the surprise team of the year no doubt. They have an identity finally. They are a running team that plays ball control and good defense. If Jerry Kill can stay healthy they are a team to reckon with going forward.

7.) Penn State (7-5)- Beat Wisconsin 31-24. Penn State has a lot going for it and with lesser penalties in place they could be a great team in a year or 2. Bill O’Brien is exactly who they needed now they just have to keep him.

8.) Michigan (7-5)- lost to Ohio State 42-41. Brady Hoke cooled his seat and Al Borges saved his job. The disappointing season will keep going as they head to a bowl game.

9.) Northwestern (5-7)- Beat Illinois 37-34. The Wildcats ended their dreadful season on a high note beating their rivals. Coach Fitz has a lot to work on this off season.

10.) Indiana (5-7)- Beat Purdue 56-36. The Hoosiers are a decent team but if they dont find a way to play solid defense then they will never take the next step to being a good or great team.

11.) Illinois (4-8)- Lost to Northwestern 37-34. The Illini improved greatly this year even if the record doesnt show it. They have a ways to go but you can tell they are on the right track.

12.) Purdue (1-11)- Lost to Indiana 56-36. Purdue’s season is over and thank goodness it is.

All B1G awards announced

For a full list of all the players you can go to BTN.COM

MotSaG Top 25- Week 14

1.) Ohio State
2.) Florida State
3.) Auburn
4.) Michigan State
5.) Alabama
6.) Missouri
7.) Oklahoma State
8.) Baylor
9.) Arizona State
10.) South Carolina
11.) Stanford
12.) Northern Illinois
13.) Central Florida
14.) Oregon
15.) Clemson
16.) Duke
17.) Oklahoma
18.) UCLA
19.) LSU
20.) Wisconsin
21.) Louisville
22.) Cincinnati
23.) Texas
24.) Fresno State
25.) Miami Fl

– Yes I am a homer and no I don’t care. Ohio State has done everything it can to go 12-0 this year and 24-0 over the last 2 years. Florida State has a serious issue not knowing what is going to happen with Jameis Winston. Auburn and Missouri and Alabama are all fighting for the right to be called SECs best team. Michigan State is the last thing standing in the Buckeyes way to getting to the BCS NCG. With a win on Saturday they will play for the title and get the shot they always wanted to so they can prove the naysayers wrong.

– After the top 6 teams nothing else really matters everyone else is waiting to see how things pan out this weekend to see what all the bowl match-ups are going to be. It will be a crazy weekend that is for sure so get some rest and enjoy the games.

Three Yards and a Cloud of Links

Three Yards and a Cloud of Links is Men of the Scarlet and Gray’s newly renamed, semi-regular curated look at items that would interest the casual and hard-core Ohio State fan. These include news items, interesting blog posts and the occasional meme you’ve probably already seen. It’s all here and it’s all for you. Have a tip that should be included in the next TYAACOL? Drop us a line at motsag@gmail.com or through our Contact Page.

A Big Upset with Big Implications: As the Buckeyes headed home from the state up north back to Columbus, they watched #4 Auburn stun #1 Alabama in one of the most entertaining games I’ve personally ever witnessed. Luckily for us, Buckeye wideout Frank Epitropoulos was recording the reactions around the bus when the Tigers scored the game winning touchdown. Here’s the joyful reaction from the team he posted on his Instagram account: Buckeyes Celebrate Auburn Win

The team is obviously happy because the Buckeyes are now the #2 team in the country. With a win against Michigan State in the B1G Championship (no easy task), Ohio State could be playing for the BCS National Championship. But let’s worry about the Spartans before throwing a party.

Let the Debate Begin: Florida State and Ohio State are the only two remaining undefeated teams in BCS conferences. Conventional wisdom says we have our two teams for the national title game. But of course ESPN and the rest of the national media want to tell another narrative to anyone who will listen. Should a one-loss SEC champion jump an undefeated Ohio State team? Cleveland.com gives the fairest look at this situation, laying out the facts of both teams’ respective season. Of course it’s just a bunch of nonsense and there is no way that Ohio State is going to be jumped by a one-loss SEC champion. But it’s something that needs pointed out or rather you should be forewarned about because the national media is going to beat this drum all week long. My advice? Avoid ESPN and other media outlets that don’t like Ohio State, which is pretty much almost everyone. I know you won’t see me on social media as much this week.

Buckeyes on the Court: The Buckeyes’ men’s basketball team had a great performance on Friday, destroying North Florida by a score of 99-64. The shooting for the Bucks was red hot, as they made 69.2% of their shots. This is the sixth best shooting percentage in a game in school history. Ohio State was also pretty sharp behind the arch, hitting 14 three-pointers. LaQuinton Ross finally broke out of his shooting slump, hitting four three pointers and finished with 17 total points. Amir Williams had the most points with 18. Amedeo Della Valle had a career best game with his 17 points, while also leading the team in three-point shooting (five three-pointers). It was a great performance for a Buckeye team that had been struggling offensively this season and coach Thad Matta had to be encouraged by his team’s play. Hopefully this was the game that awakened the team offensively.

Beating TTUN: I saved the best for last. Ohio State players took to Twitter to express their feelings on beating TTUN. It ranged from pure jubilation to thankfulness to the realization of what is now at stake after a hard fought victory. Reactions:

And finally I think wide receiver coach Zach Smith said it best:

The chase is certainly on. And the Buckeyes with a win this Saturday will cap off another magical season and a shot to win it all.

Buckeyes land a big time recruit

osuHelmet4star_recruit_iconFresh off their win over that most hated team from up north the Buckeyes managed to snag a recruit from the state of Florida. The 2015 recruit becomes the 2nd player in the class that will be sizable to say the least since it the year OSU is allowed to go back up to 85 players. Ohio State landed a recruit they have a need for in a position they will be light in. So here are the details on your newest member of Buckeye Nation…

download

Jeremy Birmingham of ElevenWarriors.com broke the news via Twitter a few moments ago…

Jamel Dean is a 6’1″ 185 lbs 4 star CB from Cocoa, Florida. Jamel who is a multi-sport star from Florida is a burner in the speed dept. He runs track at a very high level and has the cover skills to shut guys down. He has been an Ohio State lean for some time but had offers from the likes of Miami FL and Florida. No doubt in my mind this highly rated recruit will get a lot of attention in the next 15 months before signing day 2015 but OSU locked him up early. 247Sports ranks him a 4 star and the 167th best recruit in the country. Scout ranks him a 3 star. ESPN ranks him a 4 star and the 197th best recruit in the country.

You can read an interview I had with him from back in August by clicking this link…

If you want to follow Jamel on twitter click @jamel_dean15

To see his highlights click here…

5 Quick Thoughts on Today’s Games!

1. #3 Ohio State at Michigan (11am CST ABC): Outside of possibly South Carolina, Michigan has been the most unpredictable teams in the country. They have impressive wins over Notre Dame and Minnesota, but nearly lost to Akron and Connecticut (who have 5 wins combined) in back-to-back weeks and needed 3 overtimes to beat a dissipated Northwestern team (which hasn’t won since Mike Greenberg gave them a “pep talk” prior to playing my Buckeyes). All that being said, this game is at the Big House and the Wolverines would love nothing better than to finish their regular season by ending the Buckeyes’ 23-game winning streak and essentially their national title hopes. The only thing I worry about is Jeremy Gallon having a big game as the Buckeyes’ secondary have given up several huge individual receiving performances this season (i.e. Wisconsin’s J. Abbrederis with 10 receptions, 207 yards, 1 touchdown and Penn State’s A. Robinson with 12 receptions, 173 yards 1 touchdown. Gallon is 16th in the nation in yards per game so I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous about him having a big game on Saturday. The Wolverines have lost four of their last six games this season and eight of their last nine against the Buckeyes (they won in ‘11 in the Denard Robinson “spoon-feeding game”). That means Coach Meyer’s focus this week was likely to ensure his team doesn’t approach this game as if it will be one that will just be given to them. He will make sure they don’t look ahead to their matchup with the Spartans in the Big Ten Championship game. This is a classic trap game and if we combine that with it being one of the most intense rivalry games in the country, this game will surely be closer than it should be on paper. Vegas has my Buckeyes favored by sixteen points but I’m not so sure about that. I hope the Wolverines get a huge dose of Carlos Hyde and Braxton Miller has a big day on the ground. Buckeyes win, but I don’t think they cover the spread.

2. #24 Duke at North Carolina (11am CST ESPN2): We move from the biggest rivalry in college football to the biggest rivalry in college basketball … only in football. This is a matchup that doesn’t usually means much to anyone beyond the fans of these two teams, but this season it means a lot. If the Blue Devils win today, they clinch the Coastal Division of the ACC and will play Florida State in the championship game. They can still win the division if they lose today, but they would then need help from Miami and Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels started the season 1-5, but have reeled off five straight coming into today. Although, their second half of the season was easier than their first half, the offense seemingly has finally figured out Larry Fedora’s spread offense. Going into the season I was big on Tar Heels quarterback Bryn Renner, but he was hurt, and Marquise Williams has played well in his place (60.8% passing, 13 TDs, 4 INTs). I think this is the reason Vegas is favoring the Tar Heels over the Blue Devils (-6) despite having three fewer losses on the season. All that being said, I love what David Cutcliffe has built at Duke. They beat Virginia Tech and Miami (albeit without their best player). What I think will be the difference is that I think Duke will commit fewer turnovers and that they will have at least one big fourth down conversion (their 7th in the nation in fourth down conversions). I have Duke winning outright and by a touchdown.

3. #1 Alabama at #4 Auburn (2:30pm CST CBS): I’d like to start by saying that I wish ESPN had been successful in their pursuit of this game; they wanted to make it the night game. I have no problem with the start time, but I hate that Gary Danielson and Verne Lundquist will be calling the game. Those guys get on my nerves — Danielson in particular. Let’s start by saying that I think Gus Malzahn will certainly be in the running for coach of the year (is Ed Orgeron eligible?) because we cannot forget that the Tigers were winless in the SEC last season and nearly lost to Louisiana-Monroe. This year, they walk into the Iron Bowl with a chance at the SEC West title! Also impressive is that Auburn is second in the nation in rushing yards per game because the top three is usually reserved for teams running the triple option (i.e #1 is Army and #3 is Navy). If you like these kinds of stats, Alabama has never beaten and Auburn team with nine or more wins (0-2). I’ve never been a fan of those kinds of things especially with a sample size of just two, but ESPN has mentioned it for two weeks. Alabama will play a lot of man-to-man on the outside, with floating safeties, and loading the box against the run. I also expect CJ Mosley to spy Nick Marshall for a lot early in the game. Saban will want Marshall to beat him with his arm if he’s going to beat him. That’s the right strategy, of course, but it’s the exact same one he executed against Cam Newton in 2010 (held him to just 39 rushing but allowed three passing touchdowns). The difference here is that Saban has the advantage of learning from that game. One of his mistakes in that game is that he let his foot off the gas with a 24-point lead at halftime and then had trouble getting his team energy back up in time. This time, if he gets up early, I don’t see him becoming passive. Some might disagree with me (I think those people may say VT or MSU), but I think this will be the best defensive line Alabama has faced all season. Dee Ford, Carl Lawson, and Montravius Adams are beasts and I think McCarron may either get sacked a few times or get hurried into a bad throw or two. All that being said, I think Auburn may see two things that not many teams have seen thus far this year from the Tide. 1. 5 WR sets 2. Chris Black making a name for himself. I think OJ Howard will be the player of the game as I think he’ll have at least two touchdown catches. If I were Nick Saban, I would have spent some time preparing for Jeremy Johnson at least a little bit this week because I really believe he’ll make a few appearances in this game. Saban will force them to throw the ball and Johnson can sling it. Alabama wins, but Tide fans will definitely have moments of nervousness, until they pull away late in the game.

4. A few more picks: Clemson over South Carolina (to break their four-game losing streak), Missouri over Texas A&M (because that Aggies defense can’t stop Franklin and company, but Johnny Football will play well today), Stanford over Notre Dame (won’t be close), USC upsets UCLA (Marqise Lee goes off), Georgia Tech over Georgia (we’ll miss you Aaron Murray!), and Florida State over Florida (I think we’ll see some Sean Maguire at QB today).

5. If I were playing fantasy college football: I’d start Taylor Kelly at QB (vs Arizona), Andre Williams at RB (at Syracuse), Marqise Lee (vs UCLA) and Dorial Green-Beckham (vs Texas A&M) at WR, OJ Howard at TE (at Auburn), and I’m going to separate defense and special teams. I’m starting Michigan State’s defense (vs Minnesota) and I’m taking Kansas State on special teams (at Kansas).

Hype Video

Ladies and Gentleman of Buckeye Nation. The greatest fan base in the Nation. We are less than 24 hours away from the kickoff for The Game.

Thanks to Ohio State Football for putting out this video.