Open Thread and Common Opponent Data – OSU/UM

How’s THAT for a quick season? Is it just me?

Tomorrow the top-10 ranked Buckeyes will play The Worst Michigan Team In History. Seriously. In 111 years, no OSU team has faced a statistically worse UM opponent.

UM fans, if you think that makes Buckeye fans breathe easier or act overconfident, guess again. Games like this always make me nervous. On paper, OSU should have an easier time with the Wolverines tomorrow than they had against I-AA Youngstown. Which is precisely why I’m hoping the OSU team doesn’t think of it that way. If there’s one weakness with this current class of senior leaders, it’s that time and time again they’ve failed to take the big games seriously. Cakewalking into Florida. Infighting against LSU. Choking against USC.

However, if there is a reassuring theme from the Tressel era, it’s that he’s always been successful at getting the players fired up for Michigan. Even in his one loss, the overmatched Buckeyes kept it close into the fourth quarter.

Unlike what you’ve read in the papers, The Worst Michigan Team In History did not miss out on a bowl game this season. Actually, they earned a spot in the “Horseshoe Bowl,” and that’s how the Worst Players in Michigan History are looking at it.

Below are the tables comparing apples to apples between the good and bad guys.

The tables list the opponent(s) in chronological order down the first column, and include the following ‘important’ stats: total points (Pts), total yards (Yds), total first downs (Dwns), and turnovers (TOs); for each team and its opponent (Opp).

Table 1: The Worst Michigan Team In History

Table 2: Ohio State

The values in Table 3 indicate a team’s overall performance, percentage-wise, against the average numbers the common opponents collectively allow.

For example, in the table below, Michigan scored an average of 12% fewer points on these common opponents than what those opponents typically allow, while their defense allowed those same opponents to score 15% more points than what they would typically get, and so on.

Table 3: Performance against what Common Opponents Typically Allow

Notes:
The Worst Michigan Team In History gets a lot of guff for its poor offensive performance, but as the charts show, the defense deserves just as much, if not more, blame for this season’s woes. Some rationalize that this is a direct result of the poor offense – “the defense is on the field too much.” But this is absolute bunk. Look at OSU – statistically, their offense is about as poor as UM’s, but OSU is in position to win 10 games this year. Why? Because they have a decent defense. UM has no excuses.

Also: Holy 17 to 6 turnover ratio for OSU, Batman! To me, this is the most satisfying defensive improvement from last season, and the one that’s most likely to impact tomorrow’s game.

Only one question this week:

• Final score?

sportsMonkey’s Prediction:

• Ohio State wins its conference record 4th straight Big 10 Championship with a 932 to negative 50 drubbing of The Worst Michigan Team In History.
• Seriously, OSU, 42-13. Tradition and adrenaline keep it interesting in the first quarter or two, but the Buckeyes pull away and don’t look back.

el Kaiser’s Prediction:
First of all, let me thank sportsMonkey for handling Michigan week for me here at MotSaG while I was away on a business trip to the Freezing tip of Northern Maine, working in the FREEZING cold for hours on end. I had a grand total of 10 minutes of internet the whole week, so I was clueless to what was going on in the ‘Sphere. Of course I had no doubt that SM would skewer the The Worst Michigan Team In History because that’s just how he rolls. And thanks for the trips down Memory Lane, Monkeyman.

So my prediction is for a blowout, OSU: 47 UM: 10