I had this post ready to go when it was first announced that Joe Paterno had passed but then had read that this hadn’t been confirmed by the family.

Unfortunately the inevitable has come to pass, and so we join with college football fans around the country in honoring Joe Paterno.

In 2011, college football’s Year of Stupid, it should come as no surprise that with a third of the season already in the books, fifteen teams had still yet to lose, and that of those fifteen, exactly zero would finish the year unblemished.  It’s time now to take a final look at this year’s FraudWatch, an experiment in separating the contenders from the pretenders.

A quick refresher: I have defined a “fraud team” as one who makes it to Week 5 undefeated (and with at least four wins), yet ends the season with five or more losses (including all post-season games).  I look mostly at the two things mentioned above: opponents’ overall record and margin of victory.  Lots of bad opponents or close games usually indicates a fraud team.

I also added a couple of extra categories for teams that only showed some of the signs of fraudulence and predicted those teams to finish with anywhere from 1-4 losses.  I also declared all other teams “safe,” and guessed that none of them would lose more than 2 games.

The overall results were pretty good.  Of the two teams I identified as most fraudy, one (Texas Tech) achieved just that, somehow managing to lose 7 games.  The other, Kansas State, had a little better of a year than expected, losing only 3 games.

The next group (pegged at 3 or 4 losses) was the real eye-opener.  Both Illinois and Georgia Tech (my #3 and #4 teams) finished with 5 or more losses.  The other team in this group, Oklahoma State, became the only fraud-ranked team that should have been left off the list, losing just once all year.  Had these teams been included with the top two, I would have gotten 3 out of 5 correct, which isn’t too shabby.  Next year, I will not be so generous.

Of the three teams in the 1-3 losses group (‘Texas, Oklahoma, Wisconsin), two (OU, Wisky) were properly placed with 3 losses on the year, while Texas overunderachieved, dropping five games, meaning that 4 of my top 6 ended up being actual frauds.

Only one of the seven “safe” teams, Clemson, turned in a season with more than two losses.  And this points to the primary success of FraudWatch, accurately separating the contenders and pretenders with only a couple of missteps.

Changes to the system next year will most likely be merely aesthetic.  I’ll drop one of the categories and split teams into Frauds (5+ losses), Pretenders (2-4 losses), and Contenders (0-2 losses).  These groups will be divided relatively evenly based on how many total unbeatens there are.  If there is any unbalance, the Frauds and Contenders groups will be the heaviest, because that’s more fun.

The season is almost over and it can’t end any faster for our beloved Ohio State Buckeyes.  Off the field issues, poor performances by the coaching staff and players, and inconsistent play on the field by the “rotating” team leaders have left us where we are today.  Where are we?  Sitting pretty with a smooth 6-4 record and a more than realistic chance of losing the final two games of the season to finish 6-6.  Thanks poor decision-making of college students (tattoos…smh) and adults (covering up tattoo bartering exercise with lame excuses).

Speaking of poor decision-making…get a load of Penn State.  Someone should put together a case study on how to “not” run a school or athletic department in times of legal duress.  This should be written up after someone puts together a case study on how to “not” run a school or athletic department in times of NCAA duress.

I have a special place in my heart for a few schools.  They exist in this special place for various reasons.  Michigan is a no-brainer and this isn’t a Michigan preview, so we will just save that vitriol for another time thank you very much.  You would think that Wisconsin would be here, but really Wisconsin…they are the semi-attractive girl in high school that you know could look really good if she would just stop chewing on tree bark, smoking marlboro reds like a chimney, and eating the cafeteria pizza everyday (like a boss) in her spare time.  I’ve got no time for her right now and it really doesnt matter.  You already know how her story is going to end.  She will remain ugly (ie be Wisconsin) and pop out a bunch of large ugly kids (ie. Wisconsin recruiting) before the marvels of modern dentistry, exercise, and nicorette are bestowed upon her.

Penn State is the school that encounters most of my disdain.  Why Penn State?  Talk to any living alumni or current student and they will all tell you the same thing.  “Penn State does it the right way.”  Ya know…with honor and stuff.  We have all heard this for years no matter which team you supported.  Even the media has jumped on it in the past that JoePa and mighty Penn State can do no wrong.  While high profile schools like OSU and even Michigan have been in the crosshairs of the media and the NCAA for misdeeds (extra practice yielding no better on-field results for Michigan and tattoos yielding no better on-field results for Ohio State),  Penn State and everyone that associates with the school has been “white-towering” all of us.  They have been for years.  I have always held the belief that State College has protected the Penn State name from a lot of things that we will never hear about.  The only reason we have recently heard about the increasing number of incidents is because of Al Gore’s fantastic invention of the internet.  Players can’t escape the scrutiny of social media with message boards and twitter.  State College is the Ohio college geographical equivalent of Ada (Home base for Ohio Northern).  If Ohio Northern packed up its bags and left Ada, there would be no more Ada (Yes, the Hardees would close down fo realz).  Plain and simple, the lifeblood of State College (just like Ada on a larger scale) is Penn State University.  We have the same thing out here with Washington State in Pullman.  All of these schools are geographically located in areas of their respective states that no one wants to visit unless they are required (or maybe if you are on the run from the law).  I know that this may be a reach to someone that supports Penn State, but bear with me and hear me out.  Maybe, just maybe, it benefits State College to never place the school or its athletic department (aka the football team) in harm’s way if the town can avoid it.  I am not saying that everyone that lives there is a liar and wouldn’t do the honorable thing (that distinction goes to the coaching staff for the PSU football team), but let’s just say that it is not out of the realm of possibility that the people in authority turned their heads upon seeing some poor player behavior.  I know…it is a foreign concept that would never happen in Ann Arbor or Columbus.  I may be kidding a little bit only for the simple reason that it does happen in these places, but the sheer population does not allow for these things to swept under the rug as easily as it is in a place like State College.  I have often had (scary, scary) visions of Joe Paterno going all Coach Kilmer (Try and tell me you didn’t just pull a “I don’t want your life” and have visions of Vandermemes past.) on the State College PD for late night extra-curricular activities starring the players of the PSU football team.   The fight club mantra of “On a long enough timeline. The survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”  can also be fairly equated to major football programs.  There is absolutely no way that Penn State could be that clean.  It isn’t possible.  It is like saying that graduates of SEC schools outside of Vandy and Florida can read beyond an 8th grade level.  Sorry, it isn’t believable…not to me and not to anyone.  I actually hope that Mike McQueary is telling the truth, because if he did go to the police…well…it will make this cover-up (Another Penn State dirty little secret) look even worse.

*rant fin

Now onto the game?

Oh yeah…I guess there is a game this week between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions.  I guess there was also some type of email that was sent out telling OSU fans and students to keep it on the level this weekend and not be John Q. Wisconsin fan, John Q. Penn State fan, or even John Q. Michigan fan tailgating on the golf course.  I appreciate the sentiment, but if the roles were reversed and OSU was playing at any of these schools (maybe an exception of UM), we would not get the type of “quarter” that is being asked of us by our own university.  From urine bags to beer cans, Penn State fans have earned every bit of the upcoming vitriol this weekend and every weekend going forward.

One of the biggest surprises of the year (outside Denard’s annual post-September Heisman collapse), has been Penn State’s ability to put together a solid season rolling off to an 8-1 start prior to an almost expected loss to Nebraska.  Granted, this has been thanks to the B1G scheduling gods for putting Minnesota on the schedule 6 times before having to play anyone with a pulse until Nebraska rolled into town.

On offense, PSU has a solid ground game with Silas Redd who is averaging over 100 yards per game and basically is the PSU offense.  Penn State has been winning in spite of the terrible QB play (imo) of the walk-on Matt “Moxie” McGloin.  He is more of a blue-collar QB that will make plays through sheer will where a lack of talent may be exposed.  McGloin has at least eliminated the amount of interceptions this season with only three for the season.  It is going to be a lunchpail game for Penn State.  They are going to run the ball…A LOT.  This should help OSU’s defense, if they are ready to start tackling people on Senior day.  If Silas has 60+ yards in the 1st half, I would just start punching yourself in the balls over and over again instead of watching the second half.  This would be a perfect game to get Christian Bryant into the star position and have him run around and try to make something happen against the run game, because that guy is feast or famine against the pass (mostly famine).

Penn State has never had any issues with playing defense in the past and it wont be the case in this meeting either.  They are currently 3rd in the FBS in scoring defense, which is around the area where we normally find the OSU defense in this statistic…but not this year my friend.  OSU is 16th in this category, so the expectation will probably have this game in the low 20′s on either side.  As is always the case, there will be a defensive lineman that plays the game of his life against OSU and that one will most likely be Devon Still.  Still has had a very good season and should show favorably in this game if Shugarts isn’t available.  This terrifies all OSU fans…or at least it should, as OSU is craptastic at protecting the QB this season (dead last in the B1G in sacks allowed).  Did you know that Ohio State is 27th in the country in rushing offense without a single player in the top 14 rushers in the B1G?  I am not sure if they will hit their 200 yard rushing average in this game, but let’s hope for everyone’s sanity in Columbus that they get close.

Game Prediction:  PAIN and lots of ugliness.  This game will be won on the ground unless Moxie has another first half like he had  last season in Columbus.  Most of us on the OSU side would prefer the second half Moxie show up in Columbus again where he was a walking “pick 6″ machine. Obviously, the game will be won on the ground, which is the way Old Testament God intended in the B1G.

So that leaves us with the weekly questions……

1.) Will OSU slow down Silas Redd and hold him under 100 yards?
2.) Will OSU score any TDs?
3.) Over/Under passing attempts for Braxton set at 8.  What do you got?
4.) Who has more rushing yards Boom or Braxton?
5.) How many times will Braxton be sacked in this game?
6.) Greater number of media mentions?  OSU NCAA Issues or Penn State Issues
7.)What is the final score?

YNBA Score Prediction: 20-17 Ohio State

The salacious and horrific nature of the allegations were notable enough, but their presence in the context of the PSU program was what elevated the story to stratospheric-levels. Paterno and PSU had built a “brand” of integrity and honor unrivaled anywhere else in major college sports. To see such a well-perceived institution involved in the most heinous of acts drew attention beyond that which would normally occur.

Humans notice when an ivory tower crumbles. In other words, we’re suckers for when the self-righteously high and mighty are humbled.

Buckeye fans had a small taste of this when our goody-two-shoes Senator Sweatervest was forced to resign, and the blue-and-white disciples of all things JoePa were first in line to serve up a dish of crow.

OSU supporters were subjected to the faux righteous indignation of a school and its fans that boasted ethical integrity while ignoring their own shortcomings: brutal physical assaults on guest fans, “urine bomb” attacks on opposing schools’ marching bands, 46 players racking up 163 criminal charges from 2002-2008 alone, and even murder, just to name a few.

That the players and fans were engaging in all these activities at the same time their coaches and administrators were allegedly engaging in and covering up pedophilia is all you need to know about the real Penn State culture versus the false, idealized Penn State brand.

But reality rarely matters. Humans like to see high-profile figures fall because that allows us to assuage our own internal resentment towards social hierarchies. Yes, the same cognitive process at the heart of the Occupy Wall Street movement is what causes human beings to crave seeing their mighty opposers fall.

That tendency also causes a rational blindness that makes humans tend to support their own ivory tower inhabitants, regardless of whether support is actually deserved. What’s more inappropriate than large crowds rioting in support of Joe Paterno?

Now, perhaps one can argue that Joe does deserve support; perhaps he does deserve acknowledgement of his legendary status and of his role in college football history.

But the difference is that those of us disconnected from the fanatical fervor are rational enough to know that there is a time for such things, and that time is NOT NOW. Those mobbing acolytes are doing nothing but disrespecting Sandusky’s victims. They should be ashamed.

Years from now, when the anger wears off and the maturity of adulthood has deepened, will those rioters realize that they were knocking down lampposts and turning over news vans in defense of the right to cover up pedophilia?

The same shame should be felt by the thousands of anonymous Internet supporters of Penn State and Joe Paterno. Posting in forums, you can tell who they are as they White-Knight their Grand Leader with reasonings like: “hey let’s all remember these are only allegations;” “Paterno didn’t do anything illegal, here, he’s just a scapegoat;” “We’re protected from NCAA violations, not like Tressel;” and the absolute worst, “obviously I feel bad for the victims BUT…”

It’s sickening.

In fact, one can argue that this type of devotion reveals an even-more-damning question: do these supporters share a certain level of responsibility here? The primary motivation for the alleged coverup was the protection of the Paterno and Penn State brand. That brand has now been exposed as a toxic illusion. But was Penn State nation (as a generalism) playing the role of “enabler” to some extent?

The JoePa Tower can’t be built without the mortar of abject irrational support.

He had to go. Not only for the moral aspects of it, but he gave the PSU Board of Trustees no choice. They are chartered with protecting the university, and Paterno had become a terrible liability to them. They did everything they could to keep him from speaking: they canceled his press conference, they surrounded him with protection, they ushered him into cars and chauffeured him to practice. They bent over backwards to keep him quiet.

But it was more important for Paterno to be heard than to protect his university. He was visibly upset that his press conference was canceled. He opened his windows at night and chatted with the crowd. And finally, after the Board was initially willing to discuss his retirement at the end of the season, he issues a statement saying “I wish I had done more.” Six words that will cost the university millions when they are (rightfully) used by the victims’ lawyers in the years to come. But just like in 2002, Paterno thought of no one but himself.

And it’s only just beginning for the PSU Board. Yesterday’s news that the Federal Government was initiating an investigation, on the basis of potential violations of the Clery Act, was likely the straw that broke the camel’s back.

For those suggesting that six decades earns the right not to be fired by phone call, consider that a simple phone call ten years ago might have ended all this before it began.

So while we rack our brains trying to figure out how this all will end, perhaps remembering the bigger picture can be a useful exercise:

It’s just a game, folks.

It’s a game. Played, coached, and watched by human beings. And as human beings, we all share responsibility for one other.

We all have the responsibility to protect innocence. We all have the responsibility to control our level of support for the leaders of any institution we patronize. We all have the responsibility to act courageously, even in the face of awkwardness, danger, or self preservation; because it’s the human thing to do.

Jerry Sandusky fails at humanity, for obvious reasons. But Mike Mcqueary, Paterno, Tim Curley, Gary Shultz, and many others failed as well. They failed to courageously defend the innocent.

In contrast, the victims that came forward (and the loved ones that supported them) have real courage. Courage to willingly suffer through the indignity and pain of reliving the most scarring event in one’s life, over and over again in front of strangers, grand jury members, and other authorities. To voluntarily subject yourself to that indignity, all in order to prevent other people from encountering the same suffering as what you endured, takes authentic human courage.

Against that, Paterno & Co. and their rationally-blind supporters are nothing more than cowards. These same hypocrites recite the stanza from the PSU alma mater: “May no act of ours bring shame/to one heart that loves thy name.” (Unless someone’s legacy and agenda gets in the way, apparently.)

At its core, this misery is due to greed and a failure of courage. Greed in one form or another: for personal satisfaction, for power, for money, for status, for 409 wins, for legacy. And cowardice: for being more afraid for oneself than for the innocent, for being more afraid of losing friendships and influence than doing what was right, for fear of being found out that your brand was a sham all along.

So go home, Paterno & Co. And go home, you irrational mob of Paterno acolytes who think a game is more important than anything else. Just go home, sit, and quietly ponder what it means to be human.

Maybe that’s good advice for all of us.

A lot of people think it’s a shame he’s going out like this, and I guess it is in a way. The man’s been coaching since the Spanish-American War. On the other hand, he was told that someone had been caught in the shower abusing a ten year old boy and never thought to call the cops. I’d say he earned this one.

As I said on the Twitters the other day, the order of people (in my opinion) in which they deserve our sympathy is as follows: 1 – the victims; 2 – the victims’ families; 500,000,000 – Joe Pa.

Look for updates throughout the day.

So let’s get together and make fun of Michigan and Michigan State!

Update (1:15 PM) – So there’s a quarterback controversy brewing in Michigan? Can you really be a Heisman candidate if someone is taking over your position while you’re still on the field?

Update (2:48) – Why can’t Chris Spielman do every game I watch? I could listen to him all day long. I also love when he struggles to hide his contempt for anything Michigan.

Feel free to chime in on anything that suits your fancy this fine Saturday of College Football.

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