Poll Dancing: Week Eleven

(This is a guest series by MotSaG reader Jason Nafziger. He’ll be taking a weekly look at the college football polls and pointing out the absurd, the laughable and the head scratchers. Please note that Jason is not talking about the BlogPoll. Or my ballot to the BlogPoll.)

Sorry the Dance is so late this week; I fell asleep during the BCS standings show Sunday night and just woke up. Not only was there absolutely no movement in the Top 10, but the top three teams are off this week, so the only hope for a major shake up would be Cam Newton being declared ineligible, which is becoming more of an inevitability with each passing day. My question is: If this happens before the season is over, what becomes of LSU, whose only loss (so far) would have to be forfeited?

The Poll Dancing Hypothetical and Totally Awesome Playoff (v. 1.2):

(1) Oregon vs. (16) Florida International
(2) Auburn vs. (15) Pittsburgh
(3) TCU vs. (14) UCF
(4) Boise St. vs. (13) Northern Illinois
(5) LSU vs. (12) Virginia Tech
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) Michigan State
(7) Stanford vs. (10) Alabama
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Nebraska

Again, very little change here. Florida International is technically leading the Sun Belt, so they get the automatic bid over Troy. The seeding of the last four teams is shuffled a bit, my best guess despite three of them having no AP votes. Also, Alabama and Michigan State swap places, creating a first round Big Ten showdown (to go with the almost-Big Ten showdown between OSU and Nebraska).

The Standings:

1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Boise State
5. LSU

Despite a few close calls, the order stands pat from last week, and there isn’t likely to be any change next week either.

The Breakdown (full Top 25): 24% SEC, 20% Big 12, 16% Big Ten, 16% mid-major, 12% Pac-10, 12% ACC, 0% Big East

Iowa By The Numbers

Numbers, numbers everywhere and not a drop to drink.

Statistically Speaking
Ohio State
Value (Rank)
Value (Rank)
Iowa
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 222.0 (13) 86.8 (5) Rushing Defense (ypg) Push
Passing Offense (ypg) 233.5 (50) 220.2 (70) Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 165.4 (4) 114.1 (21) Pass Efficiency Defense Push
Total Offense (ypg) 455.5 (17) 307.0 (16) Total Defense (ypg) Push
Scoring Offense (ppg) 41.6 (6) 15.0 (7) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 86.5 (4) 153.2 (60) Rushing Offense (ypg) Ohio State+
Passing Defense (ypg) 151.1 (6) 252.7 (35) Passing Offense (ypg) Ohio State
Pass Efficiency Defense 94.8 (3) 165.4 (5) Pass Efficiency Offense Push
Total Defense (ypg) 237.6 (2) 405.9 (46) Total Offense (ypg) Ohio State+
Scoring Defense (ppg) 13.6 (5) 30.8 (43) Scoring Offense (ppg) Ohio State+
Turnover margin +1.4 (2) +1.2 (5) Turnover margin Push
Penalty Yards/game 41.1 (17) 42.1 (18) Penalty Yards/game Push
Sacks (/game) 1.50 (90) 1.70 (44) Sacks Allowed (/game) Iowa
Sacks Allowed (/game) 1.90 (59) 1.70 (78) Sacks (/game) Push
3rd Down Conv. (%) 44.3 (37) 36.2 (27) 3rd Down Conv. Def (%) Push
3rd Down Conv. Def (%) 28.6 (4) 46.0 (25) 3rd Down Conv. (%) Push
Redzone Offense (%) 88.9 (17) 70.0 (10) Redzone Defense (%) Push
Redzone Defense (%) 71.4 (14) 87.2 (28) Redzone Offense (%) Push
 Legend
  Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
  Difference >25 in National Rank = Ohio State
  Difference >50 in National Rank = Ohio State+
  Difference >75 in National Rank = Ohio State++
  Differences >100 in National Rank = Ohio State+++

Presented without comment.

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

2010 Blogpoll Ballot, Week #12 (Draft)

SB Nation BlogPoll Top 25 College Football Rankings

Men of the Scarlet and Gray Ballot – Week 12

Rank Team Delta
1 Auburn Tigers
2 Oregon Ducks
3 Boise St. Broncos Arrow_up 1
4 TCU Horned Frogs Arrow_down -1
5 LSU Tigers
6 Wisconsin Badgers
7 Ohio St. Buckeyes
8 Stanford Cardinal
9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
10 Oklahoma St. Cowboys Arrow_up 1
11 Michigan St. Spartans Arrow_down -1
12 Alabama Crimson Tide
13 Arkansas Razorbacks
14 Missouri Tigers Arrow_up 1
15 Nevada Wolf Pack Arrow_up 5
16 Virginia Tech Hokies Arrow_up 5
17 South Carolina Gamecocks
18 Texas A&M Aggies
19 Oklahoma Sooners Arrow_down -3
20 Florida St. Seminoles
21 Miami Hurricanes
22 Arizona Wildcats Arrow_down -5
23 Northwestern Wildcats
24 USC Trojans
25 Syracuse Orange
Dropouts: Utah Utes, Iowa Hawkeyes, Mississippi St. Bulldogs, Kansas St. Wildcats, Penn St. Nittany Lions, Central Florida Knights, San Diego St. Aztecs

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

Better late than never. For some reason I couldn’t enter my ballot yesterday as per normal and couldn’t get it to work earlier today, either. But it’s finally made it.

I have once again flip-flopped TCU and Boise again. I’m like the John Kerry of the BlogPoll! I would also like to banish the Wisconsin Badgers and their douchelord coach from the rankings for 83 weeks, but I’m trying not to let personal bias interfere with the rankings.

I feel confident with 1-16 but after that, it’s somewhat of a crap shoot.

BlogPoll ballot behind schedule

I had a problem accessing my BlogPoll ballot, hence the draft ballot will be delayed until lunch time later this afternoon (technical difficulties). It should be up by then.

Week #11 – Open Thread and Live Penn State Chat

Another full slate of games today, including two important Big Ten games at noon today. We’ll have to be Northwestern and Indiana fans today. Can you smell an upset coming?

Also, as an FYI, I’ve updated the Twittering Buckeyes page with a handful of new Buckeyes on Twitter.

The Live Chat for the Penn State game can be found after the jump.

[Read more…]

Penn State by the Numbers

Statistically Speaking
Ohio State
Value (Rank)
Value (Rank)
Penn State
Advantage
Rushing Offense (ypg) 211.8 (19) 156.4 (68) Rushing Defense (ypg) Ohio State
Passing Offense (ypg) 244.0 (42) 189.6 (26) Passing Defense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency 164.3 (5) 130.2 (77) Pass Efficiency Defense Ohio State+
Total Offense (ypg) 455.8 (17) 346.0 (45) Total Defense (ypg) Ohio State
Scoring Offense (ppg) 42.0 (7) 20.1 (28) Scoring Defense (ppg) Push
Rushing Defense (ypg) 83.6 (4) 149.6 (68) Rushing Offense (ypg) Ohio State+
Passing Defense (ypg) 150.2 (3) 219.9 (61) Passing Offense (ypg) Ohio State+
Pass Efficiency Defense 94.9 (3) 125.8 (74) Pass Efficiency Offense Ohio State+
Total Defense (ypg) 233.8 (3) 369.4 (67) Total Offense (ypg) Ohio State+
Scoring Defense (ppg) 13.6 (3) 24.2 (82) Scoring Offense (ppg) Ohio State++
Turnover margin 1.44 (1) -0.22 (67) Turnover margin Ohio State+
Penalty Yards/game 38.8 (13) 27.8 (2) Penalty Yards/game Push
Sacks (/game) 1.67 (77) 1.00 (15) Sacks Allowed (/game) Penn State+
Sacks Allowed (/game) 2.00 (66) 1.44 (92) Sacks (/game) Ohio State
3rd Down Conv. (%) 44.3 (36) 30.1 (7) 3rd Down Conv. Def (%) Penn State
3rd Down Conv. Def (%) 29.2 (4) 42.5 (43) 3rd Down Conv. (%) Ohio State
Redzone Offense (%) 88.2 (23) 91.3 (112) Redzone Defense (%) Ohio State+++
Redzone Defense (%) 73.7 (23) 76.5 (97) Redzone Offense (%) Ohio State+
 Legend
  Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
  Difference >25 in National Rank = Ohio State
  Difference >50 in National Rank = Ohio State+
  Difference >75 in National Rank = Ohio State++
  Differences >100 in National Rank = Ohio State+++

Presented without comment.

As always, stats are grabbed from cfbstats.com.

Poll Dancing: Week Ten

(This is a guest series by MotSaG reader Jason Nafziger. He’ll be taking a weekly look at the college football polls and pointing out the absurd, the laughable and the head scratchers. Please note that Jason is not talking about the BlogPoll. Or my ballot to the BlogPoll.)

The Poll Dancing Hypothetical and Totally Awesome Playoff (v. 1.1):

(1) Oregon vs. (16) Troy
(2) Auburn vs. (15) Northern Illinois
(3) TCU vs. (14) Pittsburgh
(4) Boise St. vs. (13) UCF
(5) LSU vs. (12) Virginia Tech
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) Alabama
(7) Stanford vs. (10) Michigan State
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Nebraska

A little bit of shuffling from last week, and LSU and Michigan State replace Utah and Oklahoma in the field, giving the Big Ten and SEC three berths apiece. The Pac-10 has two and all other conferences have only their guaranteed champion slots. Remember that this exercise uses the AP poll to seed teams and award at-large berths, so an actual playoff might differ slightly, especially the last at-large spot held by Alabama (this would be Oklahoma State if I used the BCS standings).

The Standings:

1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Boise State

No change in order, but TCU’s decisive victory over a good Utah team moved them closer to Auburn than Boise State. I don’t think the remainder of their schedule can add any juice to jump up unless one of the top two falters though. These are the only undefeated teams left, and Auburn is going to have a tough time remaining perfect with Georgia, Alabama and presumably the SEC title game still to go.

5. LSU

All you need to know about the Tigers’ big win over Alabama is that Les Miles eats grass on a regular basis.

The Breakdown (full Top 25): 28% SEC, 24% Big 12, 16% Big Ten, 16% mid-major, 12% Pac-10, 4% ACC, 0% Big East

2010 Blogpoll Ballot, Week #11 (Draft)

I’m waffling with #3 and #4. One the one hand, BSU handled Hawai’i, the most prolific offense in D-1. On the other hand, we’ve got TCU’s convincing win over Utah, a supposed top 5 team. I personally think we’ve been overvaluing Utah.

I’ve been avoiding as long as I could, but I have to let Virginia Tech back into the BlogPoll. I will qualify every inclusion of the Hokie by reminding everyone that they lost to JAMES MADISON.

Everything else is more or less self-explanatory.

Week #10 – Open Thread

The Buckeyes aren’t playing, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be firmly in front of your TV following another day of football goodness.

Mid-afternoon update – I really thought it was going to be Purdue’s day and they were going to pull off the Upset of the Century (of the Week!) but it wasn’t meant to be. That being said, perhaps Wisconsin is more vulnerable than we initially thought and maybe it will be Indiana’s turn for the UotC (ofW).

And what about the LOLverines? 132 combined points? 1251 combined total yards? Did someone call “no tackling” before the game?

Early-evening update – I can’t figure out this LSU team. So much for that one-loss SEC team in the BCS title game, right? And bless Iowa State trying to go for two in OT. In a veritable windstorm.

What about Utah? Clearly they were over-valued by a lot of people (myself included). We’ll have to revisit their resume before the BlogPoll draft ballot. I guess that Pitt win wasn’t as impressive as we thought it was, Week One.

And congrats to Joe Paterno and his 400 win. That is an impressive feat.

For your weekend viewing pleasure

For the bye-weekend, MannyCincy has made another video for our enjoyment, filled with highlights from the Big Ten season.