There aren’t that many Saturday’s left for us to enjoy, but despite being late to the party (from a creative and mental hiatus), I am back for the rest of the season. That isn’t to say that I haven’t been paying attention, but this year work has been keeping me busy and on my toes!
To kick things off, this is a trap game! This weeks contest is slotted prior games with a pair of division foes from up north, so this game definitely has me on high alert. This late into the season, you have to bring your “A” game every week but as we have witnessed over the last two contests, there is a lot left to improve with so little time left.
Purdue The Giant Slayer
When it comes down to it in 2021, Purdue is a monster in underdog games. The de facto agent of chaos, Purdue has two chaos-inducing upsets against #2 Iowa in Kinnick Stadium and #3 Michigan State in West Lafayette. This weeks contest is located in Columbus, but Iowa lost big at home.
To put this into perspective, they are really good on offense and they trail Ohio State in passing yards/TD total by 183 yards and 8 TD’s. Ohio State is ranked 6th in the nation according to NCAA.com and Purdue sits at 8th. Ohio State is averaging 352.8 yards per game and Purdue is averaging 332.4 (20.4 yard difference), but Purdue has been surgical with a .705 completion percentage which is good for 5th in the nation, while the Buckeyes sit at 22nd with .666.
If the Buckeyes can make them one-dimensional and neutralize the passing game, they will surely win. On the ground, Purdue is 128th out of 130 FBS teams in rushing yards. In 9 games, they have rushed for 694 yards and 5 scores, with a 2.40 yards per rush attempt. They are also averaging 77.1 yards per contest. It is just a matter of playing sound defense.
Now defensively, this is a stout and active defense. They are ranked 28th in 3rd down defensive percentage (.347%), passing yards allowed (185.3), and a red zone defense (.724%). The only weakness is their run defense (60th, 144.4 yards per game), and what a perfect opportunity to correct errors from the last two weeks?
Jekyll and Hyde
It is no secret that this team has gutted it out in close contests against and they have depended heavily on the foot of Noah Ruggles. The heavy passing attack has lost some explosiveness and the running game hasn’t been what it was earlier in the season—the Buckeyes have to get it together.
The offensive line has to revert to what they were earlier on and the running game needs to be executed properly to balance out and keep their opponents on their heels. The line play has been atrocious and a lot of penalties and bad execution have stunted this offensive attack. Injuries have also been a factor, but on offense, they should get Wilson back this week.
On defense, it’s been rough. Besides the pressure (and constant holds) the Buckeyes are tied for first in sacks with 34 and in defensive TD’s with 6. So there is potential, but with the constant moving parts on defense, it is nearly impossible to know what actual defense this team possesses. They were carved up by Penn State and and Nebraska, but I have faith that they’ll right the ship.
The pieces are there but to win, they need a complete team effort. Stroud cannot stare down his intended receivers and he cannot take pot shots into tight windows. He’s been a treat to watch but he needs to protect the ball. The run blocking also needs a tweak. Those massive holes from before aren’t there and the execution is suspect.
Prediction: 34-24 Buckeyes
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