Buckeyes and the NFL draft
(Open Thread)

OSU FootballMike D’Andrea, Doug Datish, T.J. Downing, Ryan Franzinger, Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez, Roy Hall, Derek Harden, John Kerr, Brandon Mitchell, Drew Norman, David Patterson, Joel Penton, Quinn Pitcock, Antonio Pittman, Jay Richardson, Dre Riddick, Tim Schafer, Antonio Smith, Troy Smith, Harrison Till, Stan White Jr., and Justin Zwick.

These are the available seniors and juniors who declared. There are 23 players available, 18 of which I have heard of before LOL. I think that we will have 7-8 first day draft picks, including as many as 4-5 first round picks. I predict we will have 11 drafted players up to 14 tops. The NFL record is 14 draft picks from one school in a draft, which was set by the Buckeyes in the 2003 draft.

My only wish is for my Chicago Bears to somehow get thier hands on one or two of my beloved Buckeyes. I would love to see them get Gonzalez or Pitcock late in the first round, but I also hope they aren’t still available to draft that late in the round.

What say you?

This is an OPEN THREAD. I want all the MotSaG crew to make some predictions. Also all of our wonderful fans and contributors should chime in for some much loved Face Time.

The questions I would like answered are:

1. How many Buckeyes go in the first round and who?
2. How many go on the first day and who?
3. How many get drafted in total and who?
4. Does Ryan Franzinger get a free agent contract, just kidding.
5. Do we set a new draft record this year for either first rounders taken or total draft picks?

sportsMonkey’s predictions
It’s hard to predict this stuff so early… who knows which players will lay an egg during the combine (Ginn might not even participate in it). But, I’ll give it a shot:
How many/who – 1st round: Three in the first round… Ginn, Smith, and maybe Pitcock.
How many/who – 1st day: The above three plus four more: Pittman, Gonzalez, Patterson, and Richardson.
How many/who – overall: I think we pull another four, maybe five for an overall count of about twelve. Rounding out the picks might be White, Zwick, Penton, Datish, and Kerr.
Franzinger: Franzinger who?
Set a record?: Nope. Not this year. But twelve should be good enough for second place, right? Not too bad that OSU would hold those two NFL records.

el Kaiser’s predictions
I updated my esteemed colleague’s list to include Brandon Mitchell. I think people’s predictions will change with his inclusion.
1. I think also think 3 players go first round – Ginn, Pitcock and Troy Smith (in that order)
2. First day, I think we’ll have 7 go. The above 3, plus Gonzo, Pittman, Mitchell, and Patterson (in that order)
3. Overall I’m guessing 12 as well. I see Datish, Schafer, Antonio Smith, Penton, and Roy Hall (Ginn tackle notwithstanding) getting drafted at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised if Zwick gets signed as a free agent, but not drafted. Same for Stan White, Jr. and John Kerr.
4. Franzinger, a Philosphy major, goes on to great things in Real Estate in Westlake, Ohio.
5. If you count RE/MAX taking Franzinger with their first draft pick, we’ll come close to the record, but we won’t break it.

Zeke’s predictions
Based on college game performance and current height, weight, and speed, here’s where I see NFL GMs selecting our beloved Buckeyes in this years NFL draft. As mentioned before, the combine and workouts could shake up the draft order.
1. I think 2 players go in the first round – Ginn and Pitcock. I think too many NFL people will get hung up on Troy’s height. Unfortunate but I think it will happen. I wouldn’t be shocked if Ginn is the only Buckeye first round draft pick either.
2. First day, I think we’ll have 6 go: (Ginn and Pitcock round 1) Troy Smith, Gonzo, Pittman, and Patterson in rounds 2 & 3.
3. Overall, I’m guessing 11. I think Datish, Richardson, Roy Hall, Mitchell, and TJ Downing will be drafted at some point on day two.
4. Franzinger will be elected to the scout team hall of fame.
5. No first round or overall draft record this year.

Comments

  1. 1. Ted Ginn Jr., Troy Smith, and Quinn Pitcock in the first round. I’d guess at an order, but Donte Whitner’s spot last year showed me the folly of trying to do that (Datish is a dark horse to go in this round, I think).

    2. Anthony Gonzalez, David Patterson, Doug Datish, Brandon Mitchell, and Antonio Pittman will be the other first-day picks. Again, no order guessed at.

    3. Other than those eight, I can’t see anybody other than T.J. Downing and Roy Hall being worth a draft pick. I don’t know anything about NFL teams’ draft-day calculus re: long snappers, but Drew Norman might have a shot at a pick if they normally use the draft rather than free-agent contracts for that position – when was his last bad snap? Anybody know?

    So, that’s three in the first round, eight on the first day, and ten (maybe eleven) total. No record, and I’m going to ignore Franzinger (sorry, Ryan).

    Just a few thoughts on some of y’all’s picks:

    sportsMonkey: Justin Zwick?!? You’re kidding, right? If McMullen didn’t get a sniff, there’s NO WAY he’s going to. Jay Richardson on the first day? No chance. He’s not as good as Simon Fraser was, and Simon BARELY got drafted. Jay will get a free-agent contract and probably not make the roster, unless some coach/GM values the freak-out quotient of his bulging, crackhead-style eyes. Joel Penton? Is he better than Mike Kudla? – no, so he won’t get drafted, QEDMF. He MIGHT get a free-agent deal. John Kerr?!? Wow. He’s our fifth-(or sixth-)best LB, I’m guessing, in the eyes of the league. Credit for your cojones, though.

    el Kaiser: Not as wack as sM, but Tim Schafer and Antonio Smith? Sorry. They won’t even get TRYOUTS, let alone draft picks or free-agent deals.

    Zeke: no problems except for the aforementioned Jay Richardson.

    I’m a little up in the air about Stan White Jr. I think he’d probably get a free-agent deal and make it as a scout-team player available for injury call-ups, but I don’t know if STAN wants that – it’s probably more likely that he goes into coaching. In fact, if there were a contest to guess which draft-eligible Buckeye was most likely to end up as one of Tressel’s graduate assistants next year, Stan would be a no-brainer I think. What say you, MotSaG-ers? (jeebus that was hard to type)

  2. matsut –

    Thanks for chiming in! You have a good point with Drew Norman. Surprised our resident ex long-snapper (el Kaiser) didn’t back him up. 😉

    Just defending my picks… I think you don’t remember that Zwick was the highest touted freshman coming out of high school just four years ago… he would have started anywhere else in the country. He didn’t start at OSU, not necessarily because Smith was better than he in 2004, but because he got hurt in ’04, and when Smith filled in he mitigated how terrible the OSU O-line was that season. While Zwick was recovering, Tressel built the offense around Smith that year, and the rest is history. Don’t be surprised if Zwick has a good combine and interests some NFL teams. He’s a “classic” pro-style QB, with a laser arm.

    Second – Maybe Richardson isn’t as good as Fraser, but Fraser ended up being a stud. Check the history… OSU linemen and defensive backs have a great following in the NFL. They almost always go higher than what people think.

    I’ll give you Kerr as a free agent, but I’ll add Brandon Mitchell in his place as a draftee.

    IMHO, you can’t say that “Penton isn’t as good as Kudla, so he’ll go lower.” Each draft is apples and oranges. One year, lots of skill players get drafted, another year, lots of trench players. It cycles from year to year.

    I think Stan wants to be in the NFL. He can always come back in a year or two (like Fickell did), after he’s made a million or two as a third stringer. Personally, I keep wondering if/when Krenzel will start working for Tressel.

  3. Re: Zwick

    Yes, he was the highest touted QB coming out of high school, but he also performed terribly (post-signing) at the elite 8 HS QB combine. In fact, they now have a “Zwick rule” in place where they have to have SEEN every invited QB play prior to inviting them (he was invited because, as you mentioned, he was so highly touted). Honestly, I’d be shocked and amazed if Zwick had a decent combine. He’s a decent sized kid with decent arm strength, but his accuracy is awful (particularly when he’s under any sort of duress) and his decision making is lack-luster at best.

    Justin is merely a slightly improved version of his older brother (Jared); who was also highly touted (though not as much so, obviously) and was recruited by Tressel to YSU. He did nothing during his tenure at YSU (they converted him to an option-only QB after his first year, and he wasn’t incredibly successful at that), and eventually faded away from college football.

  4. sM: I do remember that about Zwick; it’s just that – in my opinion – he never really showed the psyche for the #1 job. No doubts about his size/arm from me. I just don’t think that he showed the necessary field general-type qualities (the decision-making that E refers to) back in 2004 – maybe he’s acquired them since then, I don’t know. I know McMullen had those qualities in spades, though – he was, I think, too much of a risk-taker for Tressel. I’ll stand by what I said, but I’ll grant you that MAYBE he gets a free-agent contract. It’ll be a shocker if he makes anybody’s 40-man.

    I still don’t think that Kudla OR Penton gets drafted, in any year, no matter what “cycle” is in effect. If Kudla’s rundown of the Minnesota RB last year didn’t get him drafted, Joel doesn’t have a prayer (and if the concept of “prayer” means anything, then Jesus-freak Joel should be a lock). The problem with both of them is lack of the quality that transcends both strength and speed – the ineffable “athleticism”. Neither has it.

    Good point about Stan, though…do I get any love for my hilarious characterization of Jay’s freaky-ass eyes? My girlfriend thought it was funny…

  5. ive always pointed ouy to my friends that jay richardson is so good becuase his eyes are so huge and he can see anything.

  6. I honestly think that Justic Zwick will get drafted. I also wouldnt be surprised if he ended up having a career in the nfl. Am I saying that he is great and he will come in to be a starter on a team, no…..what im saying is dont forget that with decent protection he does have the ability to make plays and throw the ball accurately. Now as far as how many go in the first round…..I dont know….i know 1 for sure and that is a gimme. Ted Ginn. Would I like to see Troy go in the first round yes, but I also think that teams are going to be worried about his height. But I do think that given the right situation he will become a good nfl quarterback.

  7. E –

    >>[Zwick’s] a decent sized kid with decent arm strength, but his accuracy is awful<< Short memory... Zwick's career CMP % is just a couple of percent below Smith's, and that includes his season with the terrible 2004 O-line (when he got sacked 13 times). Even Smith only made 55% that year. People really do forget that Zwick was a pretty good QB. Had he not been injured in '04, it's unlikely that Smith would have been anything more than a backup (especially after his booster error). Memories are made by "what have you done for me lately," and Zwick's last "chance" came when he coughed the ball up against Texas in 05. That's the last thing people remember about him, so he automatically becomes the "guy who lost his job." It really does come down to the combine, though. QB is one of those positions in the NFL where it really doesn't matter how stellar your college career was (see Favre, Warner, Rivers, et. al).

  8. Actually my anti-Zwick bias doesn’t come from a short memory, but rather from too good of one; he went to my high school (initially) and played on the same team as my younger brother (I played on the same team as his older brother). He (and his brother) were highly touted throughout high school, but I just never saw it (and I’m not the only one). He was a decent QB, but never an outstanding one, and usually played his worst when the game was on the line (not exactly the quality you look for in a starting QB).

    I’m sure he’s matured a good deal through his tenure at OSU, but every time I saw him play it seemed that he was still plagued by many of the problems he had in high school. He may very well be picked up by a pro team, but I seriously doubt he’ll be in the NFL for very long–teams won’t want to keep a back-up on their roster that’s only decent when the game is in hand.

  9. E – thanks for the insight.

    It’s interesting – your description of him doesn’t seem to match up with the “stats” of his history – he led his original HS team to the state championship as a freshman (!), before transferring to Massillon, where he set all sorts of Ohio QB records. He threw 40 TDs in his senior season, and is still third all-time in Ohio for total yards.

    Your little brother played on a team where his QB threw for 40 TDs and 3,300 yards in a single season, and you guys describe him as “only decent”? To me, it sounds like a bit of a stretch to say that someone who amassed 40 TDs in a season, and set almost every Ohio QB record along the way, only performed well after the “games were in hand.”

    At any rate, another point I could make is that one could argue that there’s a world of difference between the way a high-school QB plays and how that same QB would play after spending five years being developed by the best coaches in the country, and playing with some of the best WRs in the country. There’s no reason why an OSU QB shouldn’t be a pro prospect after spending five years in the program (with the obvious exception of Bellisari – ugh).

    However, I totally agree that Zwick is an unknown, and it would be a nice “bonus” if he got picked up. Talent or not, he lacks experience, and that’s something that he’ll have to build up if he wants a shot on someone’s 40-man.

  10. E –

    Sorry! I just caught what you said here:
    he went to my high school (initially) and played on the same team as my younger brother

    It seems like you’re talking about Orville High? Not to be argumentative, but wasn’t Zwick the Orville QB at age 14? That’s a loooooong time ago, in QB years.

  11. As far as Patterson being drafted so easily and Penton not is crazy. You can even look at the stats. Yes Penton played in 2 more games but Patterson had more time on the field to off set this.

    Penton 20 tackles 3 -20yds and 2 sacks -14yds. Healthy!
    Patterson 22 tackles 3 -5yds and 0 sacks. Bad knees (surgery), prone to injury.

    I’d take Penton over Patterson in a heartbeat because he’s a proven workhorse, healthy, and has a great attitude (Wuerffel Trophy). But Patterson get’s all the face time and media attention (Captain) which unfortunately influences draft pics so hopefully Penton does well at the Combine and the draft pays more attention to the player than the media.

  12. sM, yeah I was referring to his tenure at Orrville. You could say he led his team to a state championship, or you could say that their star running back (who won state in the 100m dash that year and the year prior), stiff defense, and talented junior class (which is a big reason Zwick waited until his junior year to transfer to Massillon) won that title.

    Yes, he was a YOUNG kid (though he was 15 as a freshmen; his parents had him start school late–a growing trend amongst youngsters these days), but the problems that plagued him those two seasons have followed him throughout his career: apply pressure, watch him fold. He’s not a bad kid (though his father is a huge prick), I just think he’s been over-rated as a QB throughout his career. That’s not to say he’s a bad QB, just to say that he’s been the victim of being surrounded by great teams throughout said career.

    I could very well be wrong, and obviously have an anti-Zwick bias (as I said), but I just don’t think he’ll do incredibly well at the combine and won’t last long in the pros (if he makes it there at all) based on watching him through his career. I know the numbers disagree with what I’ve argued, and I may eventually have to eat crow, but this is my gut feeling and I’m going with that.

  13. E – WAY cool inside info, man. Thanks for sharing it!

    This is what’s cool about online communities like blogs and forums… this is the stuff you don’t hear from the main media.

    Make sure you come back if/when Zwick lays an egg. Tell everyone reading a big “told-ya-so!”

    Thanks again!

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