Comments on: Why OSU will lose to UM http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/ An Ohio Sports Blog Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:45:51 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: Sport » Blog Archive » Unverified Voracity Thinks We Can Run http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-27271 Sport » Blog Archive » Unverified Voracity Thinks We Can Run Wed, 18 Apr 2007 09:37:43 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-27271 [...] Buckeye Concerns: I didn’t think Troy Smith’s thumb thing was a big deal watching the Northwestern game. Some Buckeye fans are concerened, though. Awash in a sea of bad sports-talk-radio impersonation, Men of the Scarlet and Gray worry(-ies?) thusly: Troy Smith’s thumb. (I don’t care what the “official” line is about his throwing hand being fine. Troy hasn’t been able to throw the deep ball for three weeks now, the same number of weeks he’s had his thumb and wrist taped. He’s underthrowing every deep ball, forcing Ginn to slow down to get under it, effectively removing the weapon that torched OSU’s opponents for the first half of the season.) [...] [...] Buckeye Concerns: I didn’t think Troy Smith’s thumb thing was a big deal watching the Northwestern game. Some Buckeye fans are concerened, though. Awash in a sea of bad sports-talk-radio impersonation, Men of the Scarlet and Gray worry(-ies?) thusly: Troy Smith’s thumb. (I don’t care what the “official” line is about his throwing hand being fine. Troy hasn’t been able to throw the deep ball for three weeks now, the same number of weeks he’s had his thumb and wrist taped. He’s underthrowing every deep ball, forcing Ginn to slow down to get under it, effectively removing the weapon that torched OSU’s opponents for the first half of the season.) [...]

]]> By: Big Worm http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-585 Big Worm Thu, 16 Nov 2006 02:14:32 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-585 Where is the ad hominem? <i>I never said there was a “conspiracy.” </i> True, you just strongly implied it. To wit: <i>it means that when OSU plays another team, the other team “magically” stops committing the penalties it’s been charged with all season long. It’s unfair, but for some reason Big Ten officials tend to ignore offenses committed by OSU’s opponents.</i> <i>The numbers do show that (1) the teams are 50/50 since 1950, and (2) long victory streaks are rare in the rivalry.</i> Just as, if you toss a coin 56 times, it is likely that you will have an outcome that is close to 50/50, and unlikely that you will have a long streak of one side or the other. <i>Therefore, since OSU has had a relatively long streak (4 of the past 5 games), it makes perfect sense why I would list it in among reasons “why UM will win.”</i> No. This simply does not follow. The outcome of the game in 1950 has absolutely no effect on the outcome in 2006. The two are statistically independent. Your conclusion does not follow from your premises, no matter how many "therefores" you put in. Where is the ad hominem?

I never said there was a “conspiracy.”

True, you just strongly implied it. To wit:

it means that when OSU plays another team, the other team “magically” stops committing the penalties it’s been charged with all season long. It’s unfair, but for some reason Big Ten officials tend to ignore offenses committed by OSU’s opponents.

The numbers do show that (1) the teams are 50/50 since 1950, and (2) long victory streaks are rare in the rivalry.

Just as, if you toss a coin 56 times, it is likely that you will have an outcome that is close to 50/50, and unlikely that you will have a long streak of one side or the other.

Therefore, since OSU has had a relatively long streak (4 of the past 5 games), it makes perfect sense why I would list it in among reasons “why UM will win.”

No. This simply does not follow. The outcome of the game in 1950 has absolutely no effect on the outcome in 2006. The two are statistically independent. Your conclusion does not follow from your premises, no matter how many “therefores” you put in.

]]> By: sportsMonkey http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-560 sportsMonkey Wed, 15 Nov 2006 02:00:02 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-560 Big Worm - Engaging in overstatement and ad hominem are logical fallacies. I never said there was a "conspiracy." I pointed out the trend. Simple enough. There could be a multitude of reasons why OSU's opponents don't get caught making penalties... I didn't get into that. All that matters is that there is a trend, and it is relevant to my argument. Putting words in my mouth about "why" the trend exists is nothing more than a way for you to create noise & avoid arguing over whether or not it exists at all. As for your statistical argument, without realizing it you are making my point for me. It isn't about Vegas and black/red (which isn't even relevant, because Vegas roulette isn't 50/50 anyway). The numbers do show that (1) the teams are 50/50 since 1950, and (2) long victory streaks are rare in the rivalry. Therefore, since OSU has had a relatively long streak (4 of the past 5 games), it makes perfect sense why I would list it in among reasons "why UM will win." Again, stop trying to argue over things I never claimed or alleged. Big Worm – Engaging in overstatement and ad hominem are logical fallacies. I never said there was a “conspiracy.” I pointed out the trend. Simple enough. There could be a multitude of reasons why OSU’s opponents don’t get caught making penalties… I didn’t get into that. All that matters is that there is a trend, and it is relevant to my argument. Putting words in my mouth about “why” the trend exists is nothing more than a way for you to create noise & avoid arguing over whether or not it exists at all.

As for your statistical argument, without realizing it you are making my point for me. It isn’t about Vegas and black/red (which isn’t even relevant, because Vegas roulette isn’t 50/50 anyway). The numbers do show that (1) the teams are 50/50 since 1950, and (2) long victory streaks are rare in the rivalry. Therefore, since OSU has had a relatively long streak (4 of the past 5 games), it makes perfect sense why I would list it in among reasons “why UM will win.”

Again, stop trying to argue over things I never claimed or alleged.

]]> By: Big Worm http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-558 Big Worm Wed, 15 Nov 2006 01:33:13 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-558 My error. The far-ranging conspiracy is alleged to work to minimize opponent penalties, not increase OSU's. A thousand pardons. Of course, that doesn't make it any more plausible. Also left unaddressed is your apparent ignorance of statistical independence. If the wheel lands on black 4 times straight, do you put all your money on red because red is "due"? My error. The far-ranging conspiracy is alleged to work to minimize opponent penalties, not increase OSU’s. A thousand pardons. Of course, that doesn’t make it any more plausible.

Also left unaddressed is your apparent ignorance of statistical independence. If the wheel lands on black 4 times straight, do you put all your money on red because red is “due”?

]]> By: sportsMonkey http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-555 sportsMonkey Wed, 15 Nov 2006 00:03:35 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-555 Big Worm - >>“It simply can’t be because OSU commits more penalties - it must be a Big-10 wide conspiracy against the poor Buckeyes! Let’s rule out the most obvious conclusion in favor of one that’s emotionally satisfying!”<< Do you even know what you are talking about? The stat I'm referring to is opponent penalties. As I pointed out in my post, it has nothing to do with the number of penalties OSU commits, only how many penalties are charged against OSU opponents. Sheesh. Here's the link again: <a href="http://cfbstats.com/2006/leader/827/team/defense/split01/category14/sort01.html" rel="nofollow">http://cfbstats.com/2006/leader/827/team/defense/split01/category14/sort01.html</a> And thank you for proving my point about critical thinking, btw. Big Worm –

>>“It simply can’t be because OSU commits more penalties – it must be a Big-10 wide conspiracy against the poor Buckeyes! Let’s rule out the most obvious conclusion in favor of one that’s emotionally satisfying!”< <

Do you even know what you are talking about? The stat I'm referring to is opponent penalties. As I pointed out in my post, it has nothing to do with the number of penalties OSU commits, only how many penalties are charged against OSU opponents.

Sheesh. Here's the link again:
http://cfbstats.com/2006/leader/827/team/defense/split01/category14/sort01.html

And thank you for proving my point about critical thinking, btw.

]]> By: Men of the Scarlet and Gray » Blog Archive » Why OSU will beat UM http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-553 Men of the Scarlet and Gray » Blog Archive » Why OSU will beat UM Tue, 14 Nov 2006 23:48:12 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-553 [...] Earlier this week, we listed some reasons as to why the vomitous pustules from up north could beat OSU. It took me a few days, but I finally got el Kaiser to stop laughing long enough to help compose the counterpoint to that post. If reading “Why UM will prevail” seemed like drinking a foul tasting tequila shot, then reading this post will seem like the sweet, refreshing bite of the lime afterwards. [...] [...] Earlier this week, we listed some reasons as to why the vomitous pustules from up north could beat OSU. It took me a few days, but I finally got el Kaiser to stop laughing long enough to help compose the counterpoint to that post. If reading “Why UM will prevail” seemed like drinking a foul tasting tequila shot, then reading this post will seem like the sweet, refreshing bite of the lime afterwards. [...]

]]> By: Big Worm http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-552 Big Worm Tue, 14 Nov 2006 23:36:16 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-552 <i>This doesn’t mean that OSU commits more penalties, it means that when OSU plays another team, the other team “magically” stops committing the penalties it’s been charged with all season long.</i> You mean the type of critical thinking displayed in this excerpt? "It simply can't be because OSU commits more penalties - it must be a Big-10 wide conspiracy against the poor Buckeyes! Let's rule out the most obvious conclusion in favor of one that's emotionally satisfying!" Or how about this? <i>Statistically, a UM victory is long overdue. The teams are 50/50 over the past 60 years… and Carr is on the short end of a 20/80 ratio against Tressel.</i> And if you flip a coin and get heads three times in a row, you're a fool not to put all your money on tails! Truly, that's the kind of keen analysis and ignorance of basic statistical principles one expects from fans of Fries-With-That University. This doesn’t mean that OSU commits more penalties, it means that when OSU plays another team, the other team “magically” stops committing the penalties it’s been charged with all season long.

You mean the type of critical thinking displayed in this excerpt? “It simply can’t be because OSU commits more penalties – it must be a Big-10 wide conspiracy against the poor Buckeyes! Let’s rule out the most obvious conclusion in favor of one that’s emotionally satisfying!”

Or how about this?

Statistically, a UM victory is long overdue. The teams are 50/50 over the past 60 years… and Carr is on the short end of a 20/80 ratio against Tressel.

And if you flip a coin and get heads three times in a row, you’re a fool not to put all your money on tails!

Truly, that’s the kind of keen analysis and ignorance of basic statistical principles one expects from fans of Fries-With-That University.

]]> By: sportsMonkey http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-546 sportsMonkey Tue, 14 Nov 2006 20:13:19 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-546 Big Worm: How many UM internet boards did you have open when posting that comment? EXCELLENT use of cutting and pasting skills! May I suggest the shortcut CTRL + X (or C), followed by CTRL + V. Saves time, avoids all that pesky critical thinking. Big Worm:

How many UM internet boards did you have open when posting that comment?
EXCELLENT use of cutting and pasting skills! May I suggest the shortcut CTRL + X (or C), followed by CTRL + V. Saves time, avoids all that pesky critical thinking.

]]> By: Big Worm http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/comment-page-1/#comment-545 Big Worm Tue, 14 Nov 2006 19:36:55 +0000 http://menofthescarletandgray.com/2006/11/13/why-osu-will-lose-to-um/#comment-545 Maybe Tressel can buy a few more players to help ensure victory. Maybe Tressel can buy a few more players to help ensure victory.

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