Buckeye Great Orlando Pace Joins College Football Hall Of Fame

The 2013 class of the College Football Hall of Fame was officially announced today and it includes some of the most dominant players the game has ever seen. QBs Vinny Testaverde, Danny Wuerffel, and Tommy Frazier were a combined 101-12-1 in their college careers. Ron Dayne rushed for over 7000 yards including bowl games, but even his NCAA official number of 6,397 is the best of all time. The class also features the great Tedy Bruschi.

But easily the most illustrious member of the 2013 class is our own Orlando Pace, the man who redefined offensive line play and launched the greatest Heisman campaign known to man:

In addition to his gridiron, acting and kitchen skills, Pace also played some hoops in high school. You already know how well-decorated he was in his college career, but let’s review anyway: two-time first team All-American, two-time Lombardi trophy winner (still the only player to win twice), 1996 Heisman finalist as an offensive lineman (which is probably impossible today) and did not allow a sack in his final two years as a Buckeye.

I don’t think I’m being hyperbolic when I say that one day there should be a national trophy named for this man, as dominant as a player could possibly be at a crucial but thankless position. When you can get the enormous fanbase of a traditional powerhouse loaded with skill position talent to cheer for line play, then you are indeed a special kind of player.

Congrats, Mr. Pace. No one deserves this more.

The Night Time Is The Right Time

ABC/ESPN recently made selections for their portion of the 2013 Big Ten night game schedule, and not surprisingly, the Buckeyes will be featured prominently.

Urban Meyer wanted more games under the lights at the Shoe for recruiting purposes, and the Worldwide Leader In Doing What Urban Meyer Wants obliged. Ohio State will host two night games on Disney channels this season (Wisconsin on 9/28 and Penn State on 10/26) as well as a road game against Northwestern (10/5).

In addition, the Big Ten Network will most likely want to feature Ohio State at night as well, although the options are limited. Iowa’s visit on 10/19 is the most likely target and would result in four straight night games for the Bucks. Perhaps they’ll take a stab at something from the non-conference slate, but with the Cal game on the road (and therefore unavailable to BTN), there isn’t an obvious competitive matchup (although, you never know).

And then there’s the November portion of the schedule. There seems to be some confusion as to whether or not there is an actual policy against November night games in the Big Ten, but the “not” link is from this year and quotes Delany as being “supportive” of the idea.

Personally, I would 100% support moving The Game to a permanent prime-time slot, although to be perfectly honest, I wish every game could be at night.

Legends and Leaders, R.I.P.

While the university presidents still have to vote, the new Big Ten division alignment starting in 2014 is being widely reported as official. Gone are the confusing alignment (which never really achieved the competitive balance it was designed for) and the arrogant-sounding division names (which never really gained even the minimal acceptance Jim Delany thinks they did).

Instead, the divisions will be called the “East” and the “West,” and will be made of the eastern-most teams (East) and the western-most teams (West). I know it sounds crazy, but it just might work. Oh, and this might surprise you: The Big Ten will actually be the only conference with geographically-named divisions that adheres completely to the division names. Conference USA comes close, though.

But let’s stop wasting time. The single most important result of this realignment is that Ohio State and Michigan will be in the same division. This means we no longer have to worry about that looming threat of moving The Game to an earlier point in the season, nor the tempting-but-ultimately-terrible prospect of a repeat edition in the B1G title game. (Well, technically we have to worry about that one for one more season.)

So with Ohio State/Michigan as the annual East season-ending showdown (often, one assumes, with a B1GCG appearance on the line), it would be silly for the conference to not attempt to stage a similar battle on the other side. Nebraska/Wisconsin makes the most sense to me at this time, although Iowa could potentially be in that mix if they ever hired a coach that tried a little bit.

Spring Storylines: Searching For Percy Harvin

Versatility is why the Urban Meyer offense works. A mobile quarterback takes away the defensive mathematical advantage by forcing teams to account for all 11 players. Read option plays shift that advantage to the offense by eliminating at least one defender without physically blocking him. The result of all of this is space, and Meyer’s goal is to fill that space with an offensive player and the ball.

Of course, that’s not enough for Meyer, so he tries to make sure that player is one of his fastest and most elusive. With a running start and some shifty moves, he can turn space into points in a hurry. No player was better at this than Percy Harvin, the dynamic Florida star who played a hybrid position Meyer refers to as simply “offensive skill,” lining up at receiver, running back and even quarterback at times.

Without the benefit of a full off-season to recruit, Meyer had to find someone to re-purpose for this role in 2012. Fortunately for him, running back Jordan Hall was up to the task and was by all accounts progressing very nicely in the system before suffering a freak foot injury that eventually forced him to redshirt.

To say that Meyer was despondent at the loss of Hall is an understatement. He was so visibly depressed about it, that I began to think we weren’t going to win a game all year. While receiver Corey Brown was tried out at the spot, the whole concept was essentially abandoned in favor of the Miller/Hyde ground attack. With no Hall, Meyer knew he simply didn’t have the personnel to implement the Harvin package. This year’s recruiting class is a testament to his desire to make sure that this is never a problem again.

None of the freshman Offensive Skill candidates enrolled early, so Hall and Brown should be the go-to guys here in the spring. I fully expect Hall to lock down this job and be the hybrid starter in the fall. However, Meyer didn’t go after those youngsters for nothing, and he will want to use any garbage time we may have in 2013 to fast-track some of them for the future.

The Harvin-esque newbies include Middletown star Jalin Marshall, DeSoto (TX)’s Dontre Wilson, Florida speedster James Clark, and Ezekiel Elliott of Missouri. Rest assured that all of these kids know what is expected of them. In fact, Wilson says that Meyer exclusively used Harvin highlights during recruiting.

In retrospect, it may be end up being a blessing that Meyer couldn’t install this piece of the offense in 2012. Okay, so going undefeated makes that an easy claim to make, but it forced the staff to focus on the power run game and allowed them to assess where Miller needs to grow.

Adding the Offensive Skill position back into the rotation now only puts more pressure on defenses who probably still won’t be ready to deal with what Miller and Hyde (and a more experienced supporting cast) are going to do to them. Throw in some rumored new wrinkles (Meyer is reportedly enamored with the 49ers’ pistol inside zone) and the 2013 iteration of the ever-evolving Urban Meyer offense could be truly amazing to watch.

B1G Newbies: Darrell Hazell

From the moment Brady Hoke accepted the Michigan job, Danny Hope’s days at Purdue were numbered. Hoke, as you have probably noticed, has a severe mental condition which causes him to confuse similarly named things. Doctors believe this condition is responsible for his insistence that Ohio University is the Wolverines’ arch-rival (Fig. 1) and even his marriage to Laura Homberger (Fig. 2). So, even if Hope hadn’t failed on the field, Hoke would have eventually called for his removal after showing up at the wrong campus one too many times.

Thinking Hoke OhioThinking Hoke Burger

There was a moment in 2012 where Hope might have actually had a chance to still be around in 2013. As you remember, the 3-3 Boilermakers were up 8 on the Buckeyes with less than a minute remaining in the game. Star QB Braxton Miller was on his way to the hospital and no doubt Hope had turned to imagining the celebratory Sunday headlines, unaware that he was about to get smooth-jazzed out of a job.

So now former Tressel assistant Darrell Hazell takes the reigns and if you thought Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen was inexperienced, then Hazell is like a coaching newborn. With just two years at Kent State under his belt, it’s nearly impossible to guess what Hazell will bring to the Boilers. His two primary assistants (OC John Shoop and DC Greg Hudson) have shown an ability to improve their respective sides of the ball at previous stops, so that’s a good sign. In addition, Hazell has consulted with former Purdue QBs Kyle Orton and Drew Brees, so it’s likely that we’ll see the pass-happy basketball on grass style of offense that most of us associate with good Purdue teams.

That’s all well and good, but the spot of interest for Buckeye fans on Hazell’s staff is at offensive line, where the B1G will witness the return of the Wal–wait, no way, you’re kidding… he didn’t just say what I think he did, did he?

The Walrus Is Back

For some reason, Hazell has snagged Jim Bollman from Boston College to coach his offensive line. I’m assuming the buyout for Bollman was a bag of magic beans. While Bollman won’t be involved in play-calling for Purdue, he will be expected to actually coach the offensive line. To block defenders. You don’t really need me to tell you how bad he is at this specific task, for which he has been collecting paychecks nearly as long as I’ve been alive, but I’m going to anyway. Last year, as the OL coach for Boston College, he turned in a unit that ranked near the bottom of the country in the two major statistics that signal offensive line strength: rushing offense and sacks allowed. BC averaged 91 yards per game on the ground, good for #119 (out of 124). On top of that, they gave up 34 sacks (#102), nearly 3 per game (#106).

UPDATE: Bollman has been hired by Michigan State head coach (and former OSU defensive coordinator) Mark Dantonio to serve as the Spartans’ OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR. The Walrus has somehow managed to do absolutely nothing and get a better job for it. His mere existence forces me to question the very nature of our universe.

Still, I have high hopes for Hazell at Purdue. Bollman’s firing is an inevitability and I’d put the over/under for that one at First Day Of Spring Ball. Shoop and Hudson will get things moving in the right direction and as long as Hazell gets enough time to build the team he wants, he’ll have the Boilers threatening for B1G titles eventually.

Ridiculously Early And Entirely Baseless Prediction for 2013: 4-8 (Losses to Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State)

B1G Newbies: Gary Andersen

Not long after Wisconsin humiliated Nebraska in last season’s Big Ten Championship Game, head coach Bret Bielema announced he was leaving the school for the same position at Arkansas, a shocking move when you consider how much success Bielema had with the Badgers. But our good buddy Bert was getting his scowl in a bunch over his inability to retain assistant coaches due to, as he tells it, Wisconsin’s tight purse strings. To be fair, his staff had just been raided by Pittsburgh’s Paul Chryst, so maybe he had a point.

Then again, Nick Saban has won three national titles in the past four years. How many assistants from his 2009 staff were still on board in 2012? Three.

So shut up, you big baby.

Bielema_crying

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncharacteristically, Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez had the good sense (desperation?) to consult Urban Meyer and replaced the insufferable Bielema with probably way more sufferable Utah State head coach (and former Meyer assistant) Gary Andersen, hot off an 11-2 season that included a WAC championship and a 2-point loss at Camp Randall.

Andersen is undoubtedly Utah State’s best coach ever, leading the team to their first double-digit win season and amassing 26 wins in four years. That doesn’t sound like much to Buckeye fans, but the Aggies had won just 9 in the four seasons prior to Andersen’s arrival. In 2011 and 2012, the team finished above .500 in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1980. They hadn’t even had a single winning season since 1996. In case you can’t fathom how long ago that was, this was the #1 song back then.

It’s tempting to think that Andersen might install some of Meyer’s read option concepts, but don’t bet on it. Alvarez has made it perfectly clear that Badgers coaches are expected to pattern their offensive philosophy after his own and so far, it’s been a successful formula. It’s also worth noting that Andersen is not really primarily from the “Meyer tree” as is generally implied. He spent six years on Utah’s staff under coach Ron McBride before moving on to the head job at Southern Utah when Meyer took over the Utes. Andersen returned to Utah for the magical 2004 season and remained on the staff under Kyle Whittingham after Meyer left for Florida. While he’s certainly not a stranger to the inner workings of Meyer’s offense, he’s not exactly a disciple either.

My biggest question with Andersen is whether he’s ready to lead a top program. While Ohio State and Michigan seemed poised to once again become the Big Two, there is still room at the top for a team like Wisconsin, especially if the rumored geographical division alignment separates the Badgers from both of those teams. (And there’s always the chance that Brady Hoke is as lousy of a coach as I think he is.) Andersen’s resume consists entirely of last season. Three of his five seasons ended with just four wins. Compared to the career trajectories of the most successful coaches in the BCS era, Andersen is severely lacking in the experience department. Even Meyer’s meteoric rise included pushing two programs (quickly) beyond their expectations.

Maybe that’s not what Wisconsin’s looking for. Maybe they don’t need their coach to be Urban Meyer (or Saban, Miles, Carroll, Brown, etc.). But wouldn’t they want that? Bielema–as clownish and douchey as he was–had the Badgers on the doorstep of greatness. And ultimately, it’s his fault that they will now take a step back. His blindside departure left Alvarez scrambling for a suitable replacement. I mean, he called the Ohio State head coach for help. This was not a coaching search that was going smoothly. Regardless of the official word, I would bet a million of these that Boise State’s Chris Petersen was offered this job.

But hey, maybe Andersen will pan out. If Wisconsin doesn’t immediately turn on him for not piling up wins right out of the gate, he could end up being a good fit for the Alvarez Mini-Me System.

Ridiculously Early And Entirely Baseless Prediction for 2013: 6-6 (Losses to Arizona State, Ohio State, Northwestern, BYU, Iowa, Penn State)

The Spread, Week Eighteen: B1G Finish(ed?)

Tomorrow night, Minnesota opens up the Big Ten bowl season against Texas Tech. No one has much faith in the Gophers, or the rest of the conference for that matter. All seven of the league’s bowl teams are underdogs and that just reflects the absence of top teams Ohio State and Penn State as well as the general (correct) perception that the conference just wasn’t that good this year.

But I thought it might be interesting to look at how this bowl season would have been different if there no were no sanctions in place for the Buckeyes or the Nittany Lions. I don’t mean to add fuel to your What-Might-Have-Been fire, but what else is there talk about? Cincinnati vs. Duke?

THE BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Notre Dame

Yes, this is exactly what would have happened. Don’t let anyone tell you different. Ohio State would have been on top due to being ranked higher in the pre-season. There is no reason for Notre Dame to have jumped the Buckeyes throughout the year as both teams had close calls and ugly wins. As for the Bama aPAWLogists, sorry, but there’s no way the last two remaining AQ unbeatens don’t play for the title. You’ll never convince me otherwise.

THE ROSE BOWL

Nebraska vs. Stanford

I’m not sure that the Rose has to take the #2 Big Ten team in this situation (if anyone can verify, it would be appreciated), but I’m pretty sure they would. Penn State was an option here, but both their conference and overall records are worse than the Huskers, so I don’t think they’d be the pick here.

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

Penn State vs. Georgia

Michigan and Penn State are pretty much interchangeable for this spot. They both lost to the same teams in-conference and no common-opponent comparison favors either team significantly. You could argue that Michigan’s schedule earns them this bid, but Penn State was playing better at the end of the year. Also, Michigan sucks.

OUTBACK BOWL

Michigan vs. South Carolina

GATOR BOWL

Northwestern vs. Mississippi State

These two line up just as they did in real life, so maybe my taunting of the Wolverine fans I know was uncalled for. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA. That’s never true.

BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL

Wisconsin vs. TCU

Bret Bielema always looks like he just drank a tub of Blazin’ sauce anyway, so maybe if this had been the Badgers’ bowl, he would’ve hung around. Thankfully, we’ll never know. I’m sure the Frogs would have enjoyed beating Wisky in a bowl again though.

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL

Michigan State vs. Texas Tech

This would have been a far better match up for the conference, as the Spartans are more equipped to defend Tech’s passing game and attack them on the ground than Minnesota is.

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL

Purdue vs. Oklahoma State

Another that works out the same as in real life. So a loss.

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL

Minnesota vs. Central Michigan

If you watched Western Kentucky play in (and almost win) their first bowl game ever last night, you probably need to look into getting some other hobbies. You probably also didn’t think about how they wouldn’t be there if not for the transgressions of Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel, et al. Unless ESPN brought that up. They probably did.

So there you have it. How do you think the B1G would have fared this bowl season if this was the slate? How do think we’re going to do for real? Approximately how much alcohol would an average human need to consume to watch all seven Big Ten bowl games in their entireties (assuming he had the technology to do so)?

The Spread, Week Seventeen: The Case Against Alabama

On January 7th, 2013, if we we’re still here, Alabama will take on Notre Dame for the national title in the only post-season game that matters. It may be the most David/Goliath title game the BCS has ever cranked out: last year’s champion towering over a scrappy independent that wasn’t even ranked in most reasonable pre-season polls. Notre Dame also happens to be the most popular team among casual college football fans, which is probably 90% of why the rest of us can’t stand them.

It’s been a long time since Notre Dame won a national championship in football. So long that there wasn’t even a BCS the last time they were on top. In fact, there was no such thing as Sun Belt football, Big East football, Conference USA or the Mountain West. So if you know a Notre Dame fan, they are going to be incredibly insufferable should the Irish pull off the upset.

And it will be an upset, because as soon as the matchup was announced, Bama was installed as a 9 point favorite, despite being the #2 ranked team and owners of the only loss on either team’s record. You know why.

The primary difference between the two teams is on the offensive side of the ball. The Crimson Tide have scored like crazy pretty much all season, finishing 15th in scoring offense. Notre Dame is 75th. But that’s not the whole story.

Alabama has played 13 games, six of them against teams with winning records. In those six games, the Tide average 31.8 ppg, nearly 12 points less than their average against losing teams (43.3). Seven of Notre Dame’s 12 games were against winning teams. Their scoring average is slightly higher (27.6) in those games than in games against losing teams (25.6).

Notre Dame played two teams who won 10 or more games this year and went 2-0 in those games with an average margin of victory of 12 points. Alabama played three such teams, going 2-1 with an average MOV of a single lousy point.

The two teams are virtually dead even in scoring defense, each giving up fewer than 11 points per game. But can you guess who looks significantly better when we dig deeper? Well, I’m going to tell you anyway.

In games against winning teams, Notre Dame maintained their overall average of 10.3 ppg. They gave up 10.4 to losing teams. On the other hand, Alabama allowed more than twice as many points to winning teams (15.8) as they did to losing teams (7.3). Against 10-win teams, the Irish gave up 13 points in both games, while Bama surrendered 17, 28 and 29.

This trend holds up in most of the other statistical categories (although it’s worth noting that it flips in Bama’s favor in passing offense), suggesting that Alabama could find themselves feeling like that stunned Miami team in 2002 if they take the Irish lightly.

There are some other, intangible factors surrounding this game as well. Brian Kelly has the opportunity to cement his legacy as Notre Dame’s coach, while Nick Saban is staving off rumors of his inevitable second shot at the NFL. For some reason, there is a tendency for teams with “storyline” players to win. Clarett, Tebow, Young… Te’o? Six title games have featured one of the teams from the previous year’s game, but no team has ever won consecutive titles.

And, of course, there’s the whole thing with the world ending tomorrow. Sorry, Bama.

The Spread, Week Sixteen: Bowl Movement

It’s bowl season and maybe that excites you, but I find it pretty anti-climatic. Instead of watching good teams face off week after week with everything on the line in a battle to be the last one standing, we get a giant pile of one-off matchups, most of which we wouldn’t watch if they weren’t the only options.

Arizona vs. Nevada? Toledo vs. Utah State? Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky?

Why?

Sure, come January we get… um… a bunch of Big Ten losses and hopefully a Northern Illinois upset over Florida State (otherwise, that game will be terrible). Kansas State vs. Oregon and Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M should be good, but they don’t mean anything. Alabama vs. Notre Dame for the title is fine, but don’t we deserve better?

Yeah, I know, the playoff is coming and I hate to complain about that, because it’s a great first step. But as progress goes, it’s pretty conservative. If you consider the BCS a two-team playoff, then this new thing adds a single round to that. And it’s become clear that the playoff is not the priority for anyone involved. More attention and resources have been directed toward re-structuring the bowl system that surrounds it and inflating conferences until no one even knows who they’re supposed to hate anymore. And then there’s the fact that this first step was designed in a way that makes it impossible to take a second step until 2026.

All to ensure that we get more Air Force vs. Rice. And Iowa State vs. Tulsa. And East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette.

Why not scrap the bowls entirely and replace them with a 32-team extravaganza that would instantly become the sports event of the year? Don’t think there’s enough time for that? If it started this Saturday (just like the bowls do) and allowed 6 days between rounds, the title game would be on January 8, just one day later than currently scheduled.

As for intriguing games on opening weekend, do you think you might tune in to Nebraska @ Oklahoma? (Did I mention my playoff would have its games hosted by the higher-seeded team? Of course it would.) How about Texas @ Stanford or Northwestern @ Clemson? Could the Alvarez-helmed Badgers pull off a shocker at LSU? Can trendy Cinderella pick Northern Illinois off Michigan at home for a shot at Alabama? Or will Rutgers upend the Tide themselves?

Will there be mismatches and blowouts in this playoff? Of course, but they will be blowouts by teams we care about. And there will be some upsets too, because that’s what happens. Why is college football the only sport that has to worry about whether its champion was the “best” team? What does that even mean? Pick any national champion in the BCS era, and you can find someone who will argue convincingly that they weren’t the best team that season. This obsession with the national champ “deserving it” is costing us an entertaining post-season full of exciting games featuring teams that would never play each other otherwise. And every single game would matter.

We could have that every December.

Or do you prefer Minnesota vs. Texas Tech?

The Spread, Week Fifteen: Gone Baby Gone

BYE BYE BERTY

Bret Bielema is leaving Wisconsin for Arkansas and of course this a huge black eye for the Big Ten, because as you know, Bielema was one of our finest coaching minds and the SEC just swiped him right out from under our noses. In his seven years as King of Badgers, Bielema won an astounding 75% of his conference games, produced a Heisman-winning quarterback and guided his team to two BCS national championships.

Oh wait, that was Urban Meyer, some guy who ascended to legendary status at an SEC power before leaving the profession, only to be pulled back in less than a year later by a Big Ten school.

Bielema won 69% of his conference games, produced no Heisman winner and never even won a BCS bowl, let alone a championship (although it should be noted that he played for zero of those).

But yeah, the SEC sure got the best of us.

There’s a lot of speculation as to why Bielema wanted to leave and why Wisconsin let him go without, apparently, much of a fight (it’s been reported that his new salary is not significantly more than his old one). It doesn’t seem that complicated to me.

He wanted out because he’s a gigantic baby who saw years and years of losing to Ohio State and Michigan and (if they can keep Bill O’Brien around until they’re eligible and relevant again) Penn State and never being the Big Dog he always wanted to be. Will he find that in the SEC? No, but at least he’ll have ESPN to make excuses for him there for three years before he gets fired.

Why didn’t Wisconsin fight for him? Because they saw the exact same thing. Bielema has had success in the Big Ten, but he’s not an innovative coaching mind. He’s not going anywhere. If Arkansas wants to win 4-5 conference games a year, lose bowl games and never sniff the playoffs, then they’ve hired the right guy.

Don’t let that 70-31 thrashing of Nebraska fool you. The Huskers’ run defense (#96 nationally!) had already been exposed a few times before the Badgers exploited it in a nothing-to-lose free-for-all. And don’t believe it when ESPN blames Wisconsin’s inevitable poor performance against Stanford (#3 rush defense!) in the Rose Bowl on Bielema’s absence.

And while we watch Urban Meyer rip the Big Ten a new one next season, maybe–if we’re lucky–we’ll get some cutaway shots of Bielema scowling on the sideline as Nick Saban or Les Miles runs up the score on him.

FRAUD UPDATE

With just bowl season remaining, it’s time to see how well the annual Fraud List did this year. Under the rules of this exercise (a major conference team that is undefeated in September but loses at least 5 games on the season), there were only three fraud teams in the nation this year, and they all play in the Big 12.

As I guessed, TCU was one of them, dropping their first game after the List and two more in October alone. The Horned Frogs contributed to West Virginia’s fraud season, a plummet I should have seen coming with the margin of victory shrinking with each passing week in their five-win opening stretch. As you might remember, they then lost their next five. Less predictable was Texas Tech, who seemed to just win or lose with no discernible pattern.

I can’t be too hard on the system this year, since no other team achieved true fraud status, but I am disappointed that West Virginia slipped through the cracks. I will be doing some more research in the off-season in hopes of improving the method for next time.

THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN

This weekend is the Army/Navy game and I have nothing against this rivalry, a college football tradition that transcends the sport itself. That said, it’s not much of a rivalry these days, with Navy on a 10-game streak of mostly blowout wins. Army hasn’t won two straight in the series since a 1992-1996 stretch that saw the Black Knights reel off five consecutive victories by a TOTAL of 10 points.

But what else are you going to watch?

The Spread, Week Fourteen: Squeeze Play

EXPANSION IS BACK!

Remember when there was football season and then the off-season? And then there was football season and conference expansion season? Now there’s just constant expansion all the time, regardless of whether or not there are incredibly important games being played.

Maryland and Rutgers joined the Big Ten last week, but I had some crucial HATING to do at the time. Before I could even welcome them, the ACC added Louisville, the Big East added Tulane and East Carolina and Conference USA added some teams dear GOD MAKE IT STOP!!!!!

Expansion used to fun, that’s what I’m saying. Although, maybe “expansion” is the wrong word for it. Sure, the conferences we care about are expanding, but what’s really going in is consolidation. Take a look at the Big East lineup back in 1998, the first season of the BCS era:

Syracuse
Miami
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Boston College
Rutgers
Temple
Pittsburgh

With the exception of Temple, who was booted from the conference in 2004 before returning this season, all of those teams will be in one of the other five so-called BCS conferences in the next few years. What’s really happening is consolidation, and maybe it stops with five conferences. The Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC are as solid as a conference can be right now. The Big 12 has a 13-year Grant of Rights shackling its teams together, and the ACC is prepping to aggressively defend its $50M exit fee as Maryland bolts.

But if the ACC loses, Florida State (the other school that voted against the exit fee) may get out before the conference becomes the New Big East (In 1998 terms, the 2014 lineup will be 57% ACC, 36% Big East and 7% Conference USA). And who knows what happens from there? The Big Ten may be interested in AAU buddies like Georgia Tech, Virginia and Jim Delany’s alma mater UNC. The SEC might like Virginia Tech and NC State to expand its footprint. And if geography goes completely out the window (and why wouldn’t it?), then four 16-team conferences are just the right size to hold the 1998 “BCS” teams (with a little room left for newbies like TCU and Boise State, or if Notre Dame is done with that independence nonsense).

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES!

Big East of Burden: The ACC’s Louisville and the Big Ten’s Rutgers play in the kind-of Big East championship game, although I don’t really understand or care to understand the logistics of who will win the Big East under various scenarios. Thursday, 7:30pm.

The Last MACtion Hero: Kent State takes on Northern Illinois in a game between two of the MAC’s best offenses and best defenses. GIVE US OUR POINTS!!! Friday, 7:00pm.

Isn’t This Where We Came In?: UCLA at Stanford will play for the second time in six days because I guess this is baseball or something. Friday, 8:00pm.

Why You Gotta Go and Make Things So Complicated?: There is no Big 12 title game, but Texas at Kansas State and Oklahoma at TCU will serve as the deciding contests for the conference’s BCS bid. Saturday, Noon (OU/TCU) and 8:00pm (UT/KSU).

Automatic for the People: For a while, it looked like the SEC champion might actually not make the BCS title game. “Suckers” – Fate. Alabama and Georgia will face off for a shot at Notre Dame, guaranteeing that 85% of Americans will hate everyone involved in the championship game. Saturday, 4:00pm.

You Wreck Me: Georgia Tech is 6-6 and playing Florida State for a BCS spot and it has nothing to do with sanctions. This conference is so stupid. Saturday, 8:00pm.

I Don’t Belong Here… ‘Cuz I’m A Creep: Brett Bielema’s Wisconsin Badgers beat only the worst teams in a not-that-good Big Ten and lost to both of the ineligible Leaders teams. Nevertheless, Nebraska only beat them by 3 the first time, so it might be a good game. And by “good” I mean “televised.” Saturday, 8:00pm.

The Spread, HATE WEEK: HATE.

If this was any other week, I would spend most of this post talking about today’s addition of Maryland to the Big Ten and the rumored addition of Rutgers supposedly coming tomorrow. I would then discuss the shocking upsets of this past weekend that essentially guaranteed at least one SEC team will be playing for the national title. Then I would make jokes about games that I’ll end up watching anyway.

But this is HATE WEEK. And HATE WEEK is for the HATE.

Some people don’t understand the HATE. They say things like, “I want both teams to be good when they play!” and “I don’t like them, but I respect them!” and “Durrrrrrrrrrr!” These people cheered for Michigan to beat Alabama, because they have fallen for the media-driven conference-unity narrative that has completely consumed the SEC. Does it make sense that a Mississippi State fan would ridicule an Ohio State fan because the Buckeyes lost a bowl game to Florida? Does it make sense that a Mississippi State fan would ridicule an Ohio State fan for any reason?

But cheering for M!c#!g@n? I’d rather be the one team shut out of a 123-team playoff than cheer for M!c#!g@n to “help boost our strength of schedule.” I want them to be 0-11 every year when we play. I want to see about a hundred more of these! Every three years, I want them to fire their coach the day after The Game.

And speaking of coaches…

There really couldn’t be a better M!c#!g@n coach for Ohio State fans. He’s a walking punchline. Are fat jokes cheap and sophomoric? Yes, but all is forgiven because Hoke set himself up for every single one of them a long time ago and not just by promising to never not super-size. But by doing this:

That’s right, Hoke married a Homberger. Say it out loud. Say it in your best Hoke voice. Never stop laughing. But, more importantly, never stop HATING.

 

Don’t Let The Door Hit You, Penn State

So for the past couple days, the professional journalists at PennLive have been whining virtually non-stop about some supposed Big Ten conspiracy against them. This is centered mostly around officiating (no-calls, botched replays, etc.) and has culminated in this piece of brilliance suggesting the school leave the conference for the ACC.

I really hope they do.

But first, let’s talk about that “conspiracy.” If there was a plot to make Penn State lose games through purposefully shoddy officiating, it would actually be amazingly simple to detect. Penalty statistics are readily available (we here at MOTSAG prefer cfbstats.com but we’re not trying to tell you what to do) and all one would have to do is compare penalties and yardage for each team and those of their opponents to see if there is a noticeable imbalance.

So I did. I calculated the percentages of total penalties and penalty yardage each team received in all games. This sounds harder than it was; it literally took me four minutes. Apparently, no one at PennLive has four minutes to spare while pounding out yet another Completely-Missing-The-Point post about how sorry we should feel for them.

Now, conspiracies aren’t easy to pull off perfectly, but it would make sense that if Penn State was being treated unfairly that they would at least be in the bottom 3 of the Big Ten in Officiating Equality (me? oh, just inventing new stats. whatchu doin’?)  and probably, say, the bottom 25 nationally, right?

But of course, they’re not.

Six Big Ten teams have been less fairly treated by the refs than Penn State this year. Six. Out of eleven. Nationally, the Nittany Lions come in at #66 (of 124). That’s right. They’re actually on the winning side of officiating imbalance both in the conference and in the nation! Granted, I can’t easily account for botched replays, but those are at least somewhat subjective and heavily reliant on the call on the field.

There is simply no officiating conspiracy against Penn State. There’s not even a subconscious bias, as others who want to whine but still want to sound like reasonable human beings have suggested. Penn State is getting a pretty average officiating treatment this year. I know that’s hard for Nittany Lion fans to hear. That’s no fun.

Making absurdly childish threats is fun.

So go ahead and move to the ACC (where six teams have been less fairly treated than Penn State so far this year too). That would allow the Big Ten to add Notre Dame or Oklahoma without splitting up the pie any further. Oh yeah, that pie? They don’t have that kind in the ACC. The financial hit would only further hurt your program on top of the NCAA sanctionbomb you haven’t even truly felt yet.

That is, of course, if the ACC even wants Penn State. And really, why would they?

The Spread, Week Twelve: Bye Part II

THE JOY OF BEING WRONG AND THE SHAMEFUL TRUTH ABOUT ALABAMA

Yeah, I hate the SEC. I’m sick of the incessant spin they get from ESPN and the most of the rest of the sports media. They have some good teams, and most years they have at least one great team. But so do all the other major conferences most years. They also, like all conferences, have some awful teams. This season, in fact, there are three SEC teams who have yet to win a conference game and three more who won just two. It’s the exact same mediocrity you’ll find in every single conference.

Alabama just lost their first game of the year, to SEC newcomer Texas A&M, suggesting that perhaps the conference isn’t so impenetrable after all. And while no one was really predicting it (and I mocked the mere thought of it last week), in retrospect this shouldn’t surprise us all that much.

Bama has beaten no one of consequence in the SEC outside of LSU, who had them against the ropes until a miracle game-winning drive. The best SEC team they’ve beaten impressively is Mississippi State, who is currently fourth in the SEC West at 3-3. They have not faced any of the top four teams from the East. Their next two opponents are Western Carolina and Auburn and then (barring upset by one of those miserable teams) Georgia in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs don’t have a much better resume than the Tide, by the way, so any discussion of the SEC winner still making the BCS title game is simply absurd, unless you’re willing to admit that the entire system is complete sham (which it is, of course).

But if Bama can lose, then anyone can, right? Well, yes, of course anyone can lose, but my point is Bama should not be your guidepost. Oregon has already beaten numbers 2, 3 & 4 in the Pac-12 South by a combined 82 points. They still have to take on numbers 2 and 3 in their own division, but how worried are you, really? The Big 12 does not have divisions any more, but Kansas State has just the #3 and #9 teams in the conference left, with the toughest of those at home. They did struggle with #2 Oklahoma, but there’s a big dropoff from the Sooners to the Longhorns (63-21, anyone?). Notre Dame, of course, does not play in a conference at all, but they have already beaten four teams who are currently in first or second place in their own divisions/conferences. The truth is, based on what the teams had already accomplished, Alabama shouldn’t have been the #1 team even before their loss and they absolutely don’t deserve first consideration if the season ends with fewer than two unbeatens.

So that’s it, Alabama, you had your benefit of the doubt and you blew it.

Bye.

WELCOME BACK, FOOTBALL

WEDNESDAY

It’s MACtion time, and although I’m not as enamored with the conference as others, the Little Brother League is offering up a few good games this week, beginning with Ohio/Ball State at 7:00 on ESPNU and then the West division title match between Toledo and Northern Illinois at 8:00 on ESPN2.

SATURDAY

The MAC East division title match between Kent State and Bowling Green kicks off at noon on that small standard definition TV next to the rum on the shelf behind the bar at your nearest BW-3. Don’t put your good games on Saturday, MAC, it frightens and confuses us.

Rutgers @ Cincinnati is to a good college football game what the Big East is to college football in general.

Western Carolina @ Alabama. I mean, that would just be SOOO awesome, right?

USC @ UCLA will determine the Pac-12 South and therefore which team Oregon will score 60 points on in a couple of weeks. Tune in to see if the Trojans try to toss airless footballs around like frisbees without getting caught.

Duke @ Georgia Tech could actually have an impact on a conference championship race and therefore a BCS game. It could? What is happening in the ACC?

Stanford @ Oregon. I really don’t feel like the outcome is in doubt, but it’s the best game featuring a National Title contender this week, so we might as well watch it, at least until the Ducks are up by four scores.

The Spread, Week Eleven: Bye

It’s the bye week, so there’s no game this weekend. And I’m not just talking about Ohio State. There’s not a single compelling game anywhere in the nation. Sure, by Sunday something may have happened that could shake things up, but it’s going to be an upset or an injury or an equipment manager with delusions of grandeur.

You could argue that Northwestern/Michigan and Penn State/Nebraska are meaningful, but they’re not. Nebraska already owns the relevant tie-breakers and Penn State is the only team left on the schedule that can beat the Huskers. If you want to point out that the Wolverines could still win the division with a Brasky loss, you’d also have to admit that that would mean they win in the Shoe. And you don’t want to do that, right?

Syracuse, Texas A&M, TCU, Boston College, California.

Those are the opponents for the five unbeatens in action this weekend. They’re a combined 22-24. Which one do you think is going to shock the world? That’s right. None of them.

You could watch the Carrier Classic featuring the Buckeyes tomorrow night if you have something called the NBC Sports Network. I don’t. I don’t even know what that is.

So until next week, bye.