Comments on: Why OSU will beat UM http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/ An Ohio Sports Blog Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:38:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Bobster http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-597 Bobster Thu, 16 Nov 2006 23:19:04 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-597 I just hope it is a good game. I don't want referee mistakes to make a difference, I don't want weather to be a factor, I don't want it to be a total blow out. I also want OSU to win!!!!! I just hope it is a good game. I don’t want referee mistakes to make a difference, I don’t want weather to be a factor, I don’t want it to be a total blow out.

I also want OSU to win!!!!!

]]> By: Men of the Scarlet and Gray » Blog Archive » Battle of the Blogs http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-593 Men of the Scarlet and Gray » Blog Archive » Battle of the Blogs Thu, 16 Nov 2006 20:39:53 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-593 [...] Today’s discussion: Today’s topic features our post, which answers the question, “Who wins: Ohio State O or Michigan D?” (Interesting side note, but originally the question was “Who wins: Ohio State O or Rutgers D”. Was CSTV being snarky, prescient, or did they just make a mistake? You decide). Anyway, we fellow bloggers presented our arguments (many of which you can find in this post) for why OSU’s offense should be able to give the business to Michigan’s D. The counterpoint comes from Dave of Maize and Brew. While Dave’s description of some of the Michigan personnel may be a bit … hyperbolic … he does a good job of looking at matchups. He mentions using “Pat White” as a fullback, but I think he means “Stan White Jr,” whom he refers to later. Overall, minus the prediction of a Michigan victory, Dave makes some valid points. Advantage: Do we even have to ask? [...] [...] Today’s discussion: Today’s topic features our post, which answers the question, “Who wins: Ohio State O or Michigan D?” (Interesting side note, but originally the question was “Who wins: Ohio State O or Rutgers D”. Was CSTV being snarky, prescient, or did they just make a mistake? You decide). Anyway, we fellow bloggers presented our arguments (many of which you can find in this post) for why OSU’s offense should be able to give the business to Michigan’s D. The counterpoint comes from Dave of Maize and Brew. While Dave’s description of some of the Michigan personnel may be a bit … hyperbolic … he does a good job of looking at matchups. He mentions using “Pat White” as a fullback, but I think he means “Stan White Jr,” whom he refers to later. Overall, minus the prediction of a Michigan victory, Dave makes some valid points. Advantage: Do we even have to ask? [...]

]]> By: AF http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-589 AF Thu, 16 Nov 2006 15:07:03 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-589 Monkey, You're really digging if you are going to try and use the Ball State game as a reference. First of all, the Michigan D didn't give up 26 points in that game. They have up 17 and the safety and INT returned for a TD were the other 9 points. Second of all, it DOES matter that there were subs in. Unless of course you expect OSU and UM to play their 2nd and 3rd teamers on Saturday. Then the fact that the OSU subs have performed better may make a difference. Monkey,

You’re really digging if you are going to try and use the Ball State game as a reference.

First of all, the Michigan D didn’t give up 26 points in that game. They have up 17 and the safety and INT returned for a TD were the other 9 points.

Second of all, it DOES matter that there were subs in. Unless of course you expect OSU and UM to play their 2nd and 3rd teamers on Saturday. Then the fact that the OSU subs have performed better may make a difference.

]]> By: Zeke http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-583 Zeke Wed, 15 Nov 2006 21:54:37 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-583 For clarification: The 4-6 (Carr) and 9-2 (Tressel) records include games versus top ten teams and OSU/Michigan (who were not necessarily ranked in the top ten when the game was played). Really, I just wanted to put those stats side by side again so I can admire the domination. For clarification:

The 4-6 (Carr) and 9-2 (Tressel) records include games versus top ten teams and OSU/Michigan (who were not necessarily ranked in the top ten when the game was played).

Really, I just wanted to put those stats side by side again so I can admire the domination.

]]> By: Zeke http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-582 Zeke Wed, 15 Nov 2006 21:44:17 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-582 Monkey, you are stomping these UM supporters just like the buckeys will be doing on Saturday. Way to defend our home turf. Who cares if Llyod started 10-0 in games against top ten teams. What have you done for me lately? Answer: 4-6 in the last five years (as previuosly pointed out). AF, since you asked, Tressel is 9-2 agianst top ten teams over the same period. Monkey, you are stomping these UM supporters just like the buckeys will be doing on Saturday. Way to defend our home turf.

Who cares if Llyod started 10-0 in games against top ten teams. What have you done for me lately? Answer: 4-6 in the last five years (as previuosly pointed out).

AF, since you asked, Tressel is 9-2 agianst top ten teams over the same period.

]]> By: James http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-581 James Wed, 15 Nov 2006 21:34:33 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-581 "First, The Wolverines’ defense has not been spread out all season long. It has not faced a single spread offense" WTF are you talking about? Michigan has played no less than SIX spread offenses - Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ball State, and Indiana. If you want to argue that UM hasn't faced a spread offense with OSU's talent, I can buy that, but that doesn't seem to be what you were saying. Also - the poster above is wrong. Carr is 16-6 against teams ranked in the top ten at the time of the game. “First, The Wolverines’ defense has not been spread out all season long. It has not faced a single spread offense”

WTF are you talking about? Michigan has played no less than SIX spread offenses – Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ball State, and Indiana. If you want to argue that UM hasn’t faced a spread offense with OSU’s talent, I can buy that, but that doesn’t seem to be what you were saying.

Also – the poster above is wrong. Carr is 16-6 against teams ranked in the top ten at the time of the game.

]]> By: Michigan Dan http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-580 Michigan Dan Wed, 15 Nov 2006 21:06:46 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-580 AF, good points all. Let's face it, Tressel is a great coach, and the reason the Bucks have been living large recently. In fact, if OSU wins this year, it will be a Tressel move that gets it done. It this all unfolds mano a mano on the field, Michigan wants it more and has the horses to take it. AF, good points all. Let’s face it, Tressel is a great coach, and the reason the Bucks have been living large recently. In fact, if OSU wins this year, it will be a Tressel move that gets it done. It this all unfolds mano a mano on the field, Michigan wants it more and has the horses to take it.

]]> By: AF http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-578 AF Wed, 15 Nov 2006 20:20:08 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-578 Eric, Thanks for finding the stat for me. I had to look it up myself and apparently I missed a couple of games. SportsMonkey, looks like I wasn't that far off. I know that 16-6 isn't quite as impressive as 15-5, but it still means Lloyd wins 72% of the time. Does THAT count as a big game coach? Im not saying that Carr has an edge over Tressel, or vice versa, but it seems to me that both coaches know how to win a big game. Im not sure what Tressel's percentage is in games against Top Ten teams, but I am sure its very high. Probably very similar to the 10-0 start Carr had. Eric,
Thanks for finding the stat for me. I had to look it up myself and apparently I missed a couple of games.

SportsMonkey, looks like I wasn’t that far off. I know that 16-6 isn’t quite as impressive as 15-5, but it still means Lloyd wins 72% of the time. Does THAT count as a big game coach?

Im not saying that Carr has an edge over Tressel, or vice versa, but it seems to me that both coaches know how to win a big game.

Im not sure what Tressel’s percentage is in games against Top Ten teams, but I am sure its very high. Probably very similar to the 10-0 start Carr had.

]]> By: sportsMonkey http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-576 sportsMonkey Wed, 15 Nov 2006 19:56:57 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-576 Eric: Thanks for the link. There's some confusion between USA Today's numbers and those elsewhere (including the UM site). After digging, I calculated that against top 10 teams, Carr is 13-7. Almost all of those came in 96-99. From 2000 on, Carr is 4-6. Michigan Dan - The NCAA ranking is the aberrant ranking of the bunch. All other SOS rankings (including the ones the BCS uses) have UM down near 30. (Sagarin has them at 27). http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt06.htm Moreover, even though OSU is 48th and UM is 27th, they're numerical difference is 70.66 and 73.09. In other words, for all intents and purposes, pretty close. This means two things: (1) that UM's opponents' opponents have slightly better records than OSU's opponents' opponents. (Most of that comes from the crappy teams that Texas played against), and (2) UM has two away games against top 10 opponents this year (ND and OSU), while OSU splits it's top 10 games home (UM) and away (Texas). Hopefully, you see the fallacy of using SOS to predict victory. Just because your SOS is higher because you travel to OSU on Saturday, doesn't mean that it is <em>more</em> likely you will win that game. I'll lower myself to throw in this final shot: if the "mighty" UM defense can give up 300 yards and 26 points to Ball State, I think OSU can do the same or better. (And don't complain about how "our backups were in." OSU's been playing backups from the second/third series of every game this year, and didn't give up that many points.) Eric: Thanks for the link. There’s some confusion between USA Today’s numbers and those elsewhere (including the UM site). After digging, I calculated that against top 10 teams, Carr is 13-7. Almost all of those came in 96-99. From 2000 on, Carr is 4-6.

Michigan Dan – The NCAA ranking is the aberrant ranking of the bunch. All other SOS rankings (including the ones the BCS uses) have UM down near 30. (Sagarin has them at 27).
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt06.htm

Moreover, even though OSU is 48th and UM is 27th, they’re numerical difference is 70.66 and 73.09. In other words, for all intents and purposes, pretty close. This means two things:

(1) that UM’s opponents’ opponents have slightly better records than OSU’s opponents’ opponents. (Most of that comes from the crappy teams that Texas played against), and

(2) UM has two away games against top 10 opponents this year (ND and OSU), while OSU splits it’s top 10 games home (UM) and away (Texas).

Hopefully, you see the fallacy of using SOS to predict victory. Just because your SOS is higher because you travel to OSU on Saturday, doesn’t mean that it is more likely you will win that game.

I’ll lower myself to throw in this final shot: if the “mighty” UM defense can give up 300 yards and 26 points to Ball State, I think OSU can do the same or better. (And don’t complain about how “our backups were in.” OSU’s been playing backups from the second/third series of every game this year, and didn’t give up that many points.)

]]> By: sportsMonkey http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/comment-page-1/#comment-574 sportsMonkey Wed, 15 Nov 2006 19:34:49 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/14/why-osu-will-beat-um/#comment-574 Eric: Thanks for the link. There\'s some confusion between USA Today\'s numbers and those elsewhere (including the UM site). After digging, I calculated that against top 10 teams, Carr is 13-7. Almost all of those came in 96-99. From 2000 on, Carr is 4-6. Michigan Dan - The NCAA ranking is the aberrant ranking of the bunch. All other SOS rankings (including the ones the BCS uses) have UM down near 30. (Sagarin has them at 27). http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt06.htm Moreover, even though OSU is 48th and UM is 27th, they\'re numerical difference is 70.66 and 73.09. In other words, for all intents and purposes, pretty close. This means two things: (1) that UM\'s opponents\' opponents have slightly better records than OSU\'s opponents\' opponents. (Most of that comes from the crappy teams that Texas played against), and (2) UM has two away games against top 10 opponents this year (ND and OSU), while OSU splits it\'s top 10 games home (UM) and away (Texas). Hopefully, you see the fallacy of using SOS to predict victory. Just because your SOS is higher because you travel to OSU on Saturday, doesn\'t mean that it is <em>more</em> likely you will win that game. I\'ll lower myself to throw in this final shot: if the \"mighty\" UM defense can give up 300 yards and 26 points to Ball State, I think OSU can do the same or better. (And don\'t complain about how \"our backups were in.\" OSU\'s been playing backups from the second/third series of every game this year, and it\'s never given up that many points.) Eric: Thanks for the link. There\’s some confusion between USA Today\’s numbers and those elsewhere (including the UM site). After digging, I calculated that against top 10 teams, Carr is 13-7. Almost all of those came in 96-99. From 2000 on, Carr is 4-6.

Michigan Dan – The NCAA ranking is the aberrant ranking of the bunch. All other SOS rankings (including the ones the BCS uses) have UM down near 30. (Sagarin has them at 27).
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt06.htm

Moreover, even though OSU is 48th and UM is 27th, they\’re numerical difference is 70.66 and 73.09. In other words, for all intents and purposes, pretty close. This means two things:

(1) that UM\’s opponents\’ opponents have slightly better records than OSU\’s opponents\’ opponents. (Most of that comes from the crappy teams that Texas played against), and

(2) UM has two away games against top 10 opponents this year (ND and OSU), while OSU splits it\’s top 10 games home (UM) and away (Texas).

Hopefully, you see the fallacy of using SOS to predict victory. Just because your SOS is higher because you travel to OSU on Saturday, doesn\’t mean that it is more likely you will win that game.

I\’ll lower myself to throw in this final shot: if the \”mighty\” UM defense can give up 300 yards and 26 points to Ball State, I think OSU can do the same or better. (And don\’t complain about how \”our backups were in.\” OSU\’s been playing backups from the second/third series of every game this year, and it\’s never given up that many points.)

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